Rocket City Report: 2009 Big Ten Preview

The Favorite: Penn State is my pick to win the Big Ten, due in part to getting both Ohio State and Iowa at home. There are heavy losses at receiver and in the secondary, but linebacker Sean Lee returns after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The non-conference schedule is weak and all of the games are at State College. There are a couple of tough road games at Illinois and Michigan State, but Penn State still has a great shot at going undefeated.

The Challenger: Ohio State is just behind Penn State in contending for the Big Ten title as well as an appearance in the national championship game. The Buckeyes will have to beat USC to be considered a true national title threat. Seven players were drafted in April, all in the first five rounds. Regardless, Ohio State doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. The only question is will they beat the other elite teams on their schedule.

The Sleeper: Iowa was a very underrated team last year, but they may make a lot more noise this year. They lost four games last year, but only by a combined 13 points. Any of those games could have easily gone the other way. They won the last four games of the season, including knocking off an unbeaten Penn State team, demolishing Minnesota on the road 55-0, and thumping South Carolina 31-10 in the Outback Bowl. The loss of Doak Walker Award winner Shonn Greene is a concern, as it the schedule with road trips to Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State. A conference title is probably out of the question, but a ten win season isn't.

The Letdown: Somehow Northwestern was able to win nine games last season despite beating only two bowl teams (Iowa, Minnesota.) Five wins were by eight points or fewer. The offensive losses are heavy, led by the starting quarterback and running back, and the top three receivers. This season they could go 4-0 out of conference, but the conference record is going to drop. The Wildcats will still go bowling, but seven wins is the likely ceiling.

Conference Players of the Year: Arrelious Benn (WR Illinois) on offense after a huge season, and Navorro Bowman (LB Penn St) on defense.

I Wrote What?: I remember being unsure about Michigan in last year's preview, but I never expected them to fall that hard. I also didn't expected Minnesota to improve by six wins.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* USC at Ohio St, Sept 12 - Easily one of the best non-conference games on paper, but last year's version of this game was disappointing.
* Missouri vs Illinois at St. Louis, Sept 5 - The Arch Rivalry game is a fun way to kick off the season. Look for Illinois to announce they are back.
* Notre Dame at Michigan, Sept 12 - An early season test to see how much Michigan has improved since last year.
* California at Minnesota, Sept 19 - Minnesota had trouble defending their home field last season. Will they be any better now, especially against a top team like Cal?
* Illinois at Cincinnati, Nov 27 - A Big Ten team playing the day after Thanksgiving? Outside shot at both teams being ranked for this game.

Projected Standings: