2011 Week 1 Picks

Thursday, September 1

Murray State at Louisville
Villanova at Temple
South Carolina State at Central Michigan
North Texas at FIU
New Hampshire at Toledo
Western Carolina at Georgia Tech
NC Central at Rutgers
Wake Forest at Syracuse
Mississippi State at Memphis
Montana State at Utah

UNLV at Wisconsin
Bowling Green at Idaho
Kentucky vs Western Kentucky at Nashville
UC Davis at Arizona State
Fordham at Connecticut (postponed)



Friday, September 2

Youngstown State at Michigan State
TCU at Baylor



Saturday, September 3

Utah State at Auburn
Northwestern at Boston College
Akron at Ohio State
Indiana State at Penn State
Tennessee Tech at Iowa
MTSU at Purdue
Miami (OH) at Missouri
Kent State at Alabama
Appalachian State at Virginia Tech
South Dakota at Air Force

Minnesota at USC
Louisiana Monroe at Florida State
USF at Notre Dame
Western Michigan at Michigan
James Madison at North Carolina
Chattanooga at Nebraska
Troy at Clemson
UCLA at Houston
Arkansas State at Illinois
Delaware at Navy

SE Louisiana at Tulane
Sacramento State at Oregon State
BYU at Mississippi
San Jose State at Stanford
Idaho State at Washington State
Liberty at NC State
Colorado State at New Mexico
Buffalo at Pitt
William & Mary at Virginia
Montana at Tennessee

Missouri State at Arkansas
Fresno State vs California at San Francisco
FAU at Florida
Northern Iowa at Iowa State
Richmond at Duke
Louisiana Lafayette at Oklahoma State
Eastern Washington at Washington
Indiana vs Ball State at Indianapolis
Charleston Southern at UCF
Austin Peay at Cincinnati

Howard at Eastern Michigan
McNeese State at Kansas
Eastern Kentucky at Kansas State
Army at Northern Illinois
East Carolina vs South Carolina at Charlotte
Texas State at Texas Tech
Elon at Vanderbilt
Boise State vs Georgia at Atlanta
Oregon vs LSU at Arlington
Ohio at New Mexico State

Tulsa at Oklahoma
Rice at Texas
Stony Brook at UTEP
Weber State at Wyoming
Northern Arizona at Arizona
Cal Poly at San Diego State
Louisiana Tech at Southern Miss
Colorado at Hawaii



Sunday, September 4
Marshall at West Virginia
SMU at Texas A&M



Monday, September 5
Miami at Maryland

2011 Preseason Coaches on the Hot Seat

Planned Changes:

* Howard Schnellenberger (FAU) - Howard Schnellenberger has announced he will retire after this season.


Special Cases:

* Everett Withers (North Carolina) - North Carolina unexpectedly fired Butch Davis a month before the season. Davis had his share of compliance issues, but timing was strange. Everett Withers was named the interim coach for the season. The school will likely reopen the coaching search at the end of the season, much like Vanderbilt did last year.

* Luke Fickell (Ohio State) - Luke Fickell was named the head coach after Jim Tressel resigned. Although much like North Carolina, Ohio State might also reopen its coaching search after the season.


The Hottest Seats:

* Mike Locksley (New Mexico) - Mike Locksley continues to be a terrible hire. The Lobos are 2-22 under him, and they need to show improvement in his third year.

* Paul Wulff (Washington State) - Paul Wulff continues to be a terrible hire. I was amazed he survived this past offseason. He'll need a big year to make it to his fifth season.


Getting Warmer:

* Jim Grobe (Wake Forest) - Jim Grobe could be facing some pressure despite all of the good things he's done for the program. He's 8-16 in the past two seasons and his teams have continually gotten worse since the glorious 2006 season. Four teams dropped 48+ points on Wake including Stanford with a high of 68. If he wins less than five games this season, then he'll lose his overall winning record at Wake Forest.

* Turner Gill (Kansas) - Turner Gill had a terrible first year. Coaches are rarely fired after two years, but let's see how his second season turns out.

* Ron Zook (Illinois) - Ron Zook is perpetually on the hot seat. I'm expecting a good season from the Illini, so I bet he'll be back in 2012.

* Steve Fairchild (Colorado State) - Steve Fairchild took the Rams to the New Mexico Bowl in his first season, but has finished 3-9 the past two years. Another bad season will have his seat a lot warmer.

* Mark Richt (Georgia) - I think Mark Richt will be fine, mainly because I think the Bulldogs will be much better. All he needs to do is avoid another bad season.

* Bob Toledo (Tulane) - Bob Toledo has had four straight losing seasons and has an overall record of 13-35 at Tulane. He is in a very difficult situation at Tulane, but another bad season may persuade the administration to go in a different direction.

* Neil Callaway (UAB) - Neil Callaway has had four straight losing seasons. He replaced defensive coordinators in the offseason to shore up the weakest link of the team under his tenure. If new DC Tommy West can't make noted improvements in his first year, both may be looking for a new job.


Retirement Watch:

* Joe Paterno (Penn State) - Joe Paterno is perpetually on retirement watch.

* Mack Brown (Texas) - Mack Brown won't be forced out, but another bad season and he may consider retirement.

* Dennis Erickson (Arizona State) - I had Dennis Erickson on Retirement Watch last year, but he's back in 2011. The Sun Devils are getting a lot of talk as a sleeper in the Pac-12. If they don't live up to expectations, things could get a little strained in Erickson's fifth season.

* Mike Price (UTEP) - Mike Price keeps doing enough to stick around, but he continues to be on retirement watch.

2011 Preseason Top 25

1 - Alabama (14)
2 - Oklahoma (8)
3 - Oregon (3)
4 - Boise State (6)
5 - LSU (9)
6 - Florida State (24)
7 - Texas A&M (29)
8 - Wisconsin (7)
9 - South Carolina (22)
10 - Nebraska (17)
11 - Missouri (16)
12 - Oklahoma State (10)
13 - Arkansas (12)
14 - Michigan State (11)
15 - West Virginia (20)
16 - Notre Dame (UR)
17 - Stanford (4)
18 - Ohio State (5)
19 - TCU (2)
20 - Mississippi State (23)
21 - Virginia Tech (15)
22 - USC (UR)
23 - Nevada (13)
24 - Illinois (UR)
25 - Arizona (UR)

Final 2010 ranking in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Auburn, Georgia, Iowa, NC State, UCF

Newcomers (Unranked at the end of last year): Arizona, Illinois, Notre Dame, USC

Noticeably Absent (Ranked at the end of last year): Auburn, Hawaii, UCF, Utah

2011 Preseason Bowl Projections

BCS Bowl Games:

BCS National Championship Game: Alabama vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Texas A&M vs West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Nebraska
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Wisconsin
Orange Bowl: Boise State vs Florida State


The Rest:

New Mexico Bowl: California vs Colorado State
Humanitarian Bowl: Fresno State vs Northern Illinois
New Orleans Bowl: East Carolina vs FIU
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl: Southern Miss vs Syracuse
Las Vegas Bowl: TCU vs Washington

Poinsettia Bowl: Nevada vs San Diego State
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs UCF
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Northwestern vs Toledo
Independence Bowl: Air Force vs Virginia
Insight Bowl: Michigan vs Oklahoma State

Champs Sports Bowl: Clemson vs Notre Dame
Military Bowl: Maryland vs Navy
Car Care Bowl of Texas: Iowa vs Texas Tech
Alamo Bowl: Arizona vs Texas
Armed Forces Bowl: BYU vs SMU

Pinstripe Bowl: Baylor vs Pitt
Music City Bowl: Florida vs NC State
Holiday Bowl: Kansas State vs Stanford
Belk Bowl: Georgia Tech vs USF
Sun Bowl: Arizona State vs North Carolina

Liberty Bowl: Auburn vs Houston
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Mississippi State vs Virginia Tech
TicketCity Bowl: Illinois vs Tulsa
Outback Bowl: Georgia vs Ohio State
Capital One Bowl: Michigan State vs South Carolina

Gator Bowl: Penn State vs Tennessee
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Ohio vs Troy
Cotton Bowl Classic: Arkansas vs Missouri
BBVA Compass Bowl Cincinnati vs Kentucky
Fight Hunger Bowl: Army at California


Conference Championship Games

ACC: Florida State vs Virginia Tech
Big Ten: Nebraska vs Wisconsin
C-USA: Houston vs UCF
MAC: Ohio vs Toledo
Pac-12 Arizona vs Oregon
SEC: Alabama vs South Carolina

2011 ACC Preview

The Favorite (Atlantic): A lot of preseason publications are really high on Florida State this year. In his first season, Jimbo Fisher led the Seminoles to their first 10-win season since 2003. Quarterback Christian Ponder was a first rounder in the NFL draft, but his backup EJ Manuel did get some experience last year. He completed almost 70% of his 93 attempts, but he did throw as many interceptions as touchdowns. Florida State gets a very favorable draw from the Coastal division, playing Duke, Miami and Virginia. Looking around the rest of the division, it would be a major upset if Florida State wasn't playing in the ACC Championship Game.

The Favorite (Coastal): Virginia Tech is my dark horse national championship contender. Looking at the schedule, the most difficult road games are at Georgia Tech and at Virginia. All of the better opponents have to travel to Lane Stadium, which is always a difficult place to play. Well, unless you're James Madison. Virginia Tech will be favored in all of its non-conference games. They also avoid Florida State in the regular season, although they are likely to meet in the ACC championship game. With a little good luck, the Hokies could be playing in the BCS National Championship Game.

The Challenger (Atlantic): Clemson finished 6-7 last year, but six of the losses were by nine or fewer points. The offense took a big step back, averaging seven points per game fewer than in 2009. This season, nine starters on that side of the ball return, all but the quarterback and the left tackle. Clemson is one of the only teams in the Atlantic that I think can challenge Florida State.

The Challenger (Coastal): The Coastal division of the ACC is caked in scandal with North Carolina terminating Butch Davis a month prior to the season and with Miami's impending ineligibility issues. By process of elimination, that leaves Georgia Tech as my second main contender in the Coastal division. The Yellow Jackets had their first losing season under head coach Paul Johnson last year. It's possible that the ACC is understanding how to defend the triple option attack. But I believe Paul Johnson is a good coach, and he can still have good seasons in an AQ conference.

The Sleeper: Virginia made a good hire when they brought in Mike London. They won four games last year, but were close in three others. With 18 starters returning, the Cavaliers can take advantage of a good situation in the division.

The Letdown: As of this posting, 13 players on Miami's team are ineligible. If that ruling is not overturned, then Miami could be in for a long season. Even if the players are ruled eligible, the distraction could negatively affect the team. The Hurricanes had eight players drafted off last year's team and have a new head coach.

Conference Player of the Year: In a conference that lacks preseason star power, I'll call for EJ Manuel to have a big season.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I called NC State my Letdown team, but instead the Wolfpack exploded for nine wins including one in the Champs Sports Bowl. Picking Wake Forest to go 6-6 was pretty bad too.

Non-Conference Games to Watch:
* Oklahoma at Florida State, September 17 - Florida State gets a chance to live up to the preseason hype three weeks into the season.
* Ohio State at Miami, September 17 - This game becomes much less interesting if Miami loses 13 players.
* Auburn at Clemson, September 17 - Clemson pushed Auburn to overtime on the road. The tables could be turned when Auburn makes the return trip to Death Valley.
* Notre Dame vs Maryland at FedEx Field, November 12 - Surprisingly, this is only the second meeting between these two schools.
* Florida State at Florida, November 26 - Florida State hasn't won in the Swamp since 2003.


Projected Standings:
Atlantic:

Florida St | 10-2 | 7-1







Clemson | 7-5 | 5-3







Maryland | 6-6 | 4-4







Boston College | 5-7 | 4-4







NC State | 7-5 | 3-5







Wake Forest | 2-10 | 1-7








Coastal:

Virginia Tech | 11-1 | 7-1







Georgia Tech | 7-5 | 4-4







North Carolina | 7-5 | 4-4







Miami | 5-7 | 4-4







Virginia | 7-5 | 3-5







Duke | 5-7 | 2-6

2011 Big 12 Preview

State of the Big 12: The Big 12 lost two member institutions last year when Colorado left for the Pac-12 and Nebraska left for the Big Ten. The conference chose not to replace any members and eliminate the division format and the championship game. The ten members now play every other member in one season. Rumors are swirling about the future of the Big 12, but nothing has been decided yet.

The Favorite: Oklahoma returns 16 starters of a team that won 12 games last year. Quarterback Landry Jones returns after a sophomore season where he passed for over 4700 yards and 38 touchdowns. His favorite target Ryan Broyles returns who had 1622 receiving yards and scored 14 touchdowns. One potential issue is that last year's offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson left the program to become the head coach of Indiana.

The Challenger: Texas A&M has improved every year under head coach Mike Sherman, and his fourth season might be his best yet. Last season A&M beat Oklahoma for the first time since 2002. Their matchup this season could decide the conference. Over the past two seasons, the Aggie defense has improved by over 11 points per game. They do lose #2 overall pick Von Miller, the leader of the defense.

The Sleeper: Because of the loss of quarterback Blaine Gabbert, Missouri is getting overlooked. Interestingly, Gabbert's stats weren't that great. He only threw 16 touchdowns versus nine interceptions. Most of the other contributors return, and Missouri hasn't had much trouble replacing other high-octane quarterbacks under head coach Gary Pinkel. Missouri does have to go on the road to play both Oklahoma and Texas A&M, so an upset or two will be necessary to win the conference.

The Letdown: Oklahoma State is my unusual pick for my Letdown team. I'm predicting them to go 9-3 this season, but I just can't shake the feeling that they are going to regress badly. Last year's offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen took a very young and inexperienced team and made them the #3 offense in the country. He made stars out of relative unknowns Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon. Oklahoma is also dealing with replacing an offensive coordinator, but the Sooners have more talent and a better defense than the Cowboys.

Conference Player of the Year: Landry Jones should have another stellar season and will likely be in New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I don't think anyone saw the downfall of Texas coming in the preseason. I had them winning 11 games when they actually ended up in the Big 12 South basement.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Oklahoma at Florida State, September 17 - Two top ten teams squaring off in a game with national championship implications.
* Texas A&M vs Arkansas at Arlington, October 1 - I have a feeling this is going to be A&M's first win over Arkansas at Cowboys stadium.
* Missouri at Arizona State, September 9 - Missouri gets an early road test to prove themselves without Blaine Gabbert.
* Arizona at Oklahoma State, September 8 - A Thursday night ESPN game in the second week with conference bragging rights at stake.
* Texas at UCLA, September 17 - UCLA going into Austin and whipping Texas was the beginning of the end for the Longhorns last year.


Projected Standings:

Oklahoma | 11-1 | 8-1







Texas A&M | 10-2 | 7-2







Missouri | 9-3 | 6-3







Oklahoma St | 9-3 | 6-3







Texas | 8-4 | 5-4







Baylor | 6-6 | 4-5







Kansas St | 7-5 | 4-5







Texas Tech | 6-6 | 3-6







Iowa St | 3-9 | 1-8







Kansas | 3-9 | 1-8

2011 Big East Preview

State of the Big East: The Big East will add TCU as a football-only member next season. The conference will then have nine football members, which allows a conference schedule with equal home and road games. No other expansion is planned at this time, but the Big East will remain connected in some way to most expansion rumors.

The Favorite: West Virginia flew under the radar last year, especially the lights-out Mountaineer defense. It gave up fewer than 14 points per game on average and held opponents to 10 or fewer points six times. NC State scored the most against them when they put up 23 in the bowl game. New head coach Dana Holgorsen, offensive coordinator from Oklahoma State, joins the staff. Expect an immediate jolt in the offense with him here. Regardless of the head coaching change, this is the strongest team in the Big East.

The Challenger: Pitt changed head coaches (twice) in the offseason, but still should be one of the top teams in the conference. Pitt was successful under Dave Wannstedt, winning 27 games over the past three years, but they still underachieved. Pitt squandered many opportunities to win the Big East, like last season when they lost to Connecticut by only two points. I think the excitement that new head coach Todd Graham will bring is good for the program. Pitt has three chances for statement non-conference win against Iowa, Notre Dame and Utah.

The Sleeper: Teams often make a big jump in the second season of the head coach's tenure. That could be the case for USF under Skip Holtz. USF lost three conference games last year by a total of 14 points. The Bulls also notched impressive non-conference wins at Miami and against Clemson in the bowl game. USF finishes the season hosting West Virginia in a Thursday night game. It's possible that contest will determine the winner of the Big East.

The Letdown: In 2009, Cincinnati won the Big East and played in a BCS bowl, but then lost their head coach and missed the postseason entirely the next year. Connecticut appears to be traveling down that same path this year. Head coach Randy Edsall took the team to the Fiesta Bowl, but then bolted for the Maryland vacancy in the offseason. I'm not a huge fan of the new head coach Paul Pasqualoni, and doubt he will continue the winning ways at Connecticut (33 wins in the past 4 years.)

Conference Player of the Year: West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith could thrive under the tutelage of Dana Holgorsen.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I had the bottom group of the standings all out of order. I predicted Cincinnati and Rutgers to go bowling, but not Syracuse and Louisville. I did pick Connecticut as my Sleeper, which turned out well.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* LSU at West Virginia, September 24 - If West Virginia is going to return to the national elite, it needs to win the big non-conference home games.
* Pitt at Iowa, September 17 - Pitt has a couple of warmup games before facing a real defense like Iowa. This game should be a good barometer for how well Todd Graham's offense has been implemented.
* USF at Notre Dame, September 3 - An underrated opening weekend game matching two second year head coaches looking to make the leap.
* Louisville at Kentucky, September 17 - Louisville has lost this Bluegrass State battle four straight times, but that streak has included heart-breaking losses by four, six and seven points.
* Rutgers at North Carolina, September 10 - Rutgers has the opportunity to steal an early one on the road with all the turmoil in Chapel Hill.


