The Favorite: TCU didn't get nearly enough credit for what was accomplished last season, but this season is a great opportunity to earn more national attention. Last season the defense was the second best in the country, holding 12 of 13 opponents to 16 points or fewer. While Oklahoma beat them handily, TCU was still able to limit them to only 25 rushing yards. This year the schedule works out nicely with the toughest games against Clemson and BYU on the road, and Utah at home. None of those are going to be easy, but all are very winnable. TCU has a good shot at going unbeaten and making to a BCS bowl game.
The Challenger: BYU gets the nod over Utah here, because I don't think the Utes can reload that fast. BYU does have some concerns, such as a lack of experience at the offensive line and wide receiver positions. The defense should be improved, and they host the other contenders Utah and TCU. They have a great non-conference schedule with Oklahoma in Arlington for the opener, going to Tulane for a very obvious trap game, and then hosting Florida State.
The Sleeper: San Diego State could surprise some this season. With new head coach Brady Hoke and new defensive coordinator Rocky Long (who knows the conference as well as anyone), the Aztecs may be able to get turned around quickly. Also, the schedule sets up very well. They play Southern Utah, Idaho, and New Mexico State in the first five weeks, and could easily be 3-2 headed into the rest of conference play. I'm not expecting a bowl appearance, but they will probably scare a few of teams along the way.
The Letdown: Colorado State was able to exceed all expectations last year by going to and winning a bowl game. I don't think they'll be able to duplicate that success again. The quarterback, the top two running backs, and several defensive starters are gone and will be difficult to replace. Also four of their seven wins last season were by five points or less. This is still a good team, one that is very tough at home, but I think they'll be home for the postseason.
Conference Player of the Year: Max Hall (QB BYU) on offense, Jerry Hughes (DE TCU) on defense.
I Wrote What?: I missed hard on Colorado State, pegging them for a two win season in last year's preview. I also doubted Air Force, but they won eight games including five on the road.
Non-conference Games to Watch:
* TCU at Clemson, Sept 26 - TCU's biggest hurdle to an undefeated season. This game will be won in the trenches with both teams sporting nasty d-lines.
* Florida St at BYU, Sept 19 - Huge home game for BYU, can they hang with the Seminoles?
* Utah at Oregon, Sept 19 - Since I already mentioned this game in the Pac-10 preview, here's a fun fact. Utah has won eight straight bowl games, including in each of the last six seasons.
* Colorado St at Colorado, Sept 5 - Last year's game featured back-to-back kickoff returns for touchdowns, the only time I've ever seen that happen.
* BYU vs Oklahoma in Arlington, Sept 5 - The first college football game at the new Cowboys Stadium, it's one of the bigger games in the opening weekend. It would be higher on this list if I thought BYU had a better chance at winning.
Projected Standings:
TCU | 12-0 | 8-0
BYU | 9-3 | 7-1
Utah | 9-3 | 6-2
Air Force | 6-6 | 4-4
UNLV | 6-6 | 4-4
Colorado St | 5-7 | 3-5
New Mexico | 3-9 | 2-6
San Diego St | 4-8 | 1-7
Wyoming | 2-10 | 1-7
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