State of the WAC: Boise State moves to the Mountain West Conference this season, and next season Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada will do the same. The WAC has extended invitations to and received acceptance from five schools, although only two of them play football. Texas State and UTSA will make the move up to FBS in 2012, giving the WAC seven football members. I believe the long term viability of this conference is in doubt, and it's possible that all members will be relegated to the FCS.
The Favorite: Hawaii and Nevada tied Boise State for first place last season, sharing the conference title. Nevada is my favorite this year, who hope to continue the momentum from a great season. Nevada has one of the crazier schedules in the country, with its first home game on October 8th. After that, six of the final eight games are at home in Reno. Hosting Fresno State and Hawaii gives Nevada a leg up on the other WAC contenders.
The Challengers: Hawaii and Fresno State are very similar to Nevada, and I wouldn't be surprised if any one of them won the conference. Hawaii was much better than I expected last season, winning ten games. Hawaii has to replace its top two rushers and four of its top five receivers. Replacing those skill players plus four starters on the offensive line will be key to the Warriors' success. Fresno State defeated Cincinnati and Illinois at home last year, and the Bulldogs have three more chances to beat AQ teams this year. They host Mississippi and play California in the opener at Candlestick Park, as well as traveling to Nebraska.
The Sleeper: Louisiana Tech has a chance to make some noise in the WAC this season. The Bulldogs just missed out on being bowl eligible last season due to a single point loss to Southern Miss and a six-point loss to Fresno State. The non-conference schedule could be a stumbling block, with road games at all three Mississippi schools and hosting Houston.
The Letdown: After two seasons, I'm done calling Utah State my sleeper team. The Aggies should be able to get to a bowl game based on their schedule alone. Instead they'll probably finish with four wins again like they have the past two seasons under Gary Andersen.
Conference Player of the Year: Hawaii's QB Bryant Moniz threw for over 5000 yards and 39 touchdowns last season. He will likely put up the best numbers in the conference in his senior season.
I Wrote What?: In last year's preview I thought Hawaii would start a downward turn three years removed from the June Jones era. Instead they won ten games and shared the conference title. I was within two games of every other team's final record, but I missed badly on the Warriors.
Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Fresno State vs California at San Francisco, September 3 - Fresno State is 2-0 all-time against California, while the Bears are trying to rebound from their first losing season in Jeff Tedford's tenure.
* Colorado at Hawaii, September 3 - Hawaii can ruin Colorado's first game as a member of the Pac-12 with a win in the opener.
* Nevada at Boise State, October 1 - Nevada beat the Broncos for the first time since 1998 last year. Can they make it two in a row?
* Houston at Louisiana Tech, September 17 - If Louisiana Tech wants to go bowling, winning non-conference games at home is key.
* Mississippi at Fresno State, October 1 - The Rebels won this matchup last season despite the fact that they lost to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt previously. The Bulldogs will be looking for revenge.
Projected Standings:
Nevada | 8-4 | 6-1
Hawaii | 9-4 | 5-2
Fresno St | 7-6 | 5-2
Louisiana Tech | 6-6 | 5-2
Idaho | 5-7 | 3-4
Utah St | 4-8 | 2-5
San Jose St | 1-11 | 1-7
New Mexico St | 2-11 | 1-7
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