2009 Week 9 Picks

Week 1: 63-15 (80.8%)
Week 2: 51-11 (82.3%)
Week 3: 47-17 (73.4%)
Week 4: 45-16 (73.8%)
Week 5: 37-15 (71.2%)
Week 6: 45-10 (81.8%)
Week 7: 44-11 (80%)
Week 8: 43-12 (78.2%)
Season: 375-107 (77.8%)


Thursday, October 27
East Carolina at Memphis


Thursday, October 29
North Carolina at Virginia Tech


Friday, October 30
West Virginia at USF


Saturday, October 31
Rutgers at Connecticut
NC State at Florida St
Cincinnati at Syracuse
New Mexico St at Ohio St
Purdue at Wisconsin
Ohio at Ball St
Louisiana Lafayette at FIU
Indiana at Iowa
Akron at Northern Illinois
Mississippi at Auburn

Nebraska at Baylor
Southern Miss at Houston
Missouri at Colorado
Coastal Carolina at Clemson
SMU at Tulsa
Western Michigan at Kent St
San Jose St at Boise St
UAB at UTEP
Cal at Arizona St
Georgia vs Florida at Jacksonville

Arkansas St at Louisville
Central Michigan at Boston College
Miami at Wake Forest
Toledo at Miami (OH)
Iowa St at Texas A&M
Duke at Virginia
Michigan at Illinois
Temple at Navy
Kansas at Texas Tech
Air Force at Colorado St

UCLA at Oregon St
Western Kentucky at North Texas
MTSU at FAU
UNLV at TCU
Hawaii at Nevada
Penn St at Northwestern
Louisiana Tech at Idaho
Utah St at Fresno St
Eastern Michigan at Arkansas
Mississippi St at Kentucky

Kansas St at Oklahoma
Louisiana Monroe at Troy
New Mexico at San Diego St
Washington St at Notre Dame at San Antonio
Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt
South Carolina at Tennessee
Tulane at LSU
Michigan St at Minnesota
Texas at Oklahoma St
Wyoming at Utah

USC at Oregon


Sunday, November 1
Marshall at UCF

2009 Week 9 Top 25

No movement at the top of the rankings, as the unbeatens stayed in the top seven spots. Most of the shakeup is at the bottom of the rankings. Nobody wants to stay in the Top 25 with four out of the bottom seven losing.

Two big games matching up ranked teams this weekend. USC travels Oregon in a game that will determine the favorite in the Pac-10 race. Texas travels to Oklahoma State in a battle of teams without a conference loss. The winner will become the favorite in the Big 12 South.

1 - Florida (1)
2 - Texas (2)
3 - Alabama (3)
4 - Iowa (4)
5 - Cincinnati (5)
6 - Boise St (6)
7 - TCU (7)
8 - Georgia Tech (10)
9 - LSU (9)
10 - USC (11)
11 - Penn St (12)
12 - Oregon (13)
13 - Virginia Tech (14)
14 - Miami (8)
15 - Houston (15)
16 - Oklahoma St (16)
17 - Pitt (17)
18 - West Virginia (21)
19 - Ohio St (18)
20 - Utah (20)
21 - Arizona (UR)
22 - Central Michigan (UR)
23 - Wisconsin (25)
24 - South Carolina (UR)
25 - Notre Dame (UR)


Others Receiving Votes: BYU, Cal, Kansas, Mississippi, Navy
Added: Arizona, Central Michigan, South Carolina, Notre Dame
Dropped: BYU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Nebraska

2009 Week 8 Picks

Week 1: 63-15 (80.8%)
Week 2: 51-11 (82.3%)
Week 3: 47-17 (73.4%)
Week 4: 45-16 (73.8%)
Week 5: 37-15 (71.2%)
Week 6: 45-10 (81.8%)
Week 7: 44-11 (80%)
Season: 332-95 (77.8%)


Wednesday, October 21
Tulsa at UTEP


Thursday, October 22
Florida St at North Carolina


Friday, October 23
Rutgers at Army


Saturday, October 24
Indiana at Northwestern
Central Michigan at Bowling Green
Minnesota at Ohio St
USF at Pitt
Georgia Tech at Virginia
UAB at Marshall
Connecticut at West Virginia
Illinois at Purdue
Arkansas at Mississippi
Iowa St at Nebraska

Oklahoma St at Baylor
Colorado at Kansas St
Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)
Ball St at Eastern Michigan
Maryland at Duke
Kent St at Ohio
Buffalo at Western Michigan
Louisiana Tech at Utah St
Boston College at Notre Dame
Penn St at Michigan

Akron at Syracuse
UCF at Rice
Oregon at Washington
Tennessee at Alabama
Louisville at Cincinnati
Oklahoma at Kansas
Clemson at Miami
Western Kentucky at MTSU
Wake Forest at Navy
North Texas at Troy

San Diego St at Colorado St
Air Force at Utah
Idaho at Nevada
Washington St at Cal
FAU at Louisiana Lafayette
UCLA at Arizona
Louisiana Monroe at Kentucky
Iowa at Michigan St
FIU at Arkansas St
Tulane at Southern Miss

Vanderbilt at South Carolina
Texas A&M at Texas Tech
Temple at Toledo
Auburn at LSU
SMU at Houston
TCU at BYU
Florida at Mississippi St
Oregon St at USC
Texas at Missouri
UNLV at New Mexico

Arizona St at Stanford
Fresno St at New Mexico St
Boise St at Hawaii

2009 Midseason Bowl Projections

Halfway through the season, it's time to update these projections including projected regular season record. The preseason projections can be seen here.

BCS Bowl Games

BCS National Championship Game: Florida (13-0) vs Texas (12-1)
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon (10-2) vs Virginia Tech (10-2)
Rose Bowl: USC (11-1) vs Iowa (11-1)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (12-1) vs Cincinnati (11-1)
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (12-1) vs Boise State (13-0)


The Others

Capital One Bowl: LSU (10-2) vs Penn State (10-2)
Gator Bowl: Notre Dame (9-3) vs Nebraska (8-5)
Cotton Bowl: Mississippi (8-4) vs Oklahoma St (10-2)
Outback Bowl: Ohio State (9-3) vs South Carolina (8-4)
Insight Bowl: Michigan State (7-5) vs Kansas (8-4)

Chik-Fil-A Bowl: Georgia (7-5) vs Miami (10-2)
Holiday Bowl: Arizona (8-4) vs Oklahoma (9-3)
Sun Bowl: Oregon State (7-5) vs Pitt (10-2)
Liberty Bowl: Houston (12-1) vs Arkansas (7-5)
Alamo Bowl: Wisconsin (9-3) vs Texas Tech (8-4)

Music City Bowl: Auburn (7-5) vs Florida State (6-6)
Car Care Bowl: West Virginia (9-3) vs North Carolina (7-5)
Champs Sports Bowl: Michigan (8-4) vs Clemson (7-6)
Poinsettia Bowl: BYU (10-2) vs Louisiana Tech (6-6)
Papajohns.com Bowl USF (8-4) vs Kentucky (6-6)

Emerald Bowl: Cal (7-5) at Boston College (7-5)
Independence Bowl: Tennessee (6-6) at Missouri (8-4)
GMAC Bowl: Northern Illinois (7-5) at Louisiana Monroe (8-4)
Hawaii Bowl: Idaho (7-5) vs SMU (6-6)
Las Vegas Bowl: TCU (11-1) vs Stanford (6-6)

Humanitarian Bowl: Nevada (8-4) vs Colorado State (6-6)
Armed Forces Bowl: Utah (10-2) vs Tulsa (9-3)
Little Caesers Pizza Bowl: Minnesota (6-6) vs Central Michigan (10-3)
Texas Bowl: Navy (9-4) vs UCF (6-6)
New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss (7-6) vs Troy (8-4)

St Petersburg Bowl: Rutgers (7-5) vs Marshall (7-5)
EagleBank Bowl: East Carolina (6-6) vs Wake Forest (6-6)
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State (8-4) vs Air Force (7-5)
International Bowl: Connecticut (7-5) vs Ohio (8-5)


Conference Championship Games

ACC: Clemson vs Georgia Tech
Big 12: Texas vs Nebraska
C-USA: Southern Miss vs Houston
MAC: Central Michigan vs Ohio
SEC: Florida vs Alabama

2009 Week 8 Top 25

Last week was a bloodbath in the Top 25 with nine ranked teams losing. Five of the teams lost to other ranked teams, but there were some major upsets too. None was bigger than Ohio State losing to Purdue, a team on a five game losing streak that had only beaten Toledo this season. Ohio State's national championship games are over, and a Rose Bowl appearence is in jeopardy with Iowa winning every week.

