2008 Bowl Picks - Part 3

Outback Bowl
Iowa vs. South Carolina
Tampa, Florida
January 1, 11 AM EST

Analysis: Iowa's season will be remembered for two things, Shonn Green's phenomenal season in which he won the Doak Walker Award and a last second field goal that gave Penn State their only loss in the regular season. Shonn Green was the only running back to rush for more 100 yards in every game this season. Iowa has been a tough out all year, with all four losses coming by a combined 12 points. A couple of more bounces their way, and Iowa could have been playing in the Rose Bowl. Iowa is also coming off an astounding 55-0 win over Minnesota on the road in the last game of the season. South Carolina started off strong winning seven out of ten, and only losing those three by a touchdown each to bowl teams. The last two games were bad though, a 50 point loss to Florida and a 17 point loss to rival Clemson. In those two games, South Carolina gave up 530 rushing yards.
The Pick: Iowa


Capital One Bowl
Georgia vs. Michigan State
Orlando, Florida
January 1, 1 PM EST

Analysis: Georgia was the preseason #1 and had been hyped up all offseason. They were taken down by the two SEC Championship Game participants Alabama and Florida. Despite all of the potential, they didn't beat conference team by more than two touchdowns and lost to rival Georgia Tech in the season finale. Michigan State continues to improve under second year man Dantonio. They were beat solidly by two BCS teams in Ohio State and Penn State. They picked up nine wins, but the best ones were against Iowa and Northwestern. If you like running backs, this game has two of the best with Georgia's Knowshon Moreno and Michigan State's Javon Ringer.
The Pick: Georgia


Konica Minolta Gator Bowl
Nebraska vs. Clemson
Jacksonville, Florida
January 1, 1 PM EST

Analysis: Nebraska had a good season for rookie head coach Bo Pelini. They won eight games and played Virginia Tech and Texas Tech close. The offense has been surprisingly prolific, considering Pelini's defensive background. The defense did improve compared to last season's really poor numbers. In fact they allowed almost nine points and 115 yards per game fewer this season. Clemson had a very strange season with head coach Tommy Bowden getting fired midway through the season. The team had tons of potential, but collapsed under the pressure in the first game of the season. They did win four of the last five games and promoted interim head coach Dabo Swinney to official head coach. This is another game that is difficult to pick, it could go easily either way.
The Pick: Nebraska


Rose Bowl
Penn State vs. USC
Pasadena, California
January 1, 4:30 PM EST

Analysis: This is one of my most eagerly anticipated games. It pits two 11-1 teams that are somehow underrated. Both teams have mind-boggling stats, but neither could overcome the stigma in playing in a weaker conference. Penn State averaged over 40 points per game while holding opponents to under 13. They averaged over 200 yards per game on the ground and through the air while holding opponents to less than 265 total yards per game. The schedule does hurt them, as they only beat four bowl teams. Three of those wins were blowouts and the fourth was against a top ten team on the road. Their only loss was a by a last second field goal at Iowa. USC has similarly impressive stats. They are beating teams by almost 30 points per game, and they are also averaging more than 200 yards on the ground and through the air. They also boast the nation's best defense that has given up fewer than 100 points in the entire season and has held opponents to just over 200 yards per game. They have pitched three shutouts, and only two teams have scored more than 10 points against them. They held Oregon to 10 points and 239 total yards, even though Oregon averaged over 44 points and 500 total yards in their other games. USC beat five bowl teams, but only one was on the road. One advantage that Penn State has is that USC turns the ball over far more often. That might help counteract the home field advantage that USC will enjoy. I can only hope the game lives up to my expectations.
The Pick: USC


FedEx Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Miami, Florida
January 1, 8:30 PM EST

Analysis: Virginia Tech continues to be the star of the ACC, no matter how competitive it gets. They beat Boston College in the conference championship to make it to the Orange Bowl again. It can be argued whether Virginia Tech deserves to be in a BCS Bowl with four losses, but they are here and should play well. Cincinnati won 10 games last season very quietly. This year they won 11 and the Big East conference and are getting more attention. Cincy has beaten some good teams like West Virginia and Pittsburgh to get here, but they also had a bad road loss to Connecticut. I'm not sure how the two teams will match up against each other, but I'm going to keep picking against the ACC in BCS games until they can win their second game. They are holding at 1-9 right now.
The Pick: Cincinnati


AT&T Cotton Bowl
Mississippi vs. Texas Tech
Dallas, Texas
January 2, 2 PM EST

Analysis: Houston Nutt was able to turn the Ole Miss program in his first season, earning an 8-4 record with four close losses. The previous coach Ed Orgeron kept the cupboard stocked, so it's not surprising that a good coach was able to come in and win right away. They beat the past two national champions in Florida and LSU, both on the road. Texas Tech completed their third 11 win season in school history, and only a bad road loss to Oklahoma kept them from running the table. If the BCS allowed in more than two teams per conference, Tech would definitely be invited. They beat two elite teams in Texas and Oklahoma State, although both were at home. They have the best wide receiver in Michael Crabtree, the only two-time Biletnikoff Award winner. This game looks like a mismatch, so I expect Texas Tech to win easily.
The Pick: Texas Tech


AutoZone Liberty Bowl
East Carolina vs. Kentucky
Memphis, Tennessee
January 2, 5 PM EST

Analysis: East Carolina started off hotter than any other team, knocking off two ranked teams (Virginia Tech and West Virginia) in the first two weeks. They had a three game losing streak soon after that to fall from the spotlight, but they came roaring back winning six of the next seven, including the conference championship game at Tulsa. Kentucky started off hot too, winning their first four games. The opponents weren't that tough, but they only allowed 22 points in that span, which is impressive regardless of schedule. They went 2-6 the rest of the way, with both wins coming by a single point each. They lost the last two games against similarly mediocre Vanderbilt and Tennessee teams. East Carolina still may not look as good as they did the first two weeks of the season, but they won't have to against Kentucky.
The Pick: East Carolina


Allstate Sugar Bowl
Utah vs. Alabama
New Orleans, Louisiana
January 2, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Utah will finish the season as the only undefeated team if they win this game. They ran the table in the regular season and played some really good teams along the way. They beat Oregon State, TCU, and BYU and two other bowl teams. It's worrisome that five of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. The 2008 Utah team isn't nearly as dominating as the 2004 Utah team was. Alabama ran the table in the regular season, but lost to Florida in the SEC Championship game. They had dominating wins over Clemson and Georgia early, but then played several unexpectedly close games. Alabama will be without their left tackle Andre Smith who was suspended for the game. Smith was the Outland Trophy winner and is considered the best offensive lineman in the country and a major part of Alabama's success. Utah isn't great at getting to the quarterback, but this can only help them. Most people aren't giving Utah a chance, but this game won't be anything like the Sugar Bowl last season. Utah might not win, but they will play tough.
The Pick: Alabama


International Bowl
Connecticut vs. Buffalo
Toronto, Canada
January 3, Noon EST

Analysis: Connecticut beat one bowl team all season, and it was the team that ended up winning the Big East. They only won two of their last seven games after starting 5-0. They are led by the country's leading rusher Donald Brown. He had 1822 yards and 17 touchdowns. He needs to have a good game for Connecticut to win. Buffalo has been the feel-good story of the year, winning eight games and their conference. Buffalo had won ten games in the seven seasons before Turner Gill arrived. Gill is only 15-22 in three seasons, but he is taking them to their first ever bowl game, and he beat an undefeated Ball State team in the MAC Championship Game.
The Pick: Connecticut


Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Texas vs. Ohio State
Glendale, Arizona
January 5, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Texas might be the best team in the country, but they can only be Fiesta Bowl champs while Oklahoma and Florida battle for it all. Their only loss was on a last second play on the road in their fourth straight game against a ranked team playing a Texas Tech team that finished 11-1. They beat the two teams by double digits that played in the Big XII Championship game. Ohio State was supposed to be an elite team this season, but they lost to USC and Penn State and didn't even win their conference. They are a very talented team, and they should be healthy. It probably won't be a blowout, but Texas should still win by two touchdowns.
The Pick: Texas


GMAC Bowl
Ball State vs. Tulsa
Mobile, Alabama
January 6, 8 PM EST

Analysis: This should be a fun high-scoring game before the BCS National Championship Game. Ball State won every regular season game, but lost to Buffalo in the conference championship game. They have a potent offense led by QB Nate Davis and RB MiQuale Lewis, who have accounted for 52 touchdowns together. Tulsa won ten games this season, but finished poorly. The lost three of the last five, including a 70-30 thumping by Houston and losing the C-USA Championship Game in their home stadium. Tulsa scores a lot more than Ball State, but the average point differential is about the same. Both teams will be looking to rebound from losing their conferences.
The Pick: Ball State

