Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
California vs. Air Force
Fort Worth, Texas
December 31
12:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
California
Record: 6-6 (3-6)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Tennessee (9-4)
Worst Loss: Washington (4-9)
The Rundown: California had a great beginning to the season, winning the first five games and being ranked as high as #2 in the country. During that stretch, the Golden Bears picked up good wins against Tennessee and Oregon. The second half was the polar opposite. They lost six of their last seven games, with the only win by a field goal over Washington State. The defense was relatively constant all season, but the offense was much better in the first half. California scored over 100 points in the first half more than in the second half (219-114).
Air Force
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: Utah (8-4)
Worst Loss: Navy (8-4)
The Rundown: Air Force is in my opinion the most surprising team in the country this year. Previous head coach Fisher DeBerry retired, and nobody knew what to expect. Troy Calhoun, the OC of the Houston Texans and Air Force alum, took over as the new head coach and led them to their first bowl game since 2002 and their first nine win season since 2000.
The Matchup: This game could easily go either way. California is obviously the more talented team, but they haven’t been living up to expectations since September. Air Force has had a great season, but like California their best wins were in September. The team that shows up to play and wants it the most will win this game.
The Pick: California
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Roady's Humanitarian Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State
Boise, Idaho
December 31
2:00 pm Eastern
ESPN2
Georgia Tech
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 1-5
Best Win: Clemson (9-3)
Worst Loss: Maryland (6-6)
The Rundown: Georgia Tech had the talent and the schedule to have a huge year, but underachieved so much that head coach Chan Gailey was fired after the regular season. Former Navy head coach Paul Johnson was brought in to fill the vacancy. Georgia Tech only beat one team with a winning record all season, a 13-3 victory over Clemson at home. The Yellow Jackets were beat soundly at home by three good teams: Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Georgia. The Georgia loss was the sixth in a row in that rivalry. Defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta will coach them in the bowl game.
Fresno State
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-4
Best Win: Nevada (6-6)
Worst Loss: Texas A&M (7-5)
The Rundown: After last season’s disappointment, Fresno State is back to their winning ways. The offense was able to solve its problems and scored over 100 points more than last season (9.25 more points per game). Fresno State only beat one bowl team (Nevada), but pushed Texas A&M to three overtimes before losing when they failed to convert a two-point conversion. They also played Hawaii close, only losing by a touchdown.
The Matchup: Fresno State thrives on games like this where they have the opportunity to show everyone how good they are. Georgia Tech is in the middle of a coaching change and coming off a very lackluster year. Georgia Tech will have to find a way to get up for this game or Fresno will blow them away.
The Pick: Fresno State
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Brut Sun Bowl
South Florida vs. Oregon
El Paso, Texas
December 31
2:00 pm Eastern
CBS
South Florida
Record: 9-3 (4-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: West Virginia (10-2)
Worst Loss: Rutgers (7-5)
The Rundown: South Florida is growing into a Big East powerhouse and is beginning to get a lot of national attention. The Bulls won their first six games, including victories over Auburn, West Virginia, and UCF (combined record: 28-9). South Florida stumbled at Rutgers on a short week and then lost to Connecticut at Cincinnati. The three losses were by a combined 15 points, and all were to bowl teams. South Florida bounced back to win the last three, but it wasn’t enough to get into the Big East title race. The offense was greatly improved this season, averaging almost 13 more points per game, and the defense continued to be fast and strong.
Oregon
Record: 8-4 (5-4)
Record against bowl teams: 5-3
Best Win: USC (10-2)
Worst Loss: Arizona (5-7)
The Rundown: For the first nine games of the season, Oregon was arguably one of the best teams in the country and QB Dennis Dixon was the frontrunner for the Heisman by the end of that stretch. Those nine games included five wins over bowl teams including Arizona State and USC who both finished at 10-2. The only loss was against California by a touchdown. When Dennis Dixon was lost to a season-ending injury, this was simply not the same team. They lost the last three games, including any shot at a national or conference title. The lowest point was when they were shut out by a very average UCLA team.
The Matchup: I’ve dubbed this game the “What might have been?” bowl. I can’t help but wonder what might have been in Dixon had never been hurt. This Oregon team could very well be playing for in the National Championship game. And what would have been in South Florida had gotten a couple of balls bounce their way during that three game losing streak. They were 1-3 in close games. With a little more luck, they could also be playing in the National Championship game. The matchup itself all comes down to the fact that this Oregon team just can’t figure out how to win games without its star QB.
The Pick: South Florida
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Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs. Florida State
Nashville, Tennessee
December 31
4:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Kentucky
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: LSU (11-2)
Worst Loss: South Carolina (6-6)
The Rundown: This Kentucky team had a huge first half of the season, starting 6-1 including a triple overtime shocker where they knocked off top-ranked LSU. They also picked up good wins against instate rival Louisville, Sun Belt champion FAU, and Arkansas. The Wildcats were only able to win one more game out of the last five, including falling to rival Tennessee by a two point conversion in the fourth overtime period. Kentucky was led by QB Andre Woodson to have the fourth highest scoring offense in the SEC, scoring over 10 more points per game than last season.
Florida State
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 4-4
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: Miami (5-7)
The Rundown: Florida State had a slightly disappointing year, as they were expected to contend in the ACC. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher was brought in to improve the offense, but scoring actually went down on his watch. In fact they only scored 12 points more than their opponents all season. Fisher was still rewarded with an agreement that he will replace head coach Bobby Bowden when he eventually retires. Florida State did have a difficult schedule, as they played eight bowl teams. They split those games, but they also lost to 5-7 Miami. The Seminoles will probably be remembered most this year for ruining Boston College’s chance at a perfect season. An academic scandal has recently rocked Florida State, and 36 players will not be going to the bowl game due to either suspension or injury. Many of these players could also lose playing time next season.
The Matchup: Florida State usually shows up big in bowl games, but the thin numbers can’t be ignored. Kentucky was able to dismantle a pretty good Clemson team in this same bowl game last year, and I expect a similar result again this year.
The Pick: Kentucky
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Insight Bowl
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State
Tempe, Arizona
December 31
6:00 pm Eastern
NFL Network
Indiana
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Purdue (7-5)
Worst Loss: Northwestern (6-6)
The Rundown: Indiana tragically lost head coach Terry Hoeppner in the offseason, but were able to fulfill his promise of a “13th game.” Bill Lynch took over the team and led them to their first bowl game since 1993. The schedule worked out nicely since they missed both Michigan and Ohio State. The only Big Ten team with a winning record that Indiana beat was Purdue in the final game with a bowl berth on the line. Both the offense and the defense put up much better numbers than last season. A couple of close losses against Penn State and Northwestern prevented an even bigger year for the Hoosiers.
Oklahoma State
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-5
Best Win: Texas Tech (8-4)
Worst Loss: Texas A&M (7-5)
The Rundown: Much like last season, Oklahoma State did just enough to get to a bowl game. The Cowboys had road woes all season, only winning at Nebraska and Baylor. Troy was able to upset them easily in the third week of the season. They lost close games against Texas A&M and Texas, but also won close games against Texas Tech and Kansas State. Some had predicted a big season for Oklahoma State, but the offense and defense actually put up worse numbers than last season.
The Matchup: This Oklahoma State team just never lived up to the high expectations it had. Indiana, on the other hand, exceeded all expectations and had a wonderful year. The good fortune they’ve had all season will continue into the bowl game.
The Pick: Indiana
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Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Clemson vs. Auburn
Atlanta, Georgia
December 31
7:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
Clemson
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Wake Forest (8-4)
Worst Loss: Georgia Tech (7-5)
The Rundown: Clemson had another successful season, but just missed a chance to play in the ACC Championship game when they lost to Boston College by a field goal. Clemson picked up good wins against Florida State in the opener and Wake Forest. They also hung 70 points on MAC champion Central Michigan and beat instate rival South Carolina. QB Cullen Harper had a great season in his first one as a starter, and he challenged Boston College’s Matt Ryan for best passer in the conference.
Auburn
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Mississippi St (7-5)
The Rundown: Auburn had another good year under head coach Tommy Tuberville. They won eight games, including the sixth straight victory over rival Alabama. They lost four games, but three were by six points or fewer, and one was in overtime. All four losses were to bowl teams. The three wins over bowl teams were all by a touchdown or less, but two of them were on the road. The Tigers split the six close games they played in.
The Matchup: This game is one of the best matchups of the bowl season and is one that I’m looking forward to the most. It’s also one of the most difficult to predict. Both head coaches were rumored to fill the Arkansas vacancy, but both stuck with their current positions and were given extensions. This game could easily go either way, but Clemson gets the nod since I think they are building towards a huge 2008 season.
The Pick: Clemson
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Outback Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Tampa, Florida
January 1, 2008
11:00 am Eastern
ESPN
Wisconsin
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: Michigan (8-4)
Worst Loss: Penn State (8-4)
The Rundown: Wisconsin had a good season, but struggles on the road prevented any shot at the Big Ten title. Wisconsin lost to Illinois, Penn State, and Ohio State on the road. The other two road games were close wins against bad teams. The Badgers had one of the best defenses last year, but that was not the case this year. Instead of being the best defense in the conference, it was much more toward the middle of the pack this season.
Tennessee
Record: 9-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 5-4
Best Win: Georgia (10-2)
Worst Loss: Alabama (6-6)
The Rundown: Tennessee will be playing in their second straight Outback Bowl after representing the SEC East in the conference championship game. They lost that game to LSU, one of four losses on the season. The other three losses were on the road to bowl teams, but two of those teams finished just 6-6. The Volunteers had great success in close games, winning three in the regular season including two in overtime. The game against Kentucky went into four overtime periods and ended when Kentucky was unable to convert a two point conversion attempt. The defense had trouble all season, finishing only tenth in the conference in points allowed. Four times they gave up 40+ points (1-3), compared to last season when they never gave up any more than 33 points in one game.
The Matchup: Both of these teams won nine games, but neither did so very impressively. Tennessee did not play well in this bowl last year against Penn State, but that shouldn’t be the case again. As long as they are able to play as well as they are capable of, they should get the win.
The Pick: Tennessee
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AT&T Cotton Bowl
Missouri vs. Arkansas
Dallas, Texas
January 1, 2008
11:30 am Eastern
FOX
Missouri
Record: 11-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 5-2
Best Win: Kansas (11-1)
Worst Losses: Oklahoma (11-2) twice
The Rundown: Missouri made it the Big 12 Championship game by beating Kansas in the regular season finale and were just one win away from going to the National Championship game. Some highlights of the season include beating two BCS Bowl bound teams plus three other bowl teams. They were the only team to beat Kansas. Their Achilles heel was the Sooners of Oklahoma. Twice they beat the Tigers, first to ruin a chance at a perfect season, and then to prevent them from winning the conference. In my opinion, Missouri should definitely be playing in Orange Bowl instead of Kansas. They deserve the BCS bid instead of just a trip to the Cotton Bowl.
Arkansas
Record: 8-4 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: LSU (11-2)
Worst Loss: Alabama (6-6)
The Rundown: Arkansas had an up and down season marked by outstanding play by RB Darren McFadden, but several losses against good teams. They obviously got an elite win over LSU in the regular season finale, but they needed three overtimes to get it. The only other bowl team they beat was Mississippi State. Arkansas did lose games to Alabama and Auburn by a total of five points, so they were also really close to a ten win season. Head coach Houston Nutt was offered an extension after the season ended, but due to restlessness within the fanbase he chose to resign. He was hired soon afterward by Mississippi to replace Ed Orgeron. Atlanta Falcons head coach Booby Petrino was brought in to fill the vacancy.
The Matchup: Arkansas was overmatched before their head coach left. You can never count a team with McFadden and Felix Jones in the backfield, but they will have their collective hands full with Missouri. QB Chase Daniel will lead Missouri to their first ever 12-win season.
The Pick: Missouri
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Konica Minolta Gator Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Virginia
Jacksonville, Florida
January 1, 2008
1:00 pm Eastern
CBS
Texas Tech
Record: 8-4 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Oklahoma (11-2)
Worst Loss: Oklahoma State (6-6)
The Rundown: Texas Tech had another good year under head coach Mike Leach, but a couple of bad losses kept it from being a great year. Losses to Oklahoma State and Colorado by a combined nine points kept the Red Raiders out of the Big 12 Championship and potentially a BCS bowl. Texas Tech has had eight straight winning seasons under Leach, but he hasn’t been able to take them to a championship game yet. Tech had great breakout season by redshirt freshman WR Michael Crabtree who had 1861 yards and 21 touchdowns. They did get a huge win over Oklahoma, knocking them out of the national title hunt.
Virginia
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Connecticut (9-3)
Worst Loss: Wyoming (5-7)
The Rundown: Virginia had an interesting season, and it’s hard to get a good read on just how good they are. They beat four out of the five bowl teams they played, but also had bad losses to Wyoming and NC State. Also of the nine wins, six were by five or fewer points. All four wins against bowl team were close, including three by a single point each. That makes their worst case record 3-9. The Cavaliers have been getting lucky all season, who knows if that will carry on to the bowl game or not.
The Matchup: I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas Tech wins this game in a walk, or if Virginia wins on a last second field goal. The only thing that would surprise me would be a Virginia blowout.
The Pick: Texas Tech
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Capital One Bowl
Michigan vs. Florida
Orlando, Florida
January 1, 2008
1:00 pm Eastern
ABC
Florida
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Tennessee (9-4)
Worst Loss: Auburn (8-4)
The Rundown: Florida followed up its National Championship with another winning season. The only team that really beat them all season was Georgia. The losses to Auburn and LSU were both close games. The Gators didn’t really get an elite win except for Tennessee, but QB Tim Tebow did win the Heisman trophy.
Michigan
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Illinois (9-3)
Worst Loss: Appalachian State (FCS)
The Rundown: Michigan was a preseason contender for the national title, but an opening day loss to FCS member Appalachian State killed that dream. The next week they were lit up by Oregon as they still didn’t have any answer to the spread offense. Then they ripped off an eight game winning streak before losing the last two games. The disappointing season led to head coach Lloyd Carr turning in his resignation. They hired former West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez to replace Carr.
The Matchup: This could be one of the most lopsided bowl games of the entire season. The team on Michigan’s schedule that most resembles Florida was Oregon. Oregon won that game 39-7 at the Big House. Now Michigan won’t have home field advantage or their head coach. Expect Florida to win without any problems.
The Pick: Florida
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Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC
Pasadena, California
January 1, 2008
4:30 pm Eastern
ABC
Illinois
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 5-2
Best Win: Ohio State (11-1)
Worst Loss: Iowa (6-6)
The Rundown: Illinois had a gigantic turnaround with a seven game improvement over last season. They went from 2-10 a year ago to 9-3 and a BCS bowl berth. The Illini were a questionable recipient of a BCS bid, but the powers that be wanted to have the traditional Pac 10 – Big Ten matchup in the Rose Bowl. Illinois’ best win was obviously against Ohio State to become the only team to defeat the Buckeyes in the regular season. They beat five bowl teams total, but three of them were by a touchdown or less. The three losses were close by a combined total of 20 points.
USC
Record: 10-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Arizona State (10-2)
Worst Loss: Stanford (4-8)
The Rundown: USC did win ten games and won the conference, but as one of the most talented teams in the country anything other than playing in the National Championship game has to be a disappointment. USC was victim to one of the worst losses of the season when they were beat at home by a Stanford team that finished with four wins. The Stanford loss was by a single point, and the other loss was at Oregon by a touchdown. While not necessarily their fault, the Trojans played a relatively soft schedule. They only played three teams with winning records, going 2-1 in those games. Road games to Notre Dame and Nebraska looked much more interesting in the preseason than they turned out to be. The offense and the defense put up similar numbers to last season, which explains the similar results.