Only one matchup this week between ranked teams after five last week. TCU travels to BYU in an important Mountain West showdown. TCU is trying to run the table and make it to a BCS bowl game. They can pass Boise State in the BCS rankings with a couple more good wins that the Broncos won't have the opportunity to match.

1 - Florida (1)
2 - Texas (2)
3 - Alabama (3)
4 - Iowa (4)
5 - Cincinnati (7)
6 - Boise St (5)
7 - TCU (6)
8 - Miami (8)
9 - LSU (9)
10 - Georgia Tech (16)
11 - USC (11)
12 - Penn St (13)
13 - Oregon (17)
14 - Virginia Tech (10)
15 - Houston (19)
16 - Oklahoma St (24)
17 - Pitt (UR)
18 - Ohio St (12)
19 - BYU (25)
20 - Utah (UR)
21 - West Virginia (UR)
22 - Texas Tech (UR)
23 - Kansas (15)
24 - Nebraska (14)
25 - Wisconsin (18)


Others Receiving Votes: Auburn, Michigan, Missouri, South Carolina, USF
Added: Pitt, Utah, West Virginia, Texas Tech
Dropped: Auburn, Missouri, South Carolina, USF

2009 Week 6 Notes

I must be late on this post since I'm writing it during the Cincinnati-USF game.

Idaho is 5-1, the first 5-win season since 2000. They host a Hawaii team this week that doesn't look very good. After Saturday, they could be bowl-eligible for only the third time since moving up to the FBS level.

Not a good week for my predictions. None of my six upset specials hit, and I only went 2-4 against the spread. My record on the season is now 10-7-1.
USC (-10) over Notre Dame - Statement game.
Houston (-17) over Tulane - Tulane can't stop Houston.
Iowa State (-1) over Baylor - Iowa State is 3-3 with two close losses.
Missouri (+7) over Oklahoma State - Don't be surprised if the Tigers win straight up.
Washington (+6.5) over Arizona State - Strange line.
Colorado State (+22) over TCU - Too high.

2009 Week 7 Picks

Week 1: 63-15 (80.8%)
Week 2: 51-11 (82.3%)
Week 3: 47-17 (73.4%)
Week 4: 45-16 (73.8%)
Week 5: 37-15 (71.2%)
Week 6: 45-10 (81.8%)
Season: 288-84 (77.4%)


Tuesday, October 13
Arkansas St at Louisiana Monroe


Wednesday, October 14
Boise St at Tulsa


Thursday, October 15
Cincinnati at USF


Friday, October 16
Pitt at Rutgers


Saturday, October 17
Louisville at Connecticut
Northwestern at Michigan St
Delaware St at Michigan
Wake Forest at Clemson
Oklahoma vs Texas at Arlington
Iowa at Wisconsin
Bowling Green at Ball St
Ohio St at Purdue
Georgia at Vanderbilt
Mississippi St at MTSU

Army at Temple
UAB at Mississippi
Miami (OH) at Ohio
Wyoming at Air Force
Nevada at Utah St
Cal at UCLA
Arkansas at Florida
USC at Notre Dame
NC State at Boston College
Rice at East Carolina

Texas Tech at Nebraska
Minnesota at Penn St
Marshall at West Virginia
Akron at Buffalo
Houston at Tulane
Central Michigan at Western Michigan
Virginia at Maryland
Kent St at Eastern Michigan
Colorado St at TCU
Hawaii at Idaho

Stanford at Arizona
BYU at San Diego St
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
New Mexico St at Louisiana Tech
Kansas at Colorado
Baylor at Iowa St
Illinois at Indiana
Louisiana Lafayette at Western Kentucky
FAU at North Texas
Troy at FIU

Texas A&M at Kansas St
Memphis at Southern Miss
Northern Illinois at Toledo
Kentucky at Auburn
Miami at UCF
South Carolina at Alabama
Navy at SMU
Washington at Arizona St
Missouri at Oklahoma St
San Jose St at Fresno St

Utah at UNLV

2009 Week 7 Top 25

Six teams in my Top 25 lost last week, but five of them were to other ranked teams. Only Auburn lost to an unranked team. Another four teams fell from the ranks of unbeaten. Missouri, Auburn, LSU, and Wisconsin all fell this past weekend. We're down to only nine left, and two of them play each other Thursday night.

Matchups between ranked teams this week include Cincinnati at USF on Thursday, South Carolina at Alabama, Iowa at Wisconsin, Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, and Missouri at Oklahom State. Just missing out on having two ranked teams are USC at Notre Dame and Oklahoma versus Texas in the Red River Rivalry.

