2009 Week 4 Notes

17 teams remain unbeaten after 4 weeks. The Big 12 and the SEC lead the way with four apiece. The ACC is the only BCS conference in which every team has at least one loss. Surprisingly the Pac 10's only representative is UCLA. Three are from non-BCS conferences. So who is least likely to survive the weekend?

Getting Exposed?:
Texas A&M vs Arkansas at Arlington - The Aggies haven't been tested yet. Should be a fun shootout.
LSU at Georgia - The Tigers haven't looked that sharp yet this year. Georgia will make them pay if they aren't firing on all cylinders.
Wisconsin at Minnesota - All three wins against FBS teams were by 8 points or fewer. First time on the road this season.

Road Landmines:
Michigan at Michigan St - Rivalry game on the road could be trouble.
UCLA at Stanford - Stanford's only loss was ~3000 miles away from home.
Auburn at Tennessee - Like Wisconsin, this is Auburn's first road game.


Ten teams have yet to win a game this season. Not surprisingly, the MAC and Sun Belt each have three of these teams. I'm picking FAU to end the streak at home against Wyoming. Eastern Michgan and Nevada both have a decent shot at beating Temple and UNLV respectively.


Another 14 teams are winless against the FBS, but have beaten an FCS team. I think some of these teams are still good teams and just have had a brutal schedule thus far. Arkansas, Fresno State and possibly Illinois fall into this category. Michigan State has had a difficult schedule, but has been losing heartbreakers too. Their three losses have been by a combined 13 points.


Upset Specials: Four of my six upset specials from last week got the win. Not a lot of potential upsets out there this week. Most of the lines are 3.5 or less, making the games basically tossups.

Northwestern over Purdue - The Boilermakers have been losing close games.
Oregon St over Arizona St - I think Oregon State is a good team that just had to play two other good teams the past two weeks.
UCLA over Stanford - Even though Prince is out, UCLA's defense can win this game.
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois - I still think WMU is a good team and one of these weeks they are going to show it.


If I Were a Betting Man: I picked four of six lines correctly last week. Arkansas wasn't able to score on Alabama like I thought, and I missed badly on USF shocking Florida State.

Washington (+12.5) over Notre Dame - Seems way too high.
Penn State (-7) over Illinois - Not trying to keep picking against Illinois, it just happens.
Oregon St (+4.5) over Arizona St - I also think the Beavers win straight up.
SMU (+28) over TCU - Too high.
New Mexico St (+17) over San Diego St - The Aztecs shouldn't be favored by 17 over anyone.
Colorado St (-3) over Idaho - Still trying to figure out how Idaho is 3-1.

2009 Week 5 Picks

Week 1: 63-15 (80.8%)
Week 2: 51-11 (82.3%)
Week 3: 47-17 (73.4%)
Week 4: 45-16 (73.8%)
Season: 206-59 (77.7%)


Wednesday, September 30
Hawaii at Louisiana Tech


Thursday, October 1
Colorado at West Virginia
Southern Miss at UAB


Friday, October 2
Pitt at Louisville
Utah St at BYU


Saturday, October 3
Clemson at Maryland
Michigan at Michigan St
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Virginia Tech at Duke
Virginia at North Carolina
USF at Syracuse
East Carolina at Marshall
Tulane at Army
Toledo at Ball St
Northwestern at Purdue

Arkansas St at Iowa
Alabama at Kentucky
Cincinnati at Miami (OH)
Temple at Eastern Michigan
Kansas St at Iowa St
UCLA at Stanford
LSU at Georgia
Washington at Notre Dame
Florida St at Boston College
NC State at Wake Forest

Penn St at Illinois
Central Michigan at Buffalo
Memphis at UCF
Air Force at Navy
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois
New Mexico at Texas Tech
FIU at Louisiana-Monroe
Ohio at Bowling Green
Wyoming at FAU
UNLV at Nevada

Oregon St at Arizona St
Ohio St at Indiana
Mississippi at Vanderbilt
Kent St at Baylor
South Carolina St at South Carolina
Texas A&M vs Arkansas at Arlington
Tulsa at Rice
Georgia Tech at Mississippi St
Auburn at Tennessee
New Mexico St at San Diego St

USC at Cal
UC Davis at Boise St
Oklahoma at Miami
SMU at TCU
Houston at UTEP
Washington St at Oregon
Colorado St at Idaho

2009 Week 5 Top 25

Four more Top 10 teams fell this weekend. Cal and Miami proved unworthy of their big jumps from the previous week. Both lost badly on the road. Ole Miss was living off preseason hype until losing at South Carolina. The Rebels barely remained in my rankings. Iowa was able to go to State College and knock off Penn State, jumping them all the way up to #5. Houston leaps up to #6 after its second straight win over a Big XII team.

There are two matchups between ranked teams this weekend. #13 Oklahoma travels to #14 Miami, and #12 USC travels to #22 Cal in very important conference game.

1 - Florida (1)
2 - Texas (2)
3 - Alabama (3)
4 - Boise St (7)
5 - Iowa (24)
6 - Houston (16)
7 - TCU (9)
8 - Cincinnati (15)
9 - LSU (10)
10 - Virginia Tech (14)
11 - USC (11)
12 - Ohio St (12)
13 - Oklahoma (13)
14 - Miami (8)
15 - Penn St (5)
16 - Missouri (17)
17 - Michigan (18)
18 - Auburn (19)
19 - Kansas (UR)
20 - Wisconsin (UR)
21 - Nebraska (20)
22 - Cal (4)
23 - Mississippi (6)
24 - Oregon (UR)
25 - BYU (23)


Others Receiving Votes: Georgia Tech, Oklahoma St, UCLA, USF, Utah
Added: Kansas, Wisconsin, Oregon
Dropped: Florida St, Utah, Pitt

2009 Week 4 Picks

Week 1: 63-15 (80.8%)
Week 2: 51-11 (82.3%)
Week 3: 47-17 (73.4%)
Season: 161-43 (78.9%)


Thursday, September 24
Mississippi at South Carolina

Friday, September 25
Missouri at Nevada

Saturday, September 26
Rhode Island at Connecticut
USF at Florida St
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Minnesota at Northwestern
Indiana at Michigan
Buffalo at Temple
Michigan St at Wisconsin
LSU at Mississippi St
Fresno St at Cincinnati
Southern Miss at Kansas

Marshall at Memphis
Wake Forest at Boston College
San Diego St at Air Force
Tennessee Tech at Kansas St
UNLV at Wyoming
Rutgers at Maryland
UCF at East Carolina
Pitt at NC State
Illinois at Ohio St
TCU at Clemson

UTEP at Texas
Miami at Virginia Tech
Arkansas at Alabama
Akron at Central Michigan
Western Kentucky at Navy
Idaho at Northern Illinois
Cal at Oregon
McNeese St at Tulane
Louisiana-Monroe at FAU
Troy at Arkansas St

Florida at Kentucky
Colorado St at BYU
Ball St at Auburn
Arizona St at Georgia
Army at Iowa St
NC Central at Duke
Louisiana-Lafayette at Nebraska
Maine at Syracuse
Boise St at Bowling Green
Grambling St at Oklahoma St

Sam Houston St at Tulsa
Northwestern St at Baylor
UAB at Texas A&M
MTSU at North Texas
Toledo at FIU
Miami (OH) at Kent St
Ohio at Tennessee
Hofstra at Western Michigan
Louisville at Utah
Arizona at Oregon St

Cal Poly at San Jose St
Iowa at Penn St
Vanderbilt at Rice
Southern Utah at Utah St
Notre Dame at Purdue
Washington at Stanford
Texas Tech at Houston
New Mexico St at New Mexico
Washington St at USC

2009 Week 3 Notes

Coaches on the Hot Seat: Al Groh leads the only program in a BCS conference without a win. Virginia had a decent showing against Southern Miss, up 34-17 midway through the third quarter. Then Southern Miss scored three more touchdowns for the come from behind victory. Virginia has a bye this week. Ralph Friedgen of Maryland has to be feeling some heat after losing to MTSU in consecutive seasons, this time at home. The Terps host Rutgers this weekend.

Western Kentucky was blown out at home by an FCS team. Was this team really ready to move up to the FBS? Remember the Hilltoppers went door-to-door this summer trying to sell season tickets for $30.

Best line I've heard this week, courtesy of Pat Forde's column, "You can always count on Ohio State to lose a big game and USC to lose a small one."

Florida and Texas were less than impressive in so-called revenge games, but at least they didn't stumble like USC did. I don't think this is USC's last loss of the year either. The offense has no consistency and the defense can't completely carry the team like last year's unit could.

Iowa State won its first road game since 2005. Maybe Gene Chizik taking the Auburn job is going to work out for both programs.

Isn't the SEC supposed to be all about defense? Georgia has given up 78 points in the last two games, but is 2-0. The Georgia-Arkansas game was in particular a lot of fun, with Joe Cox and Ryan Mallett throwing for five touchdowns apiece.

Heisman Thoughts: Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy are still at the top despite starting slow. Max Hall's three picks in a lopsided loss to Florida State removes him from the race. Jimmy Clausen is healthy enough to play, but losing Michael Floyd with a broken collarbone will hurt his numbers. Jahvid Best's five touchdown day against Minnesota may move him into contender status. He still needs to lead Cal to big wins, starting this weekend at Oregon. Jacory Harris has moved into the spotlight with two big games against top competition. If he continues to impress against Virginia Tech and Oklahoma, he may become the favorite.

Two of my seven potential upset specials from last week came through (Florida State over BYU and MTSU over Maryland), and Nebraska only lost by an amazing last minute drive by Virginia Tech. For this week, I'm predicting two more on my list will occur.

Upset Specials:
* South Carolina over Mississippi - Always favor the home team on Thursday night games and Mississippi hasn't played anyone yet.
* Rice over Vanderbilt - Rice played Oklahoma State much closer than expected and is at home for the first time this season.
* Oregon over Cal - Autzen is a tough place to win in and Oregon has gotten better every week.
* Washington over Stanford - Will the Huskies ride the momentum?
* Iowa over Penn State - Iowa's D is solid and Penn State has had trouble running the ball.
* TCU over Clemson - Stifling defense against speedy skill players.

If I Were a Betting Man:
Missouri (-7) at Nevada - Nevada's offense isn't working yet.
Illinois at Ohio State (-14) - Line is this low since Illinois had a bye last week. I don't think it matters.
UCF (+10.5) at East Carolina - ECU by single digits.
Arkansas (+17) at Alabama - No upset, but line seems too high.
USF at Florida State (-14.5) - With Grothe out, USF may fall apart.
Iowa (+10) at Penn State - I think this is a close game even if Iowa doesn't get the upset.

2009 Week 4 Top 25

Two more Top 10 teams went down. USC had its annual conference slip-up, not surprisingly the game after the Ohio State showdown, and BYU was blasted at home. Cal and Miami jumped up significantly as they continue to impress. I wasn't a believer in Auburn until this weekend, but now the Tigers have rocketed all the way up to #19. Florida State and Iowa also return to the rankings for the first time since the preseason after big wins.


1 - Florida (1)
2 - Texas (2)
3 - Alabama (4)
4 - Cal (9)
5 - Penn State (5)
6 - Mississippi (6)
7 - Boise State (8)
8 - Miami (20)
9 - TCU (10)
10 - LSU (11)
11 - USC (3)
12 - Ohio St (13)
13 - Oklahoma (14)
14 - Virginia Tech (15)
15 - Cincinnati (18)
16 - Houston (19)
17 - Missouri (23)
18 - Michigan (25)
19 - Auburn (UR)
20 - Nebraska (16)
21 - Florida St (UR)
22 - Utah (12)
23 - BYU (7)
24 - Iowa (UR)
25 - Pitt (21)


Others Receiving Votes: Kansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma St, UCLA, Washington
Added: Auburn, Florida St, Iowa
Dropped: Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Texas Tech

2009 Week 3 Picks

Week 1: 63-15 (80.8%)
Week 2: 51-11 (82.3%)
Season: 114-26 (81.4%)


Thursday, September 17
Georgia Tech at Miami

Friday, September 18
Boise St at Fresno St

Saturday, September 19
Louisville at Kentucky
Eastern Michigan at Michigan
Cal at Minnesota
East Carolina at North Carolina
Temple at Penn St
Boston College at Clemson
Wofford at Wisconsin
Ball St at Army
Duke at Kansas
Northern Illinois at Purdue

Ohio St vs Toledo at Cleveland
North Texas at Alabama
Furman at Missouri
Wyoming at Colorado
Tennessee at Florida
Michigan St at Notre Dame
MTSU at Maryland
Tulsa at Oklahoma
Nebraska at Virginia Tech
USC at Washington

Indiana at Akron
Alcorn St at Central Michigan
Utah at Oregon
Virginia at Southern Miss
UAB at Troy
Arizona at Iowa
Nevada at Colorado St
San Diego St at Idaho
FIU at Rutgers
Connecticut at Baylor

SMU at Washington St
Gardner-Webb at NC State
Navy at Pitt
Elon at Wake Forest
Cincinnati at Oregon St
Charleston Southern at USF
Central Arkansas at Western Kentucky
Louisiana-Lafayette at LSU
Northwestern at Syracuse
Cal Poly at Ohio

Rice at Oklahoma St
Mississippi St at Vanderbilt
Utah St at Texas A&M
Florida St at BYU
Bowling Green at Marshall
Iowa St at Kent St
Nicholls St at Louisiana Tech
FAU at South Carolina
Texas St at TCU
Miami (OH) at Western Michigan

SE Louisiana at Mississippi
Air Force at New Mexico
Buffalo at UCF
West Virginia at Auburn
Georgia at Arkansas
UTEP at New Mexico St
Tennessee-Martin at Memphis
Texas Tech at Texas
San Jose St at Stanford
Louisiana-Monroe at Arizona St

Kansas St at UCLA
Hawaii at UNLV

2009 Week 2 Notes

Coaches on the Hot Seat: Dan Hawkins is now 0-2 this after a loss at Toledo. Next up is Wyoming at home and then a Thursday night game at West Virginia. Colorado needs to win this week or they will likely be 0-4 going into conference play. Al Groh also falls to 0-2. Getting blown out at home and then losing to MTSU can't be good for Tommy West at Memphis.

So Houston goes to Stillwater, OK and defeats the #5 team in the country by 10 points, and somehow they still are ranked in the USA Today Coaches Poll? How is this possible? Missouri wasn't ranked last week and now they are. What did they do that granted them inclusion over Houston? They beat Bowling Green at home by a single score, in a game they were losing 20-6 at one point in the third quarter.

Another week, another two ACC teams struggle with FCS teams. Florida State, who the conference was counting on after the fun opener with Miami, scored twice in the final 35 seconds to beat Jacksonville State. Maryland needed overtime to beat James Madison.

UCLA picked up a nice win over Tennessee in Knoxville, but I think the media is overrating the win. I'm not convinced on Tennessee being any better than last season, and I wouldn't be surprised if they stay home for the postseason again. UCLA's quarterback Kevin Prince broke his jaw at the end of the game and will be out 3-4 weeks. Fortunately they have an unimpressive Kansas State team coming and then a bye week. Rick Neuheisel will be able to settle the backup quarterback situation before conference play begins.

Back to Kansas State, Bill Snyder Part 2 is bad. I was concerned when I saw UMass play them closely, but I still thought they could beat a middle-tier Sun Belt team on the road. The Wildcats have to win seven games to go to a bowl game since they have two FCS teams on their schedule. It's not going to happen, and I don't think it will even be close.

Ball State is bad. They've lost at home to a team that was winless against its Sun Belt conference foes and to an FCS team. I don't think they will beat Army on the road this week.

Washington State is bad. SMU - who does look much improved in June Jones second year - is favored over them by a touchdown in Pullman.

Miami (OH) is bad. They haven't scored a point in the first two games of the season. They just kicked off a string of five road games in six weeks. The home game in that stretch: Cincinnati. Good luck Mike Haywood, you need it.

USC beat Ohio State on a late fourth quarter drive. Much like last year, this was considered one of the year's best games in the preseason. This time it lived up to its billing. Last year, USC won easily and lost the next week at Oregon State. A close win might be better for the Trojans, since it may keep them more focused and sharp for the road trip to Washington.

Heisman Thoughts: Jimmy Clausen probably takes a hit due to the loss to Michigan, but not much movement other than that. Tebow and McCoy are still the favorites. Max Hall is the proverbial third wheel. Bradford and Clausen will have to play themselves back into the race. Jahvid Best remains the token running back with his 10.4 ypc average, but Cal will have to have a huge year for him to get any support. None of the next wave of QBs (Pryor, Forcier, Barkley) will get much support against the popular group of upperclassmen.

Upset Specials: Not all of these will happen, but not all of the favorites will win either.
* West Virginia over Auburn - Auburn needs to show me more before I start believing in them.
* Arizona over Iowa - Hawkeyes, beating up on Iowa State hasn't made me forget about your Week 1 performance.
* Georgia Tech over Miami - Did Miami learn how to stop the triple option in the offseason?
* Nebraska over Virginia Tech - VT either solidifies its Top 15 ranking here or falls out completely.
* East Carolina over North Carolina - The Tar Heels looked mediocre against Connecticut.
* Florida State over BYU - Will the pressure get to BYU?
* MTSU over Maryland - If James Madison can push the Terps to OT, why can't MTSU win?

2009 Week 3 Top 25

Two more Top 10 teams go down. Ohio State was expected, Oklahoma State was not. Houston deserves a ton of credit for that win, they could be ranked even higher.

Much better matchups this weekend between ranked teams. Georgia Tech travels to Miami on a short week, Nebraska makes the return trip to Virginia Tech, and Texas hosts Texas Tech. Cincinnati at Oregon State just misses the cut.

1 - Florida (1)
2 - Texas (2)
3 - USC (3)
4 - Alabama (4)
5 - Penn State (6)
6 - Mississippi (7)
7 - BYU (9)
8 - Boise State (10)
9 - Cal (17)
10 - TCU (11)
11 - LSU (12)
12 - Utah (13)
13 - Ohio St (8)
14 - Oklahoma (14)
15 - Virginia Tech (15)
16 - Nebraska (16)
17 - Georgia Tech (18)
18 - Cincinnati (19)
19 - Houston (UR)
20 - Miami (20)
21 - Pitt (24)
22 - West Virginia (22)
23 - Missouri (21)
24 - Texas Tech (23)
25 - Michigan (UR)


Others Receiving Votes: Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma St, Oregon St, UCLA
Added: Houston, Michigan
Dropped: Oklahoma St, Oregon St

2009 Week 2 Picks

Week 1: 63-15 (80.8%)
Season: 63-15 (80.8%)

I see a lot of potential upsets this week. Dangerous home dogs include Toledo (vs Colorado), Iowa State (vs Iowa), Louisiana-Lafayette (vs Kansas State) and obviously Michigan and Ohio State (vs Notre Dame and USC respectively). Road teams capable of a noticeable upset include East Carolina (@West Virginia), Purdue (@Oregon), Fresno State (@Wisconsin), and UCLA (@Tennessee).


Thursday, September 10
Clemson at Georgia Tech

Friday, September 11
Colorado at Toledo

Saturday, September 12
North Carolina at Connecticut
Eastern Michigan at Northwestern
Western Michigan at Indiana
Central Michigan at Michigan St
Stanford at Wake Forest
Syracuse at Penn St
Fresno St at Wisconsin
Duke at Army
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
Iowa at Iowa St

Troy at Florida
Marshall at Virginia Tech
Kent St at Boston College
Arkansas St at Nebraska
Morgan St at Akron
Notre Dame at Michigan
Howard at Rutgers
Houston at Oklahoma St
TCU at Virginia
Idaho at Washington

East Carolina at West Virginia
Louisiana Tech at Navy
BYU at Tulane
Texas at Wyoming
SMU at UAB
UCLA at Tennessee
Weber St at Colorado St
Eastern Washington at Cal
Jacksonville St at Florida St
James Madison at Maryland

Murray St at NC State
Mississippi St at Auburn
South Carolina at Georgia
Vanderbilt at LSU
Air Force at Minnesota
Bowling Green at Minnesota
Idaho St at Oklahoma
Ohio at North Texas
Hawaii vs Washington St at Seattle
Kansas St at Louisiana-Lafayette

FIU at Alabama
Illinois St at Illinois
New Hampshire at Ball St
Memphis at MTSU
Texas Southern at Louisiana-Monroe
UCF at Southern Miss
Rice at Texas Tech
USF at Western Kentucky
SE Missouri St at Cincinnati
Western Illinois at Northern Illinois

Kansas at UTEP
Miami (OH) at Boise St
Prairie View A&M at New Mexico St
Tulsa at New Mexico
USC at Ohio St
Southern Utah at San Diego St
Northern Arizona at Arizona
Purdue at Oregon
Utah at San Jose St
Oregon St at UNLV

2009 Week 1 Notes

5 of 8 "experts" at ESPN predicted Rutgers to win the Big East. Even though only one week has passed, that pick isn't looking too good.

Come on, Temple! You haven't been to a bowl game since 1979. You have a team capable of playing in the postseason. You CANNOT lose to Villanova. Nova scored 13 points in the last ten minutes of the game, including a field goal as time expired. Temple had five turnovers.

Syracuse and Washington both lost, but both look much improved from last season. Washington should have an easy win against Idaho this week, but Syracuse has to go to Penn State.

LSU needs to shore up its defense if it wants to be considered a contender. I thought defensive coordinator John Chavis would be a worthy replacement of Bo Pelini. Maybe he just needs more time.

I never should have believed in you Iowa and Illinois. The Big Ten may not be very good this season. Ohio State barely beat Navy, and now has USC coming to town. The conference needs that win in the worst way. Penn State doesn't have any decent non-conference opponents to hang it's hat on. Who's next in the Big Ten pecking order? The Michigan teams? Other than Notre Dame, neither one will have any notable non-conference wins either.

I never should have doubted you Buffalo, Colorado State and Missouri.

Whose seat is hotter right now, Al Groh or Dan Hawkins? I'll keep this section updated throughout the season, but as of now only those two appear to be in trouble.

Is Cal legit? Could they win the Pac-10? Let's see how they handle the road trip to Minnesota in Week 3 before jumping to conclusions.

Heisman Thoughts: Sam Bradford is out of the race. McCoy and Tebow are still the favorites. Jahvid Best and Jonathan Dwyer are the running backs for now, although I'm not sure how much recognition they have at the national level. Jimmy Clausen and Max Hall will keep getting attention as long as the wins continue.

2009 Week 2 Top 25

Two Top 10 teams go down in Oklahoma and Virginia Tech. Even with losses, these two seem too elite to remove from the rankings. Georgia, Florida State and Oregon are the other ranked teams that lost. I also dropped Iowa out of the rankings due to its poor performance against Northern Iowa. These four will have to fight their way back into the rankings.

The only matchup of ranked teams is USC @ Ohio State. Other interesting games are Georgia Tech hosting Clemson on Thursday and East Carolina at West Virginia.

1 - Florida (1)
2 - Texas (3)
3 - USC (4)
4 - Alabama (5)
5 - Oklahoma State (8)
6 - Penn State (6)
7 - Mississippi (7)
8 - Ohio State (9)
9 - BYU (23)
10 - Boise State (12)
11 - TCU (11)
12 - LSU (13)
13 - Utah (15)
14 - Oklahoma (2)
15 - Virginia Tech (10)
16 - Nebraska (19)
17 - Cal (20)
18 - Georgia Tech (21)
19 - Cincinnati (UR)
20 - Miami (UR)
21 - Missouri (UR)
22 - West Virginia (22)
23 - Texas Tech (24)
24 - Pitt (25)
25 - Oregon State (UR)


Others Receiving Votes: Florida State, Iowa, Michigan State, North Carolina, Notre Dame
Added: Cincinnati, Miami, Missouri, Oregon State
Dropped: Georgia, Florida State, Iowa, Oregon