The Favorite: Pitt should make it back to a BCS bowl game for the first time since 2004. Their three losses last year were by a combined 11 points, and they had the best true freshman running back in the country in Dion Lewis. Pitt has to replace a veteran quarterback and most of the offensive line, plus more than half of the defensive starters. The non-conference schedule is harder than most with games against Utah, Miami and Notre Dame. The Panthers have a lot going against them, but the other challengers in the Big East have similar flaws.
The Challenger: West Virginia has gone 9-4 in both seasons under head coach Bill Stewart. That's a good record, but he needs to prove that he can win a conference championships considering all the talent on the team. The offense has been his biggest issue. It dropped 15 points per game in his first season, and barely improved in his second. And that was with Pat White in his senior season an Noel Devine, one of the top rated running backs out of high school. For the second straight year, they are replacing the quarterback and hoping Devine can shoulder the offensive load. A trip to Pitt late in the season is likely to determine the conference.
The Sleeper: Connecticut is one of those teams that never gets much national publicity despite their consistent success. Connecticut is one of only three teams that had multiple 1000-yard rushers (Georgia Tech, Nevada). While they did lose five games last year, none were by more than four points. This year Connecticut hosts my top two contenders Pitt and West Virginia, both on short weeks. With no clear favorite in the conference, this looks like a great opportunity for the Huskies.
The Letdown: Cincinnati won the past two Big East championships and had an undefeated regular season last year. The problem is that head coach Brian Kelly took the Notre Dame job, and they weren't exactly blowing the other contenders out of the water. They beat Connecticut, West Virginia and Pitt by a combined six points. New head coach Butch Jones has been in a very similar situation before, he took over Central Michigan after Brian Kelly took the Cincinnati job. He kept CMU near the top of the MAC, but I think the competition to stay at the top will be tougher in the Big East. Also, Cincinnati has tough non-conference games against Fresno State, NC State and Oklahoma.
Conference Player of the Year: Pitt RB Dion Lewis should have the best stats in the conference.
I Wrote What?: I thought that Cincinnati had peaked in 2008 and would be down last year. I even listed them as my Letdown team in last year's preview. Instead they went 12-0, won the Big East, and went to the Sugar Bowl.
Non-conference Games to Watch:
* West Virginia at LSU, Sept 25 - Fun fact: Under Bill Stewart, West Virginia has won every non-conference home game (7-0) and lost every road game (0-3).
* Miami at Pitt, Sept 23 - An important game for two teams trying to get back to the top.
* Pitt at Utah, Sept 2 - A rematch of the 2004 Fiesta Bowl. I doubt Pitt gets blown out again.
* Connecticut at Michigan, Sept 4 - Winning games like this one will help make people realize that Connecticut is more than just a basketball school.
* Kentucky at Louisville, Sept 4 - Two first year head coaches get to go up against each other in an in-state rivalry game.
Projected Standings:
Pittsburgh | 9-3 | 6-1
West Virginia | 9-3 | 5-2
Connecticut | 9-3 | 4-3
Cincinnati | 7-5 | 4-3
Rutgers | 7-5 | 3-4
USF | 6-6 | 3-4
Syracuse | 5-7 | 2-5
Louisville | 4-8 | 1-6
No comments:
Post a Comment