2008 Weekly Picks

Week 5 Record: 37-16 (69.8%)
Season Record: 246-57 (81.2%)


Tuesday, September 30

FAU at MTSU


Wednesday, October 1

Louisiana Tech at Boise St


Thursday, October 2

Pittsburgh at South Florida
Memphis at UAB
Oregon St at Utah


Friday, October 3

Cincinnati at Marshall
BYU at Utah St


Saturday, October 4

Duke at Georgia Tech
Iowa at Michigan St
Indiana at Minnesota
Boston College at NC State
Rutgers at West Virginia
Akron at Kent St
Penn St at Purdue
Florida at Arkansas
Kansas at Iowa St
Texas A&M at Oklahoma St

Alcorn St at New Mexico St
Western Kentucky at Virginia Tech
UNLV at Colorado St
South Carolina at Mississippi
Ohio at Western Michigan
Stanford at Notre Dame
Washington St at UCLA
Army at Tulane
Arizona St at California
Illinois at Michigan

Temple at Miami (OH)
Kentucky at Alabama
SMU at UCF
Texas Tech at Kansas St
Florida St at Miami
Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green
Navy at Air Force
Nevada at Idaho
Auburn at Vanderbilt
San Diego St at TCU

Connecticut at North Carolina
FIU at North Texas
Maryland at Virginia
Louisiana Lafayette at Louisiana Monroe
UTEP at Southern Miss
Northern Illinois at Tennessee
Ball St at Toledo
Washington at Arizona
Oregon at USC
Texas at Colorado

Rice at Tulsa
Ohio St at Wisconsin
Missouri at Nebraska
Wyoming at New Mexico
Hawaii at Fresno St
Oklahoma at Baylor

2008 Week 6 Top 25

1 - Oklahoma (2)
2 - LSU (7)
3 - Alabama (17)
4 - Missouri (6)
5 - Penn St (5)
6 - Texas Tech (8)
7 - USC (1)
8 - Florida (3)
9 - Georgia (4)
10 - South Florida (10)
11 - Utah (14)
12 - Texas (15)
13 - BYU (16)
14 - Boise St (18)
15 - Wisconsin (9)
16 - Ohio St (11)
17 - Auburn (12)
18 - Oregon (13)
19 - Kentucky (21)
20 - Oklahoma St (22)
21 - Fresno St (23)
22 - Tulsa (24)
23 - Connecticut (UR)
24 - Vanderbilt (UR)
25 - Wake Forest (20)

Previous week's rank in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Ball St, Cincinnati, North Carolina, Northwestern, Virginia Tech
Added: 23 Connecticut, 24 Vanderbilt
Dropped: 19 East Carolina, 25 Cincinnati

2008 Weekly Picks

Week 4 Record: 44-13 (77.2%)
Season Record: 209-41 (83.6%)


Thursday, September 25

SMU at Tulane
USC at Oregon St


Friday, September 26

Connecticut at Louisville


Saturday, September 27

Michigan St at Indiana
Virginia at Duke
Pittsburgh at Syracuse
Minnesota at Ohio St
Maryland at Clemson
Kent St at Ball St
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan
North Carolina at Miami
Northwestern at Iowa
Mississippi at Florida

Army at Texas A&M
Rhode Island at Boston College
VMI at Ohio
Western Michigan at Temple
Arkansas St at Memphis
Tennessee at Auburn
Fresno St at UCLA
Colorado vs Florida St at Jacksonville
Purdue at Notre Dame
Wisconsin at Michigan

Houston at East Carolina
Morgan St at Rutgers
Arkansas at Texas
Marshall at West Virginia
Cincinnati at Akron
Louisiana Lafayette at Kansas St
Navy at Wake Forest
Buffalo at Central Michigan
Bowling Green at Wyoming
North Texas at Rice

Colorado St at California
Oregon at Washington St
Western Kentucky at Kentucky
TCU at Oklahoma
Central Arkansas at Tulsa
UAB at South Carolina
FIU at Toledo
Troy at Oklahoma St
Mississippi St at LSU
South Florida at NC State