The Matchup: Regardless of how much improved Illinois is this season, I’m still a little skeptical of Ron Zook as a head coach. I have a hard time believing he will be able to match wits against Pete Carroll on the opposite sideline. I know that USC has had its struggles this season, but I fell confident they will make a strong showing in the bowl game.
The Pick: USC
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Allstate Sugar Bowl
Hawaii vs. Georgia
New Orleans, Louisiana
January 1, 2008
8:30 pm Eastern
FOX
Hawaii
Record: 12-0 (8-0)
Record against bowl teams: 3-0
Best Win: Boise State (10-2)
Worst Loss: N/A
The Rundown: Hawaii is the second straight WAC team to finish undefeated and break into the BCS but not play for a national title. I’m still amazed that a two-loss team will play for it all instead of an unbeaten team. The Warriors did have problems with a soft non-conference schedule and winning five close games. The OOC include two FCS teams, a two-win team (UNLV), and a four-win team (Washington). They were also pushed to overtime by two 5-7 teams, although both were on the road. Hawaii finished 3-0 against bowl teams including an impressive win over ten-win Boise State. The Warriors again had one of the top offenses in the nation and were led by Heisman candidate QB Colt Brennan.
Georgia
Record: 10-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-1
Best Win: Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: South Carolina (6-6)
The Rundown: Georgia had great season with double digit wins, but were arguably overrated for certain reasons. Everyone seems to forget about the Bulldogs problems on the road. They needed overtime to beat Alabama (6-6), lost by three touchdowns to Tennessee, and only beat Vanderbilt (5-7) by a field goal. The only good road win was against instate rival Georgia Tech, who they beat 31-17. Couple the road issues with a loss at home to a mediocre South Carolina (6-6) team, and you have to wonder how good this team is. The Bulldogs did finish strong, winning their last five games against teams that finished with winning records. The only two really good wins they picked up were against Florida on a neutral site and Auburn at home.
The Matchup: Probably the most intriguing bowl game of the season is the Sugar Bowl. Hawaii hasn’t played an opponent of Georgia’s caliber yet this season, but they haven’t lost yet either. With Utah and Boise State winning BCS bowls previously, Hawaii is looking to be the latest non-BCS team to finish undefeated. Georgia is playing very well lately too and can’t be discounted. It will be interesting to see how well their defense can contain the high octane Hawaii passing attack. Hopefully this game doesn’t disappoint the high expectations I have for it.
The Pick: Hawaii
Monday, December 31, 2007
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Bowl Picks for December 26-30
Motor City Bowl
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Detroit, Michigan
December 26
7:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
Purdue
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 1-5
Best Win: Central Michigan (8-5)
Worst Loss: Indiana (7-5)
The Rundown: Purdue had a veteran, experienced team this season and could have been a surprise team In the Big Ten. Instead, the Boilermakers struggled against good teams and did just enough to get to a bowl game. Interestingly, the only bowl team that Purdue beat is the same Central Michigan team they are facing in the bowl game. The offense was much improved behind QB Curtis Painter and a talented receiving corps, and it averaged almost a touchdown more per game than last season. Purdue had climbed all the way to a 7-2 record before losing the last three games, including to Indiana on a last second field goal.
Central Michigan
Record: 8-5 (6-1)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Ball State (7-5)
Worst Loss: North Dakota State (FCS)
The Rundown: Central Michigan was a dominant team in conference play with their only loss was by a field goal after they had already locked up the MAC West. Unfortunately the OOC was a completely different story. Other than a win against Army, they were blown out in the other four games. Kansas, Purdue, Clemson, and FCS-member North Dakota State all beat Central Michigan convincingly with a combined score of 211-57. The Chippewas are led by first year head coach Butch Jones, the former West Virginia WR coach and previously the OC for Central Michigan.
The Matchup: This game was already played once this season on September 15. Purdue won it easily with a final score of 45-22. Both teams have continued to play at the same level as they did on that game, so the only difference is that now it will be on a neutral field instead of Purdue having the home field advantage. That won’t be enough to change the outcome.
The Pick: Purdue
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Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Arizona State vs. Texas
San Diego, California
December 27
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Arizona State
Record: 10-2 (7-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-2
Best Win: Oregon State (8-4)
Worst Loss: Oregon (8-4)
The Rundown: Arizona State had a huge year, winning 10 games under new head coach Dennis Erickson. The Sun Devils won their first eight games, including victories over bowl teams Colorado, Oregon State and California. The first loss came on the road against an Oregon team with a healthy Dennis Dixon. The other loss came against USC that almost completely knocked them out of the Pac 10 title race. While Arizona State did beat four bowl teams, three of them finished with 6-6 records, and three of them were at home. Both times they faced a top tier team, they were beaten soundly. Arizona State did a great job at winning all of the games they were supposed to, but they weren’t able to capture an elite win this season.
Texas
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-2
Best Wins: Texas Tech (8-4) and UCF (10-3)
Worst Loss: Kansas State (5-7)
The Rundown: Texas had another good season, but couldn’t do enough to win the Big 12 South. Texas lost to Kansas State and Texas A&M both for the second straight year, even though the Longhorns appeared to be the better team. Throw in a loss in the Red River Rivalry, and Texas finished with just a 5-3 record in conference. Texas did score a couple of good non-conference wins against UCF and TCU.
The Matchup: This game is often considered the first major bowl of the season, since it is usually the first to have two ranked teams participate in it. This year’s matchup should not disappoint. Arizona State won 10 games, but none against the caliber of opponent that Texas is. Texas has struggled at times this season, but I expect them to show up strong in the bowl game.
The Pick: Texas
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Champs Sports Bowl
Boston College vs. Michigan State
Orlando, Florida
December 28
5:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Boston College
Record: 10-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 5-3
Best Win: Virginia Tech (11-2)
Worst Loss: Maryland (6-6)
The Rundown: Boston College started off really hot, winning the first eight games and Matt Ryan garnered a lot of Heisman attention. First year head coach Jeff Jagodzinski was able to continue the success that former coach Tom O’Brien was able to build there. BC ended up losing the ACC Championship game to Virginia Tech, splitting the season series with them. Along with beating Virginia Tech, the Eagles also had good wins against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Bowling Green, and Clemson. BC’s two losses in the season were to bowl teams, albeit mediocre ones in Florida State and Maryland.
Michigan State
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Penn State (8-4)
Worst Loss: Northwestern (6-6)
The Rundown: Michigan State is also breaking in a new head coach in Mark Dantonio. Michigan State was competitive in every game they played, never losing a game by more than a touchdown. Also two of those losses were in overtime. Michigan State was the highest scoring team in the Big Ten this season and improved on their points scored by almost nine per game since last season.
The Matchup: Boston College has the nation’s best rush defense and will be going up against a power rush team. Michigan State has a good running game, but it will definitely have its problems in this game. Boston College should be able to win this game by forcing to the Spartans to have to beat them through the air.
The Pick: Boston College
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Texas Bowl
TCU vs. Houston
Houston, Texas
December 28
8:00 pm Eastern
NFL Network
TCU
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 1-4
Best Win: New Mexico (8-4)
Worst Loss: Wyoming (5-7)
The Rundown: TCU had a lot of preseason hype and started out well with a shutout victory against Baylor. Unfortunately, they lost the next two games and could never put more than two wins in a row. Other than the Texas game, TCU was never beaten by more than a touchdown. The Horned Frogs only picked up one quality win all season, a 37-0 shutout against 8-4 New Mexico. They didn’t beat another team with a winning record. TCU did finish 16th in the nation in total defense, but only third in the conference behind BYU and New Mexico.
Houston
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 0-4
Best Win: Tulane (4-8)
Worst Loss: East Carolina (7-5)
The Rundown: A quick look at Houston’s 8-4 record makes me think that they are a pretty good team. A closer look makes me wonder how good they actually are. While they did get eight wins, none of those games came against an opponent who won more than four games. It’s never a good sign when your two best wins are against Tulane and UTEP. The four losses came to bowl teams, and two of them were close games to East Carolina and Alabama. They had a chance to clinch the C-USA West title, but were blown out by Tulsa 56-7. Houston’s head coach Art Briles left after the regular season, taking over at Baylor.
The Matchup: I would have more faith in Houston if they still had Briles on the sideline, or if they had shown the capability to beat a good team. The game will be played in Houston, but the home field advantage will be minimal. I expect this to be a close game with TCU coming out on top.
The Pick: TCU
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Emerald Bowl
Maryland vs. Oregon State
San Francisco, California
December 28
8:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
Maryland
Record: 6-6 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 3-5
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: North Carolina (4-8)
The Rundown: Maryland was a very average team this season, not doing anything to stand out either positively or negatively. They had one really good win against Boston College and one bad loss against North Carolina. Both of those games were decided by a score. They beat a couple of 7-5 teams and lost to five bowl teams.
Oregon State
Record: 8-4 (6-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Oregon (8-4)
Worst Loss: UCLA (6-6)
The Rundown: Oregon State started off a little slow out of the gate with a 2-3 record, but finished strong winning six of the last seven. While they were beaten badly at home by UCLA, the other three losses were on the road to teams that won nine or ten games. Good victories include winning at California when they were ranked #2 in the country, at #17 Oregon, and Utah.
The Matchup: This game appears to be a mismatch with Oregon State being the much better team. Maryland will also be traveling all the way across the country and may not have many fans in attendance. I think the Terps may be able to keep it close, but the Beavers should get the win.
The Pick: Oregon State
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Meineke Car Care Bowl
Connecticut vs. Wake Forest
Charlotte, North Carolina
December 29
1:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Connecticut
Record: 9-3 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Virginia (9-3)
The Rundown: Connecticut was one of the biggest surprises this year; they won nine games and had a chance at the Big East title. The Huskies lost only one game in their first nine games, and that was by a single point on the road to a nine-win Virginia team. Along the way they picked up good wins against South Florida, Rutgers, and Louisville. Connecticut was beaten soundly in the other two losses, but it was against really good teams on the road. The loss against West Virginia was the game that decided the Big East race.
Wake Forest
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: Florida State (7-5)
Worst Loss: Nebraska (5-7)
The Rundown: Wake Forest lost the first two games of the season, but the ripped off a six game winning streak before splitting the last four games. Wake never picked up an elite win, but still beat three bowl teams and only had one bad loss. Only Clemson was able to blow out Wake Forest, the other three losses were by ten or fewer points.
The Matchup: Connecticut won a lot of games, but never beat a good team on the road. Since this game is almost a home team for Wake Forest, the Huskies may have some trouble. Also Jim Grobe is still one of the best coaches in the country, so the Demon Deacons get the nod.
The Pick: Wake Forest
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AutoZone Liberty Bowl
UCF vs. Mississippi State
Memphis, Tennessee
December 29
4:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
UCF
Record: 10-3 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Wins: Tulsa (9-4) twice
Worst Loss: East Carolina (7-5)
The Rundown: This year UCF is most well known for the huge year that RB Kevin Smith is having. He was the nation’s leading rusher with 2448 yards and 29 rushing TDs. Smith also led the nation in scoring with 180 points (13.85 per game.) UCF beat Tulsa in the C-USA Championship game to give them their first conference championship. UCF never had a bad loss. The only home loss was against Texas by a field goal in their brand new stadium. The other two were on the road against bowl teams East Carolina and South Florida.
Mississippi State
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Auburn (8-4)
Worst Loss: South Carolina (6-6)
The Rundown: Sylvester Croom has finally turned Mississippi State around and brought them to their first bowl game since 2000. Along the way they beat Kentucky and Alabama when they were ranked and had another good win against Auburn. The Bulldogs struggled all year on offense and finished in the bottom ten in total offense. The defense was able to keep them in the games that they won.
The Matchup: The UCF offensive machine is firing on all cylinders, and even a strong Mississippi State defense isn’t going to be able to stop it. UCF also has an underrated defense, which should give fits to the Bulldogs anemic offense. This game could be a statement win for how far the UCF program has come in a short amount of time.
The Pick: UCF
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Valero Alamo Bowl
Penn State vs. Texas A&M
San Antonio, Texas
December 29
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Penn State
Record: 8-4 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Wisconsin (9-3)
Worst Loss: Michigan State (7-5)
The Rundown: Penn State was a great team at home and a mediocre one on the road. The only road games they won were against Indiana by five points and Temple. They lost to Michigan, Illinois, and Michigan State on the road. They went 6-1 at home, with the only loss coming against Ohio State. They were able to knock off Purdue and Wisconsin at home.
Texas A&M
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Texas (9-3)
Worst Loss: Miami (5-7)
The Rundown: Texas A&M is in transition as head coach Dennis Franchione resigned after a tumultuous five year tenure. The defensive coordinator Gary Darnell will coach them in the bowl game. Former Green Bay Packers head coach Mike Sherman was hired to take over just three days after Franchione resigned. Sherman previously was an offensive line coach at A&M. The Aggies beat Texas for the second straight year, but the next best win was a triple-overtime thriller against Fresno State. A&M continued lose against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, and they also lost to Miami in a very down year.
The Matchup: Texas A&M has been a big soap opera for the past couple of months. Penn State isn’t a great team, but definitely hasn’t had to deal with any of the same drama. The more focused team gets the pick.
The Pick: Penn State
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PetroSun Independence Bowl
Alabama vs. Colorado
Shreveport, Louisiana
December 30
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Alabama
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-5
Best Win: Tennessee (9-4)
Worst Loss: Louisiana Monroe (6-6)
The Rundown: Alabama came into this season with the highest paid coach and grand expectations. Instead they barely finished with a .500 record and are headed to the same bowl game as they went to last year. Lowlights of the season included four consecutive losses to end the season and losing to instate rival Auburn for the sixth straight season. The Tide did pick up a good win against Tennessee, and none of the six losses were by more than touchdown. That’s a good sign for next season, but they still have to play Colorado in the bowl game.
Colorado
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Oklahoma (11-2)
Worst Loss: Iowa State (3-9)
The Rundown: Head coach Dan Hawkins and Colorado hit rock bottom last year and are crawling their way back up to the top of the Big 12 North. The Buffaloes were up and down all season, impossible to predict each week. They had great wins against Oklahoma at home and on the road against Texas Tech. They also were beat by Iowa State and Kansas State, and were blown out at home by Missouri. Keep your eye on LB Jordon Dizon, an exciting defender who should be all over the field making plays.
The Matchup: This should be a good game and could go either way. Both teams are led by elite coaches who are trying to reestablish winning traditions at programs that are in rebuilding mode. Colorado has more to prove, while Alabama was hoping for a better bowl game. In a close matchup, that might be enough to swing the vote in favor of the Buffaloes.
The Pick: Colorado
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Detroit, Michigan
December 26
7:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
Purdue
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 1-5
Best Win: Central Michigan (8-5)
Worst Loss: Indiana (7-5)
The Rundown: Purdue had a veteran, experienced team this season and could have been a surprise team In the Big Ten. Instead, the Boilermakers struggled against good teams and did just enough to get to a bowl game. Interestingly, the only bowl team that Purdue beat is the same Central Michigan team they are facing in the bowl game. The offense was much improved behind QB Curtis Painter and a talented receiving corps, and it averaged almost a touchdown more per game than last season. Purdue had climbed all the way to a 7-2 record before losing the last three games, including to Indiana on a last second field goal.
Central Michigan
Record: 8-5 (6-1)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Ball State (7-5)
Worst Loss: North Dakota State (FCS)
The Rundown: Central Michigan was a dominant team in conference play with their only loss was by a field goal after they had already locked up the MAC West. Unfortunately the OOC was a completely different story. Other than a win against Army, they were blown out in the other four games. Kansas, Purdue, Clemson, and FCS-member North Dakota State all beat Central Michigan convincingly with a combined score of 211-57. The Chippewas are led by first year head coach Butch Jones, the former West Virginia WR coach and previously the OC for Central Michigan.
The Matchup: This game was already played once this season on September 15. Purdue won it easily with a final score of 45-22. Both teams have continued to play at the same level as they did on that game, so the only difference is that now it will be on a neutral field instead of Purdue having the home field advantage. That won’t be enough to change the outcome.
The Pick: Purdue
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Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Arizona State vs. Texas
San Diego, California
December 27
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Arizona State
Record: 10-2 (7-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-2
Best Win: Oregon State (8-4)
Worst Loss: Oregon (8-4)
The Rundown: Arizona State had a huge year, winning 10 games under new head coach Dennis Erickson. The Sun Devils won their first eight games, including victories over bowl teams Colorado, Oregon State and California. The first loss came on the road against an Oregon team with a healthy Dennis Dixon. The other loss came against USC that almost completely knocked them out of the Pac 10 title race. While Arizona State did beat four bowl teams, three of them finished with 6-6 records, and three of them were at home. Both times they faced a top tier team, they were beaten soundly. Arizona State did a great job at winning all of the games they were supposed to, but they weren’t able to capture an elite win this season.
Texas
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-2
Best Wins: Texas Tech (8-4) and UCF (10-3)
Worst Loss: Kansas State (5-7)
The Rundown: Texas had another good season, but couldn’t do enough to win the Big 12 South. Texas lost to Kansas State and Texas A&M both for the second straight year, even though the Longhorns appeared to be the better team. Throw in a loss in the Red River Rivalry, and Texas finished with just a 5-3 record in conference. Texas did score a couple of good non-conference wins against UCF and TCU.
The Matchup: This game is often considered the first major bowl of the season, since it is usually the first to have two ranked teams participate in it. This year’s matchup should not disappoint. Arizona State won 10 games, but none against the caliber of opponent that Texas is. Texas has struggled at times this season, but I expect them to show up strong in the bowl game.
The Pick: Texas
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Champs Sports Bowl
Boston College vs. Michigan State
Orlando, Florida
December 28
5:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Boston College
Record: 10-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 5-3
Best Win: Virginia Tech (11-2)
Worst Loss: Maryland (6-6)
The Rundown: Boston College started off really hot, winning the first eight games and Matt Ryan garnered a lot of Heisman attention. First year head coach Jeff Jagodzinski was able to continue the success that former coach Tom O’Brien was able to build there. BC ended up losing the ACC Championship game to Virginia Tech, splitting the season series with them. Along with beating Virginia Tech, the Eagles also had good wins against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Bowling Green, and Clemson. BC’s two losses in the season were to bowl teams, albeit mediocre ones in Florida State and Maryland.
Michigan State
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Penn State (8-4)
Worst Loss: Northwestern (6-6)
The Rundown: Michigan State is also breaking in a new head coach in Mark Dantonio. Michigan State was competitive in every game they played, never losing a game by more than a touchdown. Also two of those losses were in overtime. Michigan State was the highest scoring team in the Big Ten this season and improved on their points scored by almost nine per game since last season.
The Matchup: Boston College has the nation’s best rush defense and will be going up against a power rush team. Michigan State has a good running game, but it will definitely have its problems in this game. Boston College should be able to win this game by forcing to the Spartans to have to beat them through the air.
The Pick: Boston College
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Texas Bowl
TCU vs. Houston
Houston, Texas
December 28
8:00 pm Eastern
NFL Network
TCU
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 1-4
Best Win: New Mexico (8-4)
Worst Loss: Wyoming (5-7)
The Rundown: TCU had a lot of preseason hype and started out well with a shutout victory against Baylor. Unfortunately, they lost the next two games and could never put more than two wins in a row. Other than the Texas game, TCU was never beaten by more than a touchdown. The Horned Frogs only picked up one quality win all season, a 37-0 shutout against 8-4 New Mexico. They didn’t beat another team with a winning record. TCU did finish 16th in the nation in total defense, but only third in the conference behind BYU and New Mexico.
Houston
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 0-4
Best Win: Tulane (4-8)
Worst Loss: East Carolina (7-5)
The Rundown: A quick look at Houston’s 8-4 record makes me think that they are a pretty good team. A closer look makes me wonder how good they actually are. While they did get eight wins, none of those games came against an opponent who won more than four games. It’s never a good sign when your two best wins are against Tulane and UTEP. The four losses came to bowl teams, and two of them were close games to East Carolina and Alabama. They had a chance to clinch the C-USA West title, but were blown out by Tulsa 56-7. Houston’s head coach Art Briles left after the regular season, taking over at Baylor.
The Matchup: I would have more faith in Houston if they still had Briles on the sideline, or if they had shown the capability to beat a good team. The game will be played in Houston, but the home field advantage will be minimal. I expect this to be a close game with TCU coming out on top.
The Pick: TCU
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Emerald Bowl
Maryland vs. Oregon State
San Francisco, California
December 28
8:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
Maryland
Record: 6-6 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 3-5
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: North Carolina (4-8)
The Rundown: Maryland was a very average team this season, not doing anything to stand out either positively or negatively. They had one really good win against Boston College and one bad loss against North Carolina. Both of those games were decided by a score. They beat a couple of 7-5 teams and lost to five bowl teams.
Oregon State
Record: 8-4 (6-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Oregon (8-4)
Worst Loss: UCLA (6-6)
The Rundown: Oregon State started off a little slow out of the gate with a 2-3 record, but finished strong winning six of the last seven. While they were beaten badly at home by UCLA, the other three losses were on the road to teams that won nine or ten games. Good victories include winning at California when they were ranked #2 in the country, at #17 Oregon, and Utah.
The Matchup: This game appears to be a mismatch with Oregon State being the much better team. Maryland will also be traveling all the way across the country and may not have many fans in attendance. I think the Terps may be able to keep it close, but the Beavers should get the win.
The Pick: Oregon State
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Meineke Car Care Bowl
Connecticut vs. Wake Forest
Charlotte, North Carolina
December 29
1:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Connecticut
Record: 9-3 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Virginia (9-3)
The Rundown: Connecticut was one of the biggest surprises this year; they won nine games and had a chance at the Big East title. The Huskies lost only one game in their first nine games, and that was by a single point on the road to a nine-win Virginia team. Along the way they picked up good wins against South Florida, Rutgers, and Louisville. Connecticut was beaten soundly in the other two losses, but it was against really good teams on the road. The loss against West Virginia was the game that decided the Big East race.
Wake Forest
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: Florida State (7-5)
Worst Loss: Nebraska (5-7)
The Rundown: Wake Forest lost the first two games of the season, but the ripped off a six game winning streak before splitting the last four games. Wake never picked up an elite win, but still beat three bowl teams and only had one bad loss. Only Clemson was able to blow out Wake Forest, the other three losses were by ten or fewer points.
The Matchup: Connecticut won a lot of games, but never beat a good team on the road. Since this game is almost a home team for Wake Forest, the Huskies may have some trouble. Also Jim Grobe is still one of the best coaches in the country, so the Demon Deacons get the nod.
The Pick: Wake Forest
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AutoZone Liberty Bowl
UCF vs. Mississippi State
Memphis, Tennessee
December 29
4:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
UCF
Record: 10-3 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Wins: Tulsa (9-4) twice
Worst Loss: East Carolina (7-5)
The Rundown: This year UCF is most well known for the huge year that RB Kevin Smith is having. He was the nation’s leading rusher with 2448 yards and 29 rushing TDs. Smith also led the nation in scoring with 180 points (13.85 per game.) UCF beat Tulsa in the C-USA Championship game to give them their first conference championship. UCF never had a bad loss. The only home loss was against Texas by a field goal in their brand new stadium. The other two were on the road against bowl teams East Carolina and South Florida.
Mississippi State
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Auburn (8-4)
Worst Loss: South Carolina (6-6)
The Rundown: Sylvester Croom has finally turned Mississippi State around and brought them to their first bowl game since 2000. Along the way they beat Kentucky and Alabama when they were ranked and had another good win against Auburn. The Bulldogs struggled all year on offense and finished in the bottom ten in total offense. The defense was able to keep them in the games that they won.
The Matchup: The UCF offensive machine is firing on all cylinders, and even a strong Mississippi State defense isn’t going to be able to stop it. UCF also has an underrated defense, which should give fits to the Bulldogs anemic offense. This game could be a statement win for how far the UCF program has come in a short amount of time.
The Pick: UCF
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Valero Alamo Bowl
Penn State vs. Texas A&M
San Antonio, Texas
December 29
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Penn State
Record: 8-4 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Wisconsin (9-3)
Worst Loss: Michigan State (7-5)
The Rundown: Penn State was a great team at home and a mediocre one on the road. The only road games they won were against Indiana by five points and Temple. They lost to Michigan, Illinois, and Michigan State on the road. They went 6-1 at home, with the only loss coming against Ohio State. They were able to knock off Purdue and Wisconsin at home.
Texas A&M
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Texas (9-3)
Worst Loss: Miami (5-7)
The Rundown: Texas A&M is in transition as head coach Dennis Franchione resigned after a tumultuous five year tenure. The defensive coordinator Gary Darnell will coach them in the bowl game. Former Green Bay Packers head coach Mike Sherman was hired to take over just three days after Franchione resigned. Sherman previously was an offensive line coach at A&M. The Aggies beat Texas for the second straight year, but the next best win was a triple-overtime thriller against Fresno State. A&M continued lose against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, and they also lost to Miami in a very down year.
The Matchup: Texas A&M has been a big soap opera for the past couple of months. Penn State isn’t a great team, but definitely hasn’t had to deal with any of the same drama. The more focused team gets the pick.
The Pick: Penn State
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PetroSun Independence Bowl
Alabama vs. Colorado
Shreveport, Louisiana
December 30
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Alabama
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-5
Best Win: Tennessee (9-4)
Worst Loss: Louisiana Monroe (6-6)
The Rundown: Alabama came into this season with the highest paid coach and grand expectations. Instead they barely finished with a .500 record and are headed to the same bowl game as they went to last year. Lowlights of the season included four consecutive losses to end the season and losing to instate rival Auburn for the sixth straight season. The Tide did pick up a good win against Tennessee, and none of the six losses were by more than touchdown. That’s a good sign for next season, but they still have to play Colorado in the bowl game.
Colorado
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Oklahoma (11-2)
Worst Loss: Iowa State (3-9)
The Rundown: Head coach Dan Hawkins and Colorado hit rock bottom last year and are crawling their way back up to the top of the Big 12 North. The Buffaloes were up and down all season, impossible to predict each week. They had great wins against Oklahoma at home and on the road against Texas Tech. They also were beat by Iowa State and Kansas State, and were blown out at home by Missouri. Keep your eye on LB Jordon Dizon, an exciting defender who should be all over the field making plays.
The Matchup: This should be a good game and could go either way. Both teams are led by elite coaches who are trying to reestablish winning traditions at programs that are in rebuilding mode. Colorado has more to prove, while Alabama was hoping for a better bowl game. In a close matchup, that might be enough to swing the vote in favor of the Buffaloes.
The Pick: Colorado
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Bowl Picks for December 20-23
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Utah vs. Navy
December 20
9:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Utah
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: New Mexico (8-4)
Worst Loss: UNLV (2-10)
The Rundown: The season started out with a very strange first four game set that included a 44-6 victory over a ranked UCLA team and a 27-0 loss against UNLV. Injuries hit the offense hard during that stretch, and it was impossible to know which team would show up week to week. The later two-thirds of the season were much more consistent. Utah ripped off a seven game win streak that gave them an outside shot at the Mountain West crown. In their final regular season game, the Utes went on the road to face a BYU team that was unbeaten in conference. Utah pulled ahead with 1:34 left in the fourth quarter, but BYU was able to answer back with a game-winning touchdown with 38 seconds left on the clock. Utah had won seven straight before pushing BYU to the limit, so this is a good team that is playing extremely well right now.
Navy
Record: 8-4
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Air Force (9-3)
Worst Loss: Delaware (FCS)
The Rundown: Navy is headed to its fifth straight bowl game, although this time it will be without head coach Paul Johnson. He accepted an offer to be the head coach at Georgia Tech after the regular season. Ken Niumatalolo, the assistant head coach and offensive line coach for Navy, was promoted to fill the vacancy. Niumatalolo plans to run the same triple-option offense that Johnson had so much success with. Navy won big games against the other two service academies and Notre Dame this season, but the Air Force game was the only win against a team with a winning record.
The Matchup: Navy will look the same as they have all season, but Johnson was a special coach. It will be very hard for the Midshipmen to continue their success, starting with this bowl game.
The Pick: Utah
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R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Memphis vs. FAU
December 21
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN2
Memphis
Record: 7-5 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-2
Best Win: Southern Miss (7-5)
Worst Loss: Mississippi (3-9)
The Rundown: According to rogerspoll.com Memphis played the weakest schedule of all the FBS teams this season. Even still, they won four games by just a field goal and another games by a single point. Worst case, this team is only 2-10 against the easiest schedule in the country. Memphis also lost two games by a combined six points, so best case they are 9-3. The Tigers are also 0-2 versus Sun Belt opponents this season, and they will be facing an FAU squad that is superior to both MTSU and Arkansas St.
FAU
Record: 7-5 (6-1)
Record against bowl teams: 0-4
Best Win: Troy (8-4)
Worst Loss: Louisiana Monroe (6-6)
The Rundown: It was not surprising that FAU had such a good year as I picked them to finish second in the conference. What was surprising is that they were able to beat a very strong Troy team in the regular season finale to claim the Sun Belt title. The Owls are led by head coach Howard Schnellenberger, arguably the best coach in the conference, or at least the only one that has won a National Championship. FAU is in its seventh year of playing football and just its third year at the FBS level, making it the youngest program to ever be invited to a bowl game.
The Matchup: Neither one of these teams had an impressive season, but both did enough to get to the postseason. This game is one of the most difficult bowl matchups to predict. It’s hard to pick a team that hasn’t beaten a Sun Belt team in two chances this season, but it’s just as hard to pick a team in its first bowl game and might suffer from the “just happy to be there” syndrome. The pick goes to the better head coach.
The Pick: FAU
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Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati
Birmingham, Alabama
December 22
1:00 pm Eastern
ESPN2
Southern Miss
Record: 7-5 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 1-4
Best Win: East Carolina (7-5)
Worst Loss: Rice (3-9)
The Rundown: Southern Miss was expected to contend for the C-USA title in the preseason, but ended up fourth in the East standings with only one win over a team with a winning record. Somehow the Eagles won all of their road conference games, but only won a single conference home game. Head coach Jeff Bower resigned at the end of the season, although it seems he was being pushed out by the athletic director. Bower will still coach the Golden Eagles in the bowl game. Oklahoma State’s offensive coordinator Larry Fedora was hired to replace Bower.
Cincinnati
Record: 9-3 (4-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Pittsburgh (5-7)
The Rundown: Cincinnati had a huge first year under new head coach Brian Kelly. The Bearcats had good wins over South Florida (9-3), Connecticut (9-3), Oregon St (8-4), and Rutgers (7-5). The three losses were all by a touchdown or less. Big East champion West Virginia only beat them by five points. This is a very good Cincinnati squad that probably thinks it should be playing in bigger bowl game, but I expect to do more than just go through the motions.
