2010 Preseason Top 25

It's always difficult to create a Preseason Top 25 poll, because there are so many unanswered questions. The top ten teams could be ranked in any order and I wouldn't argue. I'd be extremely surprised if the national title game participants didn't come from the top ten. Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt as the reigning champions.

1 - Alabama (1)
2 - Ohio St (7)
3 - Boise St (4)
4 - Oregon (10)
5 - TCU (6)
6 - Virginia Tech (9)
7 - Oklahoma (UR)
8 - Texas (2)
9 - Florida (3)
10 - Nebraska (15)
11 - Iowa (8)
12 - Miami (19)
13 - Utah (18)
14 - Pitt (13)
15 - Penn St (11)
16 - Arkansas (UR)
17 - LSU (16)
18 - Wisconsin (17)
19 - North Carolina (UR)
20 - Florida St (UR)
21 - Georgia Tech (12)
22 - West Virginia (21)
23 - Houston (24)
24 - Auburn (UR)
25 - Clemson (UR)

Final 2009 ranking in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Arizona, Connecticut, Missouri, South Carolina, Stanford

Newcomers (Unranked at the end of last year): Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, Oklahoma

Noticeably Absent (Ranked at the end of last year): BYU, Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, USC

2010 Preseason Bowl Predictions

BCS Bowl Games:

BCS National Championship Game: Oklahoma vs Ohio St
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs Boise St
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Florida
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs TCU
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Pitt


The Others:

New Mexico Bowl: San Diego St vs Fresno St
UDrove Humanitarian Bowl: Ohio vs Nevada
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: MTSU vs Tulsa
Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl: Southern Miss vs Rutgers
Maaco Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs Stanford

SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs Navy
Hawaii Bowl: Utah St vs UCF
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Temple vs UCLA
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl: Boston College vs Air Force
Insight Bowl: Missouri vs Wisconsin

Champs Sports Bowl: Florida St vs Notre Dame
EagleBank Bowl: Marshall vs Wake Forest
Texas Bowl: Oklahoma St vs Michigan St
Alamo Bowl: Arizona vs Texas A&M
Bell Helicopters Armed Forces Bowl: Army vs SMU

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas St vs Connecticut
Franklin Music City Bowl: Georgia Tech vs Kentucky
Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl: Oregon St vs Texas Tech
Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia vs North Carolina
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Clemson vs Washington

Liberty Bowl: Houston vs Mississippi
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Miami vs South Carolina
Dallas Football Classic: Northwestern vs Western Michigan
Outback Bowl: Penn St vs Arkansas
Capital One Bowl: Auburn vs Iowa

Konica Minolta Gator Bowl: Michigan vs Georgia
GMAC Bowl: Northern Illinois vs Troy
AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic: LSU vs Nebraska
Birmingham Bowl Cincinnati vs Mississippi St
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Cal at Idaho


Conference Championship Games

ACC: Florida St vs Virginia Tech
Big 12: Oklahoma vs Nebraska
C-USA: UCF vs Houston
MAC: Temple vs Northern Illinois
SEC: Florida vs Alabama

2010 ACC Preview

The Favorite (Atlantic): Jimbo Fisher takes over at Florida State for long time head coach Bobby Bowden. Although he's replacing a legend, his teams might immediately be better. The offense should be strong again led by a healthy QB Christian Ponder. The defense could be better with an improvement at the defensive coordinator position. The schedule is brutal with non-conference games against Oklahoma, BYU and Florida and Coastal games against Miami and North Carolina.

The Favorite (Coastal): Virginia Tech looks like the class of the ACC and has the potential of a huge season. The offense should be explosive with two great running backs splitting carries and dual-threat Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. There are some big losses on defense, but Frank Beamer's team always seem to be able to reload on defense. Virginia Tech participates in arguably the best non-conference game this season when they play Boise State in FedEx Field on Labor Day. The Hokies play in the more loaded Coastal division, but they do miss Florida State and Clemson from the Atlantic division.

The Challenger (Atlantic): Clemson should be close to Florida State at the top of the Atlantic standings. I'm concerned about how effective the offense will be this season with the loss of home run hitters C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford. Clemson has to travel to Florida State and they draw three of the contenders from the Coastal division, which helps put Florida State a little ahead of Clemson. The Tigers also have good non-conference games against Auburn and South Carolina.

The Challenger (Coastal): North Carolina was primed for a breakout season under Butch Davis, but then the NCAA starting checking into the Tar Heels. It's unknown how many of the players will be suspended and for how long. Still this is a very talented team and should be one of four contenders in a deep Coastal division. North Carolina opens the season against LSU in the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game in Atlanta. They draw Florida State and Clemson from the Atlantic, which makes their schedule tougher than Virginia Tech's slate.

The Sleeper: Since I think half of the conference will contend for the ACC title, it's hard to pick a sleeper. I'm going to go with Boston College, who was better last year than I expected. They have a favorable schedule that could lead to an Atlantic title. They host both contenders Florida State and Clemson, and they get an easier draw from the Coastal. They get Virginia Tech at home after a bye, and they get the two non-contenders Duke and Virginia.

The Letdown: Tom O'Brien had great success at Boston College, but he is toiling in mediocrity at NC State. Last year's 5-7 record might not look too bad on the surface, but look deeper. First they played two FCS teams and they only beat 2-10 Maryland by a touchdown. The wins versus North Carolina and Pitt were good but close. Those good wins are completely negated by a 21-point loss to Duke at home. I don't see anything to think they are going to improve that much this season, and O'Brien will be on the hot seat by the end of the season.

Conference Players of the Year: There are a lot of individual players I like in the ACC: Jacory Harris, Josh Nesbitt, Christian Ponder, Russell Wilson, and the three-headed monster in Virginia Tech's backfield. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Christian Ponder greatly improves his senior year and gets my vote.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I called NC State the Sleeper and Boston College the Letdown. I should have switched them around.

Non-Conference Games to Watch:
* Boise State vs Virginia Tech at Landover, MD, Sept 6 - Not that it will happen, but the winner of this game should be ranked #1 in the Week 2 Polls.
* LSU vs North Carolina at Atlanta, Sept 4 - How many players will North Carolina be forced to sit for this game?
* Miami at Ohio State, Sept 11 - Texas and USC have beaten the Buckeyes at the Horseshoe recently. We'll see if Miami can do the same.
* Florida State at Oklahoma, Sept 11 - If Florida State can win here, it would be the beginning of a huge season.
* Clemson at Auburn, Sept 18 - Although these two schools have played each other 46 times, they haven't met in the regular season since 1971.


Projected Standings:
Atlantic:

Florida St | 8-4 | 6-2







Clemson | 8-4 | 5-3







Boston College | 8-4 | 4-4







Wake Forest | 6-6 | 3-5







NC State | 5-7 | 3-5







Maryland | 4-8 | 2-6








Coastal:

Virginia Tech | 11-1 | 7-1







Miami | 8-4 | 6-2







North Carolina | 8-4 | 5-3







Georgia Tech | 8-4 | 5-3







Duke | 3-9 | 1-7







Virginia | 4-8 | 1-7

2010 Big 12 Preview

The Favorite (North): Nebraska is the number one team in the preseason Rogers Poll, and they could be due for a big season in their last one as a member of the Big 12 conference. Last year Nebraska lost three games by a total of four points. Only one team scored more than 20 points against them. Seven teams were held to single digit points. The year culminated in an absolute dismantling of a good Arizona team 33-0 in the Holiday Bowl. This season they will have to compete without Ndamukong Suh, Heisman finalist and #2 overall draft pick. The schedule is set up for a potential undefeated season. They host Texas and miss Oklahoma from the South. The most difficult road games are probably at Washington and Texas A&M. Nebraska is definitely a national title contender this season.

The Favorite (South): As is usually the case, Oklahoma and Texas will be fighting for the top spot in the Big 12 South. I give the slight edge to Oklahoma because of more experience at the quarterback position and missing Nebraska in the regular season. OU and Nebraska will likely meet in the Big 12 title game though. Oklahoma was down last season due mainly to injuries but still won eight games. Like Nebraska, they lost two games by a single point. They also lost two other close games to the conference championship game participants. Although the schedule is difficult, I expect Oklahoma to be back in a big way and make it to the BCS National Championship Game.

The Challenger (North): Missouri is the second best team in the North, but I don't know if they can legitimately challenge Nebraska. The Huskers will likely sweep their divisional foes. Mizzou's quarterback Blaine Gabbert was very effective last season and had really good stats. His stats might have been even better if he didn't injure his ankle in the middle of the season. There is some concern though with the loss of his top two receivers, who accounted for almost 2500 yards and 20 touchdowns. WR Danario Alexander led the country with 1781 receiving yards. I'm also concerned that Missouri lost all three games last year to the Big 12 South, even Baylor.

The Challenger (South): Texas probably deserves co-favorite status with Oklahoma. I could definitely imagine them back in both the Big 12 and National Championship games again this season. QB Garrett Gilbert showed a lot of promise in last year's national title game, and that was against a great Alabama defense. Texas is helped by only having three conference road games and a relatively light non-conference schedule. UCLA comes to town, but I don't think they will be good enough to beat the Longhorns in Austin. There may be some growing pains associated with trying to transition back to a more run-oriented offense. Regardless, I would be shocked if Texas won fewer than ten games this season.

The Sleeper: Texas A&M could greatly improve in Mike Sherman's third season. The problem so far has obviously been the defense. In 25 games, Sherman's defenses have given up 60 points three times and 40 points 12 times. The defense improved slightly in his second season, but the offense made a drastic jump forward. The offense should be even better this season, as they are led by senior QB Jerrod Johnson who accounted for over 4000 yards of offense and 38 total touchdowns. Expect the Aggies to be involved in several shootouts this season. The schedule is not going to be an easy road. Along with annual games against Texas and Oklahoma, they also draw Nebraska and Missouri from the North, and they have to play Arkansas out of conference. Three of those games are at home and one is in Cowboys Stadium, so the Aggies could surprise.

The Letdown: Iowa State surprised my last season by going 7-6 with an Insight Bowl win in Paul Rhoads's first year. Despite the winning record, Iowa State was outscored by opponents by 17 points on the year and outgained by over 50 yards per game. The non-conference gets tougher this season with Utah and Northern Illinois in addition to the yearly rivalry game with Iowa. The draw from the South is harder as Texas and Oklahoma rotate onto the schedule. Iowa State greatly improved their defense last year, but the offense scored less than 21 points per game. That's a lot going against them to make it back to the postseason.

Conference Players of the Year: In a league of really good quarterbacks, Texas A&M QB Jerrod Johnson will put up the best stats.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I had Kansas and Colorado bowling while Iowa State and Texas A&M staying home. On the other side, I did write this: "Sam Bradford (QB Oklahoma) on offense and Ndamukong Suh (DT Nebraska) on defense. These two could be the first two drafted in the 2010 NFL Draft."

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Florida State at Oklahoma, Sept 11 - A really good early season test for Landry Jones and the rest of the Sooners.
* Arkansas vs Texas A&M at Arlington, Oct 9 - I assume A&M is improved and this should be a much better game this time around.
* Nebraska at Washington, Sept 18 - A trip to the west coast could be a potential stumbling block for Nebraska.
* Houston at Texas Tech, Nov 27 - Will Tuberville have Texas Tech playing well enough by the end of the season to avenge last season's loss to Houston?
* Georgia at Colorado, Oct 2 - Colorado could get the home upset with a bye week to prepare ahead of time.


Projected Standings:
North:

Nebraska | 10-2 | 6-2







Missouri | 9-3 | 5-3







Kansas St | 6-6 | 3-5







Colorado | 5-7 | 3-5







Iowa St | 4-8 | 2-6







Kansas | 4-8 | 2-6








South:

Oklahoma | 12-0 | 8-0







Texas | 11-1 | 7-1







Texas A&M | 8-4 | 5-3







Texas Tech | 6-6 | 3-5







Oklahoma St | 6-6 | 2-6







Baylor | 5-7 | 2-6

2010 Big East Preview

The Favorite: Pitt should make it back to a BCS bowl game for the first time since 2004. Their three losses last year were by a combined 11 points, and they had the best true freshman running back in the country in Dion Lewis. Pitt has to replace a veteran quarterback and most of the offensive line, plus more than half of the defensive starters. The non-conference schedule is harder than most with games against Utah, Miami and Notre Dame. The Panthers have a lot going against them, but the other challengers in the Big East have similar flaws.

The Challenger: West Virginia has gone 9-4 in both seasons under head coach Bill Stewart. That's a good record, but he needs to prove that he can win a conference championships considering all the talent on the team. The offense has been his biggest issue. It dropped 15 points per game in his first season, and barely improved in his second. And that was with Pat White in his senior season an Noel Devine, one of the top rated running backs out of high school. For the second straight year, they are replacing the quarterback and hoping Devine can shoulder the offensive load. A trip to Pitt late in the season is likely to determine the conference.

The Sleeper: Connecticut is one of those teams that never gets much national publicity despite their consistent success. Connecticut is one of only three teams that had multiple 1000-yard rushers (Georgia Tech, Nevada). While they did lose five games last year, none were by more than four points. This year Connecticut hosts my top two contenders Pitt and West Virginia, both on short weeks. With no clear favorite in the conference, this looks like a great opportunity for the Huskies.

The Letdown: Cincinnati won the past two Big East championships and had an undefeated regular season last year. The problem is that head coach Brian Kelly took the Notre Dame job, and they weren't exactly blowing the other contenders out of the water. They beat Connecticut, West Virginia and Pitt by a combined six points. New head coach Butch Jones has been in a very similar situation before, he took over Central Michigan after Brian Kelly took the Cincinnati job. He kept CMU near the top of the MAC, but I think the competition to stay at the top will be tougher in the Big East. Also, Cincinnati has tough non-conference games against Fresno State, NC State and Oklahoma.

Conference Player of the Year: Pitt RB Dion Lewis should have the best stats in the conference.

I Wrote What?: I thought that Cincinnati had peaked in 2008 and would be down last year. I even listed them as my Letdown team in last year's preview. Instead they went 12-0, won the Big East, and went to the Sugar Bowl.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* West Virginia at LSU, Sept 25 - Fun fact: Under Bill Stewart, West Virginia has won every non-conference home game (7-0) and lost every road game (0-3).
* Miami at Pitt, Sept 23 - An important game for two teams trying to get back to the top.
* Pitt at Utah, Sept 2 - A rematch of the 2004 Fiesta Bowl. I doubt Pitt gets blown out again.
* Connecticut at Michigan, Sept 4 - Winning games like this one will help make people realize that Connecticut is more than just a basketball school.
* Kentucky at Louisville, Sept 4 - Two first year head coaches get to go up against each other in an in-state rivalry game.


Projected Standings:

Pittsburgh | 9-3 | 6-1







West Virginia | 9-3 | 5-2







Connecticut | 9-3 | 4-3







Cincinnati | 7-5 | 4-3







Rutgers | 7-5 | 3-4







USF | 6-6 | 3-4







Syracuse | 5-7 | 2-5







Louisville | 4-8 | 1-6

2010 Big Ten Preview

The Favorite: Ohio State has won or shared the Big Ten title for the past five years. This year should be no different. It's very possible that Jim Tressel could have his team playing for a national title for the fourth time in his tenure. Terrelle Pryor continues to grow into a better quarterback, and he is my favorite to win the Heisman this year. The schedule isn't too bad, but it might be tough to beat Wisconsin and Iowa on the road. At home they host Miami, Penn State, and Michigan.

The Challenger: Penn State has question mark at quarterback and road games to Iowa and Ohio State, so Iowa is my challenger. Iowa could make a run at the Rose Bowl or more since they get Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State at home. The defense was stout as usual last year, but the offense struggled, barely scoring 23 points per game. Both losses from last year were close, but four of the wins were by a field goal or less. In fact, only two of their eleven wins were by more than 12 points. Iowa will have to become a more dominant team if they are going to win conference and national championships.

The Sleeper: Wisconsin flew under the radar last year despite winning ten games. There hasn't been much preseason chatter either, but this is a very solid team capable of winning the Big Ten. The offense averaged more than 200 yards through the air and on the ground last year. RB John Clay ran for over 1500 yards and scored 18 touchdowns. This season they host Ohio State and miss Penn State from the schedule. They do have to play at Iowa, but the non-conference is pretty light. They play Ohio State and Iowa in consecutive weeks, and those two games will be huge in deciding the Big Ten champion.

The Letdown: Minnesota was outscored by almost three points per game and outgained by over 60 yards per game last year. This year they have to replace nine starters on defense, everyone but the safeties. On offense, the quarterback returns, but he threw more interceptions than touchdowns and only completed 52% of his passes. The schedule does them no favors either. They open at MTSU, a very dangerous team especially for an inexperienced defense. They host USC, which might get ugly. Head coach Tim Brewster is only 14-24 in three seasons and will start feeling the heat with another losing season.

Conference Players of the Year: If he wins the Heisman, then Terrelle Pryor will win this one too.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I thought Illinois would be back near the top, but I was six games wrong. I was way too low on Wisconsin, calling them to only go 6-6.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Miami at Ohio State, Sept 11 - The last time these two programs met, the 2002 National Championship was on the line.
* Penn State at Alabama, Sept 11 - Penn State surprised me last year when they beat LSU in the Capital One Bowl. Can they surprise again versus another SEC team?
* Iowa at Arizona, Sept 18 - An underrated matchup between two teams gunning for BCS bowls.
* Notre Dame at Michigan State, Sept 18 - The Spartans can make an early season statement here.
* Connecticut at Michigan, Sept 4 - Michigan didn't beat a team that went bowling last year, and Connecticut wants to prove they can win in the Big House.


Projected Standings:

Ohio St | 11-1 | 7-1







Iowa | 10-2 | 6-2







Penn St | 9-3 | 6-2







Wisconsin | 9-3 | 5-3







Michigan | 7-5 | 5-3







Michigan St | 8-4 | 4-4







Northwestern | 8-4 | 4-4







Minnesota | 5-7 | 3-5







Illinois | 4-8 | 2-6







Purdue | 5-7 | 2-6







Indiana | 4-8 | 0-8

2010 C-USA Preview

The Favorite (East): UCF is narrowly my favorite to win the East division. The defense should be strong as usual, but the offense is still a concern. Despite going 8-5 last season and outscoring opponents by 3.5 points per game, they were still outgained by their opponents. The only time UCF has had a good offense under George O'Leary is when Kevin Smith was breaking rushing records.

The Favorite (West): Houston keeps lighting up the scoreboard and winning games, but the defense is still an issue. Houston gained a lot of recognition by beating two Big XII teams and an SEC team last year. This year they get UCLA, Mississippi State and Texas Tech out of conference. Houston should win at least ten games again this season behind another great season by quarterback Case Keenum.

The Challenger (East): Southern Miss has gone 7-6 with a New Orleans Bowl bid in the first two seasons under head coach Larry Fedora. The pressure is going to start mounting on him to get to better bowl game and win a conference championship soon. The Golden Eagles have to replace most of the starters on offense, including most of the line. How well they replace the lost firepower will determine how well their season goes.

The Challenger (West): SMU made a seven win improvement from 2008 to 2009. The offense should only improve next season as they were led by a freshman quarterback who was learning June Jones' run and shoot offense. SMU gets Houston at home and misses UCF and Southern Miss from the East, two teams that Houston has to play. They may be able to take advantage of a favorable schedule to overtake Houston in the West.

The Sleeper: I should know better than to pick UTEP as my sleeper after years of underachieving under Mike Price. But UTEP does have a veteran senior quarterback, the best running back in the conference, and a senior-laden offensive line. If the new defensive coordinator can improve that side of the ball, UTEP could surprise. Couple that with an easy non-conference slate, and UTEP could win a lot of games this season.

The Letdown: East Carolina has won consecutive C-USA championships, but the future still looks bleak right now. They were unceremoniously dumped by their former head coach late in the offseason, forcing them to scramble to find a replacement. They found Ruffin McNeill, a man with one game of head coaching experience who plans to run completely different offensive and defensive sets. Plus ECU goes from being one of the most experienced teams in the country to one of the greenest. There's still a lot of talent on the roster, but little experience.

Conference Player of the Year: Houston QB Case Keenum should continue putting up video game numbers and break Timmy Chang's career passing yard record. I think he'll get an invite to New York but doesn't truly have a shot at the Heisman.

I Wrote What?: For two straight years, I been wrong about UCF and SMU. Two years ago I was too high on both of them. Last year I was too low on both of them. Also, picking Tulane to go bowling in last year's preview looks a little ridiculous now.

Non-conference Games to Watch
* Houston at Texas Tech, Nov 27 - Houston closes out the regular season with a rematch of a great game from last year.
* Kansas at Southern Miss, Sept 17 - With Kansas breaking in a new head coach, Southern Miss has a great chance to win on a Friday night ESPN game.
* NC State at UCF, Sept 11 - UCF has only won two games against AQ teams in their history, one of them was at NC State in 2007. This is the second game in the series.
* Mississippi State at Houston, Oct 9 - Mississippi State should be improved, but this time the game is at Houston.
* SMU at Texas Tech, Sept 5 - SMU could get a big upset in Tuberville's first game as the Texas Tech head coach.


Projected Standings:
East:

UCF | 8-4 | 6-2







Southern Miss | 8-4 | 6-2







Marshall | 6-6 | 4-4







UAB | 6-6 | 4-4







East Carolina | 4-8 | 4-4







Memphis | 1-11 | 1-7








West:

Houston | 10-2 | 7-1







SMU | 8-4 | 6-2







Tulsa | 7-5 | 5-3







Rice | 3-9 | 2-6







UTEP | 5-7 | 2-6







Tulane | 2-10 | 1-7