1 - Florida (1)
2 - Texas (2)
3 - Alabama (3)
4 - Iowa (5)
5 - Boise St (6)
6 - TCU (7)
7 - Cincinnati (8)
8 - Miami (9)
9 - LSU (4)
10 - Virginia Tech (11)
11 - USC (10)
12 - Ohio St (12)
13 - Penn St (13)
14 - Nebraska (19)
15 - Kansas (18)
16 - Georgia Tech (23)
17 - Oregon (21)
18 - Wisconsin (16)
19 - Houston (17)
20 - Missouri (14)
21 - Auburn (15)
22 - South Carolina (25)
23 - USF (24)
24 - Oklahoma St (UR)
25 - BYU (UR)


Others Receiving Votes: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Pitt, Utah, West Virginia
Added: Oklahoma St, BYU
Dropped: Mississippi, Michigan

2009 Week 5 Notes

Four of the unbeatens lost this past weekend. Three were in my top six of most likely to lose. The one I overlooked is Houston, who lost a shootout to UTEP.

13 teams still have an unblemished record. All of them are in my Top 25 now, with USF as the latest entry. Check out the Bulls' less than impressive schedule as to why it took them so long to be ranked. It's likely there will be a lot of thinning of this herd this week. Obviously Florida and LSU can't both come out of the weekend with a perfect record, but it's not just those two. There are four other unbeaten teams (Alabama, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin) that have to play ranked teams. Also TCU and Auburn travel to play tough conference road games.

Virginia picked up its first win of the season with stingy defense (174 total yards allowed against North Carolina), and Nevada got its first win of the season with explosive offense (773 total yards over rival UNLV.) I knew the Nevada offense could be special, but that was insane. Three players had 170+ rushing yards, there were seven rushing touchdowns, and the team averaged 10.2 yards per carry.

UAB beat Southern Miss for the first time in ten tries. The curse has been broken.

Idaho is 4-1: EVERYBODY PANIC!

Coaches on the Hot Seat:
- It's funny, Al Groh and Ralph Friedgen both have their teams at 1-0 in conference play. In fact, Maryland is the only team in the Atlantic without a conference loss.
- A lot has been reported this week about the future of Bobby Bowden at Florida State. I think he deserves to go out on his own terms, but the infighting between coaches is never a good sign for a program.
- Dan Hawkins can't be feeling too great seeing how his team is a 32-point dog to Texas this week. Remember two seasons ago when Colorado upset #3 Oklahoma and everyone thought he was a miracle worker? How quickly those feelings can subside.
- Louisville has lost eight straight games to FBS competition, and Steve Kragthorpe is feeling the heat. They host Southern Miss this weekend, who just lost their starting QB for the rest of the season.
- Ron Zook at Illinois could be out at the end of the year. The three losses have been to the best teams on their schedule (except @Cincinnati after Thanksgiving), but Illinois looked bad in all of them. Illinois has to start beating the lower- and middle-tier Big Ten teams.
- C-USA has a lot of coaches that could be in trouble, but Tommy West is in the worst shape. Memphis is sitting at 1-4 without an easy game left on its schedule. Mike Price avoided this section with a nice win over a highly ranked Houston team. Perhaps that win can get the Miners headed in the right direction.
- Usually I wouldn't put a first year head coach here, but Stan Parrish seems to be taking the 12-0 Ball State team he inherited to an unprecedented 0-12 season. His 2-30-1 record at Kansas State should have served as a bigger warning sign.
- Getting embarrassed by your previously winless rival can't be good for Mike Sanford's job security at UNLV. UNLV plays the big three in the MWC in the next four weeks.
- The Paul Wulff experiment has been disasterous so far. Hosting Arizona State this weekend is one the few games that looks remotely winnable on Wazzou's schedule. Vegas has Arizona State favored by 21.
- I wonder if Western Kentucky will look to replace David Elson now that they've moved up to the FBS level, much like FIU did with Don Strock in 2006.

Upset Specials:
Two more hit last week, with Northwestern edging Purdue by shutting them out in the second half, and Oregon State winning outright as I predicted. This week's potential upsets:

Illinois over Michigan State - Letdown game for the Spartans? Or the week Illinois plays to its potential? Either is possible.
Mississippi over Alabama - Another team that has been underwhelming.
New Mexico over Wyoming - Despite starting 0-5, New Mexico has shown some improvement.
Colorado State over Utah - The Rams haven't lost in their home state, and Utah has been a little overrated.
Wisconsin over Ohio State - The Badgers could jump into the Top 5 with a win.
LSU over Florida - LSU doesn't lose night games at Death Valley, or so I've been told many times.


If I Were a Betting Man:
My season record is 8-3-1. I pushed San Diego State and Idaho keeps winning. Still, taking two out of three is a nice ratio.

Missouri (+3.5) over Nebraska - Always take the home team on a Thursday night game.
Washington State (+21) over Arizona State - I know it's Washington State, but do the Sun Devils really have an offense that should be favored by that much on the road? I say no.
Georgia (+1.5) over Tennessee - Is HFA really enough to make Tennessee the favorite?
Wisconsin (+16) over Ohio State - Way too high.
Michigan (+8) over Iowa - This game will be won by a touchdown or less.
Hawaii (+10) over Fresno State - Hawaii has won this game the past three years.

2009 Week 6 Picks

My weekly picks are posted early this week due to the Tuesday night Sun Belt matchup. I reserve the right to change any pick as long as I do so prior to that game's kickoff. Most notably is the Florida-LSU tilt as I'll be monitoring Tim Tebow's status this week.


Week 1: 63-15 (80.8%)
Week 2: 51-11 (82.3%)
Week 3: 47-17 (73.4%)
Week 4: 45-16 (73.8%)
Week 5: 37-15 (71.2%)
Season: 242-75 (76.3%)


Tuesday, October 6
MTSU at Troy


Thursday, October 8
Nebraska at Missouri


Friday, October 9
Louisiana Tech at Nevada


Saturday, October 6
Auburn at Arkansas
Miami (OH) at Northwestern
Purdue at Minnesota
West Virginia at Syracuse
Eastern Illinois at Penn St
Boston College at Virginia Tech
Vanderbilt at Army
Michigan St at Illinois
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
Georgia at Tennessee

Oklahoma St at Texas A&M
Houston at Mississippi St
Iowa St at Kansas
Kentucky at South Carolina
Ball St at Temple
New Mexico at Wyoming
Oregon at UCLA
Alabama at Mississippi
Georgia Southern at North Carolina
Texas Southern at Rutgers

Wisconsin at Ohio St
Baylor at Oklahoma
Connecticut at Pitt
Navy at Rice
Indiana at Virginia
Gardner-Webb at Buffalo
Bowling Green at Kent St
Marshall at Tulane
Duke at NC State
Arizona St at Washington St

Utah at Colorado St
Ohio at Akron
Maryland at Wake Forest
FIU at Western Kentucky
Stanford at Oregon St
North Texas at Louisiana-Lafayette
Florida A&M at Miami
Kansas St at Texas Tech
Western Michigan at Toledo
Colorado at Texas

Southern Miss at Louisville
TCU at Air Force
Idaho at San Jose St
Georgia Tech at Florida St
Florida at LSU
Utah St at New Mexico St
UTEP at Memphis
East Carolina at SMU
Michigan at Iowa
Arizona at Washington

BYU at UNLV
Fresno St at Hawaii

2009 Week 6 Top 25

Houston was the latest Top 10 program to lose, falling this week at UTEP. On the other hand, LSU won in dramatic fashion at Georgia, proving that they are worthy of their new #4 ranking. Oklahoma and Cal both fall out of the rankings as both suffered their second loss this weekend.

Several good matchups this week between ranked teams include Nebraska at Missouri on Thursday night, Mississippi at Alabama, Wisconsin at Ohio State, Michigan at Iowa, and the biggest one Florida at LSU.

1 - Florida (1)
2 - Texas (2)
3 - Alabama (3)
4 - LSU (9)
5 - Iowa (5)
6 - Boise St (4)
7 - TCU (7)
8 - Cincinnati (8)
9 - Miami (14)
10 - USC (10)
11 - Virginia Tech (10)
12 - Ohio St (12)
13 - Penn St (15)
14 - Missouri (16)
15 - Auburn (18)
16 - Wisconsin (20)
17 - Houston (6)
18 - Kansas (19)
19 - Nebraska (21)
20 - Mississippi (23)
21 - Oregon (24)
22 - Michigan (17)
23 - Georgia Tech (UR)
24 - USF (UR)
25 - South Carolina (UR)


Others Receiving Votes: Boston College, BYU, Oklahoma, Stanford, Utah
Added: Georgia Tech, USF, South Carolina
Dropped: Oklahoma, Cal, BYU