The Favorite (East): Florida has been to three BCS bowl games in the past four years. Despite losing nine starters to the draft, including six in the first two rounds, and potential health issues with head coach Urban Meyer, the Gators are still my pick to win the East. Drawing Alabama and LSU from the West will make it difficult to get through the regular season unscathed.
The Favorite (West): Alabama is the defending national champions and has the returning Heisman winner. On the negative side, they have only two returning starters on defense and play in the stronger West division. While the defense may be down a notch, the offense is strong enough to carry the Tide to the SEC Championship game.
The Challenger (East): If South Carolina is going to make the leap under Steve Spurrier and win the East, this is the year to do it. Most of the East is going to be down, especially Tennessee. Georgia has more talent overall, but South Carolina has fewer question marks.
The Challengers (West): I have three teams in the West tied at 5-3 in conference, so all of them should go here. LSU loses a lot of starters, but is still one of the most talented teams in the conference. Arkansas looks poised to make the leap to contention with the SEC's best offense. Auburn was much better last season than I anticipated. They should be more consistent in Chizik's second year at the helm. It wouldn't be a major surprise to see any of them in the SEC Championship game.
The Letdown: Everything seems to be going wrong for Tennessee this offseason. I expect them to fall almost to the bottom of the SEC, above only Vanderbilt.
Conference Player of the Year: Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett should have the best individual stats in the conference.
I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I called Auburn to be the letdown team and have a losing season. Auburn finished 8-5 with an Outback Bowl win. I also called Mississippi State to go winless in conference, but they won three SEC games.
Non-Conference Games to Watch
* LSU vs North Carolina at Atlanta, Sept 4 - The Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game has been one of best non-conference games since its inception. This matchup is no different.
* Penn State at Alabama, Sept 11 - The reigning national champs get a tough non-conference battle.
* Clemson at Auburn, Sept 18 - A rematch of the closely contested Chick-Fil-A Bowl in 2007.
* Arkansas vs Texas A&M at Arlington, Oct 9 - Arkansas won this game handily last season, but this is still an interesting matchup against an improving Aggie squad.
* Florida at Florida St, Nov 27 - This series has been lopsided with Florida winning the last six. But Florida State should be improved, and this game should be better than the past few years.
Projected Standings:
East:
Florida | 11-1 | 7-1
South Carolina | 9-3 | 6-2
Georgia | 8-4 | 4-4
Kentucky | 7-5 | 3-5
Tennessee | 4-8 | 1-7
Vanderbilt | 1-11 | 0-8
West:
Alabama | 10-2 | 6-2
Auburn | 9-3 | 5-3
Arkansas | 9-3 | 5-3
LSU | 9-3 | 5-3
Mississippi | 7-5 | 3-5
Mississippi St | 6-6 | 3-5
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