The Favorite: I have Oregon as my favorite in the Pac-10 by far. I know there is uncertainty at the quarterback position, but that's the only real question mark for this team. Oregon has a shot to play for the national title, but it will be hard to go undefeated since the Pac-10 is so deep this year.
The Challenger: Arizona keeps improving and could make some noise this season. Arizona has been especially impressive at home lately. They've only lost five home games over the past three seasons, and the losses have been by an average of three points each. That's important with home games against Iowa, Cal, Oregon State, Washington and USC. If they could get a couple more of the close games to go their way, they could be looking at a ten win season.
The Sleeper: Washington looks ready to break out of their losing ways and make a bowl game for the first time since 2002. Last season there were growing pains under a new head coach, such as getting blasted at home by Oregon and on the road against Oregon State. But I was also impressed with wins over USC, Arizona, and Cal. With 18 returning starters, I expect them to be improved on both sides of the ball and to win more close games (2-4 last year.)
The Letdown: Some people are predicting USC to return to the top of the Pac-10 again, but I don't see it. They should sweep their non-conference but will probably struggle in conference like last year. I think they will lose at least three games in conference. I do believe we've seen the end of the dynasty.
Conference Player of the Year: Washington QB Jake Locker will have the best stats as he leads a resurgent Washington team back to the postseason for the first time in eight years.
I Wrote What?: I didn't predict the Fall of Troy in last year's preview. I expected USC to compete for the national title. Instead, they lost games by 27 and 34 points on the way to their worst season since 2001, Pete Carroll's first year.
Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Oregon State vs TCU at Arlington, Sept 4 - A matchup between a great running back and a great rush defense. Jacquizz Rodgers ran for 21 TDs last year. TCU held opponents to 80 rushing yards per game last year.
* Oregon State at Boise State, Sept 25 - The Beavers get a chance to ruin another non-AQ team's chances at a BCS bowl bid.
* Iowa at Arizona, Sept 18 - Arizona, here's your chance to earn some national recognition early in the season.
* Oregon at Tennessee, Sept 11 - This should be a statement game for Oregon despite the long trip and 100k+ fans wearing orange and singing Rocky Top.
* Nebraska at Washington, Sept 18 - Washington pushed LSU at home last season. This year they might scare Nebraska.
Projected Standings:
Oregon | 11-1 | 8-1
Arizona | 8-4 | 6-3
Oregon St | 7-5 | 6-3
USC | 9-4 | 5-4
Washington | 7-5 | 5-4
Stanford | 7-5 | 5-4
Cal | 7-5 | 4-5
UCLA | 6-6 | 4-5
Arizona St | 4-8 | 2-7
Washington St | 1-11 | 0-9
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