The Favorite (North): Nebraska is the clear favorite after a good season in Bo Pelini's first year. The good included a tie for North Division, every regular season win was by at least nine points, and they beat Clemson in the Gator Bowl. The bad included blowout losses by Missouri (at home no less) and Oklahoma, giving up 28+ points per game, and having a -11 turnover ratio. Obviously there is still more work to be done before the Blackshirts are truly back. The schedule could be an issue with division road games against Missouri, Kansas and Colorado.
The Favorite (South): Oklahoma is my favorite even though many others are picking Texas here. There are offensive concerns at receivers and on the line, but Oklahoma should be able to reload these positions. Heisman winner Sam Bradford is back, Mackey Award favorite Jermaine Gresham is back, two 1000-yard rushers are back, and most of the defensive starters are back. Interestingly, Oklahoma has lost the last two times they've played at Texas Tech. Other road games against Miami and Nebraska look good on paper, but the Sooners may win them handily.
The Challenger (South): Texas will obviously challenge Oklahoma for a spot in the Big 12 championship game as well as the BCS National Championship game. Quarterback Colt McCoy returns and had an other-worldly 76.7 completion percentage. The Longhorns do lose skill players in Chris Ogbonnaya and Quan Cosby, but the biggest loss is defensive end Brian Orakpo. Texas has to travel to Oklahoma State, but the Red River Rivalry is the game that matters the most.
The Sleeper: Oklahoma State isn't a true sleeper as they are ranked 9th and 11th in the two preseason polls. On the other hand, any team not named Texas or Oklahoma has to be a sleeper to win the South division. The Cowboys have one of the best trios of offensive players with quarterback Zac Robinson, running back Kendall Hunter, and wide receiver Dez Bryant. Bryant is my preseason pick for the Biletnikoff Award. The schedule gives them Texas and Texas Tech at home, but they have to go to Oklahoma.
The Letdown: Missouri is very unlikely to make it to their third straight Big 12 Championship Game. The personnel losses include their all-time leading passer Chase Daniel, first round draft pick WR Jeremy Maclin, Mackey Award winner Chase Coffman, and seven starters on defense. Also Coffman and Maclin are the school's second and third all-time leading receivers. 1000 yard rusher and 17 touchdown scorer Derrick Washington returns, and so does the nation's leading tackler Sean Witherspoon, so there are some stars back.
Conference Players of the Year: Sam Bradford (QB Oklahoma) on offense and Ndamukong Suh (DT Nebraska) on defense. These two could be the first two drafted in the 2010 NFL Draft.
I Wrote What?: I think worst thing in last year's preview is predicting both Texas and Texas A&M to have an 8-4 record.
Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Georgia at Oklahoma St, Sept 5 - One of the best opening weekend games, this will be used many times in the best conference debate.
* Nebraska at Virginia Tech, Sept 19 - Both teams should be improved from last year. Who has improved more?
* BYU vs Oklahoma at Arlington, Sept 5 - The opening of new Cowboys Stadium gives an opportunity to see how well Oklahoma has reloaded.
* Missouri vs Illinois at St. Louis, Sept 5 - Missouri tries to prove my letdown pick wrong starting with an important first game.
* Colorado St at Colorado, Sept 5 - Prior to last season, six games were decided by a touchdown or less in this rivalry.
Projected Standings:
North:
Nebraska | 9-3 | 6-2
Kansas | 8-4 | 4-4
Missouri | 7-5 | 4-4
Colorado | 6-6 | 3-5
Kansas St | 5-7 | 2-6
Iowa St | 3-9 | 0-8
South:
Oklahoma | 12-0 | 8-0
Texas | 11-1 | 7-1
Oklahoma St | 9-3 | 6-2
Texas Tech | 8-4 | 4-4
Baylor | 5-7 | 2-6
Texas A&M | 5-7 | 2-6
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