Friday, August 19, 2011

2011 Pac-12 Preview




State of the Pac-12: The Pac-10 added Utah and Colorado in the offseason to expand to twelve teams. The conference is split into North and South divisions with the championship game to be played at the home stadium of the division winner with the best overall conference record. Teams will play a nine-game conference schedule. No future expansion is expected at this time.

The Favorite (North): Oregon is coming off a 12-win season and a close loss to Auburn in the BCS National Championship Game. The Ducks beat every team in the Pac-12 by at least 11 points except for California. They should be strong again with the return of running back LaMichael James, who finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting. Oregon is my pick to host the first Pac-12 Championship Game in Autzen Stadium and could make a return appearance to the national title game.

The Favorite (South): The South is crowded with no clear favorite. I'm calling Arizona as the favorite to win the division. The schedule is killer at the beginning with games against four of the top twenty teams by October 1. If the Wildcats weather can that storm, they could be able to pile up the wins in the second half of the season.

The Challenger (North): Even though Jack Locker is gone, I think Washington could contend this season. I think head coach Steve Sarkisian is building a really good team here. Stanford would get the nod here, but I think the loss of Jim Harbaugh will put them a step below the Huskies.

The Challenger (South): Arizona State is being predicted by many to be a sleeper in the Pac-12. I don't think that they will be that much improved. But in the weaker South division, minor improvement might be enough to make them a contender.

The Sleeper: Because of the probation, I think USC is flying under the radar. Even though USC can't participate in the Pac-12 Championship or a bowl game, I think they'll have the best record in the South.

The Letdown: I don't think UCLA will take a step forward in Rick Neuheisel's fourth season. They have too many questions and not enough answers. I think they will continue to struggle with new offensive and defensive coordinators.

Conference Player of the Year: LaMichael James is a legit Heisman Trophy contender, although I should mention Andrew Luck here, the number one overall pick in next year's NFL draft.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I thought Stanford would have a similar record as in 2009. Instead the Cardinal almost ran the table, losing only once to Oregon.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Oregon vs LSU at Arlington, September 3 - As I said in the SEC Preview, this is the best non-conference game of the season. The winner of this game will be the early leader in the national title race.
* Missouri at Arizona State, September 10 - If the Sun Devils want to have a big season, then they need to win the big non-conference games at home.
* Arizona at Oklahoma State, September 8 - Participants of last year's Alamo Bowl meet in an early season matchup. Hopefully this game won't be as lopsided as last year's 36-10 affair.
* Washington at Nebraska, September 17 - These two teams split games last season. Now's the rubber match.
* Texas at UCLA, September 17 - UCLA beating Texas in Austin was one of the big surprises of last season.


Projected Standings:
North:

Oregon | 11-1 | 8-1







Washington | 7-5 | 5-4







Stanford | 8-4 | 5-4







Cal | 7-5 | 4-5







Oregon State | 5-7 | 3-6







Washington State | 3-9 | 1-8








South:

USC | 9-3 | 6-3







Arizona | 8-4 | 6-3







Arizona State | 7-5 | 5-4







Utah | 7-5 | 5-4







UCLA | 5-7 | 4-5







Colorado | 5-7 | 3-5



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