Alabama at Georgia
Idaho at San Diego St
Virginia Tech at Nebraska
New Mexico at New Mexico St
Illinois at Penn St
Weber St at Utah
UCF at UTEP
Stanford at Washington
Nevada at UNLV
San Jose St at Hawaii

Weekly Wrapup

Week 4 Review
- I keep betting against Virginia Tech, and they keep winning games 20-17. An intriguing game at Nebraska looms.
- BYU has outscored their opponents 172-44 on the year for an average score of 43-11. The past two games have been 103-0.
- I thought Rutgers would have a down year, but I never thought they would start 0-3 with a loss to Navy (also in a down year.) At least they should break their losing streak with Morgan State coming to town.
- With so many non-BCS teams having great starts to the season, Boise State had been somewhat lost in the crowd. That all changed when they beat a really good Oregon team in Eugene.
- At the end of the year, we might look back at the Tennessee-UCLA game and realize that what was once an elite non-conference matchup turned into just another meeting of mediocre (or worse) programs.
- Vanderbilt has had some decent teams over the past few seasons, but it looks like this is the one that will finally break the postseason drought. They've started 4-0 with two conference wins already. There will be several more opportunities to get enough wins to go bowling.
- There are 27 undefeated teams left, with seven in the Big 12 and six in the SEC. The ACC and Pac-10 are down to just one each (Wake Forest and USC.) There are six non-BCS teams left.
- There are only eight winless teams left, and only the Sun Belt has more than one.



Week 5 Preview
- Connecticut is averaging almost 280 rushing yards per game. They travel to Louisville, who is allowing only 42 rushing yards per game. Something has to give. I'm betting on Louisville, whose offense is coming around to match a stingy defense.
- Georgia hosts Alabama in the only meeting of my ranked teams this week. Two really good defenses will be on display, but Georgia's offense is more mature.
- I've been high on this Penn State team since the preseason, and although they've been dominant, they haven't really been tested. Illinois kicks off their conference schedule, and should begin to confirm or disprove my expectations of the Nittany Lions as an elite team.
- NC State pulled off a stunning upset of a ranked team last week. Can they do it twice in a row as they host South Florida?
- Fresno State finishes up their brutal non-conference slate as they travel to UCLA in a game that looked much more interesting after Week 1 than it does now.

2008 Week 5 Top 25

1 - USC (1)
2 - Oklahoma (2)
3 - Florida (3)
4 - Georgia (4)
5 - Penn St (7)
6 - Missouri (8)
7 - LSU (14)
8 - Texas Tech (5)
9 - Wisconsin (13)
10 - South Florida (11)
11 - Ohio St (10)
12 - Auburn (9)
13 - Oregon (6)
14 - Utah (15)
15 - Texas (16)
16 - BYU (17)
17 - Alabama (18)
18 - Boise St (20)
19 - East Carolina (12)
20 - Wake Forest (21)
21 - Kentucky (22)
22 - Oklahoma St (25)
23 - Fresno St (24)
24 - Tulsa (UR)
25 - Cincinnati (UR)

Previous week's rank in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Colorado, Connecticut, Kansas, TCU, Virginia Tech
Added: Tulsa, Cincinnati
Dropped: 19 West Virginia, 23 Arizona St

2008 Weekly Picks

Wednesday, September 17

Kansas State at Louisville


Thursday, September 18

West Virginia at Colorado


Friday, September 19

Baylor at Connecticut


Saturday, September 20

Mississippi State at Georgia Tech
Ohio at Northwestern
FAU at Minnesota
East Carolina at NC State
Troy at Ohio St
Temple at Penn St
Iowa at Pittsburgh
Central Michigan at Purdue
Alabama at Arkansas
UCF at Boston College

Eastern Michigan at Maryland
South Carolina St at Clemson
Miami at Texas A&M
Akron at Army
Buffalo at Missouri
Arizona at UCLA
Wyoming at BYU
Indiana St at Northern Illinois
Louisiana Monroe at Tulane
Houston at Colorado St

Notre Dame at Michigan St
Virginia Tech at North Carolina
Northeastern at Syracuse
Rutgers at Navy
Boise St at Oregon
Marshall at Southern Miss
Florida at Tennessee
Alabama St at UAB
Utah at Air Force
South Florida at FIU