The Matchup: The most telling stat could be the teams’ opposite records against bowl teams. Cincinnati hasn’t had any trouble beating good teams while Southern Miss obviously has. Cincinnati is simply the better team here, so I don’t think they will have any trouble handling a Southern Miss team in the middle of a coaching transition.
The Pick: Cincinnati
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New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. New Mexico
Albuquerque, New Mexico
December 22
4:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
Nevada
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 0-3
Best Win: Louisiana Tech (5-7)
Worst Loss: San Jose St (5-7)
The Rundown: Nevada fielded a young and inexperienced team this season, but they did just enough to make it a bowl game. Other than being blown out by Nebraska in the opener, the Wolf Pack never lost by more than eight points. Boise St needed four overtime periods and Hawaii needed a last second field goal to get wins over Nevada. The Wolf Pack never did get a signature win this season, but they get another chance in the bowl game.
New Mexico
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Air Force (9-3)
Worst Loss: UTEP (4-8)
The Rundown: New Mexico has put together another successful but largely unnoticed season as has been typical in the ten-year Rocky Long era. New Mexico played four teams with winning records, but only beat one of them. New Mexico won five of their six home games, losing only to a 10-2 BYU team. That’s a good sign since the bowl game is essentially a home game for them. Starting RB Rodney Ferguson has been declared academically ineligible for the bowl game, a big blow since has had over 1000 yards rushing in the past two seasons.
The Matchup: As long as the Lobos can overcome the loss of their star running back, the home team should have the advantage. If Nevada can pull out a win here, it could be a stepping stone for a big 2008 season.
The Pick: New Mexico
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Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
UCLA vs. BYU
December 22
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
UCLA
Record: 6-6 (5-4)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: BYU (10-2)
Worst Loss: Notre Dame (3-9)
The Rundown: In the preseason, UCLA looked primed for a big season and a shot at the Pac-10 title. Instead they became the definition of inconsistency, and it became impossible to know which team would show up each week. They were able to beat a very good Oregon St (8-4) team on the road 40-14, but then lost road games to Washington St (5-7) and Arizona (5-7). They were able to beat a 10-2 BYU team at home, but then lost to 3-9 Notre Dame. Making it to a bowl game was not enough to keep head coach Karl Dorrell from getting fired after the regular season. Dorrell will not stay to coach to bowl game, instead the team will be led by defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker. As of this posting, the head coaching position has not been filled.
BYU
Record: 10-2 (8-0)
Record against bowl teams: 4-2
Best Win: Air Force (9-3)
Worst Loss: UCLA (6-6)
The Rundown: BYU had a spectacular year, being one of only two teams to finish undefeated in conference play. BYU did lose two OOC games, but both were on the road to bowl teams. This team was only 18 points away from an undefeated season. The Cougars also finished with a nine-game winning streak, and will look to extend that in the bowl game.
The Matchup: These two teams met up in the second week of the regular season, and UCLA earned a 27-17 victory. Since then the two teams have been going in opposite directions. UCLA was up and down for the rest of the year, while BYU lost the next game and then won out. BYU should win this game easily.
The Pick: BYU
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Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
East Carolina vs. Boise St
December 23
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
East Carolina
Record: 7-5 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: UCF (10-3)
Worst Loss: Marshall (3-9)
The Rundown: East Carolina is going to their second straight bowl game, after just missing a shot at playing in the C-USA championship game. They would have finished ahead of UCF in the East if either the Southern Miss or Marshall game had gone the other way. East Carolina finished the season with a winning record, but only outscored their opponents by a total of five points over a 12-game season. The Pirates won only half of their games against bowl teams, but two of those losses (Virginia Tech, West Virginia) were against teams that made it into BCS bowls.
Boise St
Record: 10-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 3-1
Best Win: Fresno St (8-4)
Worst Loss: Washington (4-9)
The Rundown: Boise St followed up last season’s unbeaten campaign with another season with double-digit wins. Their only loss in conference was to an undefeated Hawaii team. Boise St did beat three bowl teams this season, although the Nevada game took four overtimes to decide. While Hawaii’s offense deservedly gets a ton of attention, the Broncos did a ton of scoring too. They averaged over 42 points per game and more than doubled their opponents scoring output.
The Matchup: This game will face two young and successful head coaches that have had their names flying about other head coaching vacancies. It seems certain that this will be a well-coached and high-scoring affair. Another thing that seems certain is that Boise St will be on top when the smoke clears.
The Pick: Boise St
Utah vs. Navy
December 20
9:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Utah
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: New Mexico (8-4)
Worst Loss: UNLV (2-10)
The Rundown: The season started out with a very strange first four game set that included a 44-6 victory over a ranked UCLA team and a 27-0 loss against UNLV. Injuries hit the offense hard during that stretch, and it was impossible to know which team would show up week to week. The later two-thirds of the season were much more consistent. Utah ripped off a seven game win streak that gave them an outside shot at the Mountain West crown. In their final regular season game, the Utes went on the road to face a BYU team that was unbeaten in conference. Utah pulled ahead with 1:34 left in the fourth quarter, but BYU was able to answer back with a game-winning touchdown with 38 seconds left on the clock. Utah had won seven straight before pushing BYU to the limit, so this is a good team that is playing extremely well right now.
Navy
Record: 8-4
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Air Force (9-3)
Worst Loss: Delaware (FCS)
The Rundown: Navy is headed to its fifth straight bowl game, although this time it will be without head coach Paul Johnson. He accepted an offer to be the head coach at Georgia Tech after the regular season. Ken Niumatalolo, the assistant head coach and offensive line coach for Navy, was promoted to fill the vacancy. Niumatalolo plans to run the same triple-option offense that Johnson had so much success with. Navy won big games against the other two service academies and Notre Dame this season, but the Air Force game was the only win against a team with a winning record.
The Matchup: Navy will look the same as they have all season, but Johnson was a special coach. It will be very hard for the Midshipmen to continue their success, starting with this bowl game.
The Pick: Utah
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R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Memphis vs. FAU
December 21
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN2
Memphis
Record: 7-5 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-2
Best Win: Southern Miss (7-5)
Worst Loss: Mississippi (3-9)
The Rundown: According to rogerspoll.com Memphis played the weakest schedule of all the FBS teams this season. Even still, they won four games by just a field goal and another games by a single point. Worst case, this team is only 2-10 against the easiest schedule in the country. Memphis also lost two games by a combined six points, so best case they are 9-3. The Tigers are also 0-2 versus Sun Belt opponents this season, and they will be facing an FAU squad that is superior to both MTSU and Arkansas St.
FAU
Record: 7-5 (6-1)
Record against bowl teams: 0-4
Best Win: Troy (8-4)
Worst Loss: Louisiana Monroe (6-6)
The Rundown: It was not surprising that FAU had such a good year as I picked them to finish second in the conference. What was surprising is that they were able to beat a very strong Troy team in the regular season finale to claim the Sun Belt title. The Owls are led by head coach Howard Schnellenberger, arguably the best coach in the conference, or at least the only one that has won a National Championship. FAU is in its seventh year of playing football and just its third year at the FBS level, making it the youngest program to ever be invited to a bowl game.
The Matchup: Neither one of these teams had an impressive season, but both did enough to get to the postseason. This game is one of the most difficult bowl matchups to predict. It’s hard to pick a team that hasn’t beaten a Sun Belt team in two chances this season, but it’s just as hard to pick a team in its first bowl game and might suffer from the “just happy to be there” syndrome. The pick goes to the better head coach.
The Pick: FAU
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Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati
Birmingham, Alabama
December 22
1:00 pm Eastern
ESPN2
Southern Miss
Record: 7-5 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 1-4
Best Win: East Carolina (7-5)
Worst Loss: Rice (3-9)
The Rundown: Southern Miss was expected to contend for the C-USA title in the preseason, but ended up fourth in the East standings with only one win over a team with a winning record. Somehow the Eagles won all of their road conference games, but only won a single conference home game. Head coach Jeff Bower resigned at the end of the season, although it seems he was being pushed out by the athletic director. Bower will still coach the Golden Eagles in the bowl game. Oklahoma State’s offensive coordinator Larry Fedora was hired to replace Bower.
Cincinnati
Record: 9-3 (4-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Pittsburgh (5-7)
The Rundown: Cincinnati had a huge first year under new head coach Brian Kelly. The Bearcats had good wins over South Florida (9-3), Connecticut (9-3), Oregon St (8-4), and Rutgers (7-5). The three losses were all by a touchdown or less. Big East champion West Virginia only beat them by five points. This is a very good Cincinnati squad that probably thinks it should be playing in bigger bowl game, but I expect to do more than just go through the motions.
The Matchup: The most telling stat could be the teams’ opposite records against bowl teams. Cincinnati hasn’t had any trouble beating good teams while Southern Miss obviously has. Cincinnati is simply the better team here, so I don’t think they will have any trouble handling a Southern Miss team in the middle of a coaching transition.
The Pick: Cincinnati
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New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. New Mexico
Albuquerque, New Mexico
December 22
4:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
Nevada
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 0-3
Best Win: Louisiana Tech (5-7)
Worst Loss: San Jose St (5-7)
The Rundown: Nevada fielded a young and inexperienced team this season, but they did just enough to make it a bowl game. Other than being blown out by Nebraska in the opener, the Wolf Pack never lost by more than eight points. Boise St needed four overtime periods and Hawaii needed a last second field goal to get wins over Nevada. The Wolf Pack never did get a signature win this season, but they get another chance in the bowl game.
New Mexico
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Air Force (9-3)
Worst Loss: UTEP (4-8)
The Rundown: New Mexico has put together another successful but largely unnoticed season as has been typical in the ten-year Rocky Long era. New Mexico played four teams with winning records, but only beat one of them. New Mexico won five of their six home games, losing only to a 10-2 BYU team. That’s a good sign since the bowl game is essentially a home game for them. Starting RB Rodney Ferguson has been declared academically ineligible for the bowl game, a big blow since has had over 1000 yards rushing in the past two seasons.
The Matchup: As long as the Lobos can overcome the loss of their star running back, the home team should have the advantage. If Nevada can pull out a win here, it could be a stepping stone for a big 2008 season.
The Pick: New Mexico
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Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
UCLA vs. BYU
December 22
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
UCLA
Record: 6-6 (5-4)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: BYU (10-2)
Worst Loss: Notre Dame (3-9)
The Rundown: In the preseason, UCLA looked primed for a big season and a shot at the Pac-10 title. Instead they became the definition of inconsistency, and it became impossible to know which team would show up each week. They were able to beat a very good Oregon St (8-4) team on the road 40-14, but then lost road games to Washington St (5-7) and Arizona (5-7). They were able to beat a 10-2 BYU team at home, but then lost to 3-9 Notre Dame. Making it to a bowl game was not enough to keep head coach Karl Dorrell from getting fired after the regular season. Dorrell will not stay to coach to bowl game, instead the team will be led by defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker. As of this posting, the head coaching position has not been filled.
BYU
Record: 10-2 (8-0)
Record against bowl teams: 4-2
Best Win: Air Force (9-3)
Worst Loss: UCLA (6-6)
The Rundown: BYU had a spectacular year, being one of only two teams to finish undefeated in conference play. BYU did lose two OOC games, but both were on the road to bowl teams. This team was only 18 points away from an undefeated season. The Cougars also finished with a nine-game winning streak, and will look to extend that in the bowl game.
The Matchup: These two teams met up in the second week of the regular season, and UCLA earned a 27-17 victory. Since then the two teams have been going in opposite directions. UCLA was up and down for the rest of the year, while BYU lost the next game and then won out. BYU should win this game easily.
The Pick: BYU
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Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
East Carolina vs. Boise St
December 23
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
East Carolina
Record: 7-5 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: UCF (10-3)
Worst Loss: Marshall (3-9)
The Rundown: East Carolina is going to their second straight bowl game, after just missing a shot at playing in the C-USA championship game. They would have finished ahead of UCF in the East if either the Southern Miss or Marshall game had gone the other way. East Carolina finished the season with a winning record, but only outscored their opponents by a total of five points over a 12-game season. The Pirates won only half of their games against bowl teams, but two of those losses (Virginia Tech, West Virginia) were against teams that made it into BCS bowls.
Boise St
Record: 10-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 3-1
Best Win: Fresno St (8-4)
Worst Loss: Washington (4-9)
The Rundown: Boise St followed up last season’s unbeaten campaign with another season with double-digit wins. Their only loss in conference was to an undefeated Hawaii team. Boise St did beat three bowl teams this season, although the Nevada game took four overtimes to decide. While Hawaii’s offense deservedly gets a ton of attention, the Broncos did a ton of scoring too. They averaged over 42 points per game and more than doubled their opponents scoring output.
The Matchup: This game will face two young and successful head coaches that have had their names flying about other head coaching vacancies. It seems certain that this will be a well-coached and high-scoring affair. Another thing that seems certain is that Boise St will be on top when the smoke clears.
The Pick: Boise St
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Week 15 Top 25
1 - Hawaii (4)
2 - Oklahoma (5)
3 - LSU (6)
4 - Ohio St (3)
5 - Virginia Tech (8)
6 - Missouri (1)
7 - West Virginia (2)
8 - Georgia (9)
9 - USC (10)
10 - Kansas (7)
11 - South Florida (12)
12 - Boston College (11)
13 - Illinois (16)
14 - Clemson (13)
15 - Boise St (14)
16 - Arizona St (17)
17 - BYU (18)
18 - Florida (19)
19 - Texas (20)
20 - Cincinnati (22)
21 - Oregon (15)
22 - Tennessee (21)
23 - Virginia (23)
24 - Connecticut (24)
25 - Wisconsin (25)
Added - none
Dropped - none
Notes:
* Illinois jumped up three spots despite not playing a game since before Thanksgiving. I looked closer at their resume and decided I had been underrating them. Kansas also dropped three spots, because although they won 11 games, only two came against teams that finished with winning records (Central Michigan, Texas A&M).
* Missouri dropped from first place to number six, which may seem like a lot considering that they lost to my #2 team at a neutral site. Truthfully, I have the top six teams rated extremely close, so that five-spot fall is nearly as bad as it looks. West Virginia on the other hand, deserves to fall five spots after losing at home to Pittsburgh with their National Championship hopes on the line.
2 - Oklahoma (5)
3 - LSU (6)
4 - Ohio St (3)
5 - Virginia Tech (8)
6 - Missouri (1)
7 - West Virginia (2)
8 - Georgia (9)
9 - USC (10)
10 - Kansas (7)
11 - South Florida (12)
12 - Boston College (11)
13 - Illinois (16)
14 - Clemson (13)
15 - Boise St (14)
16 - Arizona St (17)
17 - BYU (18)
18 - Florida (19)
19 - Texas (20)
20 - Cincinnati (22)
21 - Oregon (15)
22 - Tennessee (21)
23 - Virginia (23)
24 - Connecticut (24)
25 - Wisconsin (25)
Added - none
Dropped - none
Notes:
* Illinois jumped up three spots despite not playing a game since before Thanksgiving. I looked closer at their resume and decided I had been underrating them. Kansas also dropped three spots, because although they won 11 games, only two came against teams that finished with winning records (Central Michigan, Texas A&M).
* Missouri dropped from first place to number six, which may seem like a lot considering that they lost to my #2 team at a neutral site. Truthfully, I have the top six teams rated extremely close, so that five-spot fall is nearly as bad as it looks. West Virginia on the other hand, deserves to fall five spots after losing at home to Pittsburgh with their National Championship hopes on the line.
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