2011 Mountain West Preview

State of the MWC: The Mountain West lost two teams when Utah left for the Pac-12 and BYU declared its independence. Boise State joined the conference to make nine members for the season. In 2012, TCU will leave for the Big East and the Mountain West will add Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii. It's unclear if the conference will make any other moves. With 11 teams, they may consider adding one more team to get a championship game.

The Favorite: Boise State is the newest member, but they are the most talented. The Broncos have a great opportunity to run the table and play in a BCS bowl again. They play a solid non-conference schedule with games against Georgia, Tulsa, Toledo and former WAC and future MWC brethren Fresno State and Nevada.

The Challenger: TCU would love to win the conference in its last year as a member. The Horned Frogs lose a lot of contributors from last year's 13-0 team, including five draft picks. The game versus Boise State on November 12 will likely determine the conference title.

The Sleeper: Some may expect San Diego State to fall apart with the loss of head coach Brady Hoke. I don't expect them to become irrelevant because there is still a lot of offensive firepower and new head coach Rocky Long has a ton of experience in the Mountain West. If anyone can keep the Aztec train running, who went to its first bowl game since 1998, it's him.

The Letdown: I thought UNLV made a good hire when Bobby Hauck was brought in from Montana. He had a decent amount of talent returning in 2010, but his team was outscored by more than three touchdowns on average. The Rebels did pick up a couple of wins last season, but I don't see any more improvement this season.

Conference Player of the Year: Kellen Moore is the obvious answer here. His stats from last season were very impressive: 71.3 completion percentage, 3845 passing yards, 35 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions, and fourth in Heisman voting. He should be just as superb in his senior season.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I actually picked four teams' records correctly. I thought San Diego State would improve by two games and barely make it to the postseason. Instead SDSU improved by four games and smacked Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl to finish 9-4.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Boise State vs Georgia in Atlanta, September 3 - Boise State gets to play in front of a huge national audience in the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game.
* San Diego State at Michigan, September 24 - Brady Hoke takes on his former team, and Rocky Long takes on his former employer.
* TCU vs BYU at Arlington, October 28 - TCU plays its former conference mate at Cowboys Stadium.
* Nevada at Boise State, October 1 - Do you think Boise State will be looking for revenge on the team that ruined its perfect season last year?
* Colorado State vs Colorado at Denver, September 17 - Last year's version was a blowout, but this in-state rivalry usually produces close games.






Projected Standings:

Boise St | 11-1 | 7-0







TCU | 10-2 | 5-2







Air Force | 8-4 | 5-2







San Diego St | 8-4 | 5-2







Colorado St | 6-6 | 3-4







Wyoming | 5-7 | 2-5







New Mexico | 2-10 | 1-6







UNLV | 1-11 | 0-7

2011 Pac-12 Preview

State of the Pac-12: The Pac-10 added Utah and Colorado in the offseason to expand to twelve teams. The conference is split into North and South divisions with the championship game to be played at the home stadium of the division winner with the best overall conference record. Teams will play a nine-game conference schedule. No future expansion is expected at this time.

The Favorite (North): Oregon is coming off a 12-win season and a close loss to Auburn in the BCS National Championship Game. The Ducks beat every team in the Pac-12 by at least 11 points except for California. They should be strong again with the return of running back LaMichael James, who finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting. Oregon is my pick to host the first Pac-12 Championship Game in Autzen Stadium and could make a return appearance to the national title game.

The Favorite (South): The South is crowded with no clear favorite. I'm calling Arizona as the favorite to win the division. The schedule is killer at the beginning with games against four of the top twenty teams by October 1. If the Wildcats weather can that storm, they could be able to pile up the wins in the second half of the season.

The Challenger (North): Even though Jack Locker is gone, I think Washington could contend this season. I think head coach Steve Sarkisian is building a really good team here. Stanford would get the nod here, but I think the loss of Jim Harbaugh will put them a step below the Huskies.

The Challenger (South): Arizona State is being predicted by many to be a sleeper in the Pac-12. I don't think that they will be that much improved. But in the weaker South division, minor improvement might be enough to make them a contender.

The Sleeper: Because of the probation, I think USC is flying under the radar. Even though USC can't participate in the Pac-12 Championship or a bowl game, I think they'll have the best record in the South.

The Letdown: I don't think UCLA will take a step forward in Rick Neuheisel's fourth season. They have too many questions and not enough answers. I think they will continue to struggle with new offensive and defensive coordinators.

Conference Player of the Year: LaMichael James is a legit Heisman Trophy contender, although I should mention Andrew Luck here, the number one overall pick in next year's NFL draft.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I thought Stanford would have a similar record as in 2009. Instead the Cardinal almost ran the table, losing only once to Oregon.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Oregon vs LSU at Arlington, September 3 - As I said in the SEC Preview, this is the best non-conference game of the season. The winner of this game will be the early leader in the national title race.
* Missouri at Arizona State, September 10 - If the Sun Devils want to have a big season, then they need to win the big non-conference games at home.
* Arizona at Oklahoma State, September 8 - Participants of last year's Alamo Bowl meet in an early season matchup. Hopefully this game won't be as lopsided as last year's 36-10 affair.
* Washington at Nebraska, September 17 - These two teams split games last season. Now's the rubber match.
* Texas at UCLA, September 17 - UCLA beating Texas in Austin was one of the big surprises of last season.


Projected Standings:
North:

Oregon | 11-1 | 8-1







Washington | 7-5 | 5-4







Stanford | 8-4 | 5-4







Cal | 7-5 | 4-5







Oregon State | 5-7 | 3-6







Washington State | 3-9 | 1-8








South:

USC | 9-3 | 6-3







Arizona | 8-4 | 6-3







Arizona State | 7-5 | 5-4







Utah | 7-5 | 5-4







UCLA | 5-7 | 4-5







Colorado | 5-7 | 3-5

2011 SEC Preview

The Favorite (East): In 2010, South Carolina took advantage of a down year in the SEC East where only two teams finished with winning records after the bowl season. They were led by true freshman running back Marcus Lattimore (1197 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns) and sophomore wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (1517 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns.) Both stars return as well as senior quarterback Stephen Garcia and the top overall recruit in the country in Jadeveon Clowney is added to the mix. Steve Spurrier has built quite a team in Columbia that has to potential to stay at the top of the East division.

The Favorite (West): Alabama took a step back last year and only won ten games. The Tide had four players drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, but they still bring back ten starters to a defense that allowed fewer than 14 points per game last season. I'd be surprised if they didn't have the best defense in the country at the end of the season. The Tide will be dealing the loss of a Heisman Trophy winner and one of the nation's top receivers, as well uncertainty as to who the starting quarterback will be, but the defense will be able to carry them to the SEC Championship Game.

The Challenger (East): Georgia was a serious underachiever last season. The Bulldogs were 0-4 in close games and they lost two other games by 11 and 12 points. This season the schedule is much more manageable for two reasons. One is that most of the tougher games are at home, with the hardest road game at Tennessee. The other is that the draw from the West division is as good as possible. They miss Alabama, LSU and Arkansas in this year's schedule. I think Georgia will bounce back in a big way and they have the potential to win the East.

The Challenger (West): LSU just barely missed out on winning the West last season when they lost at Auburn by a touchdown. This season they get Auburn at home, but unfortunately they have to win on the road at Alabama if they are going to play in Atlanta. LSU needs quarterback Jordan Jefferson to improve and be consistent in his senior season. LSU did have five players taken in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, so that talent will have to be replaced.

The Sleeper: Watch out for Mississippi State. They improved dramatically in Dan Mullen's second season, capped off with a demolishing of Michigan in the Gator Bowl. With home games against LSU, South Carolina and Alabama, they could be a surprise contender.

The Letdown: After going 14-0 with a BCS National Championship, Auburn is going to take a step back. With only six returning starters and playing the stacked West division, it will probably be a pretty big step back. Missing the postseason the year after winning a ring is a definite possibility.

Conference Player of the Year: It's a battle between two running backs, Trent Richardson of Alabama and Marcus Lattimore of South Carolina.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, the worst thing I wrote was expecting Florida to finish 11-1. Life was tough for the Gators in the post Tim Tebow era, losing in the Swamp thrice and falling to in-state rival Florida State for the first time since 2003.

Non-Conference Games to Watch
* LSU vs Oregon at Arlington, September 3 - This is the best non-conference game of the season. It's a great way to start the college football season between two top ten teams.
* Georgia vs Boise State at Atlanta, September 3 - This could be the second best non-conference game of the season. It's another stellar matchup on opening weekend.
* Arkansas vs Texas A&M at Arlington, October 1 - Cowboys Stadium is loaded with quality non-conference games. Arkansas has won both games here.
* Alabama at Penn State, September 10 - Two storied programs meet for the second season in a row, this time at Happy Valley.
* Florida State at Florida, November 26 - Florida had won six straight in this annual series until 2010. With Florida State continuing to improve, they could be starting a streak of their own.


Projected Standings:
East:

South Carolina | 10-2 | 6-2







Georgia | 9-3 | 5-3







Florida | 6-6 | 3-5







Kentucky | 7-5 | 3-5







Tennessee | 6-6 | 2-6







Vanderbilt | 4-8 | 0-8








West:

Alabama | 11-1 | 7-1







LSU | 10-2 | 7-1







Arkansas | 9-3 | 6-2







Mississippi St | 9-3 | 5-3







Auburn | 7-5 | 3-5







Mississippi | 4-8 | 1-7

2011 Sun Belt Preview

State of the Sun Belt: The Sun Belt was untouched by the conference alignment last year. Thanks to the exodus of top teams from the WAC, 2011 will likely be the last season where the Sun Belt is the worst FBS conference. South Alabama will join the Sun Belt as a football member in 2013.

The Favorite: FIU won its first conference title, attended its first bowl game and earned its first bowl victory last season. With most of important contributors back, I'm calling for FIU to make it back-to-back Sun Belt championships.

The Challenger: Troy is always going to be in the discussion for top dog in the Sun Belt. The Trojans have won outright or shared the conference title for the past five years. They won their second ever bowl game last season.

The Sleeper: I was not a fan of Louisiana-Monroe firing Charlie Weatherbie and hiring Todd Berry, but the move worked out better than I expected. The WarHawks won five games and barely lost two others. The WarHawks could be even better this season, especially with three brand new coaches in the conference.

The Letdown: With FAU opening a new stadium and Howard Schnellenberger entering his final season, some may expect the Owls to send him out on a high note. I'm not buying into it though. I doubt FAU will be playing in the postseason.

Conference Player of the Year: Troy's quarterback Corey Robinson had a great season in 2010 (3726 yards and 28 touchdowns) despite being a redshirt freshman. He's probably going to get better as he gains more experience. Also pay attention to two running backs who finished last season with spectacular stats on bad teams: Lance Dunbar of North Texas (1553 yards and 13 touchdowns) and Bobby Rainey of Western Kentucky (1649 yards and 15 touchdowns.)

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I missed badly on MTSU for the second straight season. I expected them to win ten games, but instead they finished with a losing record after getting beaten in the GoDaddy.com bowl. I also was surprised by FIU's breakout season.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Troy at Clemson, September 3 - Troy hasn't beaten a BCS school since upsetting Oklahoma State in 2007, but they have come close a few times. Here's the best opportunity this season.
* UCF at FIU, September 17 - FIU hosts fellow Florida school UCF. A win here would do great things for the program.
* Georgia Tech at MTSU, September 10 - MTSU knocked off Maryland in "The Skillet" in 2008. The Blue Raiders could collect another ACC scalp at home in this game.
* Western Kentucky vs Kentucky at Nashville, September 1 - Two Bluegrass State schools travel a little south to play in one of the first games of the season.
* Indiana at North Texas, September 24 - Two schools breaking in new head coaches trying to get their tenures started on the right foot.




FIU | 7-5 | 6-2







Troy | 7-5 | 6-2







MTSU | 6-6 | 5-3







FAU | 4-8 | 4-4







Louisiana-Monroe | 5-7 | 4-4







Arkansas St | 5-7 | 4-4







North Texas | 3-9 | 3-5







Western Kentucky | 3-9 | 2-6







Louisiana-Lafayette | 3-9 | 2-6

2011 WAC Preview

State of the WAC: Boise State moves to the Mountain West Conference this season, and next season Fresno State, Hawaii and Nevada will do the same. The WAC has extended invitations to and received acceptance from five schools, although only two of them play football. Texas State and UTSA will make the move up to FBS in 2012, giving the WAC seven football members. I believe the long term viability of this conference is in doubt, and it's possible that all members will be relegated to the FCS.

The Favorite: Hawaii and Nevada tied Boise State for first place last season, sharing the conference title. Nevada is my favorite this year, who hope to continue the momentum from a great season. Nevada has one of the crazier schedules in the country, with its first home game on October 8th. After that, six of the final eight games are at home in Reno. Hosting Fresno State and Hawaii gives Nevada a leg up on the other WAC contenders.

The Challengers: Hawaii and Fresno State are very similar to Nevada, and I wouldn't be surprised if any one of them won the conference. Hawaii was much better than I expected last season, winning ten games. Hawaii has to replace its top two rushers and four of its top five receivers. Replacing those skill players plus four starters on the offensive line will be key to the Warriors' success. Fresno State defeated Cincinnati and Illinois at home last year, and the Bulldogs have three more chances to beat AQ teams this year. They host Mississippi and play California in the opener at Candlestick Park, as well as traveling to Nebraska.

The Sleeper: Louisiana Tech has a chance to make some noise in the WAC this season. The Bulldogs just missed out on being bowl eligible last season due to a single point loss to Southern Miss and a six-point loss to Fresno State. The non-conference schedule could be a stumbling block, with road games at all three Mississippi schools and hosting Houston.

The Letdown: After two seasons, I'm done calling Utah State my sleeper team. The Aggies should be able to get to a bowl game based on their schedule alone. Instead they'll probably finish with four wins again like they have the past two seasons under Gary Andersen.

Conference Player of the Year: Hawaii's QB Bryant Moniz threw for over 5000 yards and 39 touchdowns last season. He will likely put up the best numbers in the conference in his senior season.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview I thought Hawaii would start a downward turn three years removed from the June Jones era. Instead they won ten games and shared the conference title. I was within two games of every other team's final record, but I missed badly on the Warriors.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Fresno State vs California at San Francisco, September 3 - Fresno State is 2-0 all-time against California, while the Bears are trying to rebound from their first losing season in Jeff Tedford's tenure.
* Colorado at Hawaii, September 3 - Hawaii can ruin Colorado's first game as a member of the Pac-12 with a win in the opener.
* Nevada at Boise State, October 1 - Nevada beat the Broncos for the first time since 1998 last year. Can they make it two in a row?
* Houston at Louisiana Tech, September 17 - If Louisiana Tech wants to go bowling, winning non-conference games at home is key.
* Mississippi at Fresno State, October 1 - The Rebels won this matchup last season despite the fact that they lost to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt previously. The Bulldogs will be looking for revenge.


Projected Standings:

Nevada | 8-4 | 6-1







Hawaii | 9-4 | 5-2







Fresno St | 7-6 | 5-2







Louisiana Tech | 6-6 | 5-2







Idaho | 5-7 | 3-4







Utah St | 4-8 | 2-5







San Jose St | 1-11 | 1-7







New Mexico St | 2-11 | 1-7