2008 Bowl Picks - Part 2

Independence Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
Shreveport, Louisiana
December 28, 8:15 PM EST

Analysis: Louisiana Tech gets to play in a bowl game within 70 miles of their campus. Their head coach Derek Dooley has the Bulldogs in the postseason for the first time since 2001 in just his second season. Louisiana Tech beat Mississippi State in the first game of the season and had four game conference win streak late in the year. When they shut San Jose State, it was their first shutout in 12 years and their first road shutout in 20 years. Northern Illinois is headed by first year man Jerry Kill. They didn't beat a single bowl team this season, but they had close losses to Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Minnesota and Tennessee. They did end the season on a bad note with a 16-0 loss at home to Navy. Both teams are playing well and will probably continue to improve over the next few years. Expect a close game between two closely matched teams.
The Pick: Louisiana Tech


Papajohns.com Bowl
NC State vs. Rutgers
Birmingham, Alabama
December 29, 3 PM EST

Analysis: NC State had a four game losing streak in the middle of the season that included three home games and left them 2-6. They had to win out just to get an at-large bid, and they did just that including a 41-10 blowout road win over instate rival North Carolina. Head coach Tom O'Brien is 7-1 in bowl games, with the loss coming in the first one he coached. Rutgers finished the season just as hot as NC State did. They started 1-5 with the only win coming against an FCS team. Then they won six straight games to finish 5-2 in conference play. With both teams finishing the season on fire, this is one of the tougher matchups to choose.
The Pick: NC State


Valero Alamo Bowl
Missouri vs. Northwestern
San Antonio, Texas
December 29, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Last season Missouri won the Big XII North, were blown out in the conference championship game by Oklahoma, and then won the bowl game big. This season they've already done the first two, and have a good shot at the third. Mizzou's defense took a step back this season, but the offense still averaged over 43 points per game. Northwestern had their first nine win season since 1996. Northwestern's best win was against Iowa, while they were blown out at home by Michigan State and Ohio State. Like those two games, I think Northwestern won't be able to hang with Missouri.
The Pick: Missouri


Roady's Humanitarian Bowl
Maryland vs. Nevada
Boise, Idaho
December 30, 4:30 PM EST

Analysis: Maryland has been one of the most confusing and inconsistent teams in the country. They limped into the postseason, losing three of their last four including a five touchdown loss to Florida State at home. Nevada is going to their fourth straight bowl game. They run an up-tempo offense that averages over 37 points and 510 yards per game. This game may be decided by which Maryland team shows up to a cold game in Boise.
The Pick: Nevada


Texas Bowl
Western Michigan vs. Rice
Houston, Texas
December 30, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Western Michigan won nine games for the first time since 2000. They won at MAC Champions Buffalo and against Illinois in Detroit. They still finished just third in the MAC West, unable to get past Central Michigan or Ball State. Like Western Michigan, Rice is another nine win team that doesn't get a lot of press. They are led by the senior tandem of QB Chase Clement (96 career TDs) and WR Jarett Dillard (59 career TDs.) Expect a high scoring and fun game to watch if you have the NFL Network.
The Pick: Rice


Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Oklahoma State at Oregon
San Diego, California
December 30, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Like the Texas Bowl that's on at the same time, this game should be a high scoring game between two potent offenses. Oklahoma State won nine games despite finishing fourth in toughest division in the country. All three losses were to teams that finished ahead of them in the division and ranked in the top ten. The Cowboys run a balanced offense that averages over 40 points per game. Oregon has a similar offense that scored only four more points during the season than Oklahoma State. Two of Oregon's losses were to elite teams, and the third was against a good California team. While both offenses score a lot, they are both run dominant.
The Pick: Oklahoma State


Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Houston vs. Air Force
Fort Worth, Texas
December 31, Noon EST

Analysis: This is the second repeat of the bowl season, with Air Force winning 31-28 in the first meeting in Dallas. Houston was still learning Kevin Sumlin's system early in the season, and then they went on to win six of the last eight games. They beat both teams that played in the conference championship during that stretch. A loss to Rice at the end of the season knocked them out of the championship game. Air Force has been a surprising team the past two seasons winning 17 games with the opportunity for one more. They ended the season on a bad note, losing two games albeit to Top 25 teams. These offenses couldn't be more different. Houston averages more than 400 passing yards per game, and Air Force hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in a season. Houston has improved all season, and should be able to avenge the early season loss.
The Pick: Houston


Brut Sun Bowl
Oregon State vs. Pittsburgh
El Paso, Texas
December 31, 2 PM EST

Analysis: Oregon State was a surprising team this season with a shot at winning the Pac-10 until the last game of the season. Freshman RB Jacquizz Rogers was a major part of the big season, including the early upset of USC. Hopefully he will be at full strength for the bowl game after missing the last game of the season with a shoulder injury. Pittsburgh finally had a big season under head coach Dave Wannstedt, although they fell short of a conference crown with a loss at Cincinnati. Pitt has a star RB of their own, LeSean McCoy who has over 1400 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The Pick: Oregon State


Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Boston College vs. Vanderbilt
Nashville, Tennessee
December 31, 3:30 PM EST

Analysis: Boston College has won eight bowl games in the past eight seasons. They just keep rolling despite changing head coaches two seasons ago and losing star QB Matt Ryan last season. Boston College made it to the ACC for the second straight season and but lost to Virginia Tech. Both seasons BC won the regular season game against them and then lost to them in the championship game. Vanderbilt is going to their first bowl game in 26 years and only their fourth ever. They started the season 5-0, but won just one game over the last seven. Both teams have very stout defenses, but Boston College's offense has been better. In fact Vanderbilt has been outscored by their opponents by 11 points this season. For Vanderbilt to win, they need to force turnovers and take advantage of playing in their home town.
The Pick: Boston College


Insight Bowl
Kansas vs. Minnesota
Tempe, Arizona
December 31, 5:30 PM EST

Analysis: Kansas played a much tougher schedule than last season, and it showed in the record. They only won seven games in the regular season instead of 11 like last season. They are coming off a great neutral site win over Missouri in the season finale. Minnesota was dreadful last season, but looked really good at the beginning of the season. They started 7-1, but lost the last four games. It's wort noting that none of the teams they beat finished the season with more than six wins. This one could turn into a laugher.
The Pick: Kansas


Chik-Fil-A Bowl
LSU vs. Georgia Tech
Atlanta, Georgia
December 31, 7:30 PM EST

Analysis: LSU had a disappointing season, finishing with a losing record in conference. QB issues and defensive problems caused their downfall. Their best win was probably at South Carolina. Georgia Tech won nine games under first year head coach Paul Johnson and his triple option offense. They beat three teams that finished in the Top 25 of the BCS standings. They beat instate rival Georgia for the first time since 2000 to end the season. LSU probably doesn't have the defense to stop Tech or the offense to outscore them.
The Pick: Georgia Tech

Update

Coaching Carousel updated with the three latest hires. Ball State, Eastern Michigan, and Iowa State have all filled their vacancies.

17 of 20 jobs have been filled. The only ones currently open are Army, Miami (OH), and New Mexico State.

