Rocket City Report: 2011 ACC Preview

The Favorite (Atlantic): A lot of preseason publications are really high on Florida State this year. In his first season, Jimbo Fisher led the Seminoles to their first 10-win season since 2003. Quarterback Christian Ponder was a first rounder in the NFL draft, but his backup EJ Manuel did get some experience last year. He completed almost 70% of his 93 attempts, but he did throw as many interceptions as touchdowns. Florida State gets a very favorable draw from the Coastal division, playing Duke, Miami and Virginia. Looking around the rest of the division, it would be a major upset if Florida State wasn't playing in the ACC Championship Game.

The Favorite (Coastal): Virginia Tech is my dark horse national championship contender. Looking at the schedule, the most difficult road games are at Georgia Tech and at Virginia. All of the better opponents have to travel to Lane Stadium, which is always a difficult place to play. Well, unless you're James Madison. Virginia Tech will be favored in all of its non-conference games. They also avoid Florida State in the regular season, although they are likely to meet in the ACC championship game. With a little good luck, the Hokies could be playing in the BCS National Championship Game.

The Challenger (Atlantic): Clemson finished 6-7 last year, but six of the losses were by nine or fewer points. The offense took a big step back, averaging seven points per game fewer than in 2009. This season, nine starters on that side of the ball return, all but the quarterback and the left tackle. Clemson is one of the only teams in the Atlantic that I think can challenge Florida State.

The Challenger (Coastal): The Coastal division of the ACC is caked in scandal with North Carolina terminating Butch Davis a month prior to the season and with Miami's impending ineligibility issues. By process of elimination, that leaves Georgia Tech as my second main contender in the Coastal division. The Yellow Jackets had their first losing season under head coach Paul Johnson last year. It's possible that the ACC is understanding how to defend the triple option attack. But I believe Paul Johnson is a good coach, and he can still have good seasons in an AQ conference.

The Sleeper: Virginia made a good hire when they brought in Mike London. They won four games last year, but were close in three others. With 18 starters returning, the Cavaliers can take advantage of a good situation in the division.

The Letdown: As of this posting, 13 players on Miami's team are ineligible. If that ruling is not overturned, then Miami could be in for a long season. Even if the players are ruled eligible, the distraction could negatively affect the team. The Hurricanes had eight players drafted off last year's team and have a new head coach.

Conference Player of the Year: In a conference that lacks preseason star power, I'll call for EJ Manuel to have a big season.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I called NC State my Letdown team, but instead the Wolfpack exploded for nine wins including one in the Champs Sports Bowl. Picking Wake Forest to go 6-6 was pretty bad too.

Non-Conference Games to Watch:
* Oklahoma at Florida State, September 17 - Florida State gets a chance to live up to the preseason hype three weeks into the season.
* Ohio State at Miami, September 17 - This game becomes much less interesting if Miami loses 13 players.
* Auburn at Clemson, September 17 - Clemson pushed Auburn to overtime on the road. The tables could be turned when Auburn makes the return trip to Death Valley.
* Notre Dame vs Maryland at FedEx Field, November 12 - Surprisingly, this is only the second meeting between these two schools.
* Florida State at Florida, November 26 - Florida State hasn't won in the Swamp since 2003.

Projected Standings:
Atlantic: