Thursday, August 25, 2011

2011 Big 12 Preview




State of the Big 12: The Big 12 lost two member institutions last year when Colorado left for the Pac-12 and Nebraska left for the Big Ten. The conference chose not to replace any members and eliminate the division format and the championship game. The ten members now play every other member in one season. Rumors are swirling about the future of the Big 12, but nothing has been decided yet.

The Favorite: Oklahoma returns 16 starters of a team that won 12 games last year. Quarterback Landry Jones returns after a sophomore season where he passed for over 4700 yards and 38 touchdowns. His favorite target Ryan Broyles returns who had 1622 receiving yards and scored 14 touchdowns. One potential issue is that last year's offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson left the program to become the head coach of Indiana.

The Challenger: Texas A&M has improved every year under head coach Mike Sherman, and his fourth season might be his best yet. Last season A&M beat Oklahoma for the first time since 2002. Their matchup this season could decide the conference. Over the past two seasons, the Aggie defense has improved by over 11 points per game. They do lose #2 overall pick Von Miller, the leader of the defense.

The Sleeper: Because of the loss of quarterback Blaine Gabbert, Missouri is getting overlooked. Interestingly, Gabbert's stats weren't that great. He only threw 16 touchdowns versus nine interceptions. Most of the other contributors return, and Missouri hasn't had much trouble replacing other high-octane quarterbacks under head coach Gary Pinkel. Missouri does have to go on the road to play both Oklahoma and Texas A&M, so an upset or two will be necessary to win the conference.

The Letdown: Oklahoma State is my unusual pick for my Letdown team. I'm predicting them to go 9-3 this season, but I just can't shake the feeling that they are going to regress badly. Last year's offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen took a very young and inexperienced team and made them the #3 offense in the country. He made stars out of relative unknowns Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon. Oklahoma is also dealing with replacing an offensive coordinator, but the Sooners have more talent and a better defense than the Cowboys.

Conference Player of the Year: Landry Jones should have another stellar season and will likely be in New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I don't think anyone saw the downfall of Texas coming in the preseason. I had them winning 11 games when they actually ended up in the Big 12 South basement.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Oklahoma at Florida State, September 17 - Two top ten teams squaring off in a game with national championship implications.
* Texas A&M vs Arkansas at Arlington, October 1 - I have a feeling this is going to be A&M's first win over Arkansas at Cowboys stadium.
* Missouri at Arizona State, September 9 - Missouri gets an early road test to prove themselves without Blaine Gabbert.
* Arizona at Oklahoma State, September 8 - A Thursday night ESPN game in the second week with conference bragging rights at stake.
* Texas at UCLA, September 17 - UCLA going into Austin and whipping Texas was the beginning of the end for the Longhorns last year.


Projected Standings:

Oklahoma | 11-1 | 8-1







Texas A&M | 10-2 | 7-2







Missouri | 9-3 | 6-3







Oklahoma St | 9-3 | 6-3







Texas | 8-4 | 5-4







Baylor | 6-6 | 4-5







Kansas St | 7-5 | 4-5







Texas Tech | 6-6 | 3-6







Iowa St | 3-9 | 1-8







Kansas | 3-9 | 1-8



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