2008 Bowl Picks - Part 1

Eagle Bank Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Navy
Washington, DC
December 20, 11 AM EST

Analysis: Haven't we already seen this before? Navy beat Wake Forest at their place 24-17 early in the season. After a good start with wins over Mississippi and Florida State, Wake Forest struggled down the stretch losing five games. Four losses were by a touchdown or less, but so were three of the wins. Navy finished the season with a lot of momentum. They had an epic fourth quarter comeback against Temple, pushed Notre Dame to the wire, and beat their final two opponents by a combined score of 50-0. If this game were played at the end of the season I would pick Navy, but Wake Forest knows what they are going up against and have had time to prepare for it.
The Pick: Wake Forest


New Mexico Bowl
Colorado State vs. Fresno State
Albuquerque, New Mexico
December 20, 2:30 PM EST

Analysis: Colorado State did an excellent job in establishing themselves in Steve Fairchild's first year. The only bowl team they beat was Houston. The Rams played tough at home, coming within a score of knocking off both TCU and BYU. Fresno State came into this season with a lot of hype, and knocking off Rutgers and UCLA early had a lot of people thinking this was going to be a special season. Instead they went on to lose five games, although three were only by a field goal. It's worth noting that Fresno missed five field goals in two of those close losses. The season ended on an especially sour note with a 61-10 beatdown by Boise State. Colorado State has established itself as a team to watch next season in the Mountain West, but I think they are in over their heads here.
The Pick: Fresno State


magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis vs. South Florida
St. Petersburg, Florida
December 20, 4:30 PM EST

Analysis: Memphis started out 0-3 before winning six of nine to become bowl eligible in the last week of the season. Three of the wins were by less than a touchdown, and only one was against a bowl team. South Florida was the opposite, starting out 5-0 but then only won two games the rest of the year, and they were against Syracuse and Connecticut at home. I don't know what happened to them, except for a couple of close road losses and a back-loaded schedule. Regardless, South Florida is a much more talented team that Memphis, plus the bowl is right next to Tampa.
The Pick: South Florida


Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
BYU vs. Arizona
Las Vegas, Nevada
December 20, 8 PM EST

Analysis: BYU is playing in this bowl game for the fourth straight year. After going undefeated in conference play for two seasons, they were leapfrogged by Utah and TCU this year. BYU's best win is probably at Air Force, but they dominated several teams. They beat Washington and UCLA in the regular season and are going for their third win against a Pac-10 team. Arizona finally broke through under Mike Stoops and are going to their first bowl since 1998. Losses to Stanford and Oregon State by a total of three points prevented this season from being more special. Both offenses score a lot of points, but neither defense is particularly bad. Expect a lot of points but still a close game.
The Pick: BYU


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Troy
New Orleans, Louisiana
December 21, 8:15 PM EST

Analysis: Southern Miss was down to the wire after five straight losses left them with a 2-6 record. Then they ripped off four straight wins, including one over the conference champion East Carolina, to make it to a bowl game in Larry Fedora's first year. The defense really stepped it up, allowing just 35 points in those four games. Troy continued their Sun Belt dominance, only losing by one point to Louisiana Monroe for their third conference loss in the past three years. Troy is a very good team and the class of their conference, but this Southern Miss team has really bought into Fedora's system and is going to be tough to stop.
The Pick: Southern Miss


SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl
Boise State vs. TCU
San Diego, California
December 23, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Basically this is a BCS bowl game without all of the fanfare (or payout.) Boise State rolled through the season unbeaten with only two close wins. Oregon and Nevada both played them close at their home stadiums, but Boise State still prevailed. Boise State is strong on both sides of the ball, outscoring opponents by over 27 points per game and outgaining them by over 160 yards per game. They've held six opponents to seven points or less, and ten to 16 points or less. Only three teams have held them to less than thirty points. TCU has similarly impressive stats, except that they've lost twice. Both losses were on the road against teams in BCS bowls, and even the Utah loss was only by a field goal. TCU has averaged 35 points per game while giving up just under 11. They allow a paltry 215 yards per game, second only to USC. TCU has allowed seven points or less in seven games, and only Oklahoma put up more than 14 against them. Boise State has risen to every challenge they have faced, but this one may be too great. This TCU defense isn't given enough credit as being one of the best in the nation. This game is the first matchup of great teams, so everyone should watch it. TCU and their defense get the edge here, but I remember what happened the last time I picked against Boise State in a high profile bowl game.
The Pick: TCU


Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. Notre Dame
Honolulu, Hawaii
December 24, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Hawaii makes it to the postseason despite the loss of June Jones, Colt Brennan, and all of the top wide receivers. Due to long trips for opponents, Hawaii has one of the best home field advantages. They won five out of seven home games, and both of the losses were close including one to BCS bound Cincinnati. Greg McMackin should be commended for his first year success. Notre Dame can't seem to get over the hump with Charlie Weis. Despite looking good at times, they couldn't seem to win when it mattered. A close loss at North Carolina, a four OT loss to Pittsburgh, and the unforgivable one point loss to Syracuse at home all but cost Weis his job. Last year, Notre Dame could play the tough schedule card. This year they only beat one bowl team in Navy. Notre Dame has a lot more talent than Hawaii, but will they put it together for the bowl game? They would be smart to arrive a couple of days early so that the players can recover from the long flight and adjust to the time zone difference. That's needed to help negate the home field advantage.
My Pick: Notre Dame


Motor City Bowl
FAU vs. Central Michigan
Detroit, Michigan
December 26, 7:30 PM EST

Analysis: FAU was primed for big season after last year's breakout eight win campaign. Instead they started 1-5 before winning five of the last six. They struggled mostly on the road, which doesn't bode well since the bowl game is played ~150 miles from their opponent's campus. Head coach Howard Schnellenberger has never lost a bowl game, but this will be a tough test. Thanks to Ball State's undefeated regular season, Central Michigan wasn't able to continue their run of MAC titles. Still the only team that really beat them was Georgia, and the last loss was a letdown game against Eastern Michigan after they lost their shot at the conference championship game. Most of their games have been close high-scoring affairs. This one should be no different. This will be Central Michigan's third straight Motor City Bowl appearance, and they always play well in this game.
My Pick: Central Michigan


Meineke Car Care Bowl
West Virginia vs. North Carolina
Charlotte, North Carolina
December 27, 1 PM EST

Analysis: West Virginia was up and down under new head coach Bill Stewart. Two of their losses were in OT, and the loss at Pittsburgh was only be four points. Still their best wins were against teams with 7-5 records. Butch Davis has North Carolina headed in the right direction, although they couldn't break into the top tier of ACC teams this season. Somehow they beat Boston College and Georgia Tech handily, but lost at Virginia and Maryland. Then they were blown out at home by NC State to really take away from a season where they improved their record by four games. While this a very close to being a home game for North Carolina, don't forget how well West Virginia travels. Pat White has a chance to go 4-4 as a starting quarterback in bowl games, and I'm not going to bet against him.
The Pick: West Virginia


Champs Sports Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Florida State
Orlando, Florida
December 27, 4:30 PM

Analysis: Wisconsin had a disappointing season, highlighted by a six game stretch in the middle of the season where they had all five of their losses. They were one of just three teams to lose to Michigan this season. They had three losses by three points or less, but they three wins like that so it balances out. Cal Poly pushed them to OT in the last game of the season, which can't be a good sign for this game. Florida State missed out on playing in the conference championship game with a loss to Boston College. Florida State is trying to get back to being an elite team, but three losses at home really hurt them this year. The most telling stat may be that Florida State has an average point differential of +12, while Wisconsin's is only +3.
The Pick: Florida State


Emerald Bowl
Miami vs. California
San Francisco, California
December 27, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Miami is trying to make it back to prominence, but losing the last two regular season games isn't the way to do it. If they had won both, they would have won the division outright. Miami has been running a two-quarterback system all season, but one of them is suspended for the bowl game. Miami's only road wins were against Texas A&M and Duke, and they have to travel cross-country while California is playing very close to home. California has played well this season with wins over Michigan State and Oregon. All of their losses have come on the road to bowl teams, but this game won't feel like a road game to them. Both teams are very young and will have a lot of returning players next season. A bowl win will do a lot for the confidence of whichever team gets it.
The Pick: California

Update

Coaching Carousel updated on 13 December with the completely unexpected hiring of Gene Chizik at Auburn. I know he was a very successful DC there, most notably during their undefeated 2004 season, but has anything in his head coaching experience shown that he can handle a job like Auburn? This has fail written all over it. Iowa State's head coaching gig is now available.

San Diego State hired away Brady Hoke from Ball State. Hoke chose to tackle the rebuilding project there instead of trying to turn Ball State into a perennial MAC power.

Now 14 of the 20 openings have been filled. Half of the jobs still available are in the MAC.

Update

Coaching Carousel updated on 12 December. Syracuse and Bowling Green have announced their new head coaches while Stan Brock is out at Army.

12 of 18 head coaching vacancies have been filled.

2008 Weekly Picks

In the final week of the regular season, I went 13-3 (81.3%) for my best week since Week 2 percentage-wise.

I finished the regular season with a 576-192 record, which works out to a perfectly even 75%. At this time last season, I was exactly one game below 75%.

Bowl Picks will begin prior to the first bowl game on December 20.

Week 16 Top 25

Oklahoma gets the top spot after the regular season and conference championship games largely in part to beating five teams that finished in the BCS Top 25. Texas beat three such teams, and no other program had more than two. I would have put Texas in the Big XII Championship Game, but since Oklahoma made it instead, they were able to pick up another quality win. That win narrowly gave them the edge over Texas in my final poll.

Florida deserves a lot of credit too. While the Gators only had two wins over BCS Top 25 wins, both were at neutral sites and they also beat seven other bowl teams. Their one loss hurt them, especially since it was at home, but at least Mississippi made strides at the end of the season and finished in the BCS Top 25 (albeit at 25.) No other team can say that they beat nine bowl teams this season.

I had Texas ranked higher than Oklahoma for most of the season, but when the dust settled I too came up with a Oklahoma vs. Florida championship game. I have to leave Texas out of the game because they didn't win their conference (although again I think they should have had that opportunity.)


1 - Oklahoma (2)
2 - Texas (1)
3 - Florida (3)
4 - Alabama (4)
5 - Utah (5)
6 - USC (6)
7 - Boise St (7)
8 - Penn St (8)
9 - Texas Tech (9)
10 - Ohio St (10)
11 - Oklahoma St (12)
12 - TCU (13)
13 - Cincinnati (14)
14 - Michigan St (15)
15 - BYU (16)
16 - Georgia Tech (17)
17 - Ball St (11)
18 - Georgia (19)
19 - Oregon (21)
20 - Northwestern (22)
21 - Pittsburgh (23)
22 - Virginia Tech (UR)
23 - Boston College (18)
24 - Missouri (20)
25 - Western Michigan (25)

Previous week's rank in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Florida St, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oregon St, Tulsa
Added: 22 Virginia Tech
Dropped: 24 Tulsa

Update

Coaching Carousel updated to reflect Toledo and Utah State hiring new head coaches, and the Auburn job coming available.

12/10 Update:

Washington, New Mexico and Mississippi State have hired new head coaches.

Ten of the seventeen vacancies have now been filled.

2008 Weekly Picks

Week 14 Record: 27-14 (65.9%)
Season Record: 563-189 (74.9%)



Wednesday, December 3

MTSU at Louisiana Lafayette


Thursday, December 4

Louisville at Rutgers


Friday, December 5

Buffalo vs Ball St in Detroit (MAC Championship Game)


Saturday, December 6

South Florida at West Virginia
Navy vs Army in Philadelphia
Washington at California
USC at UCLA
Western Kentucky at FIU
Arkansas St at Troy
Arizona St at Arizona
Cincinnati at Hawaii
Alabama vs Florida at Atlanta (SEC Championship Game)
Pittsburgh at Connecticut
Missouri vs Oklahoma at Kansas City (Big XII Championship Game)
East Carolina at Tulsa (C-USA Championship Game)
Virginia Tech vs Boston College at Tampa (ACC Championship Game)

2008 Week 15 Top 25

1 - Texas (2)
2 - Oklahoma (5)
3 - Florida (3)
4 - Alabama (1)
5 - Utah (4)
6 - USC (7)
7 - Boise St (6)
8 - Penn St (8)
9 - Texas Tech (9)
10 - Ohio St (12)
11 - Ball St (13)
12 - Oklahoma St (10)
13 - TCU (15)
14 - Cincinnati (16)
15 - Michigan St (17)
16 - BYU (18)
17 - Georgia Tech (23)
18 - Boston College (24)
19 - Georgia (14)
20 - Missouri (11)
21 - Oregon (20)
22 - Northwestern (21)
23 - Pittsburgh (25)
24 - Tulsa (UR)
25 - Western Michigan (22)

Previous week's rank in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Florida St, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oregon St, Virginia Tech
Added: 24 Tulsa
Dropped: 19 Oregon St

Update

Coaching Carousel updated with a lot of activity this weekend. Mississippi State, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), and New Mexico State are now in the market for a new head coach. Tennessee, Clemson and Wyoming have hired new head coaches, with press conferences expected Monday, December 1.

Five of the sixteen vacancies have been filled. Once the carousel slows down, I will write a post on how good of a hire I think each one was.

2008 Weekly Picks

Week 12 Record: 34-15 (69.4%)
Season Record: 536-175 (75.4%)



Tuesday, November 25

Western Michigan at Ball St
Navy at Northern Illinois


Thursday, November 27

Texas A&M at Texas


Friday, November 28

West Virginia at Pittsburgh
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan
Mississippi St at Mississippi
Ohio at Miami (OH)
UTEP at East Carolina
Akron at Temple
Kent St at Buffalo
LSU vs Arkansas at Little Rock
Colorado at Nebraska
Bowling Green at Toledo
Fresno St at Boise St
UCLA at Arizona


Saturday, November 29

Georgia Tech at Georgia
Miami at NC State
South Carolina at Clemson
Virginia at Virginia Tech
Syracuse at Cincinnati
Kansas vs Missouri at Kansas City
UAB at UCF
Arkansas St at North Texas
Nevada at Louisiana Tech
New Mexico St at Utah St

Southern Miss at SMU
Florida at Florida St
Maryland at Boston College
North Carolina at Duke
Tulane at Memphis
Houston at Rice
Tulsa at Marshall
Auburn at Alabama
Baylor at Texas Tech
FIU vs FAU at Miami

Kentucky at Tennessee
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest
Oregon at Oregon St
Notre Dame at USC
Oklahoma at Oklahoma St
Washington St at Hawaii

Update

Coaching Carousel updated today. Lots of movement with Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, and San Diego State all firing their coaches. Kansas State re-hired Bill Snyder, who was the head coach there for 17 years before retiring.

Currently there are 12 programs that will change head coaches this offseason. Only two have been filled thus far.

2008 Week 14 Top 25

1 - Alabama (1)
2 - Texas (3)
3 - Florida (4)
4 - Utah (6)
5 - Oklahoma (9)
6 - Boise St (8)
7 - USC (5)
8 - Penn St (7)
9 - Texas Tech (2)
10 - Oklahoma St (10)
11 - Missouri (11)
12 - Ohio St (12)
13 - Ball St (13)
14 - Georgia (14)
15 - TCU (15)
16 - Cincinnati (19)
17 - Michigan St (16)
18 - BYU (18)
19 - Oregon St (21)
20 - Oregon (22)
21 - Northwestern (25)
22 - Western Michigan (23)
23 - Georgia Tech (UR)
24 - Boston College (UR)
25 - Pittsburgh (17)

Previous week's rank in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: California, Central Michigan, Florida St, Tulsa, West Virginia
Added: 23 Georgia Tech, 24 Boston College
Dropped: 20 North Carolina, 24 LSU

Update

Coaching Carousel updated with the recent firings of Greg Robinson at Syracuse and Brent Guy at Utah State, and the resigning of Rocky Long at New Mexico.

2008 Weekly Picks

Week 12 Record: 37-13 (74%)
Season Record: 502-160 (75.8%)



Tuesday, November 18

Northern Illinois at Kent St


Wednesday, November 19

Ball St at Central Michigan


Thursday, November 20

Miami at Georgia Tech


Friday, November 21

Buffalo at Bowling Green
Miami (OH) at Toledo
Fresno St at San Jose St


Saturday, November 22

West Virginia at Louisville
NC State at North Carolina
Army at Rutgers
Michigan at Ohio St
Clemson at Virginia
Indiana at Purdue
Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Eastern Michigan at Temple
Citadel at Florida
UCF at Memphis

Colorado St at Wyoming
Syracuse at Notre Dame
Arkansas at Mississippi St
Tulane at Tulsa
Marshall at Rice
Washington at Washington St
FAU at Arkansas St
Stanford at California
Illinois at Northwestern
Mississippi at LSU

Boston College at Wake Forest
Akron at Ohio
Michigan St at Penn St
Cal Poly at Wisconsin
Iowa St at Kansas St
North Texas at MTSU
Air Force at TCU
East Carolina at UAB
Louisiana Tech at New Mexico St
Boise St at Nevada

UTEP at Houston
Duke at Virginia Tech
BYU at Utah
Oregon St at Arizona
Iowa at Minnesota
Louisiana Monroe at FIU
Louisiana Lafayette at Troy
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Florida St at Maryland
UNLV at San Diego St

Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Idaho at Hawaii


Sunday, November 23

Connecticut at South Florida

2008 Week 13 Top 25

1 - Alabama (1)
2 - Texas Tech (2)
3 - Texas (3)
4 - Florida (4)
5 - USC (5)
6 - Utah (7)
7 - Penn St (6)
8 - Boise St (9)
9 - Oklahoma (8)
10 - Oklahoma St (10)
11 - Missouri (11)
12 - Ohio St (12)
13 - Ball St (13)
14 - Georgia (14)
15 - TCU (16)
16 - Michigan St (17)
17 - Pittsburgh (18)
18 - BYU (19)
19 - Cincinnati (20)
20 - North Carolina (15)
21 - Oregon St (UR)
22 - Oregon (UR)
23 - Western Michigan (UR)
24 - LSU (23)
25 - Northwestern (UR)