Projected Standings:

West Virginia | 10-2 | 6-1







Pittsburgh | 8-4 | 5-2







USF | 9-3 | 5-2







Syracuse | 6-6 | 3-4







Cincinnati | 6-6 | 3-4







Rutgers | 6-6 | 2-5







Louisville | 5-7 | 2-5







Connecticut | 5-7 | 2-5

2011 Big Ten Preview

State of the Big Ten: The Big Ten added Nebraska in the offseason to expand to 12 teams. The conference split into two divisions, Legends and Leaders, and will host a championship game in Indianapolis. Each team has a permanent "cross-over" opponent from the other division. No further expansion is planned at this time.

The Favorite (Legends): Nebraska enters the Big Ten and the schedule-makers did them no favors. The Huskers draw the strongest three teams from the Leaders division. They must play home games Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa while also traveling to Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan. Regardless of the schedule, I still think Nebraska will be playing in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game. Bo Pelini's defense is always stout, and the offense was one of the top rushing teams in the country last season, averaging 247 yards on the ground per game.

The Favorite (Leaders): Wisconsin has won ten and eleven games the past two seasons. They might actually win more this season. Russell Wilson transferred to Wisconsin, adding a new playmaker to an already potent offense. Wisconsin scored over 41 points per game last year, topping 70 points on three occasions. If he can add to the offense without disrupting the chemistry, then an undefeated season is possible. Back-to-back road games against Michigan State and Ohio State will be the biggest test. Wisconsin also draws Nebraska from the Legends division, in what is a preview of my predicted Big Ten Championship Game.

The Challenger (Legends): Michigan State had a huge season last year, winning 11 games for the first time in school history. The Spartans will likely be just as strong this season and will be battling Nebraska for the top spot in the division. Michigan State also draws Ohio State and Wisconsin from the Leaders division, so the schedule isn't much easier than Nebraska's. Interestingly, Michigan State scored at least 26 points in each of its 11 wins, but only scored six and seven points in its two losses.

The Challenger (Leaders): Ohio State had a very tumultuous offseason, culminating in the termination of long time head coach Jim Tressel. Also four players will be suspended for the first five games of the season and quarterback Terrelle Pryor left the school to enter the NFL Supplemental Draft. It's impossible to predict how much effect this will have on the Buckeyes, but I don't expect them to be a top ten team this season. The team is still very talented, and could make the Leaders division very interesting if I've overestimated Wisconsin.

The Sleeper: Illinois has the schedule to have a very good season. There are eight home games, plus the road games are very manageable. At Penn State will be a tough contest but traveling to Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota is not a difficult task. Also the Illini miss Nebraska, Michigan State and Iowa from the Legends division. Illinois did have four players drafted last year, but Ron Zook has been able to continuously bring talent into the program. I could see the Illini finishing as high as second in the division.

The Letdown: I have Ohio State as the Challenger in the Leaders division, but this program also belongs here. The Buckeyes should be contending for conference and national championships, but the lack of compliance has left them as a good but not great program.

Conference Player of the Year: I'm jumping headfirst onto the Russell Wilson bandwagon and not looking back.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I picked a pretty good sleeper in Wisconsin, but I vastly underrated Michigan State. I predicted them as a very respectable 8-4, when in reality they were a great 11-1.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Ohio State at Miami, September 17 - The ultimate high-stakes college football game. Loser gets the death penalty. Just kidding. I think.
* Alabama at Penn State, September 10 - Hopefully the unfriendly confines of Happy Valley will provide a better game than last year's 24-3 affair.
* Michigan State at Notre Dame, September 17 - Last year's matchup ended with an amazing play when Michigan State faked a field goal and scored a touchdown to win the game in overtime.
* Arizona State at Illinois, September 17 - An underrated non-conference game between two sleepers in their respective conferences.
* Washington at Nebraska, September 17 - The third matchup between these teams in two years. Last year's Holiday Bowl was one of my biggest surprises of the offseason.


Projected Standings:
Legends:

Nebraska | 10-2 | 6-2







Michigan State | 10-2 | 6-2







Michigan | 7-5 | 4-4







Iowa | 8-4 | 4-4







Northwestern | 7-5 | 3-5







Minnesota | 4-8 | 1-7








Leaders:

Wisconsin | 11-1 | 7-1







Ohio State | 8-4 | 5-3







Penn State | 8-4 | 5-3







Illinois | 8-4 | 5-3







Indiana | 4-8 | 1-7







Purdue | 4-8 | 1-7

2011 C-USA Preview

The Favorite (East): UCF hosted and won the C-USA Championship Game, as well as picking up its first bowl win in 2010. UCF's final record was 11-3, and those three losses were by a combined 21 points. I'm picking UCF to repeat despite returning only ten starters. UCF had more rushing yards than passing yards, and had three players with double digit rushing touchdowns last year. All three of them return and the top three receivers are gone, so except the Knights to focus on the ground game again in 2011.

The Favorite (West): Case Keenum was granted a sixth year of eligibility, so Houston is expected to climb back to the top of the West standings. Keenum has over 13000 passing yards already in his collegiate career, and he has a great opportunity to pass Hawaii's Timmy Chang as the all-time passer in NCAA history. Houston struggled badly after Keenum was injured last year and finished with only half as many wins as compared to 2009. Houston's biggest issue is the defense, which has given up over 30 points per game in each season under head coach Kevin Sumlin. If Keenum is healthy, the Cougars will be able to outscore most teams and could be looking at a big season.

The Challenger (East): Southern Miss has had winning records and postseason appearances every year under Larry Fedora, but the Golden Eagles haven't won the East in his tenure yet. Southern Miss hosts UCF and has an easier draw from the West. The Golden Eagles will definitely contend this season. Also senior quarterback Austin Davis is less than 300 yards from becoming the program's all-time leading passer over some guy named Brett Favre.

The Challenger (West): SMU might have been my pick for the favorite in the West if the schedule wasn't so killer. The Mustangs have conference road games against Southern Miss, Tulsa and Houston. Plus they also draw UCF from the East. SMU does return 18 starters, all but the top receiver from last year. Quarterback Kyle Padron is in his third season running June Jones' run-and-shoot system and should be able to cut down on his turnovers (14 interceptions last year.)

The Sleeper: Tulsa may be getting overlooked because of the head coaching change. The Golden Hurricane return 18 starters, including ten from the offense that averaged over 41 points per game last year. The only two conference losses from last year were on the road by a combined five points. They host fellow West contenders Houston and SMU. The non-conference schedule is really difficult with games against Oklahoma and Boise State on the road and Oklahoma State at home.

The Letdown: UTEP led a senior-laden offense and an incredibly weak schedule to the first bowl appearance since 2005. The Miners were promptly blasted by fellow 6-6 BYU in the New Mexico Bowl. The offense only returns two starters and will have to replace the Miner all-time leading passer as well as the entire offensive line. The Miners are likely to take a big step back and are very unlikely to return to the postseason.

Conference Player of the Year: Several quarterbacks in the conference will put up big numbers. With questions lingering about Keenum's health, I'll give credit to East Carolina's Dominique Davis. He threw for almost 4000 yards and 37 touchdowns plus running for another nine scores last season.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview I was obviously wrong about Houston, but that can happen when you lose your best player early in the season. I also called East Carolina my Letdown team, but the Pirates still made it to their fifth straight bowl game.

Non-conference Games to Watch
* UCLA at Houston, September 3 - UCLA ended Case Keenum's season last year. He and the rest of the Cougars will be out for revenge in the opener.
* Boston College at UCF, September 10 - UCF gets a nice early season test hosting a solid ACC team.
* Oklahoma State at Tulsa, September 17 - Two in-state rivals with high powered offenses are matched up in this game.
* North Carolina at East Carolina, October 1 - UNC is in turmoil after firing its head coach a month before the season. The Pirates could get the upset here at the rocking Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
* UCF at BYU, September 23 - A good matchup on a Friday night ESPN game.


Projected Standings:
East:

UCF | 9-3 | 6-2







East Carolina | 6-6 | 6-2







Southern Miss | 8-4 | 5-3







UAB | 5-7 | 4-4







Marshall | 4-8 | 3-5







Memphis | 2-10 | 0-8








West:

Houston | 10-2 | 6-2







SMU | 7-5 | 5-3







Tulsa | 6-6 | 5-3







Rice | 4-8 | 4-4







Tulane | 3-9 | 2-6







UTEP | 4-8 | 2-6