BCS Bowl Possibilities

A want to write a quick post detailing what I think will happen in regards to the participants of the five BCS bowls. I'm particularly interested this year, because Boise State has a great opportunity to become the first non-AQ to be selected from the at-large pool. Onto the discussion:

Here's what I know for sure. The winner of the SEC championship game will be in the title game, and the loser will be in the Sugar Bowl. The winner of the ACC championship game will be in the Orange Bowl. The loser won't be in a BCS bowl. Ohio State will be in Rose Bowl. The winner of the Civil War (Oregon vs Oregon State) will also be in the Rose Bowl. TCU will be in one of the BCS bowls. Those six teams are in.

The most likely scenario is that Texas wins the Big 12 championship game, Cincinnati beats Pitt, and Boise State beats New Mexico State. In this case, Texas goes to the title game and Cincinnati goes to a BCS bowl. Now two spots are open. The Big Ten will get one, and it should go to Iowa over Penn State. The most likely options for the last spot will be Georgia Tech if they lose Ssturday, Virginia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Oklahoma State, Oregon if they lose Saturday, and Boise State. Boise State would be 13-0 with a win over Oregon. Every other team in that list would have three losses. If a BCS bowl chose a 3-loss team over Boise State, chaos would ensue. In 2007, the Rose Bowl took a undeserving Illinois team, but that was a slightly different situation because the Rose Bowl wanted to keep the Big 10-Pac 10 tradition. That would not be the case this season. I have to think Boise State would be chosen, regardless that they play in the WAC and the non-conference slate ended up having only one big game.

A second scenario would be Texas and Boise State winning, but Cincinnati losing to Pitt. Pitt would earn the auto-bid and Cincinnati would go to the at-large pool. Cincinnati and Iowa would probably both get bids over Boise State in this situation.

If Cincinnati and Boise State win, but Texas loses, then it ends up being essentially the same situation. Texas and Iowa get the at-large bids and Boise State gets the shaft. Then the main topic will be who plays in the title game. While TCU is ranked higher right now, I think Cincinnati would jump to #2. With no one-loss teams outside of SEC loser and Texas, Cincinnati would be the only option from a BCS conference.

If Texas and Cincinnati lose, then it gets interesting for a different reason. Texas obviously gets an at-large, but Iowa and Cincinnati would have to fight it out for the last spot. Cincinnati would have the better resume and the better non-conference win (at Oregon State vs Arizona at home.) The problem is that the Big East lacks a certain amount of prestige, and Iowa has a bigger fanbase for ticket sales and TV ratings. TCU would be next in line to play in the title game, but I have a hard time believing that will happen. I doubt you'll see a SEC rematch, so Texas may be able to back its way into the title game without winning the Big 12. If you like chaos, root for this situation.


My latest prediction of the BCS Bowls:

BCS National Championship Game: Florida vs Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Cincinnati vs TCU
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Iowa

2009 Week 14 Top 25

It's conference championship weekend, so there are several top matchups this weekend. The Big 12 and the SEC championship games pit two ranked teams against each other. Cincinnati and Pitt are playing de facto championship game, with the winner taking the conference and a BCS bowl invite. Oregon and Oregon State have a similar situation, where the winner will go to the Rose Bowl. The ACC and even the MAC are on the verge of having ranked teams square off, with Clemson and Ohio just a little outside of my Top 25 rankings.


1 - Florida (1)
2 - Alabama (2)
3 - Texas (3)
4 - Cincinnati (4)
5 - TCU (5)
6 - Boise St (6)
7 - Oregon (9)
8 - Ohio St (10)
9 - Georgia Tech (7)
10 - Pitt (8)
11 - Iowa (12)
12 - Virginia Tech (13)
13 - Penn St (14)
14 - LSU (16)
15 - Houston (17)
16 - Nebraska (19)
17 - BYU (24)
18 - Oklahoma St (12)
19 - Miami (20)
20 - USC (21)
21 - West Virginia (UR)
22 - Utah (15)
23 - Wisconsin (23)
24 - Oregon St (UR)
25 - Central Michigan (UR)


Others Receiving Votes: Cal, Clemson, Ohio, Stanford, Troy
Added: West Virginia, Oregon St, Central Michigan
Dropped: Clemson, Mississippi, Cal

11/29 Coaching Update

Coaching Carousel has been updated with the Akron, Louisville, and Marshall openings. I'm expecting more annoucements to be made Monday or Tuesday. Specifically, I'm expecting to hear about a change being made at Notre Dame, Virginia and Maryland. Colorado and UTEP have come out and said their coaches will be retained. I wouldn't be surprised if Mike Price decides to retire though. It has been reported that Memphis has hired LSU assistant head coach and RB coach Larry Porter, although that's not been made official yet.

While I was typing this, ESPN reported that Al Groh is out at Virginia. The carousel will be updated. Also, Bobby Bowden wants to coach another season at FSU, but his fate has not been decided. Expect an announcement one way or the other in the next day or two.

2009 Week 13 Picks

Week 1: 63-15 (80.8%)
Week 2: 51-11 (82.3%)
Week 3: 47-17 (73.4%)
Week 4: 45-16 (73.8%)
Week 5: 37-15 (71.2%)
Week 6: 45-10 (81.8%)
Week 7: 44-11 (80%)
Week 8: 43-12 (78.2%)
Week 9: 39-16 (70.9%)
Week 10: 40-15 (72.7%)
Week 11: 48-12 (80%)
Week 12: 42-11 (79.2%)
Season: 544-161 (77.2%)


Tuesday, November 24
Ball St at Western Michigan


Thursday, November 26
Texas at Texas A&M


Friday, November 27
Rutgers at Louisville
Temple at Ohio
Illinois at Cincinnati
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan
Wyoming at Colorado St
Toledo at Bowling Green
Eastern Michigan at Akron
Buffalo at Kent St
Alabama at Auburn
Nebraska at Colorado

Memphis at Tulsa
Pitt at West Virginia
Nevada at Boise St


Saturday, November 28
Syracuse at Connecticut
Wake Forest at Duke
North Carolina at NC State
Clemson at South Carolina
Mississippi at Mississippi St
Oklahoma St at Oklahoma
Southern Miss at East Carolina
New Mexico at TCU
UCF at UAB
North Texas at Arkansas St

Tulane at SMU
Marshall at UTEP
Arizona at Arizona St
Florida St at Florida
Miami at USF
Boston College at Maryland
Virginia Tech at Virginia
Missouri vs Kansas at Kansas City
Western Kentucky at FAU
MTSU at Louisiana-Monroe

Utah St at Idaho
Utah at BYU
Texas Tech vs Baylor at Arlington
Washington St at Washington
Tennessee at Kentucky
Arkansas at LSU
Troy at Louisiana-Lafayette
New Mexico St at San Jose St
Notre Dame at Stanford
Georgia at Georgia Tech

Rice at Houston
San Diego St at UNLV
UCLA at USC
Navy at Hawaii

2009 Week 13 Top 25

The BYU-Utah Holy War is the only matchup this weekend against ranked teams. The Pitt-West Virginia game almost made it to that status. Regardless, this is rivalry weekend and there should be several good games. It's worth noting that Temple has won nine straight games and has entered my receiving votes category. Another win this weekend would put them in the MAC Championship game.

1 - Florida (1)
2 - Alabama (2)
3 - Texas (3)
4 - Cincinnati (4)
5 - TCU (5)
6 - Boise St (6)
7 - Georgia Tech (7)
8 - Pitt (8)
9 - Oregon (10)
10 - Ohio St (11)
11 - Iowa (12)
12 - Oklahoma St (14)
13 - Virginia Tech (15)
14 - Penn St (13)
15 - Utah (17)
16 - LSU (9)
17 - Houston (18)
18 - Clemson (19)
19 - Nebraska (22)
20 - Miami (20)
21 - USC (12)
22 - Mississippi (UR)
23 - Wisconsin (16)
24 - BYU (UR)
25 - Cal (UR)


Others Receiving Votes: Central Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon St, Temple, West Virginia
Added: Mississippi, BYU, Cal
Dropped: Rutgers, Stanford, Oregon St

2009 Week 12 Picks

Week 1: 63-15 (80.8%)
Week 2: 51-11 (82.3%)
Week 3: 47-17 (73.4%)
Week 4: 45-16 (73.8%)
Week 5: 37-15 (71.2%)
Week 6: 45-10 (81.8%)
Week 7: 44-11 (80%)
Week 8: 43-12 (78.2%)
Week 9: 39-16 (70.9%)
Week 10: 40-15 (72.7%)
Week 11: 48-12 (80%)
Season: 502-150 (77%)


Wednesday, November 18
Buffalo at Miami (OH)
Central Michigan at Ball St


Thursday, November 19
Colorado at Oklahoma St


Friday, November 20
Akron at Bowling Green
Eastern Michigan at Toledo
Boise St at Utah St


Saturday, November 21
Maryland at Florida St
Louisville at USF
North Carolina at Boston College
Ohio St at Michigan
Minnesota at Iowa
Duke at Miami
Mississippi St at Arkansas
Chattanooga at Alabama
FIU at Florida
Oklahoma at Texas Tech

Kent St at Temple
Memphis at Houston
Iowa St at Missouri
Northern Illinois at Ohio
Tulane at UCF
TCU at Wyoming
Connecticut at Notre Dame
Wisconsin at Northwestern
Purdue at Indiana
Penn St at Michigan St

LSU at Mississippi
UAB at East Carolina
Rutgers at Syracuse
Virginia at Clemson
UTEP at Rice
Baylor at Texas A&M
Air Force at BYU
NC State at Virginia Tech
Arizona St at UCLA
Army at North Texas

San Diego St at Utah
FAU at Troy
SMU at Marshall
Arkansas St at MTSU
Oregon St at Washington St
Louisiana Tech at Fresno St
Colorado St at New Mexico
Louisiana Monroe at Louisiana Lafayette
Vanderbilt at Tennessee
Tulsa at Southern Miss

Cal at Stanford
Kentucky at Georgia
Kansas St at Nebraska
Oregon at Arizona
Hawaii at San Jose St
Kansas at Texas
Nevada at New Mexico St

Coaching Update

The Coaching Carousel has been updated with the upcoming UNLV and San Jose State openings.

Several other jobs will open up in the next few weeks, so I'll make some predictions about what could happen in each conference.

ACC: Florida State needs to beat Maryland at home this weekend or beat Florida in the finale to keep its bowl streak alive. I think Bobby Bowden wants to stick around one more year, but missing out on a bowl may be what pushes him out. Maryland and Virginia will almost definitely make a change. Maryland has tabbed OC James Franklin as the head coach in waiting, but it's also possible to see them gut the entire staff regardless if they want a blank slate.

Big 12: Eight teams are bowl eligible and three others could become eligible. The only team that definitely isn't going to the postseason is the only job that might come open. Colorado is 4-7, and more importantly doesn't seem to be improving under Dan Hawkins. Mike Sherman at Texas A&M is a longshot, but they only need to beat Baylor this weekend to get to six wins. The Aggies have been very erratic, but they have improved in Sherman's second season. It's possible that neither program will make a move for financial reasons.

Big East: Louisville is probably coming open this offseason. Steve Kragthorpe hasn't had anywhere near the success that Bobby Petrino had previously, hovering just under a .500 record. The move might not be based entirely on the on-field results. Louisville is expanding its stadium to hold 60,000 in 2010, including many luxury boxes and premium seats. The administration may want to make a splashy hire to get the fanbase excited and help sell the premium tickets. No other coach in the conference will get fired, but Brian Kelly at Cincinnati will be mentioned for every elite job that comes available.

Big Ten: Michigan is an interesting situation. After making 33 straight bowl games, Michigan is a very likely loss to Ohio State away from missing the postseason for two straight seasons. When the only conference win is against Indiana, the fanbase is going to be restless. Couple the lack of success with an ongoing NCAA investigation, and the Rich Rodriguez era could meet an abrupt end. I would say Ron Zook might be on the hot seat at Illinois, but the AD has said the Zook's job is safe for next season.

C-USA: Tommy West at Memphis is already out. Mark Snyder might be back on the host seat after back-to-back conference losses to UCF and Southern Miss. At one point, Marshall was leading to win the East division and was on the way to win 7-8 regular season games. Now they are back at .500 and a move might be made even if they go bowling. George O'Leary looked like a possibility earlier in the season, but knocking off #15 Houston should go a long way. UCF is looking at a 7-8 win season and probably an invite to the nearby St. Petersburg bowl. Mike Price at UTEP could be gone. The administration and fanbase are probably sick of the early and midseason potential prior to the annual November collapse. A loss to Rice this weekend may seal his fate.

Independents: Army and Navy are safe, so that just leaves Notre Dame. The Irish's four losses have come by a combined 18 points, but most of the wins have been close too. Most of Weis's critics wouldn't be quite so loud if he didn't lose home games to Syracuse and Navy.

MAC: Stan Parrish at Ball State might not make it to his second season, after taking a 12-2 team to a 1-9 record with likely losses in the final two games. The good: they've been competitive, losing seven games by 10 or fewer points. The bad: some of those close losses were to North Texas at home, FCS member New Hampshire, and Army. The only other possible firing would be J.D. Brookhart at Akron, who is mired in a 2-8 season and four years removed from their last bowl game.

Mountain West: Mike Sanford at UNLV is gone. Mike Lockley could be gone after just one season due to a combination of blowout losses and an embarassing scandal. They haven't won a game all season. The loss to rival New Mexico State was the first since 2002. Oddly enough, they played BYU very close last week, so maybe the team is improving and Locksley will be given a second chance.

Pac-10: Paul Wulff at Washington State could be gone after two seasons. They've barely improved in year two of his system. The offense is averaging fewer than 14 points per game, and the defense is giving up 39 ppg. I don't know how patient the adminstration can be with Wulff.

SEC: Every job should be safe. Rich Brooks at Kentucky is almost 70 years old and may be on retirement watch. Also, every season it seems that there are rumors that Steve Spurrier is going to retire, although he always denies them.

Sun Belt: David Elson at Western Kentucky is already gone. Steve Roberts at Arkansas State has had a disappointing season with several close losses, and it is taking a long time for Todd Dodge at North Texas to get his system working. Regardless, both coaches should be safe this offseason.

WAC: Dick Tomey at San Jose State is retiring at the end of the season. No other job should become avaiable.