State of the MAC: Since adding Temple as a football-only school in 2007, the MAC has had 13 members. That leaves the conference in the awkward situation of having uneven divisions with seven teams in the East and only six in the West. That will change in 2012 when Massachusetts will be joining the conference as a football-only member. Division realignment is not currently decided for when the MAC grows the 14 teams.
The Favorite (East): The entire East division appears to be rebuilding with three new head coaches and two others who are in their second season. With that in mind, experience may be the most important factor in determining the East champion. I think Ohio, led by veteran head coach Frank Solich, will make it to the title game in Detroit. The schedule sets up nicely, as the Bobcats host the other East contenders and avoid the top three teams in the West.
The Favorite (West): Toledo's noted improvement may have flown under the radar last year because of Northern Illinois's great season. Now the Huskies are replacing their head coach and Toledo is returning the most starters in the MAC. In a surprising stat, the Rockets have knocked off an AQ school in each of the past five seasons. Toledo is primed for a big season and is easily the best team in the conference.
The Challenger (East): Dave Clawson led Bowling Green to the postseason in his first season, but his team regressed badly in his second season last year. The Falcons should be able to return to being competitive after just winning one conference game in 2010. The biggest roadblock to success is the schedule though. They draw the three best teams from the West and miss Akron from their own division.
The Challenger (West): Northern Illinois is replacing its head coach, but still should be one of the best teams in the MAC. The offense will probably need to outscore most teams, since the defense only returns two starters. The offense should be up to the task, as it returns its star quarterback, top three receivers and the entire offensive line.
The Sleeper: Kent State could be a surprise contender in the East. The Golden Flashes always seemed to underachieve under former head coach Doug Martin, so maybe new blood will reverse their fortunes. Darrell Hazell was just a position coach and assistant head coach at Ohio State, so his lack of experience as at least a coordinator is a concern. In the wide open East division, don't sleep on Kent State.
The Letdown: Miami shockingly won the MAC championship game and the GoDaddy.com Bowl to finish with ten wins last season. There are several factors pointing to big regression this season. Along with a head coaching change, the RedHawks were also 6-0 in close games last season and were actually outscored despite having a 10-4 final record. They do return 17 starters, but I'm still counting on a down year.
Conference Player of the Year: Best individual performance will likely go to NIU's quarterback Chandler Harnish. He had over 3300 combined passing and rushing yards and accounted for 28 touchdowns. And that was with his starting running back scoring 22 times himself.
I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I missed badly on Miami. I expected them to finish 3-9, but they actually finished 8-4 in the regular season and then won two postseason games also.
Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Toledo at Ohio State, September 10 - Aided by all the offseason turmoil in Columbus, Toledo will be looking for the upset of the season here. Remember Toledo knocked off Michigan in RichRod's first season.
* Northern Illinois vs Wisconsin at Chicago, September 17 - NIU's new head coach was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin previously.
* Penn State at Temple, September 17 - Temple hasn't beaten Penn State since 1941 (0-35-1 since.)
* Toledo at Syracuse, September 24 - If the Rockets can't upset the Buckeyes, then they have another shot at an AQ win two weeks later.
* Ball State vs Indiana at Indianapolis, September 3 - Two first-year head coaches face off in a neutral site game to start the season.
Projected Standings:
West:
Toledo | 9-3 | 7-1
Northern Illinois | 8-4 | 6-2
Western Michigan | 6-6 | 5-3
Central Michigan | 5-7 | 4-4
Ball St | 3-9 | 3-5
Eastern Michigan | 4-8 | 2-6
East:
Ohio | 8-4 | 6-2
Bowling Green | 6-6 | 4-4
Temple | 5-7 | 4-4
Kent St | 5-7 | 3-5
Miami (OH) | 3-9 | 3-5
Buffalo | 4-8 | 3-5
Akron | 3-9 | 2-6
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