2007 Coaching Carousel

Arkansas

Former Coach: Houston Nutt
New Coach: Bobby Petrino

Nutt had a successful tenure at Arkansas, leading them to a 75-48 record, eight bowl games (but only two wins), and two SEC West titles. He was offered a contract extension, but division within the fanbase led him to resign. He was hired by Mississippi just a few days later. Petrino left the Atlanta Falcons job after 13 games for the Arkansas job, becoming the latest successful college head coach to fail in the NFL. He has already made quite an impact by bringing in Michigan transfer QB Ryan Mallett (Link). I can imagine Petrino needing a couple of years to start matching Nutt's success, but as long as he sticks around, I think it's a good hire.




Baylor

Former Coach: Guy Morriss
New Coach: Art Briles

Morriss averaged less than four wins in his half-decade at Baylor and was never able to get to bowl eligibility. He did everything he could to improve the offense, but it still finished at the bottom of the Big 12 in points scored. The defense also would have been to worst in the Big 12 in points allowed if it weren't for Nebraska. Briles is a former high school head coach who has only been coaching college for the past five years. He led a downtrodden Houston team to four bowl games in that span, although he never won one. He will definitely improve the offense, but this Baylor team needs help on both sides of the ball. I think this hire is a little questionable, and I think he will only be slightly more successful than Morriss.




Colorado State

Former Coach: Sonny Lubick
New Coach: Steve Fairchild

Lubick is nothing short of a legend at Colorado State, and it's an end of an era now that he's gone. He coached there for 15 seasons, winning six conference titles, going to nine bowl games, and compiling a 108-74 record. Fairchild is an alum of the university and was the OC of the Buffalo Bills most recently. It's difficult to predict how this will turn out, but I do know he has his work cut out for him competing with all of the good programs in the Mountain West.




Duke

Former Coach: Ted Roof
New Coach: David Cutcliffe

Roof was only able to win six games out of the 51 he coached at Duke. Duke has not had a winning season or gone to a bowl game since 1994. The job to turn the program around falls to David Cutcliffe, former Tennessee OC and Mississippi head coach. He inherits a program with more talent and potential than the 1-11 record indicates. It's a challenging job to undertake, but I think Duke hired the best man available for the job.




Georgia Tech

Former Coach: Chan Gailey
New Coach: Paul Johnson

Gailey never had a losing season at Georgia Tech, winning at least seven games and reaching a bowl game in each of his six years there. He won the Coastal Division in 2006 and lost to Wake Forest in the ACC Conference Championship. For all of the positives, it seemed like he underachieved often and he never beat in-state rival Georgia. Georgia Tech made a great hire with Johnson, who had revived Navy's program. I look forward to see what he can accomplish with the talent level at Georgia Tech. I don't even expect much of a transition year in 2008.




Hawaii

Former Coach: June Jones
New Coach: Greg McMackin

Jones accomplished everything that was possible at Hawaii and probably feels like there is nothing else he can prove while being a coach there. He left after the Sugar Bowl to take his high octane offense to SMU on the mainland. Hawaii is one of the most challenging jobs with the extensive travel and extremely limited recruiting budget. It makes sense to promote from within so that the new head coach already understands those difficulties. McMackin looks to be the right guy for the job, although I doubt he will be able to even come close to Jones' success.




Houston

Former Coach: Art Briles
New Coach: Kevin Sumlin

Briles had four winning seasons out of five at Houston, and he parlayed that success into a better paying job at Baylor. I'm sure that Houston didn't want to see him leave. He will be replaced by Kevin Sumlin, who was the co-OC for Oklahoma for the past two seasons. Sumlin will attempt to continue with one of the best offenses in C-USA, one that ranked second it total yards and third in points scored this past season. Anytime you hire a coordinator without any prior head coaching experience, it's going to be a gamble. Still, I see no reason why Sumlin can't sustain and build on Houston's recent success.




Michigan

Former Coach: Lloyd Carr
New Coach: Rich Rodriguez

Lloyd Carr ended a long and wondrous career with Michigan that included winning over three-quarters of the games he coached and a National Championship in 1997. He ended with a big win over Florida in the Capital One Bowl to go out on a high note. Michigan hired Rodriguez as his replacement. Rodriguez led West Virginia to six straight 8+ win seasons, at least a share of the conference title in four years, and two BCS Bowl wins. Next season will be very interesting for the Michigan offense as several of the top players graduated or left early, the backup QB transferred to Arkansas, and Rodriguez will attempt to install his spread offense. I think Rodriguez is a great hire in the long term, but he may not have the Wolverines competing for conference championships for a couple of years.




Mississippi

Former Coach: Ed Orgeron
New Coach: Houston Nutt

Orgeron was given the boot after Mississippi went winless in conference play for the first time since 1982. In his three seasons, the Rebels never showed any progress and only won 3-4 games each year. While Nutt wasn't always the most popular guy at Arkansas, he proved that he could compete in the SEC West, so there's no reason to think he won't do the same at Mississippi. He should have Mississippi bowling in two or three seasons.




Navy

Former Coach: Paul Johnson
New Coach: Ken Niumatalolo

Johnson left to fill the Georgia Tech vacancy and will be tough to replace. He won 8-10 games in the last five of his six seasons as head coach at Navy. That type of success will be hard to replicate. Niumatalolo was an assistant under Johnson for the past six seasons and will continue to run the same triple option offense. He coached Navy in a close loss in the Poinsettia Bowl against Utah. Johnson was too good of a coach for me to believe that Miumatalolo will keep Navy at the same level, but he was impressive in the bowl game.




Nebraska

Former Coach: Bill Callahan
New Coach: Bo Pelini

Callahan was let go after a disappointing 2007 season, especially on the defensive side. Nebraska was last in the conference in points allowed, rushing yards and total yards allowed, and takeaways. The Cornhuskers were also in the bottom ten nationally in those four categories as well. Twice in the four years under Callahan, Nebraska was outscored by its opponents. Before he was hired, that had not happened since the 1968 season. It's not surprising that Nebraska hired a defensive specialist as the new head coach. Pelini was most recently the DC at LSU. Previously he was the DC at Oklahoma and Nebraska. He was the DC at Nebraska the year that Frank Solich was fired as the head coach. Pelini was named the interim head coach for the Alamo Bowl, and he led them to a 17-3 victory over Michigan State. Pelini should be a good hire, but his biggest obstacle is an improving Big 12 North.




Northern Illinois

Former Coach: Joe Novak
New Coach: Jerry Kill

Novak retired after 12 seasons as head coach of Northern Illinois. He led them to seven winning seasons and two bowl games. The Huskies had gone 21 years without playing in the postseason until Novak brought them to Silicon Valley Classic in 2004. He had a disappointing final season, but he was still a great coach for the Huskies. He will be replaced by Jerry Kill, the former head coach at Southern Illinois. Kill led the Salukis to the FCS playoffs for the past five seasons. They made it to the semifinals in 2007 where they lost to Delaware. He even beat Northern Illinois in 2007. Kill should be a good hire and will have Northern Illinois back to contending for MAC championships soon.




SMU

Former Coach: Phil Bennett
New Coach: June Jones

Phil Bennett was on his way to rebuilding a downtrodden SMU program and was a four point loss to Rice in 2006 away from bringing them to their first bowl game since 1984. He lost his job in the middle of a disastrous 2007 season in which SMU only won a single game. Five of the eleven losses were by a touchdown or less, so there's more talent on this team that the record indicates. I think Bennett got a raw deal from the administration after one bad season. SMU opened up their pocketbook and hired June Jones away from Hawaii at $2 million a year. Jones will have enough talent to start implementing his run-and-shoot offense right away. Jones improved Hawaii by nine wins in his first season there. He probably won't match that number at SMU, but look for a marked improvement from them next season. While I don't like the way that Bennett was treated, Jones is obviously an upgrade over him. Look for SMU to be in the postseason in the next year or two.




Southern Miss

Former Coach: Jeff Bower
New Coach: Larry Fedora

While I thought that Phil Bennett was treated unfairly at SMU, it doesn't even compare to Southern Miss forcing out Jeff Bower. All Bower did was lead them to 15 winning seasons in 17 years as head coach, 10 bowl games, four conference titles (one shared) and another East division crown. Three times he was named the conference coach of the year and in 2004 he was named the conference coach of the decade. Larry Fedora takes over at the helm now. He was most recently the OC for Oklahoma State. Fedora has never been a head coach outside of high school. He may do well at Southern Miss, but I doubt he will match Bower's consistency and longevity.




Texas A&M

Former Coach: Dennis Franchione
New Coach: Mike Sherman

Dennis Franchione resigned after a tumultuous five year with a mediocre record and scandal involving selling inside information to boosters. He led the Aggies to three bowl games, but all three were losses and two were blowouts by more than 30 points each. Sherman was the offensive line coach for Texas A&M from 1989-1993. He was also the head coach of the Green Bay Packers from 2000-2005. He spent the next two years with the Houston Texans before being hired by Texas A&M. I think this is a solid hire, but he will have difficulty in the tough Big 12 South.




UCLA

Former Coach: Karl Dorrell
New Coach: Rick Neuheisel

Dorrell took UCLA to a bowl game every season in his five year stint as head coach, but they were still known as an underachieving ball club. Dorrell also went 1-4 in those bowl games and only won more than seven games in a season once. The UCLA program has a ton of potential, and it was obvious that Dorrell wasn't going to be the one to help them reach that potential. UCLA made an interesting hire in Neuheisel. He was a proven winner at Colorado and Washington, but he had a run-in with the NCAA over gambling charges. He was never sanctioned by the NCAA, and he actually won a $4.5 million lawsuit against them. It seems inevitable that the NCAA will be watching Neuheisel like a hawk, just waiting for him to make a mistake. I'm surprised that UCLA wants that much scrutiny, but Neuheisel is a good coach.




West Virginia

Former Coach: Rich Rodriguez
New Coach: Bill Stewart

Rodriguez left a successful career at West Virginia for the Michigan head coaching job. He leaves behind a talented team, and the right coach can continue to win with them. Time will tell if Stewart is that coach. After a huge Fiesta Bowl win, it was obvious that the players wanted him to be the head coach. Since he has already won over the locker room, now he just has to prove that he can handle all of the other responsibilities of a head coach. This hire appears to be the right one in the short term, but I'm not sure if he will have the long term success that Rodriguez would have had.




Washington State

Former Coach: Bill Doba
New Coach: Paul Wulff

Doba and Washington State mutually decided for him to not return as head coach in 2008. Doba led Washington State to a ten win season and a Holiday Bowl win in his first season. For the next four seasons, he never had a winning season again or led the team to a bowl game. Washington State is often considered one of the toughest places to be a coach and recruit because of its remote location. They made the best hire possible by bringing in a coach who has had success in a similar situation. Wulff was the head coach of Eastern Washington, another remote school that plays at the FCS level. He coached them for eight seasons and coached them to a winning record in seven of those years. They played in the FCS playoffs in three of the last four seasons. He is also a Washington State alum who played center for the Cougars.

2007 Season Wrapup

My Picks:

Week 1 58-12 (82.86%)
Week 2 52-9 (85.25%)
Week 3 46-19 (70.77%)
Week 4 45-15 (75.00%)
Week 5 44-15 (74.58%)
Week 6 37-19 (66.07%)
Week 7 39-16 (70.91%)
Week 8 39-16 (70.91%)
Week 9 38-14 (73.08%)
Week 10 43-11 (79.63%)
Week 11 38-17 (69.09%)
Week 12 42-10 (80.77%)
Week 13 36-12 (75.00%)
Week 14 12-6 (66.67%)
Bowls 22-10 (74.62%)


Season 591-201 (74.62%)


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* Congratulations to LSU, the 2007 FBS National Champion.

* My friend over at Rogers Poll finished picking games at an even 75%, three games ahead of me.

* This year was one of the most competitive bowl seasons I can remember. 17 games were settled by a touchdown or less. Eight of those games were settled by three points or less. Oddly enough, with over half of the bowl games being settled by a score or less, only one went into overtime (Chik-fil-A Bowl). Most people seem to forget how many good games there were since the BCS Bowls only had one close game.

* Things I'll remember from the bowl season: BYU blocking a last second UCLA field goal to secure a win, Nevada getting shut out for the first time in their history as a FBS team, Bill Stewart coaching himself into the head coaching job at West Virginia, Missouri and Kansas both proving they should have been in BCS Bowls, and the state of Florida sending five teams to bowls and then only registering a single win (FAU).

* Conference Record in Bowl Games (sorted by games over .500)

SEC (7-2)
MWC (4-1)
Big 12 (5-3)
Pac 10 (4-2)
Big East (3-2)
Sun Belt (1-0)
Indy (0-1)
Big Ten (3-5)
C-USA (2-4)
WAC (1-3)
MAC (0-3)
ACC (2-6)

* The SEC wins the conference bragging rights, but the Mountain West actually had the best winning percentage. Unfortunately, the MWC isn't getting enough recognition for their performance.

* Fresno State was the only team that kept the WAC from having a completely embarrassing bowl season. Nothing saved the MAC from that fate.

Final Top 25

1 - LSU (3)
2 - Missouri (6)
3 - West Virginia (7)
4 - Georgia (8)
5 - Oklahoma (2)
6 - USC (9)
7 - Virginia Tech (5)
8 - Ohio St (4)
9 - Hawaii (1)
10 - Kansas (10)
11 - Boston College (12)
12 - BYU (17)
13 - Texas (19)
14 - South Florida (11)
15 - Tennessee (22)
16 - Illinois (13)
17 - Cincinnati (20)
18 - Clemson (14)
19 - Oregon (21)
20 - Boise St (15)
21 - Texas Tech (UR)
22 - Florida (18)
23 - Arizona St (16)
24 - Auburn (UR)
25 - UCF (UR)


Added - Texas Tech, Auburn, UCF
Dropped - Virginia, Connecticut, Wisconsin

Bowl Picks for January 2-7

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Glendale, Arizona
January 2, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX


Oklahoma
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Wins: Missouri (11-2) twice
Worst Loss: Colorado (6-6)

The Rundown: Oklahoma had another big season, winning the Big 12 title and will be going to Fiesta Bowl. They beat six bowl teams along the way, including four who won nine or more games. The two losses were on the road by a combined total of 10 points to bowl teams. The offense was second in the Big 12 in points scored and the defense was second in the Big 12 in points allowed. A late loss in the season to Texas Tech kept them out of the National Championship game, but they were able to show up strong and dominate Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. They were led by QB Sam Bradford, who set the NCAA freshman record for touchdown passes with 34.


West Virginia
Record: 10-2 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-1
Best Win: Cincinnati (9-3)
Worst Loss: Pittsburgh (5-7)

The Rundown: Going into the final weekend of the regular season, it seemed all but guaranteed that West Virginia was going to the National Championship game. All that stood in their way was a home game against a Pittsburgh team with a losing record. Pitt was able to get the win and send the Mountaineers to the Fiesta Bowl instead. The only other loss was a South Florida by eight points. Along the way they beat six bowl teams, including three on the road. In their 10 wins, they never scored fewer than 28 points. In their losses, they scored only 13 and 9 points. After the regular season, head coach Rich Rodriguez left to take the Michigan vacancy. At this posting, the West Virginia head coach position has not been filled.

The Matchup: Oklahoma is playing very well right now while West Virginia is reeling from a bad loss to end the season. West Virginia is also without their head coach for this game. Both teams have high scoring offenses and stingy defenses, but I think Oklahoma is a little better on both sides of the ball.


The Pick: Oklahoma



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FedEx Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Miami, Florida
January 3, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX


Virginia Tech
Record: 11-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: Boston College (10-3)

The Rundown: Virginia Tech won the ACC title and is going to the Orange Bowl. Both of the losses on the season were to teams that won ten games each. They beat six bowl teams along the way, including earning a split with Boston College in the conference championship game. They were beat soundly in the second week of the season by LSU, but they have continuously improved since that game to become one of the top ten teams in the country. The last five games were all wins, and four were against bowl teams.


Kansas
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Texas A&M (7-5)
Worst Loss: Missouri (11-2)

The Rundown: Kansas was one of the most surprising teams in the country this year. They won their first 11 games before falling to Missouri in the finale. They didn’t play a tough schedule, playing only five bowl teams. They beat four of those teams, including two with 6-6 records. That means they were only 2-1 against teams with winning records. They were the highest scoring team in the Big 12, averaging more than 44 points per game. The defense was also impressive, allowing a conference low 16 points per game. Kansas is still a questionable BCS team, and I think Missouri was the more deserving team.


The Matchup: Kansas played one elite team this season and was beat with relative ease. Virginia Tech is coming off an elite win over Boston College. The VT defense should be able to shut down the high scoring Kansas offense. This game could be disappointing for what is normally a great bowl game.


The Pick: Virginia Tech



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International Bowl
Rutgers vs. Ball State
Toronto, Ontario
January 5, 2008
Noon Eastern
ESPN2


Rutgers
Record: 7-5 (3-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Louisville (6-6)

The Rundown: Rutgers was supposed to be a contender for the Big East title, but instead finished with a losing record in conference play. Rutgers only beat two bowl teams, Navy and South Florida on a short week. They played four close games, earning a split in those games. The main difference between last season when they won 11 games and this season when they won seven games is the defense. The defense is allowing 7.5 more points per games this season.


Ball State
Record: 7-5 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Navy (8-4)
Worst Loss: Miami Ohio (6-7)

The Rundown: Ball State was one of the better teams in the MAC and will be playing in their first bowl game since 1996. Ball State has never won a bowl game, losing the only three in the program’s history. Navy was the only bowl team they beat, one of two common opponents with Rutgers. The other common opponent was Buffalo, and both teams in the International Bowl won both of those games. Ball State lost two games this season by a single point, so their best case record was 9-3. They also lost three close games, so they also could have finished 4-8 easily.


The Matchup: As long as Rutgers is prepared and shows up to this game, they should be able to win the game as they are the better team.


The Pick: Rutgers



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GMAC Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa
Mobile, Alabama
January 6, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN


Bowling Green
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 0-2
Best Win: Buffalo (5-7)
Worst Loss: Ohio (6-6)

The Rundown: Bowling Green finished with the best overall record in the conference, but didn’t play in the conference championship game because Miami (Ohio) owned the tiebreaker. Instead they will be the only MAC East team to play in the postseason. The defense put up similar numbers as last season, but the offense was greatly improved. They went from averaging 19.5 points per game last year to 32 this year.


Tulsa
Record: 9-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: BYU (10-2)
Worst Loss: UTEP (4-8)

The Rundown: Tulsa went to its second conference championship game in three years, this time under first year head coach Todd Graham. They had a huge win against a great BYU team, but the only other bowl team they beat was Houston. That Houston game decided the C-USA West division. The only bad loss was against UTEP on the road by a single point. The offense was the highest scoring team in the C-USA, averaging almost 40 points per game.


The Matchup: These are similar teams as they both score a lot and both give up almost as many points. Tulsa scores more and should be able to light up the Ball State defense.


The Pick: Tulsa



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Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU vs. Ohio State
New Orleans, Louisiana
January 7, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX


LSU
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Win: Virginia Tech (11-2)
Worst Loss: Kentucky (7-5)

The Rundown: LSU was a very interesting team to watch this season. After the first few games, it was obvious that the Tigers were one of the best and most talented teams in the country. When they were ranked #1, they lost in triple overtime to Kentucky. They won the next four games before losing in triple overtime again, this time to Arkansas at home in the regular season finale. They beat Tennessee in the SEC Championship and became the first two-loss team to make it to the BCS National Championship game. After the first three games, LSU was outscoring their opponents 137-7. The next rest of the season was very different, as they played in six close games out of ten.


Ohio State
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 5-1
Best Win: Wisconsin (9-3)
Worst Loss: Illinois (9-3)

The Rundown: Ohio State seemingly backed into the BCS National Championship game, as teams ahead of them kept losing in the two weeks after the Buckeyes’ season was over. Ohio State only lost one game, and that was to Illinois by a touchdown at home. Ohio State beat five bowl teams, but only one that won more than eight games (Wisconsin). The defense was one of the best in the country, allowing less than 11 points per game. They held their opponents to a touchdown or less in 7 of 12 games. The only team to score more than 17 points against them was in the game they lost.


The Matchup: Ohio State got embarrassed in last year’s game, but I don’t expect that to happen twice in a row. On the other hand, LSU has dominated its past two bowl opponents under head coach Les Miles. Ohio State should play much better this time around, especially the defense, but it will not be enough against a healthy and prepared LSU squad.

The Pick: LSU