Rocket City Report: 2010 Big 12 Preview

The Favorite (North): Nebraska is the number one team in the preseason Rogers Poll, and they could be due for a big season in their last one as a member of the Big 12 conference. Last year Nebraska lost three games by a total of four points. Only one team scored more than 20 points against them. Seven teams were held to single digit points. The year culminated in an absolute dismantling of a good Arizona team 33-0 in the Holiday Bowl. This season they will have to compete without Ndamukong Suh, Heisman finalist and #2 overall draft pick. The schedule is set up for a potential undefeated season. They host Texas and miss Oklahoma from the South. The most difficult road games are probably at Washington and Texas A&M. Nebraska is definitely a national title contender this season.

The Favorite (South): As is usually the case, Oklahoma and Texas will be fighting for the top spot in the Big 12 South. I give the slight edge to Oklahoma because of more experience at the quarterback position and missing Nebraska in the regular season. OU and Nebraska will likely meet in the Big 12 title game though. Oklahoma was down last season due mainly to injuries but still won eight games. Like Nebraska, they lost two games by a single point. They also lost two other close games to the conference championship game participants. Although the schedule is difficult, I expect Oklahoma to be back in a big way and make it to the BCS National Championship Game.

The Challenger (North): Missouri is the second best team in the North, but I don't know if they can legitimately challenge Nebraska. The Huskers will likely sweep their divisional foes. Mizzou's quarterback Blaine Gabbert was very effective last season and had really good stats. His stats might have been even better if he didn't injure his ankle in the middle of the season. There is some concern though with the loss of his top two receivers, who accounted for almost 2500 yards and 20 touchdowns. WR Danario Alexander led the country with 1781 receiving yards. I'm also concerned that Missouri lost all three games last year to the Big 12 South, even Baylor.

The Challenger (South): Texas probably deserves co-favorite status with Oklahoma. I could definitely imagine them back in both the Big 12 and National Championship games again this season. QB Garrett Gilbert showed a lot of promise in last year's national title game, and that was against a great Alabama defense. Texas is helped by only having three conference road games and a relatively light non-conference schedule. UCLA comes to town, but I don't think they will be good enough to beat the Longhorns in Austin. There may be some growing pains associated with trying to transition back to a more run-oriented offense. Regardless, I would be shocked if Texas won fewer than ten games this season.

The Sleeper: Texas A&M could greatly improve in Mike Sherman's third season. The problem so far has obviously been the defense. In 25 games, Sherman's defenses have given up 60 points three times and 40 points 12 times. The defense improved slightly in his second season, but the offense made a drastic jump forward. The offense should be even better this season, as they are led by senior QB Jerrod Johnson who accounted for over 4000 yards of offense and 38 total touchdowns. Expect the Aggies to be involved in several shootouts this season. The schedule is not going to be an easy road. Along with annual games against Texas and Oklahoma, they also draw Nebraska and Missouri from the North, and they have to play Arkansas out of conference. Three of those games are at home and one is in Cowboys Stadium, so the Aggies could surprise.

The Letdown: Iowa State surprised my last season by going 7-6 with an Insight Bowl win in Paul Rhoads's first year. Despite the winning record, Iowa State was outscored by opponents by 17 points on the year and outgained by over 50 yards per game. The non-conference gets tougher this season with Utah and Northern Illinois in addition to the yearly rivalry game with Iowa. The draw from the South is harder as Texas and Oklahoma rotate onto the schedule. Iowa State greatly improved their defense last year, but the offense scored less than 21 points per game. That's a lot going against them to make it back to the postseason.

Conference Players of the Year: In a league of really good quarterbacks, Texas A&M QB Jerrod Johnson will put up the best stats.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I had Kansas and Colorado bowling while Iowa State and Texas A&M staying home. On the other side, I did write this: "Sam Bradford (QB Oklahoma) on offense and Ndamukong Suh (DT Nebraska) on defense. These two could be the first two drafted in the 2010 NFL Draft."

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Florida State at Oklahoma, Sept 11 - A really good early season test for Landry Jones and the rest of the Sooners.
* Arkansas vs Texas A&M at Arlington, Oct 9 - I assume A&M is improved and this should be a much better game this time around.
* Nebraska at Washington, Sept 18 - A trip to the west coast could be a potential stumbling block for Nebraska.
* Houston at Texas Tech, Nov 27 - Will Tuberville have Texas Tech playing well enough by the end of the season to avenge last season's loss to Houston?
* Georgia at Colorado, Oct 2 - Colorado could get the home upset with a bye week to prepare ahead of time.

Projected Standings:
North: