Rocket City Report: 2010 Mountain West Preview

The Favorite: As good as TCU was last year, they might be even better this year. TCU averaged more than 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing per game last year. Nine starters return from that offense. Seven starters return on defense that gave up fewer than 13 points per game and never gave up more than 317 total yards in a game. The Horned Frogs have to travel to Utah and to Arlington to play Oregon State, but they get BYU at home. TCU has the talent and schedule to go undefeated and make it to their second straight BCS bowl game. The schedule is lacking that one big name program (such as Virginia Tech) to get them into the title game though.

The Challenger: Utah or BYU could go here. I like this Utes team a little better, so they get the nod. They get three of their four toughest games at home, and Utah hasn't lost a home game since September 2007. There are some question marks with six players drafted off last year's team, and only four starters returning on defense. The non-conference is impressive with games against Pitt, Iowa State, and Notre Dame.

The Sleeper: I think San Diego State hired a good coach in Brady Hoke, and he'll lead them back to the postseason in his second season. They haven't been to a bowl game since 1998. I'm expecting that to change, so they get the Sleeper spot for the second straight year. The Aztecs noticeably improved on defense in Hoke's year. The offense should improve in year two. The non-conference has winnable games against Nicholls State, New Mexico State, and Utah State.

The Letdown: I'm not sure what to expect from this UNLV team. Part of me wanted to call them a sleeper, due to the coaching upgrade from Mike Sanford to Bobby Hauck. Then I decided that they will probably take a step back at first to take a big step forward in Hauck's second year. The non-conference is particularly brutal, and they might lose all five games. Throw in home games against TCU and Air Force, and I don't see a lot of wins on the schedule.

Conference Player of the Year: TCU QB Andy Dalton should have a huge senior season.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I had Wyoming as a two win team. They surprised me by going 6-6 and making the New Mexico Bowl. Then they surprised me again by beating Fresno State in it. Not bad for a team that was shut out three times.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* TCU vs Oregon State at Arlington, Sept 4 - TCU starts the march to a second consecutive unbeaten regular season at Cowboys Stadium.
* Pitt at Utah, Sept 2 - The best game on opening night. Both teams look poised for big seasons, but only one can start off with a win.
* BYU at Florida State, Sept 18 - This game last year was a disaster for BYU. They should be able to keep it closer this time around, even though it's in Tallahassee.
* Utah at Notre Dame, Nov 13 - This is the first meeting between these schools.
* Washington at BYU, Sept 4 - BYU unexpectedly knocked off Oklahoma in the opener last year. Can they get another big win against Washington?

Projected Standings: