The Favorite (East): East Carolina barely edges out Southern Miss as the favorite to win the division. The defense is the strongest in the conference, but the offense needs to cut down on its two turnover per game average. Much like last season, East Carolina will have several opportunities to get statement wins out of conference with games against West Virginia, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech.
The Favorite (West): Houston didn't take too big of step back despite the coaching change. After a transition year, Kevin Sumlin could have the best team in the conference. I would say the offense should be better, but I don't know if they will improve on 40 points and 562 yards per game. Can Case Keenum improve on 5020 passing yards and 44 touchdowns?
The Challenger (East): Southern Miss started the season 2-6, and the Larry Fedora experiment didn't seem to be working. Then they won their next five games including the bowl game to continue their streak of consecutive winning seasons to 15. Southern Miss returns 19 starters and is in the second year of Fedora's system, so it's likely that the team will continue to improve on both sides of the ball. The schedule does have several difficult road games, but this team has potential to be special.
The Sleeper: There are a ton of teams fighting for this spot, and they are going to end up beating up on each other. I have Tulane in a bowl game based on them having far fewer injuries than last season. That would be the biggest improvement in the standings of any team in the conference. I'm also calling for Marshall to end their five year bowl drought.
The Letdown: Rice is going from a 10 win season to a losing season. After scoring 40+ points per game last season, Phil Steele calculates that they only return 16.5% of offensive yardage from last season, lowest in the country. With the school's all-time leading passer, all-time leading receiver, and do-everything TE gone, the offense may score half as many points. The defense gave up 33 points and 450 yards per game last season, so it doesn't appear to be capable to carry the team either.
Conference Player of the Year: Case Keenum (QB Houston) gets the nod on offense due to his ridiculous stats, but DeAndre Brown (WR Southern Miss) is the most talented player. Albert McClellan (DE Marshall) on defense.
I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I was way too high on UCF and SMU and way too low on Rice. Mark Snyder at Marshall survived another losing season, but he's still on the hot seat this year.
Non-conference Games to Watch
* Virginia Tech at East Carolina, Nov 5 - ECU started last season with a win over VT in Charlotte. Will they get another win, this time at home?
* Texas Tech at Houston, Sept 26 - Here's to offensive fireworks from both teams. Can the combined score break 100?
* Boise St at Tulsa, Oct 14 - Two more of the best offenses square off in a Wednesday night game.
* East Carolina at West Virginia, Sept 12 - I think ECU can get a road win here even though they are 0-12 all time in Morgantown.
* Southern Miss at Louisville, Oct 10 - An old C-USA rivalry is renewed.
Projected Standings:
East:
East Carolina | 8-4 | 6-2
Southern Miss | 8-4 | 6-2
Marshall | 6-6 | 4-4
UAB | 5-7 | 4-4
UCF | 5-7 | 3-5
Memphis | 4-8 | 2-6
West:
Houston | 8-4 | 6-2
Tulsa | 8-4 | 6-2
Tulane | 6-6 | 4-4
Rice | 4-8 | 3-5
UTEP | 5-7 | 3-5
SMU | 2-10 | 1-7
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