Previous week's rank in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Central Michigan, Maryland, Miami, Tulsa, West Virginia
Added: 21 Oregon St, 22 Oregon, 23 Western Michigan, 25 Northwestern
Dropped: 21 Tulsa, 22 Florida St, 24 California, 25 Air Force

2008 Weekly Picks

Week 11 Record: 37-17 (68.5%)
Season Record: 466-146 (76.0%)


Tuesday, November 11

Ball St at Miami (OH)


Wednesday, November 12

Temple at Kent St
Central Michigan at Northern Illinois


Thursday, November 13

Buffalo at Akron
Virginia Tech at Miami
Wyoming at UNLV


Friday, November 14

Cincinnati at Louisville


Saturday, November 15

Rutgers at South Florida
Northwestern at Michigan
Indiana at Penn St
Duke at Clemson
Ohio St at Illinois
Purdue at Iowa
Notre Dame at Navy in Baltimore
Georgia at Auburn
Texas at Kansas St
MTSU at Western Kentucky

New Mexico at Colorado St
Louisiana Monroe at Mississippi
Toledo at Western Michigan
Utah St at Louisiana Tech
East Carolina at Southern Miss
UAB at Tulane
South Carolina at Florida
North Carolina at Maryland
Wake Forest at NC State
California at Oregon St

Minnesota at Wisconsin
BYU at Air Force
Nebraska at Kansas St
Texas A&M at Baylor
Louisiana Lafayette at FAU
San Jose St at Nevada
UCF at Marshall
Boise St at Idaho
New Mexico St at Fresno St
Washington St at Arizona St

Missouri at Iowa St
Arizona at Oregon
USC at Stanford
Connecticut at Syracuse
Mississippi St at Alabama
Utah at San Diego St
Oklahoma St at Colorado
Boston College at Florida St
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Troy at LSU

Tulsa at Houston
SMU at UTEP
UCLA at Washington

Update

Coaching Carousel updated on November 10th to add Brady Hoke and Turner Gill as head coaches who might be getting a promotion. I also added my personal take on if I felt each coach's dismissal was warranted or not.

2008 Week 12 Top 25

1 - Alabama (1)
2 - Texas Tech (3)
3 - Texas (4)
4 - Florida (5)
5 - USC (6)
6 - Penn St (2)
7 - Utah (9)
8 - Oklahoma (8)
9 - Boise St (10)
10 - Oklahoma St (8)
11 - Missouri (12)
12 - Ohio St (13)
13 - Ball St (14)
14 - Georgia (15)
15 - North Carolina (18)
16 - TCU (11)
17 - Michigan St (19)
18 - Pittsburgh (21)
19 - BYU (17)
20 - Cincinnati (UR)
21 - Tulsa (22)
22 - Florida St (UR)
23 - LSU (16)
24 - California (20)
25 - Air Force (UR)

Previous week's rank in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Oregon St, South Carolina, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Western Michigan
Added: 20 Cincinnati, 22 Florida St, 25 Air Force
Dropped: 23 Minnesota, 24 Georgia Tech, 25 West Virginia

Update

Coaching Carousel updated on November 5th to include Ron Prince out at Kansas State. Also, I added potential candidates and my choice for each of the six vacant positions.

2008 Weekly Picks

Week 10 Record: 35-19 (64.8%)
Season Record: 463-149 (75.7%)

Tuesday, November 4

Miami (OH) at Buffalo


Wednesday, November 5

Toledo at Akron
Northern Illinois at Ball St


Thursday, November 6

TCU at Utah
Maryland at Virginia Tech


Friday, November 7

Nevada at Fresno St


Saturday, November 8

Clemson at Florida St
Ohio St at Northwestern
Wisconsin at Indiana
Georgia at Kentucky
Purdue at Michigan St
Michigan at Minnesota
Georgia Tech at North Carolina
Virginia at Wake Forest
Syracuse at Rutgers
Louisville at Pittsburgh

Western Michigan vs Illinois at Detroit
Kansas St at Missouri
Kansas at Nebraska
Florida at Vanderbilt
Oklahoma at Texas A&M
Baylor at Texas
Arkansas at South Carolina
Wyoming at Tennessee
Oklahoma St at Texas Tech
Iowa St at Colorado

Utah St at Boise St
Bowling Green at Ohio
San Diego St at BYU
Tennessee-Martin at Auburn
Army at Rice
Memphis at SMU
Alabama at LSU
NC State at Duke
Marshall at East Carolina
Southern Miss at UCF

Penn St at Iowa
Louisiana Monroe at MTSU
Stanford at Oregon
Western Kentucky at Troy
Hawaii at New Mexico St
North Texas at FAU
Arizona at Washington St
Oregon St at UCLA
Colorado St at Air Force
Arizona St at Washington

Cincinnati at West Virginia
UTEP at Louisiana Lafayette
Arkansas St at FIU
Louisiana Tech at San Jose St
California at USC
Notre Dame at Boston College
Tulane at Houston
New Mexico at UNLV

Update

Coaching Carousel updated on November 3, 2008.

2008 Week 11 Top 25

1 - Alabama (2)
2 - Penn St (3)
3 - Texas Tech (8)
4 - Texas (1)
5 - Florida (4)
6 - USC (5)
7 - Oklahoma St (6)
8 - Oklahoma (7)
9 - Utah (9)
10 - Boise St (10)
11 - TCU (13)
12 - Missouri (14)
13 - Ohio St (15)
14 - Ball St (16)
15 - Georgia (11)
16 - LSU (17)
17 - BYU (19)
18 - North Carolina (21)
19 - Michigan St (22)
20 - California (24)
21 - Pittsburgh (25)
22 - Tulsa (22)
23 - Minnesota (18)
24 - Georgia Tech (UR)
25 - West Virginia (UR)

Previous week's rank in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Cincinnati, Florida St, Maryland, Northwestern, Notre Dame
Added: 24 Georgia Tech, 25 West Virginia
Dropped: 20 Florida St, 23 South Florida

Coaching Carousel

New Coach Announced

Joe Tiller (Purdue): Tiller decided to retire at the end of the 2008 season, and a succession plan was put in place last offseason. Danny Hope, the former Eastern Kentucky head coach, was hired to be the O-line coach for Tiller's last season, and then take over as head coach in 2009.
Purdue Hired: Danny Hope


Phil Fulmer (Tennessee): Fulmer is officially out at the end of the season. He has had a long and successful run at Tennessee, but two losing seasons in four years is still fresh in the minds of Vol fans. A lot of names are going to be thrown around from now until the end of the season. Tennessee will want to make a splashy hire and has the money to do it.
My Take: Fulmer was just in the SEC Championship Game last year. I don't think he deserved to be relieved of his duties after a lifetime of commitment to Tennessee. Also what is bad for Tennessee is the lack of high-profile coaches available. They will be able to spend millions, but who out there is really worth it? I think this was a bad move for them.
Possibilities: Tim Brewster, Jon Gruden, Lane Kiffin, Mike Leach, Will Muschamp
I would hire: Tim Brewster maybe ...
Tennessee Hired: Lane Kiffin


Tommy Bowden (Clemson): Bowden left the program after six games with just one win over an FBS team. It was a preseason filled with expectations for Clemson, but an opening weekend loss to Alabama seemed to destroy their confidence. After falling to 1-2 in conference play, Bowden offered his resignation. Assistant head coach Dabo Swinney was named the interim head coach for the rest of the season.
My Take: Bowden had plenty of opportunities to have Clemson as the class of the ACC. He repeatedly squandered them, and since Clemson the resources to be better, it was time for a change.
Possibilities: David Cutcliffe, Bud Foster, Jim Grobe, Brian Kelly, Lane Kiffin, Will Muschamp, Dabo Swinney, Tommy Tuberville?, Brent Venables
I would hire: Brian Kelly (assuming Jim Grobe doesn't want it)
Clemson Hired: Dabo Swinney


Ron Prince (Kansas State): Prince will not return as the head coach of Kansas State in 2009. It seems too soon, since this is only his third season. He led Kansas State to their only win ever over a top ten team on the road in 2007 when they beat Texas. With a record hovering around .500 for his tenure and an outside chance at a bowl game, this one caught me off guard.
My Take: This seemed way too soon for a coach that didn't have great success yet, but wasn't tanking the program either. Prince deserved at least another year or two.
Possibilities: Todd Graham, Will Muschamp, Gary Patterson (KSU alum), Brent Venables (KSU alum)
I would hire: Gary Patterson if I could
Kansas State Hired: Bill Snyder


Joe Glenn (Wyoming): Glenn finished his sixth year at Wyoming with only one bowl appearance. The futility worsened this season, with the offense averaging less than thirteen points per game and the defense giving up over double that. Wyoming has been held to one score or less in five of their games and has been shut out twice. I thought he might have saved his job with a win over Tennessee, but I guess that wasn't enough.
My Take: The Mountain West is an improving conference, but Wyoming wasn't moving forward like the upper echelon of the conference. The change is understandable.
Possibilities: Gary Barnett, John L. Smith
I would hire: TBD
Wyoming Hired: Dave Christensen (Missouri OC)


Tom Amstutz (Toledo): Sources are reporting that Amstutz in stepping down as head coach at the end of the season. He averaged nine wins a season for his first five seasons, but the last three haven't up to expectations. In his defense, this season Toledo has lost two one-point games and beat Michigan. They could very easily be sitting at 4-4 right now instead of 2-6. Amstutz was preceded by two great coaches (Nick Saban, Gary Pinkel), and they will be looking for another up-and-coming coach that will hopefully be of the same caliber.
My Take: Amstutz's best years were obviously his first ones and the past three were disappointing. The firing came as a bit of a surprise to me, especially midseason, but it wasn't as shocking as some of the others.
Possibility: Rob Spence (Clemson OC and former Toledo OC), Mark Stoops (Arizona DC), Matt Eberflus (Missouri DC)
I would hire: Rob Spence
Toledo Hired: Tim Beckman (Oklahoma State DC)


Brent Guy (Utah State): Guy was fired just before completing his fourth season with Utah State. His record was 8-38 during his tenure. Guy wasn't listed on my "Hot Seat" list, but with that record it wasn't that unexpected either. Utah State hasn't been to a bowl game since 1997 when John L. Smith was their head coach. There is some talk that Utah State may try to hire him again.
My Take: Utah State doesn't have a great tradition of winning, so it's not like Guy had taken the program way down. I would have given him more time to build the program.
Possibilities: Kent Baer, Mike Canales, John L. Smith, DeWayne Walker
I would hire: TBD
Utah State Hired: Gary Andersen (Utah DC)


Ty Willingham (Washington): Willingham was recently forced out, effective at the end of the season. Washington is currently one of just two winless teams in the country. This decision was not a surprise to anyone, as he was known to be on the hot seat at the beginning of the year. This vacancy will be one of the biggest this offseason, with several suitors already lined up.
My Take: Willingham was a good coach at Stanford, but he hasn't been able to repeat that success at Notre Dame or Washington. Washington is a great job, and the right coach will be able to turn them around quickly.
Possibilities: Dave Christensen, Pat Hill, Lane Kiffin, Chris Petersen, Gary Pinkel, Steve Sarkisian, Kyle Whittingham
I would hire: With Kiffin going to Tennessee, I would pursue Chris Petersen and Kyle Whittingham
Washington Hired: Steve Sarkisian (USC OC)


Rocky Long (New Mexico): Long resigned of his own accord after New Mexico finished their season with a loss to Colorado State. They were only 4-8 this season, but they had won between six and eight games the six previous years and went to five bowl games. For some reason Long felt like he is no longer the right man for the job and stepped down. With the Mountain West being as strong as it is, New Mexico will need to bring in a really good coach if they want to compete for the conference.
My Take: This seemed to be just one bad year after several winning ones. Hopefully this was his choice, and he wasn't pushed out behind the scenes.
Possibilities: DeWayne Walker
I would hire: TBD
New Mexico Hired: Mike Locksley (Illinois OC)


Sylvester Croom (Mississippi State): Croom announced his resignation after a 4-8 season and a 45-0 loss to rival Mississippi in the Egg Bowl. Croom was 28-31 in five years, not that bad for a rebuilding project. Last year he was the SEC Coach of the Year after leading Mississippi State to a 8-5 record and a Liberty Bowl win. He teams were characterized by strong defenses and inept offenses. I'm surprised that he didn't try to hire a new offensive coordinator instead of stepping down.
My Take: I'm surprised to see Croom step down. He's a great defensive coach, and hopefully he catches on as a coordinator somewhere. I hope he wasn't forced out.
Possibilities: Tommy Bowden, Derek Dooley, Brady Hoke, Skip Holtz, Ellis Johnson, Dan Mullen, Charlie Strong
I Would Hire: Maybe Dooley, maybe take a chance on someone from Florida's staff
Mississippi State Hired: Dan Mullen (Florida OC)


Gregg Brandon (Bowling Green): Brandon was fired after six seasons although he finished with at least six wins in five of them. He was 44-30 in that time and took them to three bowl games, winning two. Bowling Green was supposed to compete for the MAC East title, and they fell just six points short from winning it against Buffalo. That was one of four close losses. Some of the losses were to bad teams, but they were always close except for Minnesota. They also beat a very good Pittsburgh team in the opener.
My Take: This was a bad move. I understand that they lost to Eastern Michigan and Miami (OH), but they were still in the race for the division title. With Turner Gill at Buffalo probably moving on, you had to think Bowling Green would be the favorite again next year with the same head coach.
Possibilities: TBD
I Would Hire: TBD
Bowling Green Hired: Dave Clawson (Tennessee OC and former Richmond HC)


Greg Robinson (Syracuse): Robinson has officially been fired following Syracuse's last home game against Connecticut. With two road games left on the schedule, Robinson might not even win his tenth game in four seasons. His current record as head coach of Syracuse is 9-36. Syracuse will look to make a big hire, but may have trouble competing against Tennessee, Clemson, Washington, etc.
My Take: This wasn't a surprise at all, as Robinson seemed unable to get the Syracuse program moving in the right direction. He is probably best suited as a defensive coordinator instead of a head coach.
Possibilities: Randy Edsall, Turner Gill, Al Golden, Brady Hoke, Skip Holtz
I would hire: Turner Gill, he built a program up from nothing to be a conference champion in the same part of the country.
Syracuse Hired: Doug Marrone (Saints OC and SU Alum)


Tommy Tuberville (Auburn): There have been a lot of rumors about Tuberville being fired, but I think they are just that, rumors. The only year he didn't finish with a winning record was his first season when he was 5-6. Since then he has been to eight bowl games, won five, averaged over nine wins a season, had an unbeaten season, and won the SEC West twice in eight years. Both coordinators were replaced last offseason, and the transition has not been smooth. The Tigers will need an upset to get to bowl eligibility, but even if they don't, I think Tuberville has done enough at Auburn to allow him to survive a losing season. Update: Tuberville resigned after meeting with the Auburn athletic director for several days.
My Take: Just days after publicly stating that he was the man to rebuild the Auburn program, Tuberville resigned as head coach. The athletic director claims it was entirely Tuberville's decision, and that he begged him not to go. That just doesn't add up, but we may never know the full story of what happened in those meetings.
Possibilities: Derek Dooley, Jimbo Fisher, Turner Gill, Todd Graham, Jim Grobe, Brady Hoke, Mike Leach, Will Muschamp, Patrick Nix, Gary Patterson, Steve Spurrier
I Would Hire: Grobe may be the best option, but even Nebraska couldn't pull him away from Wake Forest. Muschamp and Fisher are both coaches-in-waiting and unlikely to leave their current post. Leach isn't a good fit and is probably happy where he is. Spurrier might not interested. Patterson is probably my second choice. None of the other options appear ready to take over a top job like Auburn.
Auburn Hired: Gene Chizik (Iowa State HC)


Chuck Long (San Diego State): Long had a 9-27 record at San Diego State, including losses to FCS member Cal Poly and a 70-7 debacle at New Mexico. Cal Poly also beat San Diego State in 2006, Long's first season. Long surprising finished the season with a win over UNLV, knocking them out of bowl eligibility, but that wasn't enough to save his job. Long was an up-and-coming coordinator, and it will be interesting to see if San Diego State goes a different direction this time. They may require the replacement to have head coaching experience. It's worth noting that Long had an annual salary of over $700k, so SDSU has money to hire a known coach.
My Take: Chuck Long was another good offensive coordinator who couldn't make the transition to head coach. Long will land on his feet as an OC somewhere, and San Diego State will have the chance to start over with a new man at the helm.
Possibilities: Terry Bowden, Dennis Franchione, Bobby Hauck (Montana HC), Brady Hoke, Chip Kelly, Glen Mason, DeWayne Walker
I would hire: TBD
San Diego State Hired: Brady Hoke (Ball State HC)


Brady Hoke (Ball State): Hoke took his alma mater to an undefeated regular season before losing in the MAC Championship Game to Buffalo. It's not surprising that he left for the San Diego State opening, since he stated that he wanted another challenge and the Aztecs can offer him 2-3x his current salary. Whoever fills this slot will be stepping into a good situation, as Nate Davis and MiQuale Lewis should return for their senior seasons.
My Take: Hoke knew that outside of actually winning the MAC Championship Game, there wasn't much else he could accomplish at Ball State. He left to try to build San Diego State into a competitor in the Mountain West, which is no small feat.
Possibilities: TBD
I Would Hire: TBD
Ball State Hired: Stan Parrish (Ball State OC)


Jeff Genyk (Eastern Michigan): Genyk spent five seasons at Eastern Michigan, but failed to win more than four games in any season. He has the unenviable position of coaching in the MAC West, which has four of the top five teams in the conference this season. Eastern Michigan hasn't had a winning season since 1995 and hasn't been to a bowl game since 1987. Athletic Director Derrick Gragg said it best, "Winning consistently in football has been a challenge for our institution long before the arrival of coach Genyk."
My Take: I'm not surprised Genyk is gone, but I wonder if they will be able to get another coach who make them competitive in the MAC.
Possibilities: TBD
I would hire: TBD
Eastern Michigan Hired: Ron English (Louisville DC)


Gene Chizik (Iowa State): Auburn hired away Chizik although he was only 5-19 during his two-year stint there. I thought Iowa State might be looking for a new coach soon, but not because another program hired theirs away. The Iowa State AD said that he was 'disappointed' in Chizik's decision, but I wonder if he wasn't a little relieved to start over. Iowa State beat South Dakota State and Kent State to start this season, and then went on to lose ten straight games including all eight conference games.
My Take: Iowa State should be quietly pleased with this move. Their head coach is someone else's problem now. Now they just need to find a head coach who can be successful.
Possibilities: I haven't heard any names yet, but they will probably look into Mark Farley, Turner Gill, Todd Graham, Brent Venables
I Would Hire: Nebraska alum Turner Gill may want to coach in the Big XII. Northern Iowa head coach Mark Farley who has a 75-28 record in eight seasons, five Missouri Valley Conference titles, and five playoff appearances would be a good hire too.
Iowa State Hired: Paul Rhoads (Auburn DC)


Shane Montgomery (Miami (OH)): Montgomery resigned after completing a 2-10 season, dropping his overall record to 17-31. He had the RedHawks in the MAC Championship game last year, but they lost that game and fell to 6-7 and were kept out of a bowl game. They were the only MAC team to record only one conference win this season. Oddly enough that win was against Bowling Green, one of the better teams in the East.
My Take: Montgomery had his best year the season after Terry Hoeppner left, and his other decent season was when the entire MAC was down. He probably wasn't ever going to do much. The only concern is all the open jobs in the conference. They will be competing against several similar schools for a new head coach.
Possibilities: TBD
I Would Hire: TBD
Miami (OH) hired: Mike Haywood (Notre Dame OC)


Hal Mumme (New Mexico State): Mumme was fired after finishing his fourth season with a 11-38 record. I should mention that five of the eleven wins were against FCS teams. He was able to beat regional rival UTEP the past two seasons and somehow win at Nevada this year, but still too many losses piled up. It's hard to have high expectations at New Mexico State, since they haven't been to a bowl game since 1960 and have only had four winning seasons in the past 40 years.
My Take: Mumme was supposed to bring his high-octane offense, except it only worked some of the time and the defense never did. He couldn't get the Aggies out of the bottom tier of the WAC, so the move makes some sense.
Possibilities: TBD
I Would Hire: TBD
New Mexico State hired: DeWayne Walker (UCLA DC)


Stan Brock (Army): Brock was fired after going 3-9 in both seasons as Army's head coach. His cardinal sin must have been losing to Navy badly both times they played each other. I thought his team was improving this season with a win over bowl-bound Louisiana Tech. Army also had close losses at Texas A&M, at the MAC Champions Buffalo, and at 9-3 Rice. Perhaps with the successes at Air Force and Navy, Army felt that it needed to make a change.
My Take: How can you give a guy at Army only two years to turn it around? It's difficult to find the right guy to coach a service academy. Stan Brock may have been that guy, but he needed more time to get there.
Possibilities: TBD
I Would Hire: TBD
Army hired: Rich Ellerson (Cal Poly HC)


Jeff Jagodzinkski (Boston College): Jagodzinski was fired after the bowl season was over for interviewing for the New York Jets head coaching vacancy. He had taken Boston College to the ACC Championship Game both years he was there. The athletic director at BC felt that Jagodzinski was being disloyal by interviewing elsewhere, and wanted to replace him with someone who is more likely to fulfill their contract.
My Take: Jagodzinski was successful at BC, and this was the first time he interviewed for another job. It's not like he had a wandering eye and was going after several jobs that were available. It seems to me like the AD overreacted. Jagodzinski is a good coach who will catch on somewhere, whether or not the Jets hire him.
Possibilities: Frank Spaziani (DC), Steve Logan (OC), Jack Bicknell Jr (assistant HC)
I Would Hire: TBD
Boston College hired: Frank Spaziani


On the Hot Seat

Mark Snyder (Marshall): Snyder's seat was a whole lot warmer until this past Tuesday, when his team not just beat, but dominated, a rising Houston team. The road is tough for the rest of the season, but Marshall controls their destiny in the C-USA East division. Their next game at East Carolina will have major division champion implications. Snyder's fate may be decided by whether or not he makes it to a bowl this season. Update: Marshall's athletic director has made the statement that Snyder will return as head coach next year.


Getting a Promotion (Head Coaches)

Kyle Whittingham (Utah): In 2004 head coach Urban Meyer led Utah to an undefeated season and a BCS bowl victory. That success earned him the head coaching job at Florida. Four years later, his sucessor may be taking the same career path. If Whittingham can finish the season unbeaten, he will have Utah playing in a BCS bowl, and he will be one of the hottest names for any major opening.

Bronco Mendenhall (BYU): Surprisingly, Mendenhall was never mentioned for any head coaching gigs last season. All he had done was lead BYU to two straight 11 win seasons. The loss to TCU this season was hurtful, but before that he had won 18 straight conference games. While BYU won't be in the BCS this year, they should have another 10+ win season. I expect Mendenhall to be on the radar screen this offseason.

Chris Petersen (Boise State): All Chris Petersen has done has taken all of Dan Hawkins success here, and somehow built on it. In his first season as a head coach, he led Boise to an unbeaten season and the Fiesta Bowl, where they stunned Oklahoma. In his second year, he only went 10-3. This year he's back to his old ways, winning his first seven games and will be favored to win the next five. This season is proving that he is capable of having his own success and not just building on what his predecessor had accomplished.

Todd Graham (Tulsa): Another leader of an unbeaten team who may be getting a big payday at the end of the year. Graham was originally the defensive coordinator at Tulsa, but it has been his team's offensive success that has garnered all the attention. They averaged over 40 ppg in his first season, and are averaging over 55 ppg through the first eight games of this season. His most impressive feat may be taking Rice to their first bowl game in 45 years in his only season as head coach there.

Randy Edsall (Connecticut): Edsall has been building the Connecticut team from an FCS team to a competitive team in the Big East. He won nine games in 2007, and had a 6-2 record so far this year. He may not be many lists, but Syracuse may try to hire him away. Edsall played QB for Syracuse in the late 1970's and might want to return to his alma mater.

Skip Holtz (East Carolina): Holtz started off the season with a bang with two huge wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. A three-game losing streak stopped a lot of the national attention he was getting, but a strong finish to the season could change all that. If Holtz could end the season with a big win like the one he had last year against Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl, the suitors will come.

Tim Brewster (Minnesota): What Brewster has done at Minnesota has been one of the stranger stints I've seen by a head coach. He was brought in to re-energize the fan base with a new on-campus stadium being constructed. His first season, he went 1-11 and needed double overtime to beat Miami (OH). In year two, he is somehow 7-1 with the only loss coming at Ohio State. With three of the last four games on the schedule at home, Minnesota should be going to a major bowl, possibly even a BCS bowl. While Brewster has said he is committed to Minnesota, other schools are definitely taking note of his success.

Lane Kiffin (ex-Oakland Raiders): Kiffin was fired as head coach of the Oakland Raiders early in the season, but before that he spent six successful seasons with USC. He was their offensive coordinator in 2005 and 2006. He has expressed interest in the Washington vacancy and is also been mentioned as a possibility for Syracuse.

Brian Kelly (Cincinnati): I'm adding Kelly to the list because he might get his third straight 10-win season. I'm sure that will attract the attention of some athletic directors around the country. After turning Grand Valley State into a powerhouse (41-2, 2 national titles in his last three seasons), he took Central Michigan to a 10-4 season in his third year there. Continued success at Cincinnati may get him another quick promotion.

David Cutcliffe (Duke): If you haven't noticed, Cutcliffe has Duke with a .500 record eight games into the season. Next week they host a beatable NC State team, and a win would put them one upset away from bowl eligibility. A feat such as that in one season at Duke is worth rewarding. I don't know if Cutcliffe will want to leave that quickly, but he will be looked at by several schools.

Brady Hoke (Ball State): Hoke's success at his alma mater is garnering a lot of attention. This season's highlights include a 9-0 start so far, Ball State's first win over a BCS team (Indiana), and first appearance in the Top 25 polls. Even if Ball State loses this season, Hoke will be targeted this offseason. If a Big Ten job opens up, or if Brian Kelly leaves Cincinnati, look for Brady Hoke to be mentioned and possibly hired.

Turner Gill (Buffalo): Turner Gill has Buffalo playing hard and winning games. Last year, their five wins were the most in a season since 1996 when they were a 1-AA team. This year he has them with five wins again, but there are still three games to be played. Gill could have his Bulls playing in the MAC Championship Game and/or a bowl game in his third season. Nebraska, his alma mater, interviewed him for their vacancy last season. Expect him to get more interviews this offseason, perhaps by Syracuse which is only about 150 miles away.


Getting a Promotion (Coordinators)

Will Muschamp (DC - Texas): Muschamp has been the source of many rumors, and it seems like he is just waiting for the right head coaching job to come available. He left Auburn to go to Texas, but it's probably just a one year stay there. He has spent his entire coaching career in the southeast, so he might be interested in the Clemson job or if one of the SEC jobs come open. Muschamp has been named the head coach in waiting at Texas, an interesting move since Mack Brown doesn't appear to be retiring anytime soon. I don't think this move takes his name entirely off the market.

Chip Kelly (OC - Oregon): Chip Kelly has re-invented Oregon's offense and has taken it to the next level. He has only been at Oregon for two seasons, and before that he was the OC at New Hampshire for eight years. Look for his name to be brought up a lot this offseason. Kelly has been named Oregon's head coach in waiting to replace Mike Belotti when he retires from coaching and takes the Oregon AD job.

Dave Christensen (OC - Missouri): With the Missouri offense humming so well the past two seasons, some teams are bound to start courting Christensen. He was a finalist for the Washington State job last year. He may make the jump at the end of this season, when his stock is the highest.

Steve Sarkisian (OC - USC): Sarkisian turned down the Oakland Raiders head coaching job two years ago, stating that he wanted to coach in college instead. With the Washington job coming open, he may get his chance. He has publicly stated that he would be interested in the job if the school contacted him.

Gus Malzahm (OC - Tulsa): Malzahn has helped architect the explosive offenses of Tulsa the past two years and Arkansas the year before. Both he and his head coach Todd Graham will hear their names in the rumor mill a lot this offseason. If Graham does leave, I expect Tulsa to immediately offer the job to Malzahn.

Brent Venables (DC - Oklahoma): Venables has already been interviewed by Clemson, and it probably won't be his only one this year. The question will be if he wants to go straight to a top job, or he wants to cut his teeth somewhere else first. Clemson appears to be the only 'big-name' program considering him. His alma mater Kansas State was a definite possibility until they rehired Bill Snyder.

DeWayne Walker (DC - UCLA): Walker's name has been linked to several job openings, especially in the West. Walker stayed the defensive coordinator at UCLA through the head coaching change last year. He has admitted speaking to officials from New Mexico and Utah State. There's a good chance he stays at UCLA, but if he did leave, it would probably be to the more attractive jobs at San Diego State or New Mexico.

2008 Weekly Picks

Week 9 Record: 35-14 (71.4%)
Season Record: 397-112 (78%)

Tuesday, October 28

Buffalo at Ohio
Houston at Marshall


Thursday, October 30

South Florida at Cincinnati


Saturday, November 1

West Virginia at Connecticut
Central Michigan at Indiana
Wisconsin at Michigan St
Northwestern at Minnesota
Miami at Virginia
Air Force at Army
Michigan at Purdue
Auburn at Mississippi
Kansas St at Kansas
Tulsa at Arkansas

Kent St at Bowling Green
Colorado at Texas A&M
Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan
San Diego St at Wyoming
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
Kentucky at Mississippi St
Fresno St at Louisiana Tech
Missouri at Baylor
Hawaii at Utah St
Arkansas St at Alabama

Oregon at California
Florida St at Georgia Tech
Georgia vs. Florida in Jacksonville
Clemson at Boston College
Duke at Wake Forest
Iowa St at Oklahoma St
Iowa at Illinois
Temple at Navy
North Texas at Western Kentucky
Washington St at Stanford

San Jose St at Idaho
FIU at Louisiana Lafayette
BYU at Colorado St
Washington at USC
Boise St at New Mexico St
Louisville at Syracuse
Troy at Louisiana Monroe
Tennessee at South Carolina
Tulane at LSU
Nebraska at Oklahoma

TCU at UNLV
UAB at Southern Miss
Texas at Texas Tech
Rice at UTEP
Utah at New Mexico
Arizona St at Oregon St


Sunday, November 2

East Carolina at UCF

2008 Week 10 Top 25

1 - Texas (1)
2 - Alabama (2)
3 - Penn St (3)
4 - Florida (6)
5 - USC (7)
6 - Oklahoma St (4)
7 - Oklahoma (5)
8 - Texas Tech (9)
9 - Utah (8)
10 - Boise St (11)
11 - Georgia (10)
12 - Tulsa (13)
13 - TCU (16)
14 - Missouri (20)
15 - Ohio St (12)
16 - Ball St (17)
17 - LSU (14)
18 - Minnesota (21)
19 - BYU (19)
20 - Florida St (25)
21 - North Carolina (UR)
22 - Michigan St (23)
23 - South Florida (15)
24 - California (UR)
25 - Pittsburgh (18)

Previous week's rank in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Boston College, Connecticut, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Oregon
Added: 21 North Carolina, 24 California
Dropped: 22 Boston College, 24 Northwestern

2008 Weekly Picks

Tuesday, October 21

Ohio at Temple


Thursday, October 23

Auburn at West Virginia
New Mexico at Air Force


Friday, October 24

Boise St at San Jose St


Saturday, October 25

Cincinnati at Connecticut
Northwestern at Indiana
Boston College at North Carolina
Illinois at Wisconsin
Eastern Michigan at Ball St
Texas Tech at Kansas
Wake Forest at Miami
Minnesota at Purdue
Central Michigan at Toledo
Kentucky at Florida

Baylor at Nebraska
Oklahoma at Kansas St
Louisiana Tech at Army
UNLV at BYU
Duke at Vanderbilt
Fresno St at Utah St
Rice at Tulane
UCLA at California
Virginia Tech at Florida St
Virginia at Georgia Tech

South Florida at Louisville
Georgia at LSU
NC State at Maryland
Michigan St at Michigan
Kent St at Miami (OH)
Rutgers at Pittsburgh
Oklahoma St at Texas
SMU at Navy
Bowling Green at Northern Illinois
New Mexico St at Idaho

Wyoming at TCU
Colorado at Missouri
Mississippi at Arkansas
Texas A&M at Iowa St
Troy at North Texas
MTSU at Mississippi St
FAU at Louisiana Monroe
Alabama at Tennessee
Penn St at Ohio St
Southern Miss at Memphis

Notre Dame at Washington
Colorado St at San Diego St
Oregon at Arizona St
USC at Arizona
Nevada at Hawaii