Rocket City Report: 2011 C-USA Preview

The Favorite (East): UCF hosted and won the C-USA Championship Game, as well as picking up its first bowl win in 2010. UCF's final record was 11-3, and those three losses were by a combined 21 points. I'm picking UCF to repeat despite returning only ten starters. UCF had more rushing yards than passing yards, and had three players with double digit rushing touchdowns last year. All three of them return and the top three receivers are gone, so except the Knights to focus on the ground game again in 2011.

The Favorite (West): Case Keenum was granted a sixth year of eligibility, so Houston is expected to climb back to the top of the West standings. Keenum has over 13000 passing yards already in his collegiate career, and he has a great opportunity to pass Hawaii's Timmy Chang as the all-time passer in NCAA history. Houston struggled badly after Keenum was injured last year and finished with only half as many wins as compared to 2009. Houston's biggest issue is the defense, which has given up over 30 points per game in each season under head coach Kevin Sumlin. If Keenum is healthy, the Cougars will be able to outscore most teams and could be looking at a big season.

The Challenger (East): Southern Miss has had winning records and postseason appearances every year under Larry Fedora, but the Golden Eagles haven't won the East in his tenure yet. Southern Miss hosts UCF and has an easier draw from the West. The Golden Eagles will definitely contend this season. Also senior quarterback Austin Davis is less than 300 yards from becoming the program's all-time leading passer over some guy named Brett Favre.

The Challenger (West): SMU might have been my pick for the favorite in the West if the schedule wasn't so killer. The Mustangs have conference road games against Southern Miss, Tulsa and Houston. Plus they also draw UCF from the East. SMU does return 18 starters, all but the top receiver from last year. Quarterback Kyle Padron is in his third season running June Jones' run-and-shoot system and should be able to cut down on his turnovers (14 interceptions last year.)

The Sleeper: Tulsa may be getting overlooked because of the head coaching change. The Golden Hurricane return 18 starters, including ten from the offense that averaged over 41 points per game last year. The only two conference losses from last year were on the road by a combined five points. They host fellow West contenders Houston and SMU. The non-conference schedule is really difficult with games against Oklahoma and Boise State on the road and Oklahoma State at home.

The Letdown: UTEP led a senior-laden offense and an incredibly weak schedule to the first bowl appearance since 2005. The Miners were promptly blasted by fellow 6-6 BYU in the New Mexico Bowl. The offense only returns two starters and will have to replace the Miner all-time leading passer as well as the entire offensive line. The Miners are likely to take a big step back and are very unlikely to return to the postseason.

Conference Player of the Year: Several quarterbacks in the conference will put up big numbers. With questions lingering about Keenum's health, I'll give credit to East Carolina's Dominique Davis. He threw for almost 4000 yards and 37 touchdowns plus running for another nine scores last season.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview I was obviously wrong about Houston, but that can happen when you lose your best player early in the season. I also called East Carolina my Letdown team, but the Pirates still made it to their fifth straight bowl game.

Non-conference Games to Watch
* UCLA at Houston, September 3 - UCLA ended Case Keenum's season last year. He and the rest of the Cougars will be out for revenge in the opener.
* Boston College at UCF, September 10 - UCF gets a nice early season test hosting a solid ACC team.
* Oklahoma State at Tulsa, September 17 - Two in-state rivals with high powered offenses are matched up in this game.
* North Carolina at East Carolina, October 1 - UNC is in turmoil after firing its head coach a month before the season. The Pirates could get the upset here at the rocking Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
* UCF at BYU, September 23 - A good matchup on a Friday night ESPN game.

Projected Standings:
East: