State of the Big East: The Big East will add TCU as a football-only member next season. The conference will then have nine football members, which allows a conference schedule with equal home and road games. No other expansion is planned at this time, but the Big East will remain connected in some way to most expansion rumors.
The Favorite: West Virginia flew under the radar last year, especially the lights-out Mountaineer defense. It gave up fewer than 14 points per game on average and held opponents to 10 or fewer points six times. NC State scored the most against them when they put up 23 in the bowl game. New head coach Dana Holgorsen, offensive coordinator from Oklahoma State, joins the staff. Expect an immediate jolt in the offense with him here. Regardless of the head coaching change, this is the strongest team in the Big East.
The Challenger: Pitt changed head coaches (twice) in the offseason, but still should be one of the top teams in the conference. Pitt was successful under Dave Wannstedt, winning 27 games over the past three years, but they still underachieved. Pitt squandered many opportunities to win the Big East, like last season when they lost to Connecticut by only two points. I think the excitement that new head coach Todd Graham will bring is good for the program. Pitt has three chances for statement non-conference win against Iowa, Notre Dame and Utah.
The Sleeper: Teams often make a big jump in the second season of the head coach's tenure. That could be the case for USF under Skip Holtz. USF lost three conference games last year by a total of 14 points. The Bulls also notched impressive non-conference wins at Miami and against Clemson in the bowl game. USF finishes the season hosting West Virginia in a Thursday night game. It's possible that contest will determine the winner of the Big East.
The Letdown: In 2009, Cincinnati won the Big East and played in a BCS bowl, but then lost their head coach and missed the postseason entirely the next year. Connecticut appears to be traveling down that same path this year. Head coach Randy Edsall took the team to the Fiesta Bowl, but then bolted for the Maryland vacancy in the offseason. I'm not a huge fan of the new head coach Paul Pasqualoni, and doubt he will continue the winning ways at Connecticut (33 wins in the past 4 years.)
Conference Player of the Year: West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith could thrive under the tutelage of Dana Holgorsen.
I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I had the bottom group of the standings all out of order. I predicted Cincinnati and Rutgers to go bowling, but not Syracuse and Louisville. I did pick Connecticut as my Sleeper, which turned out well.
Non-conference Games to Watch:
* LSU at West Virginia, September 24 - If West Virginia is going to return to the national elite, it needs to win the big non-conference home games.
* Pitt at Iowa, September 17 - Pitt has a couple of warmup games before facing a real defense like Iowa. This game should be a good barometer for how well Todd Graham's offense has been implemented.
* USF at Notre Dame, September 3 - An underrated opening weekend game matching two second year head coaches looking to make the leap.
* Louisville at Kentucky, September 17 - Louisville has lost this Bluegrass State battle four straight times, but that streak has included heart-breaking losses by four, six and seven points.
* Rutgers at North Carolina, September 10 - Rutgers has the opportunity to steal an early one on the road with all the turmoil in Chapel Hill.
Projected Standings:
West Virginia | 10-2 | 6-1
Pittsburgh | 8-4 | 5-2
USF | 9-3 | 5-2
Syracuse | 6-6 | 3-4
Cincinnati | 6-6 | 3-4
Rutgers | 6-6 | 2-5
Louisville | 5-7 | 2-5
Connecticut | 5-7 | 2-5
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