2010 Heisman Trophy Candidates

Vegas released the early odds for the 2010 Heisman Trophy winner that you can see here on the Orlando Sentinal's website.

As it says on the link, eight of the last ten Heisman winners have been quarterbacks and the other two were running backs. Also, eight of the last ten winners played in the national championship game and Carson Palmer played in the Orange Bowl. The only winner of the past decade who didn't play in a BCS Bowl or play on a team with two losses or fewer was Tim Tebow. His 55 touchdown season helped the voters forget that Florida was only headed to the Capital One Bowl. So the Heisman award will almost certainly go to a player on a top ten team unless that player is putting up ridiculous stats.


Noticably Absent from the List
Ryan Williams
RB Virginia Tech Sophomore
Ryan Williams was overlooked last season despite over 1600 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns. Virginia Tech has a loaded backfield with Darren Evans returning from a medical redshirt season (torn ACL) and Tyrod Taylor at QB. Virginia Tech should have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation, but that will also take away from Williams's Heisman chances. Regardless, I would still have him in my top ten and I'm amazed he wasn't in the list.

John Brantley
QB Florida Junior
Tim Tebow won the award in his first season as a starter at Florida, and John Brantley could too. I would have him pretty high on my list, just because of Florida's expected success. In limited playing time last year, he completed 75% of his passes and threw 7 touchdowns versus zero interceptions.


The Candidates
Mark Ingram +380
RB Alabama Junior
I'm very doubtful that 2009 Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram can repeat since he will be splitting carries with Trent Richardson more this year. More importantly, if Tim Tebow can't win two Heismans then I'm not picking anyone else to accomplish that again.

Terrelle Pryor +550
QB Ohio State Junior
Terrelle Pryor started putting it all together last season culminating with a great Rose Bowl performance. Ohio State has the perfect schedule for an undefeated season with eight home games and two road games against teams that might finish with losing records. Pryor should be able to increase his stats to over 3000 combined yards and 30 total TDs, but 12 regular season wins is the most important number.

Jake Locker +800
QB Washington Senior
Washington should be much improved, but I don't think this is a Rose Bowl team. Jake Locker's stats should improve, but they won't match Tim Tebow's epic 2007 season, and that's the only way to win a Heisman if you aren't on a Top Ten team. I like his chances to put up 3500+ total yards and 35+ total TDs, but Washington's nine-win ceiling will the difference between finalist and winner.

Ryan Mallett +1200
QB Arkansas Junior
The SEC's top offense returns 10 starters on offense. Ryan Mallett was a true gunslinger last year, with completion percentages under 36% in two games and over 85% in two other games. His biggest obstacles are consistently performing well and team success playing in the stacked SEC West.

Noel Devine +1400
RB West Virginia Senior
Pat White never got the Heisman attention he deserved, so Noel Devine is unlikely to fare better. Every West Virginia loss hurts his chances, but a win over LSU at Death Valley would be huge. He will need to at least outperform Pitt's Dion Lewis, who had better stats last year.

Jacory Harris +1400
QB Miami Junior
Jacory Harris will have to stay healthy, play well in big games (and Miami has a ton of them), and cut down on his 17 interceptions from last year. That's a lot to ask to improve from one season to the next. The winner of the Ohio State-Miami game in Week 2 may go a long way in determining the Heisman winner.

Dion Lewis +1500
RB Pittsburgh Sophomore
Dion Lewis had amazing numbers (1799 yds, 17 TDs) as a true freshman, but he may not match them again for the rest of his career. He has chances for big non-conferences games against Utah, Miami and Notre Dame that should help offset the anti-Big East bias. Pitt will have to win almost every game for Lewis to have a chance.

Case Keenum +1500
QB Houston Senior
Nobody from a current non-AQ school has won the award since 1990. Worth noting that Houston's Andre Ware won in 1989. Case Keenum should break Timmy Chang's career passing yard record, a record once thought to be unbreakable. He beat three AQ teams last season, and he has an opportunity to beat three more this season. With the passing yardage record and double-digit wins, I think he gets the trip to New York, but I don't he can win it.

John Clay +1500
RB Wisconsin Junior
John Clay had big numbers (1517 yds, 18 TDs) last year, but unfortunately his season went largely unnoticed. Wisconsin does have an easy schedule since they miss Penn State and the toughest non-conference game is Arizona State at home. Also Wisconsin returns all five starters on the offensive line. The stats shoud be there again, but Wisconsin will have to run the table for Clay to get to New York.

Evan Royster +1500
RB Penn State Senior
Evan Royster had relatively pedestrian numbers last season, especially when compared to conference mate John Clay. He needs to greatly improve on them, and beating Alabama on the road would get him in the discussion.

Kellen Moore +1700
QB Boise State Junior
Kellen Moore has the best chance at a non-AQ player winning the award. Boise State has excellent opportunities to go to the BCS Championship Game and have a Heisman winner this year. Both will be erased if they lose to Virginia Tech on Labor Day. Moore had an astounding 39 TD to 3 INT ratio last year.

Landry Jones +1800
QB Oklahoma Sophomore
Landry Jones was up and down last season when he was thrown to the wolves filling in for an injured Sam Bradford. A year of starting experience should do wonders for his consistency. If Oklahoma can return to contending for a national championship, then Jones should be a finalist.

Andrew Luck +1800
QB Stanford Sophomore
Andrew Luck is a very good quarterback learning from a very good head coach. Like many others on the list, his team needs be successful. Toby Gerhart took most of the touchdowns (28) last season, Luck needs them this season to get into the running.

This is where the list turns into long shots that don't have a chance at winning. Several are underclassmen that will be candidates in 2011 and 2012.

DeMarco Murray +1800
RB Oklahoma Senior
DeMarco Murray is likely to be overshadowed by his quarterback. Plus his 4.1 yards per carry wasn't impressive last season.

Christian Ponder +1800
QB Florida State Senior
Christian Ponder needs to stay healthy for the entire season and at least double his mediocre 14 touchdowns from last year. The schedule is brutal, but it also provides multiple opportunities to be noticed. If FSU can navigate that schedule without too many slip-ups, they should make it to the ACC Championship Game. A win there and Ponder will be a finalist.

Damien Berry +2200
RB Miami Senior
Damien Berry is in a catch-22 situation. If QB Jacory Harris stays healthy, then he'll overshadow Berry. If Harris goes down and Berry becomes the man, then Miami probably won't be as successful.

Matt Barkley +2200
QB USC Sophomore
Was Matt Barkley that impressive as a freshman? Check back when he's an upperclassman.

Jacquizz Rodgers +2500
RB Oregon State Junior
Jacquizz Rodger's 21 rushing touchdowns are hard to ignore. I had a hard time imagining someone from Oregon State winning the Heisman, but then I found out fellow Beaver Terry Baker won it back in 1962. I guess it could happen again with games against the two best non-AQ teams (TCU, Boise St) and a run to the Rose Bowl.

Garrett Gilbert +3000
QB Texas Sophomore
Garrett Gilbert showed potential during the BCS Championship Game, but this will be the first full season for him and he's likely to take his lumps. Like Matt Barkley of USC, he's likely to become more of a contender as a junior and senior.

LaMichael James +3300
RB Oregon Sophomore
LaMichael James had a great freshman campaign that went largely unnoticed. If Oregon has a big season, which is what I expect, he should become a household name. That gives him two more years to increase his popularity enough to win the award.

Tate Forcier +3500
QB Michigan Sophomore
Tate Forcier is the first candidate from a team coming off a losing season. When you're the fifth sophomore quarterback mentioned, you really don't have any chance to win. The 13-10 touchdown to interception ratio isn't going to cut it.

Josh Nesbitt +6000
QB Georgia Tech Senior
Josh Nesbitt split stats with Jonathan Dwyer last year, but still had good numbers. He'll need all of the stats this year and will need to run the table against a loaded ACC.

Jerrod Johnson +6000
QB Texas A&M Senior
Did you know that Jerrod Johnson accounted for over 4000 yards and 38 touchdowns last year? The wins weren't there and probably won't be there this year either. There are plenty of big games against Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas. Unfortunately those are likely to be remembered as A&M losses instead of showcases of his talent.

Blaine Gabbert +6600
QB Missouri Junior
Blaine Gabbert had really good numbers last year, but Missouri was an afterthought. Winning the Big XII is probably necessary.

Jordan Todman +6600
RB Connecticut Junior
I wonder how many people even know who Jordan Todman is. He had 1188 yards and 14 TDs despite splitting carries with another 1000 yard rusher who also had 14 TDs. If he can handle the increase in workload, he may have the best numbers of any running back. But because he plays for Connecticut, the Doak Walker Award is probably his ceiling.

Robert Griffin +6600
QB Baylor Sophomore
The future must be bright with six sophomore quarterbacks on the list. Robert Griffin missed almost all of last season with a torn ACL. He's an exciting player to watch, but I think his goal right now should be leading Baylor to a bowl game.


My Predictions for New York
Terrelle Pryor: Ladies and gentlemen, your 2010 Heisman Trophy winner! He won't have the best stats overall, but Ohio State's success will push him over the top.
Mark Ingram: Unless his numbers really fall off, he'll make it back to New York. Again, I can't imagine him repeating though.
Case Keenum: The numbers can't be ignored, no matter how many times you hear the phrase "system quaterback."
Jake Locker: Being a Top 5 NFL Draft pick isn't a bad consolation prize for a Heisman finalist.
Ryan Mallett: If Arkansas can get to the SEC Championship Game, then Ryan Mallett will win the Heisman.

My Favorite Long Shot
Kellen Moore: All he has to do is beat Virginia Tech and not screw up the rest of the season. Sounds easy enough.

Coaches on the Hot Seat

With 50 days until the 2010 season kicks off, it's time to start updating my blog. I'll start with my thoughts of programs that are likely to change head coaches after the season. To give you an idea of how much turnover exists in the head coaching ranks, here are some stats. Since 2000, approximately one out of six programs per year change coaches. There were 20 changes last season, exactly one-sixth. Since 2000, only eight programs have kept the same man at the helm. FAU has never changed head coaches, but the program didn't begin until 2001. On the other side of the spectrum, 16 programs are on their fourth head coach. Nobody has gone through five head coaches since 2000 yet.

The Hottest Seats
* Ron Zook at Illinois - Illinois has had four losing seasons and a Rose Bowl appearance. What a strange track record. Despite bringing in highly rated recruiting classes, Zook has had trouble with player development. He brought in a new OC and a new DC in the offseason, possibly to buy himself an extra year. He probably needs a winning season to keep his job. With Missouri, Ohio State and Penn State in the first five games, it will probably be an upward battle.
* Ralph Friedgen at Maryland - I'm surprised that Friedgen didn't get dismissed last year after a two win season. Friedgen has a career record at Maryland of 20 games over .500, but has had losing seasons in four of the last six. The three straight double digit win seasons that kicked off his career keep fading further into the past. Another losing season and he's got to be gone.
* Rich Rodriguez at Michigan - After 33 consecutive bowl appearances, Rodriguez has Michigan on the cusp of missing the postseason for three straight years. The NCAA is also investigating Michigan for violations for failing to comply with practice time rules. Rodriguez may have to win at least eight games to survive. I don't think the new Michigan athletic director or the fanbase will be content with a Little Caesars Pizza Bowl bid.
* Paul Wulff at Washington State - The Cougars haven't even been competitive in the Pac-10 under Wulff. I usually believe in giving coaches ample time to build their program, but the numbers have been so bad that I don't know if there is a reason to think Wulff's record will get better with time. Last season Washington State was outscored by almost four touchdowns per game and their opponents had more than twice as many yards. The season culminated with a 30-0 by rival Washington in the most lopsided Apple Cup game since 2000.

Getting Warmer?
* Dan Hawkins at Colorado - One bowl appearance and zero winning seasons in four years isn't what Colorado expected when they hired Dan Hawkins away from a very successful Boise State program. For whatever reason, he hasn’t been able to translate his success from one program to the other. Hawkins could be saved by Colorado's financial issues. Colorado may not be able to pay his buyout as they try to find the money to pay for the Big XII exit fee.
* Tim Brewster at Minnesota - It may be a little early to be talking about Brewster since he has been bowling twice in his three years. Still Minnesota was expecting more when they fired Glen Mason for similar mediocre records. With the opening of the beautiful new on-campus TCF Bank Stadium, Minnesota wants more than an Insight Bowl team calling it home. Brewster could use a good season, although the prognosticators have them slotted near the bottom of the Big Ten.
* Tom O'Brien at NC State - O'Brien hasn't been able to duplicate his success at Boston College at NC State. Four games under .500 after three seasons is disappointing after leading BC to between 7 and 9 wins per season for eight consecutive years. Barring a disastrous season, O'Brien will probably survive another year. Regardless he could use a big season to cool down his seat.
* Mike Locksley at New Mexico - Locksley's first season was nothing short of a disaster. He took a team that had been bowling in five of the past seven seasons, and he led them to a one win season. He lost to in-state rival New Mexico State for the first time since 2002. He also had off the field issues involving a suspension for striking an assistant and had an age and sexual discrimination lawsuit filed against him. He'll probably be given more time, especially since he is known as a great recruiter. It's rare for a coach to be fired after just two seasons, but I wouldn't be surprised if the New Mexico athletic director has him on a short leash.
* Todd Dodge at North Texas - Dodge's tenure has been marked with tons of turnovers, a porous defense, and few wins. The offense has shown flashes of potential, but can't seem to hang onto the ball. The defense gave up 12 fewer points per game last season, but they were still outscored by nine points per game. How much time will Dodge get at North Texas to implement his system that was so successful at Southlake Carroll High School?
* Bob Toledo at Tulane - Toledo has only won 25% of his games at Tulane, but he had the unenviable job of rebuilding the Tulane program after Hurricane Katrina. Just a few years ago, Tulane was considering dropping Division I athletics. I don't know if another coach that Tulane realistically could have hired would have done much better than Toledo. He deserves more time, but the FBS head coaching business isn't always fair.
* Neil Callaway at UAB - Callaway has done a great job rebuilding the Blazers from scratch. Now it's time to take it to the next level, specifically the postseason. UAB was close last year, but now they have to replace the dynamic athlete Joe Webb who accounted for over 3700 yards of offense last year. UAB is playing in a division with 3 first year head coaches, so Callaway needs to take advantage and produce a winning season.
* George O'Leary at UCF - O'Leary hasn't had back to back winning seasons at UCF. If he can't break that streak, he may be out the door. It's no secret that UCF is positioning itself for a Big East invite. With only one win over a ranked team, two wins over BCS teams and zero bowl wins in the program's history, UCF has not yet proven that they can compete in a BCS conference. If the administration doesn’t think O'Leary is the right man for that job, they are likely to push him out with a disappointing season.

Retirement Watch
* Joe Paterno at Penn State - People have been expecting JoePa to retire every year for as long as I can remember. He keeps coaching and I see no reason for him to quit since he is still successful and in good health. At 83 years old, he's gets a spot on this list.
* Dennis Erickson at Arizona State - Erickson is 63 years old and headed into his 22nd year as a head coach. He's missed the postseason last two years and may be getting ready to hang it up if he endures another losing season.
* Mike Price at UTEP - Price is a year older than Dennis Erickson and has been coaching for a long time. There were rumors of his retirement after last season, as well as rumors of his dismissal. I think that either he has a good season and goes out on top, or he has another underachieving season and the administration strongly suggests that he retires. Regardless I think this is his last season.


Notes
* I predict these jobs will definitely be open after this season: Maryland, Illinois, Washington State, and UTEP.
* There are no SEC and no Big East coaches on the list. I expect all of them to be on the same sideline in 2011, although Les Miles to Michigan is a long shot.
* The only Big XII coach on the hot seat is likely to survive regardless of performance because of financial issues.
* With three AQ conferences not making any changes, we may see less of a trickledown effect and therefore fewer job openings next offseason.
* The main reason I don't have any MAC coaches on the hot seat is that eight of the teams have first or second year head coaches. Plus Jerry Kill at Northern Illinois is in his third year. Al Golden at Temple may leave because someone else hires him. He would definitely be a candidate for the Maryland job, but that’s a topic for a different blog post.