2009 Preseason Bowl Projections

BCS Bowl Games

BCS National Championship Game: Florida vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs West Virginia
Rose Bowl: USC vs Penn St
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Ohio St
Orange Bowl: Florida St vs TCU


The Others

Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs Iowa
Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs Clemson
Cotton Bowl: LSU vs Oklahoma St
Outback Bowl: Illinois vs South Carolina
Insight Bowl: Michigan vs Kansas

Chik-Fil-A Bowl: Mississippi vs Virginia Tech
Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs Nebraska
Sun Bowl: Cal vs Pitt
Liberty Bowl: Houston vs Arkansas
Alamo Bowl: Michigan St vs Texas Tech

Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs Georgia Tech
Car Care Bowl: USF vs North Carolina
Champs Sports Bowl: Miami vs Minnesota
Poinsettia Bowl: Utah vs UCLA
Papajohns.com Bowl Cincinnati vs Arkansas St

Emerald Bowl: Arizona at NC State
Independence Bowl: Kentucky at Missouri
GMAC Bowl: Western Michigan at Louisiana Tech
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs East Carolina
Las Vegas Bowl: BYU vs Oregon St

Humanitarian Bowl: Boise St vs Northern Illinois
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs Tulsa
Motor City Bowl: Northwestern vs Central Michigan
Texas Bowl: Navy vs Colorado
New Orleans Bowl: Tulane vs Troy

St Petersburg Bowl: Southern Miss vs FAU
EagleBank Bowl: Marshall vs Wake Forest
New Mexico Bowl: Nevada vs New Mexico
International Bowl: Rutgers vs Temple


Conference Championship Games

ACC: Florida St vs Virginia Tech
Big 12: Oklahoma vs Nebraska
C-USA: East Carolina vs Houston
MAC: Central Michigan vs Buffalo
SEC: Florida vs Alabama

2009 Week 1 Picks

And so starts another season of picking ~800 college football games. I just missed out on picking 600 games correctly and having a 75% record for both of the past two seasons. In 2007, I was 591-201 or 74.6%. In 2008, I was 597-205 or 74.4%. Here's to hitting and exceeding both of those goals this year.


Thursday, September 3
Troy at Bowling Green
South Carolina at NC State
Villanova at Temple
Coastal Carolina at Kent St
North Texas at Ball St
North Dakota St at Iowa St
Eastern Kentucky at Indiana
Utah St at Utah
Oregon at Boise St


Friday, September 4
Tulsa at Tulane
Central Arkansas at Hawaii

Saturday, September 5
Navy at Ohio St
Akron at Penn St
Kentucky vs Miami (OH) at Cincinnati
Toledo at Purdue
Minnesota at Syracuse
Appalachian St at East Carolina
Montana St at Michigan St
Towson at Northwestern
Liberty at West Virginia
Northern Iowa at Iowa

Western Kentucky at Tennessee
Jacksonville St at Georgia Tech
Youngstown St at Pitt
Northeastern at Boston College
Nicholls St at Air Force
Portland St at Oregon St
Weber St at Wyoming
Georgia at Oklahoma St
Nevada at Notre Dame
San Jose St at USC

Western Michigan at Michigan
Baylor at Wake Forest
Jackson St at Mississippi St
Missouri vs Illinois at St. Louis
Rice at UAB
Southern Illinois at Marshall
Northwestern St at Houston
MTSU at Clemson
The Citadel at North Carolina
Wiiliam & Mary at Virginia

BYU vs Oklahoma at Arlington
FAU at Nebraska
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas
Connecticut at Ohio
Louisiana Tech at Auburn
New Mexico at Texas A&M
Army at Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois at Wisconsin
Charleston Southern at Florida
Northern Colorado at Kansas

Wofford at USF
Southern at Louisiana-Lafayette
Missouri St at Arkansas at Little Rock
Richmond at Duke
Alcorn St at Southern Miss
North Dakota at Texas Tech
Mississippi Valley St at Arkansas St
UMass at Kansas St
San Diego St at UCLA
Indiana St at Louisville

Samford at UCF
Western Carolina at Vanderbilt
Alabama vs Virginia Tech at Atlanta
Stanford at Washington St
Idaho at New Mexico St
Stephen F. Austin at SMU
Buffalo at UTEP
Maryland at Cal
Central Michigan at Arizona
Idaho St at Arizona St