Wake Forest at Florida St
Ball St at Indiana
Murray St at Western Kentucky
Vanderbilt at Mississippi
New Mexico at Tulsa
Rice at Texas
Portland St at Washington St
Kent St at Louisiana Lafayette
MTSU at Arkansas St
Sam Houston St at Kansas

SE Louisiana at Louisiana Tech
Wofford at South Carolina
Massachusetts at Texas Tech
Tennessee Tech at Western Michigan
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati
LSU at Auburn
Georgia at Arizona St
Nicholls St at Memphis
Idaho at Utah St
TCU at SMU

Fresno St at Toledo
San Jose St at Stanford
Iowa St at UNLV
New Mexico St at UTEP

Weekly Wrapup

Week 3 Review

- Not a good weekend for the Pac-10. Seven losses including four to teams from the Mountain West, a blowout by Baylor, and California caught sleepwalking against Maryland. Oregon needed OT to beat Purdue, a middle-tier Big Ten team at best. The lone bright spots were USC firmly entrenching itself as the #1 team in the country, and Oregon State dominating an overmatched Hawaii squad. With games against Boise State and Georgia this weekend, the conference has a opportunity to regain some respect.
- Speaking of USC, I'm not at all surprised that they won big. This team always excels against non-conference foes. The last time they lost to one was in the Rose Bowl to Texas for the National Championship. The last in-season loss was to Kansas State in 2002. In the past three years, they've beaten Arkansas twice, Nebraska twice, Notre Dame three times, Fresno State, Michigan, and Illinois. The problem has been surviving the weekly grind of the conference schedule without slipping up to a Stanford of an Oregon State.
- Never underestimate the importance of special teams. Fresno State missed three field goals in their 13-10 loss to Wisconsin.
- My apologies to Connecticut, who I mentioned in a pillowfight last week with Virginia. I thought it would be a low-scoring defensive battle. Instead Connecticut rolled up over 500 yards of offense and scored 45 points. Donald Brown is the star, averaging over 180 rushing yards per game and has already scored eight touchdowns, one behind Javon Ringer of Michigan State for most in the country.
- One storyline to follow all season is whether Michigan makes it to a bowl game. They need all the wins they can get against teams like Notre Dame. Wisconsin and Illinois are up next.


Week 4 Preview
- LSU at Auburn: A tough defensive struggle much like the one Auburn just had with Mississippi State. Both teams will focus on running the ball instead of their inexperienced QBs. The difference may be turnovers, which favors Auburn since LSU has only forced one in two games.
- Georgia at Arizona State: Georgia's offense struggled last week on the road, but it was against a stout South Carolina defense. Arizona State's defense isn't that good, but they will be able to manage more than seven points. Georgia takes another close one.
- Boise State at Oregon: Fresno State's BCS dreams were crushed this past weekend, and it's likely the same could happen to Boise this weekend. Autzen Stadium is always a tough venue for visiting teams, and Oregon is a top ten team. Look for a solid win by the Ducks.
- Virginia Tech at North Carolina: North Carolina followed up a questionable opening week win with a dominant road victory over Rutgers. Virginia Tech is looking more respectable after a close win over a surprising Georgia Tech team. The winner becomes the favorite in the Coastal, and I'll take the home team.
- Wake Forest at Florida State: The much maligned ACC needs another team from the Atlantic to help carry the conference banner like the winner of the game above.
- Northeastern at Syracuse: The Orange find a beatable opponent on their schedule!
- Florida at Tennessee: National title contender Florida goes on the road for the first time to face the defending SEC East champs. Tennessee needs to prove their loss to UCLA was just an aberration, especially after what BYU did to the Bruins.
- Utah at Air Force: An underrated battle of two unbeaten teams in the same conference. Utah doesn't have many landmine games on the schedule, but this is one of them. The Utes should still get the win.

2008 Week 4 Top 25

1 - USC (4)
2 - Oklahoma (1)
3 - Florida (2)
4 - Georgia (3)
5 - Texas Tech (6)
6 - Oregon (8)
7 - Penn St (9)
8 - Missouri (10)
9 - Auburn (7)
10 - Ohio St (5)
11 - South Florida (11)
12 - East Carolina (12)
13 - Wisconsin (13)
14 - LSU (14)
15 - Utah (15)
16 - Texas (16)
17 - BYU (17)
18 - Alabama (18)
19 - West Virginia (20)
20 - Boise St (21)
21 - Wake Forest (22)
22 - Kentucky (UR)
23 - Arizona St (19)
24 - Fresno St (23)
25 - Oklahoma St (UR)

Previous week's rank in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes: Cincinnati, Florida St, Kansas, TCU, Tulsa
Added: Kentucky, Oklahoma St
Dropped: UCLA, California

2008 Weekly Picks

Thursday, September 11

North Carolina at Rutgers


Friday, September 12

Kansas at South Florida


Saturday, September 13

California at Maryland
FAU at Michigan St
Montana St at Minnesota
Navy at Duke
NC State at Clemson
Louisiana Lafayette at Illinois
Temple at Buffalo
Toledo at Eastern Michigan
Southern Illinois at Northwestern
Iowa St at Iowa

UAB at Tennessee
Nevada at Missouri
Washington St at Baylor
Ball St at Akron
Stanford at TCU
Central Michigan at Ohio
Deleware St at Kent St
Charleston Southern at Miami (OH)
East Carolina at Tulane
North Dakota St at Wyoming

Penn St at Syracuse
Air Force at Houston
Arkansas at Texas POSTPONED
UCLA at BYU
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
Oregon at Purdue
Georgia at South Carolina
Michigan at Notre Dame
Chattanooga at Florida St
Hawaii at Oregon St

Western Michigan at Idaho
MTSU at Kentucky
Samford at Mississippi
New Mexico St at Nebraska
Rice at Vanderbilt
Memphis at Marshall
Western Kentucky at Alabama
Auburn at Mississippi St
Southern Miss at Arkansas St
Alabama A&M at Louisiana Monroe

SMU at Texas Tech
Alcorn St at Troy
Missouri St at Oklahoma St
Virginia at Connecticut
Oklahoma at Washington
San Diego St at San Jose St
Ohio St at USC
Bowling Green at Boise St
North Texas at LSU
Arizona at New Mexico

Utah at Utah St
UNLV at Arizona St
Wisconsin at Fresno St

2008 Week 2 Wrapup

Week 2 Review
* Georgia Tech pull off a strong road victory against Boston College. Can they be a player in the ACC in Paul Johnson's first season? If they earn a win at Virginia Tech on Saturday, they'll become the favorite to take the Coastal division.
* A lot of people are discussing the controversial call at the end of the BYU-Washington game. Should the flag have been thrown? Should Jake Locker have shown more restraint? My question is why isn't BYU getting more respect? It was a closer game than it should have been, but when they had a chance to end the game they executed. Washington did not. BYU did the same thing against UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl last year when they blocked a last second field goal to ensure victory. What's lost in the discussion is the credit due to the Cougs.
* Arkansas had another gritty late fourth quarter comeback win. Too bad it was against Louisiana Monroe. Things aren't looking good for the Hogs, who travel to Texas this weekend.
* Note to Army: If you are going to play an FCS team looking for an easy win, don't play one of the perennial powers. New Hampshire is 4-0 since 2004 against FBS teams (Rutgers, Northwestern, Marshall, Army.)


Week 3 Preview
* The premiere non-conference game of the year Ohio State at USC kicks off Saturday night. Two of the top five teams in the country will be battling for the #1 spot in the polls, national title favorite status, the most impressive win of the young season, and some serious bragging rights.
* Wisconsin travels to Fresno State in a battle of ranked teams. Wisconsin has played well in their first two games, but they must travel cross-country to face a Fresno State team that's had a week off to prepare for the biggest home game of their season.
* BYU and UCLA play for the third time in two years. UCLA looked better than expected in the opener, and BYU has some problems that need to be addressed, like a -4 turnover margin. Both teams need this win to keep their seasons going in the right direction.
* Kansas at South Florida on Friday night is another great game this weekend. Both teams are coming off huge seasons and are trying to prove that it wasn't a fluke.
* Before the season began, I thought California-Maryland was going to be a very good, if underrated, non-conference game. Now it looks like the teams are headed in opposite directions. I'll be very surprised if this is anything but a Bears blowout, even though it's in Maryland.
* Other road teams that should win handily: Penn State at Syracuse, East Carolina at Tulane, Oregon at Purdue, Western Michigan at Idaho, and yes even North Dakota State at Wyoming.
* South Carolina has lost to Vanderbilt two straight years. Can they beat Georgia two straight years? I say no, but it's worth keeping an eye on.
* Temple-Buffalo was the pillowfight of the season just two short years ago. Now it's a matchup of two MAC East contenders.
* Speaking of pillowfights, Washington State-Baylor, Virginia-Connecticut, and San Diego State-San Jose State all fall into that category. I have to mention the most talented pillowfight of the season is the week between Michigan and Notre Dame. While watching the game, I predict that it will be hard to believe that these are the two winningest programs in college football history.

Week 3 Top 25

1 - Oklahoma (2)
2 - Florida (1)
3 - Georgia (3)
4 - USC (4)
5 - Ohio St (5)
6 - Texas Tech (8)
7 - Auburn (9)
8 - Oregon (10)
9 - Penn St (12)
10 - Missouri (6)
11 - South Florida (7)
12 - East Carolina (24)
13 - Wisconsin (16)
14 - LSU (14)
15 - Utah (15)
16 - Texas (17)
17 - BYU (13)
18 - Alabama (18)
19 - Arizona St (25)
20 - West Virginia (11)
21 - Boise St (19)
22 - Wake Forest (21)
23 - Fresno St (22)
24 - UCLA (23)
25 - California (UR)

Previous week's rank in parenthesis

Others Receiving Votes: Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Kentucky, Tulsa
Added: California
Dropped: Cincinnati

Notes:
* Oklahoma takes over the top spot after beating Top 30 team Cincinnati with ease. It's probably a moot point though, since the winner of the Ohio St-USC showdown is likely to vault to the top with a higher quality win.
* Where do you rank East Carolina? They're 2-0 against a very tough schedule, and have proven themselves more than anyone else. They are my biggest gainer, jumping up 12 spots, but still might be underrated.

2008 Weekly Picks

Weekly Record 59-7 (89.4%)
Season Record 123-16 (88.5%)


Thursday, September 4

South Carolina at Vanderbilt
Nicholls St at New Mexico St POSTPONED


Friday, September 5

Navy at Ball St


Saturday, September 6

Georgia Tech at Boston College
Eastern Michigan at Michigan St
Miami (OH) at Michigan
Ohio at Ohio St
Connecticut at Temple
Marshall at Wisconsin
Eastern Illinois at Illinois
Northern Colorado at Purdue
FIU at Iowa
Southern Miss at Auburn

San Jose St at Nebraska
New Hampshire at Army
Furman at Virginia Tech
BYU at Washington
Montana St at Kansas St
Sacramento St at Colorado St
Eastern Washington at Colorado
Central Michigan at Georgia
San Diego St at Notre Dame
Tennessee Tech at Louisville

Mississippi at Wake Forest
Akron at Syracuse
Cincinnati at Oklahoma
Oregon St at Penn St
Citadel at Clemson
Utah St at Oregon
Air Force at Wyoming
Richmond at Virginia
UAB at FAU
West Virginia at East Carolina

Texas A&M at New Mexico
Idaho St at Idaho
Western Carolina at Florida St
Norfolk St at Kentucky
William & Mary at NC State
Buffalo at Pittsburgh
Western Kentucky at Eastern Kentucky
California at Washington St
Louisiana Monroe at Arkansas in Little Rock
Kent St at Iowa St

Murray St at Indiana
SE Missouri St at Missouri
Northwestern at Duke
Northwestern St at Baylor
Tulsa at North Texas
Tulane at Alabama
Southeastern Louisiana at Mississippi St
Texas Southern at Arkansas St
South Florida at UCF
Lousiana Tech at Kansas

Maryland at MTSU
Stephen F. Austin at TCU
Northern Illinois at Western Michigan
Minnesota at Bowling Green
Houston at Oklahoma St
Troy at LSU POSTPONED
Miami at Florida
UNLV at Utah
Rice at Memphis
Texas Tech at Nevada

Texas St at SMU
Toledo at Arizona
Stanford at Arizona St
Texas at UTEP
Weber St at Hawaii

2008 Week 1 Wrapup

Picks that make me look good:
* Utah over Michigan
* East Carolina over Virginia Tech
* Stanford over Oregon St
* Fresno St over Rutgers


Picks that make me look bad:
* Clemson over Alabama
* Louisville over Kentucky
* UTEP over Buffalo


Week 1 Review
* Bowling Green is a good football team. Dave Wannstedt is a good recruiter.
* North Carolina had me worried when they struggled against McNeese State. They get a bye week before traveling to Rutgers on a Thursday night. Rutgers, who looked very flat against Fresno State, also has a bye week prior to that game. That matchup will be a good measuring stick for both teams.
* Arkansas State pulled off the biggest upset in the first week of action. With conference favorite FAU getting blown out by Texas, the Red Wolves might be a player in the Sun Belt. As for Texas A&M, hopefully this is just a growing pain that comes with a new coach and his new systems. In a tough division, A&M can't afford many slip-ups like this one.
* Is Illinois' offense better than I expected, or is Missouri's defense worse? Missouri should be very worried after giving up 451 passing yards to Juice Williams with several more good QBs on the schedule. Illinois may be better than I thought, and they'll have the chance to prove it on September 27 against Penn State.
* I thought Arkansas was going to have a down year, but I never imagined they would come close to losing to Western Illinois. They play Louisiana Monroe next week, but after that there isn't an easy win on the schedule.
* Remember last season when Louisville didn't play defense? Looks like they aren't going to play offense this season. Don't let the final score confuse you, the defense played very well holding Kentucky to 210 yards and forcing a safety. They couldn't overcome five turnovers and general ineptness of the offense.
* Based on my projection, Louisiana Tech needed just one upset to get to bowl eligibility, and they got it against Mississippi State.


Week 2 Preview
* In a week lacking many good matchups, there are two potentially good games in West Virginia @ East Carolina and Cincinnati @ Oklahoma. East Carolina and Cincinnati have only gotten some of the national recognition they deserve, but that would all change if either gets a win this week.
* Utah received all the praise after beating Michigan in the Big House, but BYU wants in the spotlight too. They play a talented but underachieving Washington team this week.
* Southern Miss rolled up 51 points and over 600 yards of total offense in a blowout of Louisiana Lafayette. Auburn shut out Louisiana Monroe and held them to 220 yards of offense. It will be interesting to see how the two match up next week.
* Some teams are looking to build on their week one success. Mississippi looked good against Memphis, but can they do it against a complete Wake Forest team? Louisiana Tech had a nice upset, but a win over Kansas would be huge. Temple hosts Connecticut in a potential upset. If Stanford wants to prove that it's for real, winning at Arizona State is a good place to start.
* Other teams are looking to rebound from a rough first week. Texas A&M goes to New Mexico, who is probably in a down year but could still be trouble for the Aggies. Pittsburgh hosts Buffalo and Michigan hosts Miami (OH), two talented MAC teams who could prove to be difficult.

2008 Week 2 Top 25

1 - Florida (1)
2 - Oklahoma (2)
3 - Georgia (3)
4 - USC (4)
5 - Ohio St (5)
6 - Missouri (6)
7 - South Florida (7)
8 - Texas Tech (8)
9 - Auburn (10)
10 - Oregon (11)
11 - West Virginia (12)
12 - Penn St (13)
13 - BYU (14)
14 - LSU (15)
15 - Utah (18)
16 - Wisconsin (16)
17 - Texas (17)
18 - Alabama (UR)
19 - Boise St (20)
20 - Cincinnati (21)
21 - Wake Forest (22)
22 - Fresno St (24)
23 - UCLA (UR)
24 - East Carolina (UR)
25 - Arizona St (25)

Others Receiving Votes: California, Florida St, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tulsa
Added: Alabama, UCLA, East Carolina
Dropped: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Tennessee
Previous week's rank in parenthesis