Rocket City Report: 2009 Sun Belt Preview

The Favorite: Troy comes in as the prohibitive favorite to win the Sun Belt again. They won the conference last season by leading in both points scored and points allowed. Always a dangerous team, just look at last year's game versus LSU when they had a 31-3 lead in the third quarter. Of course that ended with an epic comeback of LSU scoring 37 unanswered points. While Troy did lose that game, they reminded everyone that they can't be overlooked.

The Challenger: FAU was my favorite to win the conference last season, but a 1-5 start including two conference losses ended those dreams. The loss to MTSU was especially painful, as the Blue Raiders scored on a touchdown pass as time expired. The schedule is easier this time around, now the offense needs to be more crisp and minimize turnovers for them to be a contender.

The Sleeper: Arkansas State could turn some heads again this season with the second best defense and most of the offensive playmakers returning. Beating Texas A&M was huge last year. Now they need to start winning conference games on the road (0-3 last season.)

The Letdown: Louisiana-Lafayette finished with six wins for the third time in the past four seasons. Despite being eligible, they missed the post season again. Louisiana-Lafayette hasn't been bowling since the Grantland Rice Bowl in 1970, and I don't see it happening this year either. Most of their games were high scoring affairs, with only one having fewer than 50 combined points. Now with the top playmakers gone, including the school's all-time leading rusher, the offense will noticeably regress. The defense will have to step up big to prevent them from having a losing season.

Conference Player of the Year: Rusty Smith (QB FAU) puts it all together for his senior season and impresses a few NFL scouts along the way. Brandon Lang (Troy DE) deserves some recognition here too.

I Wrote What?: I was all over the place in last year's preview, predicting that FAU would win nine games and that FIU would only win one. Not my finest work.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Troy at Arkansas, Nov 14 - A late season road game against an SEC opponent. This sounds familiar.
* Mississippi St at MTSU, Oct 17 - MTSU beat Maryland at home last year, and could get another home win against the Bulldogs.
* Arkansas St at Louisville, Oct 31 - Sticking with the theme, Arkansas State knocked off Texas A&M last year, and could do the same to Louisville on Halloween.
* Kansas St at Louisiana-Lafayette, Sept 12 - The two teams played a close game last season in Manhattan. Now in Lafayette, the tables could be turned.
* FAU @ South Carolina, Sept 12 - FAU has a bye week to prepare for South Carolina, while the Gamecocks could overlook a game sandwiched between Georgia and Mississippi.