UC Davis at Fresno St
Sacramento St at UNLV
LSU at Washington


Sunday, September 6
Ole Miss at Memphis
Colorado St at Colorado

Monday, September 7
Cincinnati at Rutgers
Miami at Florida St

2009 Preseason Top 25

Like many college football fans, I think preseason polls are a bad idea. I just choose to be part of the problem instead of part of the solution. The main difference between my poll and the AP or USA Today poll is that I am willing to make drastic changes early in the season. Other pollsters tend to only make small changes in teams' ranking, as though they don't want to admit they made a mistake. I freely admit my mistakes, because anyone who doesn't think preseason polls are a crapshoot is deceiving themselves. Last year's Preseason Top 25 had 15 teams (60%) that were ranked in my Final Top 25. I also had Florida and Oklahoma first and second in the preseason, and they ended up playing in the BCS National Championship Game. Just please ignore the fact that I had three teams (Auburn, Tennessee, Arizona St) in my poll that didn't even go to a bowl game. Anyway, onto the new poll!


1 - Florida (1)
2 - Oklahoma (5)
3 - Texas (2)
4 - USC (4)
5 - Alabama (6)
6 - Penn St (8)
7 - Mississippi (22)
8 - Oklahoma St (17)
9 - Ohio St (13)
10 - Virginia Tech (15)
11 - TCU (7)
12 - Boise St (9)
13 - LSU (UR)
14 - Georgia (11)
15 - Utah (3)
16 - Florida St (UR)
17 - Iowa (UR)
18 - Oregon (12)
19 - Nebraska (UR)
20 - Cal (UR)
21 - Georgia Tech (19)
22 - West Virginia (UR)
23 - BYU (23)
24 - Texas Tech (10)
25 - Pitt (21)

Ranking from the Final Top 25 in 2008 in parentheses

Others Receiving Votes:
Houston, Illinois, Michigan St, North Carolina, Oregon St

Newcomers (unranked at the end of last year):
LSU, Florida St, Iowa, Nebraska, Cal, West Virginia

Notably Absent (ranked at the end of last year):
Cincinnati, Michigan St, Ball St, Missouri, Tulsa, Oregon St

2009 ACC Preview

The Favorite (Atlantic): Florida State has had only one ten-win season in the past eight seasons. Prior to that, they had won at least ten games in 14 consecutive seasons. The Seminoles have a tough schedule in and out of conference, so they may not be able to recreate the glory days, but they do have a geat shot at playing in the conference title game. The non-conference slate has games against BYU, USF and Florida and in ACC play their are road trips to North Carolina, Clemson and Wake Forest. They do miss Virginia Tech though.

The Favorite (Coastal): Virginia Tech was a little down in the regular season, but still made it to the ACC title game and Orange Bowl, winning both. Virginia Tech broke the ACC's eight game losing streak in BCS bowls last season. The Hokies could be much better this year with an improved offense, although there is some concern with the top running back out for the season. Like Florida State, VT plays a really strong non-conference schedule with games against Alabama, Nebraska and East Carolina.

The Challenger (Coastal): Georgia Tech and Paul Johnson's option attack burst onto the scene last year in a big way. They went 9-3 in the regular season, good for a tie for first in the Coastal. They also beat Georgia in Athens, their first win against their rival in seven years. The offense returns all of the starters except for one offensive lineman, so the option should be sharper and more consistent. Miami might have gotten the pick here, but their schedule, especially the first four games, hurts them.

The Sleeper: NC State could make the leap in the third year under Tom O'Brien. They have eight home games, two of the non-conference games are against South Carolina and Pitt, which won't be easy but are definitely winnable. The Wolfpack won the last four games of the regular season including impressive wins over North Carolina and Miami before losing by six to Rutgers in the bowl game. If the defense can improve and quarterback Russell Wilson can be effective and consistent, NC State could contend in the Atlantic.

The Letdown: Boston College has appeared in the past two ACC title games, but I think they fall off hard this season. Between the offseason soap opera with firing the head coach and the complete lack of experience at the quarterback position, there are major concerns about this team. Also both defensive tackles were taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft, hurting what was a great rush defense. It's possible that the Eagles won't even make a bowl game this year.

Conference Players of the Year: Jonathan Dwyer (RB Georgia Tech) on offense, who fits perfectly in GT's system, and Jason Worilds (DE Virginia Tech) on defense.

I Wrote What?: I missed badly on Clemson in last year's preview, unable to predict their in-season implosion.

