The Favorite (East): UCF is narrowly my favorite to win the East division. The defense should be strong as usual, but the offense is still a concern. Despite going 8-5 last season and outscoring opponents by 3.5 points per game, they were still outgained by their opponents. The only time UCF has had a good offense under George O'Leary is when Kevin Smith was breaking rushing records.
The Favorite (West): Houston keeps lighting up the scoreboard and winning games, but the defense is still an issue. Houston gained a lot of recognition by beating two Big XII teams and an SEC team last year. This year they get UCLA, Mississippi State and Texas Tech out of conference. Houston should win at least ten games again this season behind another great season by quarterback Case Keenum.
The Challenger (East): Southern Miss has gone 7-6 with a New Orleans Bowl bid in the first two seasons under head coach Larry Fedora. The pressure is going to start mounting on him to get to better bowl game and win a conference championship soon. The Golden Eagles have to replace most of the starters on offense, including most of the line. How well they replace the lost firepower will determine how well their season goes.
The Challenger (West): SMU made a seven win improvement from 2008 to 2009. The offense should only improve next season as they were led by a freshman quarterback who was learning June Jones' run and shoot offense. SMU gets Houston at home and misses UCF and Southern Miss from the East, two teams that Houston has to play. They may be able to take advantage of a favorable schedule to overtake Houston in the West.
The Sleeper: I should know better than to pick UTEP as my sleeper after years of underachieving under Mike Price. But UTEP does have a veteran senior quarterback, the best running back in the conference, and a senior-laden offensive line. If the new defensive coordinator can improve that side of the ball, UTEP could surprise. Couple that with an easy non-conference slate, and UTEP could win a lot of games this season.
The Letdown: East Carolina has won consecutive C-USA championships, but the future still looks bleak right now. They were unceremoniously dumped by their former head coach late in the offseason, forcing them to scramble to find a replacement. They found Ruffin McNeill, a man with one game of head coaching experience who plans to run completely different offensive and defensive sets. Plus ECU goes from being one of the most experienced teams in the country to one of the greenest. There's still a lot of talent on the roster, but little experience.
Conference Player of the Year: Houston QB Case Keenum should continue putting up video game numbers and break Timmy Chang's career passing yard record. I think he'll get an invite to New York but doesn't truly have a shot at the Heisman.
I Wrote What?: For two straight years, I been wrong about UCF and SMU. Two years ago I was too high on both of them. Last year I was too low on both of them. Also, picking Tulane to go bowling in last year's preview looks a little ridiculous now.
Non-conference Games to Watch
* Houston at Texas Tech, Nov 27 - Houston closes out the regular season with a rematch of a great game from last year.
* Kansas at Southern Miss, Sept 17 - With Kansas breaking in a new head coach, Southern Miss has a great chance to win on a Friday night ESPN game.
* NC State at UCF, Sept 11 - UCF has only won two games against AQ teams in their history, one of them was at NC State in 2007. This is the second game in the series.
* Mississippi State at Houston, Oct 9 - Mississippi State should be improved, but this time the game is at Houston.
* SMU at Texas Tech, Sept 5 - SMU could get a big upset in Tuberville's first game as the Texas Tech head coach.
Projected Standings:
East:
UCF | 8-4 | 6-2
Southern Miss | 8-4 | 6-2
Marshall | 6-6 | 4-4
UAB | 6-6 | 4-4
East Carolina | 4-8 | 4-4
Memphis | 1-11 | 1-7
West:
Houston | 10-2 | 7-1
SMU | 8-4 | 6-2
Tulsa | 7-5 | 5-3
Rice | 3-9 | 2-6
UTEP | 5-7 | 2-6
Tulane | 2-10 | 1-7
No comments:
Post a Comment