Non-Conference Games to Watch:
* Virginia Tech vs Alabama at Atlanta, Sept 5 - Some have tabbed Virginia Tech as a surprise national title contender. We'll find out in the first week.
* Oklahoma at Miami, Oct 3 - Miami tries to knock off a Top 5 team at home. The defense is talented, but will it produce results?
* Georgia at Georgia Tech, Nov 28 - Georgia Tech hasn't won this game at home since 1999.
* Florida St at BYU, Sept 19 - Florida State travels a long way for a tough road game.
* TCU at Clemson, Sept 26 - How will the Tiger faithful react if they lose this game, regardless of how good TCU is?


Projected Standings:
Atlantic:

Florida St | 9-3 | 6-2







Clemson | 8-4 | 5-3







Wake Forest | 7-5 | 4-4







NC State | 8-4 | 4-4







Boston College | 5-7 | 3-5







Maryland | 5-7 | 2-6








Coastal:

Virginia Tech | 9-3 | 6-2







Georgia Tech | 8-4 | 5-3







Miami | 8-4 | 5-3







North Carolina | 8-4 | 4-4







Virginia | 4-8 | 2-6







Duke | 5-7 | 2-6

2009 Big 12 Preview

The Favorite (North): Nebraska is the clear favorite after a good season in Bo Pelini's first year. The good included a tie for North Division, every regular season win was by at least nine points, and they beat Clemson in the Gator Bowl. The bad included blowout losses by Missouri (at home no less) and Oklahoma, giving up 28+ points per game, and having a -11 turnover ratio. Obviously there is still more work to be done before the Blackshirts are truly back. The schedule could be an issue with division road games against Missouri, Kansas and Colorado.

The Favorite (South): Oklahoma is my favorite even though many others are picking Texas here. There are offensive concerns at receivers and on the line, but Oklahoma should be able to reload these positions. Heisman winner Sam Bradford is back, Mackey Award favorite Jermaine Gresham is back, two 1000-yard rushers are back, and most of the defensive starters are back. Interestingly, Oklahoma has lost the last two times they've played at Texas Tech. Other road games against Miami and Nebraska look good on paper, but the Sooners may win them handily.

The Challenger (South): Texas will obviously challenge Oklahoma for a spot in the Big 12 championship game as well as the BCS National Championship game. Quarterback Colt McCoy returns and had an other-worldly 76.7 completion percentage. The Longhorns do lose skill players in Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, but the biggest loss is defensive end Brian Orakpo. Texas has to travel to Oklahoma State, but the Red River Rivalry is the game that matters the most.

The Sleeper: Oklahoma State isn't a true sleeper as they are ranked 9th and 11th in the two preseason polls. On the other hand, any team not named Texas or Oklahoma has to be a sleeper to win the South division. The Cowboys have one of the best trios of offensive players with quarterback Zac Robinson, running back Kendall Hunter, and wide receiver Dez Bryant. Bryant is my preseason pick for the Biletnikoff Award. The schedule gives them Texas and Texas Tech at home, but they have to go to Oklahoma.

The Letdown: Missouri is very unlikely to make it to their third straight Big 12 Championship Game. The personnel losses include their all-time leading passer Chase Daniel, first round draft pick WR Jeremy Maclin, Mackey Award winner Chase Coffman, and seven starters on defense. Also Coffman and Maclin are the school's second and third all-time leading receivers. 1000 yard rusher and 17 touchdown scorer Derrick Washington returns, and so does the nation's leading tackler Sean Witherspoon, so there are some stars back.

Conference Players of the Year: Sam Bradford (QB Oklahoma) on offense and Ndamukong Suh (DT Nebraska) on defense. These two could be the first two drafted in the 2010 NFL Draft.

I Wrote What?: I think worst thing in last year's preview is predicting both Texas and Texas A&M to have an 8-4 record.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Georgia at Oklahoma St, Sept 5 - One of the best opening weekend games, this will be used many times in the best conference debate.
* Nebraska at Virginia Tech, Sept 19 - Both teams should be improved from last year. Who has improved more?
* BYU vs Oklahoma at Arlington, Sept 5 - The opening of new Cowboys Stadium gives an opportunity to see how well Oklahoma has reloaded.
* Missouri vs Illinois at St. Louis, Sept 5 - Missouri tries to prove my letdown pick wrong starting with an important first game.
* Colorado St at Colorado, Sept 5 - Prior to last season, six games were decided by a touchdown or less in this rivalry.


Projected Standings:
North:

Nebraska | 9-3 | 6-2







Kansas | 8-4 | 4-4







Missouri | 7-5 | 4-4







Colorado | 6-6 | 3-5







Kansas St | 5-7 | 2-6







Iowa St | 3-9 | 0-8








South:

Oklahoma | 12-0 | 8-0







Texas | 11-1 | 7-1







Oklahoma St | 9-3 | 6-2







Texas Tech | 8-4 | 4-4







Baylor | 5-7 | 2-6







Texas A&M | 5-7 | 2-6

2009 Big East Preview

The Favorite: West Virginia gets the pick here in a conference full of very good but not great teams. It's difficult not to expect a dropff with the graduation of quarterback Pat White, but I think every other contender is more flawed. They lost four games last year, but three of them were by a combined total of ten points. To win the Big East this year, the Mountaineers will probably need to win the Backyard Brawl, a game they've lost the past two years.

The Challenger: Pittsburgh came close to winning the Big East for the first time under Dave Wannstedt last year, but a 28-21 loss at Cincinnati left them in second place. The loss of several good skill position players and uncertain quarterback play concerns me about the offense.

The Sleeper: USF lost five conference games last season despite being one of the most talented teams in the conference. This is the senior season for quarterback Matt Grothe and defensive end George Selvie, and it's the last chance for a conference championship. The biggest issue is the inexperience on the offensive line, but there are three really easy non-conference games (Wofford, at Western Kentucky, Charleston Southern) to start the season that will give them an opportunity to gel.

The Letdown: Cincinnati has won 21 games in the past two seasons, but this appears to be a rebuilding year for them. They only have one returning starter on defense, and four of last year's starters were drafted. There's also new defensive coordinator in place. The Bearcats should be good enough to have another winning season, but I don't see them contending for the conference title.

Conference Players of the Year: Noel Devine (RB West Virginia) who will carry the Mountaineers on offense, and George Selvie (DE USF) on defense.

I Wrote What?: Which was worse in last year's preview, predicting that USF would win the conference with an 11-1 record or claiming that Louisville would make the leap to 9-3?

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, Nov 14 - A late season game with both programs fighting for national respect. And oh by the way, last year's game was a four overtime thriller.
* East Carolina at West Virginia, Sept 12 - I'm sure WVU will be out for revenge against the only team that beat them by more than four points last year.
* USF at Florida St, Sept 26 - First meeting between the programs, they'll be playing for in-state bragging rights.
* Colorado at West Virginia, Oct 1 - Like the ECU game, West Virginia will be looking for another big revenge win.
* Illinois at Cincinnati, Nov 27 - The surprise Rose Bowl team from 2007 against the surprise Orange Bowl team of 2008.


Projected Standings:

West Virginia | 10-2 | 6-1







Pittsburgh | 9-3 | 5-2







USF | 8-4 | 5-2







Cincinnati | 7-5 | 4-3







Rutgers | 8-4 | 4-3







Connecticut | 5-7 | 3-4







Louisville | 4-8 | 1-6







Syracuse | 2-10 | 0-7

2009 Big Ten Preview

The Favorite: Penn State is my pick to win the Big Ten, due in part to getting both Ohio State and Iowa at home. There are heavy losses at receiver and in the secondary, but linebacker Sean Lee returns after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The non-conference schedule is weak and all of the games are at State College. There are a couple of tough road games at Illinois and Michigan State, but Penn State still has a great shot at going undefeated.

The Challenger: Ohio State is just behind Penn State in contending for the Big Ten title as well as an appearance in the national championship game. The Buckeyes will have to beat USC to be considered a true national title threat. Seven players were drafted in April, all in the first five rounds. Regardless, Ohio State doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. The only question is will they beat the other elite teams on their schedule.

The Sleeper: Iowa was a very underrated team last year, but they may make a lot more noise this year. They lost four games last year, but only by a combined 13 points. Any of those games could have easily gone the other way. They won the last four games of the season, including knocking off an unbeaten Penn State team, demolishing Minnesota on the road 55-0, and thumping South Carolina 31-10 in the Outback Bowl. The loss of Doak Walker Award winner Shonn Greene is a concern, as it the schedule with road trips to Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State. A conference title is probably out of the question, but a ten win season isn't.

The Letdown: Somehow Northwestern was able to win nine games last season despite beating only two bowl teams (Iowa, Minnesota.) Five wins were by eight points or fewer. The offensive losses are heavy, led by the starting quarterback and running back, and the top three receivers. This season they could go 4-0 out of conference, but the conference record is going to drop. The Wildcats will still go bowling, but seven wins is the likely ceiling.

Conference Players of the Year: Arrelious Benn (WR Illinois) on offense after a huge season, and Navorro Bowman (LB Penn St) on defense.

I Wrote What?: I remember being unsure about Michigan in last year's preview, but I never expected them to fall that hard. I also didn't expected Minnesota to improve by six wins.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* USC at Ohio St, Sept 12 - Easily one of the best non-conference games on paper, but last year's version of this game was disappointing.
* Missouri vs Illinois at St. Louis, Sept 5 - The Arch Rivalry game is a fun way to kick off the season. Look for Illinois to announce they are back.
* Notre Dame at Michigan, Sept 12 - An early season test to see how much Michigan has improved since last year.
* California at Minnesota, Sept 19 - Minnesota had trouble defending their home field last season. Will they be any better now, especially against a top team like Cal?
* Illinois at Cincinnati, Nov 27 - A Big Ten team playing the day after Thanksgiving? Outside shot at both teams being ranked for this game.


Projected Standings:

Penn St | 11-1 | 7-1







Ohio St | 10-2 | 7-1







Iowa | 10-2 | 6-2







Illinois | 9-3 | 5-3







Minnesota | 7-5 | 4-4







Michigan St | 8-4 | 4-4







Michigan | 7-5 | 3-5







Northwestern | 7-5 | 3-5







Wisconsin | 6-6 | 3-5







Purdue | 3-9 | 2-6







Indiana | 2-10 | 0-8

2009 C-USA Preview

The Favorite (East): East Carolina barely edges out Southern Miss as the favorite to win the division. The defense is the strongest in the conference, but the offense needs to cut down on its two turnover per game average. Much like last season, East Carolina will have several opportunities to get statement wins out of conference with games against West Virginia, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech.

The Favorite (West): Houston didn't take too big of step back despite the coaching change. After a transition year, Kevin Sumlin could have the best team in the conference. I would say the offense should be better, but I don't know if they will improve on 40 points and 562 yards per game. Can Case Keenum improve on 5020 passing yards and 44 touchdowns?

The Challenger (East): Southern Miss started the season 2-6, and the Larry Fedora experiment didn't seem to be working. Then they won their next five games including the bowl game to continue their streak of consecutive winning seasons to 15. Southern Miss returns 19 starters and is in the second year of Fedora's system, so it's likely that the team will continue to improve on both sides of the ball. The schedule does have several difficult road games, but this team has potential to be special.

The Sleeper: There are a ton of teams fighting for this spot, and they are going to end up beating up on each other. I have Tulane in a bowl game based on them having far fewer injuries than last season. That would be the biggest improvement in the standings of any team in the conference. I'm also calling for Marshall to end their five year bowl drought.

The Letdown: Rice is going from a 10 win season to a losing season. After scoring 40+ points per game last season, Phil Steele calculates that they only return 16.5% of offensive yardage from last season, lowest in the country. With the school's all-time leading passer, all-time leading receiver, and do-everything TE gone, the offense may score half as many points. The defense gave up 33 points and 450 yards per game last season, so it doesn't appear to be capable to carry the team either.

Conference Player of the Year: Case Keenum (QB Houston) gets the nod on offense due to his ridiculous stats, but DeAndre Brown (WR Southern Miss) is the most talented player. Albert McClellan (DE Marshall) on defense.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I was way too high on UCF and SMU and way too low on Rice. Mark Snyder at Marshall survived another losing season, but he's still on the hot seat this year.

Non-conference Games to Watch
* Virginia Tech at East Carolina, Nov 5 - ECU started last season with a win over VT in Charlotte. Will they get another win, this time at home?
* Texas Tech at Houston, Sept 26 - Here's to offensive fireworks from both teams. Can the combined score break 100?
* Boise St at Tulsa, Oct 14 - Two more of the best offenses square off in a Wednesday night game.
* East Carolina at West Virginia, Sept 12 - I think ECU can get a road win here even though they are 0-12 all time in Morgantown.
* Southern Miss at Louisville, Oct 10 - An old C-USA rivalry is renewed.


Projected Standings:
East:

East Carolina | 8-4 | 6-2







Southern Miss | 8-4 | 6-2







Marshall | 6-6 | 4-4







UAB | 5-7 | 4-4







UCF | 5-7 | 3-5







Memphis | 4-8 | 2-6








West:

Houston | 8-4 | 6-2







Tulsa | 8-4 | 6-2







Tulane | 6-6 | 4-4







Rice | 4-8 | 3-5







UTEP | 5-7 | 3-5







SMU | 2-10 | 1-7