Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
California vs. Air Force
Fort Worth, Texas
December 31
12:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
California
Record: 6-6 (3-6)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Tennessee (9-4)
Worst Loss: Washington (4-9)
The Rundown: California had a great beginning to the season, winning the first five games and being ranked as high as #2 in the country. During that stretch, the Golden Bears picked up good wins against Tennessee and Oregon. The second half was the polar opposite. They lost six of their last seven games, with the only win by a field goal over Washington State. The defense was relatively constant all season, but the offense was much better in the first half. California scored over 100 points in the first half more than in the second half (219-114).
Air Force
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: Utah (8-4)
Worst Loss: Navy (8-4)
The Rundown: Air Force is in my opinion the most surprising team in the country this year. Previous head coach Fisher DeBerry retired, and nobody knew what to expect. Troy Calhoun, the OC of the Houston Texans and Air Force alum, took over as the new head coach and led them to their first bowl game since 2002 and their first nine win season since 2000.
The Matchup: This game could easily go either way. California is obviously the more talented team, but they haven’t been living up to expectations since September. Air Force has had a great season, but like California their best wins were in September. The team that shows up to play and wants it the most will win this game.
The Pick: California
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Roady's Humanitarian Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State
Boise, Idaho
December 31
2:00 pm Eastern
ESPN2
Georgia Tech
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 1-5
Best Win: Clemson (9-3)
Worst Loss: Maryland (6-6)
The Rundown: Georgia Tech had the talent and the schedule to have a huge year, but underachieved so much that head coach Chan Gailey was fired after the regular season. Former Navy head coach Paul Johnson was brought in to fill the vacancy. Georgia Tech only beat one team with a winning record all season, a 13-3 victory over Clemson at home. The Yellow Jackets were beat soundly at home by three good teams: Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Georgia. The Georgia loss was the sixth in a row in that rivalry. Defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta will coach them in the bowl game.
Fresno State
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-4
Best Win: Nevada (6-6)
Worst Loss: Texas A&M (7-5)
The Rundown: After last season’s disappointment, Fresno State is back to their winning ways. The offense was able to solve its problems and scored over 100 points more than last season (9.25 more points per game). Fresno State only beat one bowl team (Nevada), but pushed Texas A&M to three overtimes before losing when they failed to convert a two-point conversion. They also played Hawaii close, only losing by a touchdown.
The Matchup: Fresno State thrives on games like this where they have the opportunity to show everyone how good they are. Georgia Tech is in the middle of a coaching change and coming off a very lackluster year. Georgia Tech will have to find a way to get up for this game or Fresno will blow them away.
The Pick: Fresno State
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Brut Sun Bowl
South Florida vs. Oregon
El Paso, Texas
December 31
2:00 pm Eastern
CBS
South Florida
Record: 9-3 (4-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: West Virginia (10-2)
Worst Loss: Rutgers (7-5)
The Rundown: South Florida is growing into a Big East powerhouse and is beginning to get a lot of national attention. The Bulls won their first six games, including victories over Auburn, West Virginia, and UCF (combined record: 28-9). South Florida stumbled at Rutgers on a short week and then lost to Connecticut at Cincinnati. The three losses were by a combined 15 points, and all were to bowl teams. South Florida bounced back to win the last three, but it wasn’t enough to get into the Big East title race. The offense was greatly improved this season, averaging almost 13 more points per game, and the defense continued to be fast and strong.
Oregon
Record: 8-4 (5-4)
Record against bowl teams: 5-3
Best Win: USC (10-2)
Worst Loss: Arizona (5-7)
The Rundown: For the first nine games of the season, Oregon was arguably one of the best teams in the country and QB Dennis Dixon was the frontrunner for the Heisman by the end of that stretch. Those nine games included five wins over bowl teams including Arizona State and USC who both finished at 10-2. The only loss was against California by a touchdown. When Dennis Dixon was lost to a season-ending injury, this was simply not the same team. They lost the last three games, including any shot at a national or conference title. The lowest point was when they were shut out by a very average UCLA team.
The Matchup: I’ve dubbed this game the “What might have been?” bowl. I can’t help but wonder what might have been in Dixon had never been hurt. This Oregon team could very well be playing for in the National Championship game. And what would have been in South Florida had gotten a couple of balls bounce their way during that three game losing streak. They were 1-3 in close games. With a little more luck, they could also be playing in the National Championship game. The matchup itself all comes down to the fact that this Oregon team just can’t figure out how to win games without its star QB.
The Pick: South Florida
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Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs. Florida State
Nashville, Tennessee
December 31
4:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Kentucky
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: LSU (11-2)
Worst Loss: South Carolina (6-6)
The Rundown: This Kentucky team had a huge first half of the season, starting 6-1 including a triple overtime shocker where they knocked off top-ranked LSU. They also picked up good wins against instate rival Louisville, Sun Belt champion FAU, and Arkansas. The Wildcats were only able to win one more game out of the last five, including falling to rival Tennessee by a two point conversion in the fourth overtime period. Kentucky was led by QB Andre Woodson to have the fourth highest scoring offense in the SEC, scoring over 10 more points per game than last season.
Florida State
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 4-4
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: Miami (5-7)
The Rundown: Florida State had a slightly disappointing year, as they were expected to contend in the ACC. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher was brought in to improve the offense, but scoring actually went down on his watch. In fact they only scored 12 points more than their opponents all season. Fisher was still rewarded with an agreement that he will replace head coach Bobby Bowden when he eventually retires. Florida State did have a difficult schedule, as they played eight bowl teams. They split those games, but they also lost to 5-7 Miami. The Seminoles will probably be remembered most this year for ruining Boston College’s chance at a perfect season. An academic scandal has recently rocked Florida State, and 36 players will not be going to the bowl game due to either suspension or injury. Many of these players could also lose playing time next season.
The Matchup: Florida State usually shows up big in bowl games, but the thin numbers can’t be ignored. Kentucky was able to dismantle a pretty good Clemson team in this same bowl game last year, and I expect a similar result again this year.
The Pick: Kentucky
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Insight Bowl
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State
Tempe, Arizona
December 31
6:00 pm Eastern
NFL Network
Indiana
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Purdue (7-5)
Worst Loss: Northwestern (6-6)
The Rundown: Indiana tragically lost head coach Terry Hoeppner in the offseason, but were able to fulfill his promise of a “13th game.” Bill Lynch took over the team and led them to their first bowl game since 1993. The schedule worked out nicely since they missed both Michigan and Ohio State. The only Big Ten team with a winning record that Indiana beat was Purdue in the final game with a bowl berth on the line. Both the offense and the defense put up much better numbers than last season. A couple of close losses against Penn State and Northwestern prevented an even bigger year for the Hoosiers.
Oklahoma State
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-5
Best Win: Texas Tech (8-4)
Worst Loss: Texas A&M (7-5)
The Rundown: Much like last season, Oklahoma State did just enough to get to a bowl game. The Cowboys had road woes all season, only winning at Nebraska and Baylor. Troy was able to upset them easily in the third week of the season. They lost close games against Texas A&M and Texas, but also won close games against Texas Tech and Kansas State. Some had predicted a big season for Oklahoma State, but the offense and defense actually put up worse numbers than last season.
The Matchup: This Oklahoma State team just never lived up to the high expectations it had. Indiana, on the other hand, exceeded all expectations and had a wonderful year. The good fortune they’ve had all season will continue into the bowl game.
The Pick: Indiana
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Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Clemson vs. Auburn
Atlanta, Georgia
December 31
7:30 pm Eastern
ESPN
Clemson
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Wake Forest (8-4)
Worst Loss: Georgia Tech (7-5)
The Rundown: Clemson had another successful season, but just missed a chance to play in the ACC Championship game when they lost to Boston College by a field goal. Clemson picked up good wins against Florida State in the opener and Wake Forest. They also hung 70 points on MAC champion Central Michigan and beat instate rival South Carolina. QB Cullen Harper had a great season in his first one as a starter, and he challenged Boston College’s Matt Ryan for best passer in the conference.
Auburn
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Mississippi St (7-5)
The Rundown: Auburn had another good year under head coach Tommy Tuberville. They won eight games, including the sixth straight victory over rival Alabama. They lost four games, but three were by six points or fewer, and one was in overtime. All four losses were to bowl teams. The three wins over bowl teams were all by a touchdown or less, but two of them were on the road. The Tigers split the six close games they played in.
The Matchup: This game is one of the best matchups of the bowl season and is one that I’m looking forward to the most. It’s also one of the most difficult to predict. Both head coaches were rumored to fill the Arkansas vacancy, but both stuck with their current positions and were given extensions. This game could easily go either way, but Clemson gets the nod since I think they are building towards a huge 2008 season.
The Pick: Clemson
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Outback Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Tampa, Florida
January 1, 2008
11:00 am Eastern
ESPN
Wisconsin
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: Michigan (8-4)
Worst Loss: Penn State (8-4)
The Rundown: Wisconsin had a good season, but struggles on the road prevented any shot at the Big Ten title. Wisconsin lost to Illinois, Penn State, and Ohio State on the road. The other two road games were close wins against bad teams. The Badgers had one of the best defenses last year, but that was not the case this year. Instead of being the best defense in the conference, it was much more toward the middle of the pack this season.
Tennessee
Record: 9-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 5-4
Best Win: Georgia (10-2)
Worst Loss: Alabama (6-6)
The Rundown: Tennessee will be playing in their second straight Outback Bowl after representing the SEC East in the conference championship game. They lost that game to LSU, one of four losses on the season. The other three losses were on the road to bowl teams, but two of those teams finished just 6-6. The Volunteers had great success in close games, winning three in the regular season including two in overtime. The game against Kentucky went into four overtime periods and ended when Kentucky was unable to convert a two point conversion attempt. The defense had trouble all season, finishing only tenth in the conference in points allowed. Four times they gave up 40+ points (1-3), compared to last season when they never gave up any more than 33 points in one game.
The Matchup: Both of these teams won nine games, but neither did so very impressively. Tennessee did not play well in this bowl last year against Penn State, but that shouldn’t be the case again. As long as they are able to play as well as they are capable of, they should get the win.
The Pick: Tennessee
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AT&T Cotton Bowl
Missouri vs. Arkansas
Dallas, Texas
January 1, 2008
11:30 am Eastern
FOX
Missouri
Record: 11-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 5-2
Best Win: Kansas (11-1)
Worst Losses: Oklahoma (11-2) twice
The Rundown: Missouri made it the Big 12 Championship game by beating Kansas in the regular season finale and were just one win away from going to the National Championship game. Some highlights of the season include beating two BCS Bowl bound teams plus three other bowl teams. They were the only team to beat Kansas. Their Achilles heel was the Sooners of Oklahoma. Twice they beat the Tigers, first to ruin a chance at a perfect season, and then to prevent them from winning the conference. In my opinion, Missouri should definitely be playing in Orange Bowl instead of Kansas. They deserve the BCS bid instead of just a trip to the Cotton Bowl.
Arkansas
Record: 8-4 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: LSU (11-2)
Worst Loss: Alabama (6-6)
The Rundown: Arkansas had an up and down season marked by outstanding play by RB Darren McFadden, but several losses against good teams. They obviously got an elite win over LSU in the regular season finale, but they needed three overtimes to get it. The only other bowl team they beat was Mississippi State. Arkansas did lose games to Alabama and Auburn by a total of five points, so they were also really close to a ten win season. Head coach Houston Nutt was offered an extension after the season ended, but due to restlessness within the fanbase he chose to resign. He was hired soon afterward by Mississippi to replace Ed Orgeron. Atlanta Falcons head coach Booby Petrino was brought in to fill the vacancy.
The Matchup: Arkansas was overmatched before their head coach left. You can never count a team with McFadden and Felix Jones in the backfield, but they will have their collective hands full with Missouri. QB Chase Daniel will lead Missouri to their first ever 12-win season.
The Pick: Missouri
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Konica Minolta Gator Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Virginia
Jacksonville, Florida
January 1, 2008
1:00 pm Eastern
CBS
Texas Tech
Record: 8-4 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Oklahoma (11-2)
Worst Loss: Oklahoma State (6-6)
The Rundown: Texas Tech had another good year under head coach Mike Leach, but a couple of bad losses kept it from being a great year. Losses to Oklahoma State and Colorado by a combined nine points kept the Red Raiders out of the Big 12 Championship and potentially a BCS bowl. Texas Tech has had eight straight winning seasons under Leach, but he hasn’t been able to take them to a championship game yet. Tech had great breakout season by redshirt freshman WR Michael Crabtree who had 1861 yards and 21 touchdowns. They did get a huge win over Oklahoma, knocking them out of the national title hunt.
Virginia
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Connecticut (9-3)
Worst Loss: Wyoming (5-7)
The Rundown: Virginia had an interesting season, and it’s hard to get a good read on just how good they are. They beat four out of the five bowl teams they played, but also had bad losses to Wyoming and NC State. Also of the nine wins, six were by five or fewer points. All four wins against bowl team were close, including three by a single point each. That makes their worst case record 3-9. The Cavaliers have been getting lucky all season, who knows if that will carry on to the bowl game or not.
The Matchup: I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas Tech wins this game in a walk, or if Virginia wins on a last second field goal. The only thing that would surprise me would be a Virginia blowout.
The Pick: Texas Tech
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Capital One Bowl
Michigan vs. Florida
Orlando, Florida
January 1, 2008
1:00 pm Eastern
ABC
Florida
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Tennessee (9-4)
Worst Loss: Auburn (8-4)
The Rundown: Florida followed up its National Championship with another winning season. The only team that really beat them all season was Georgia. The losses to Auburn and LSU were both close games. The Gators didn’t really get an elite win except for Tennessee, but QB Tim Tebow did win the Heisman trophy.
Michigan
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Illinois (9-3)
Worst Loss: Appalachian State (FCS)
The Rundown: Michigan was a preseason contender for the national title, but an opening day loss to FCS member Appalachian State killed that dream. The next week they were lit up by Oregon as they still didn’t have any answer to the spread offense. Then they ripped off an eight game winning streak before losing the last two games. The disappointing season led to head coach Lloyd Carr turning in his resignation. They hired former West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez to replace Carr.
The Matchup: This could be one of the most lopsided bowl games of the entire season. The team on Michigan’s schedule that most resembles Florida was Oregon. Oregon won that game 39-7 at the Big House. Now Michigan won’t have home field advantage or their head coach. Expect Florida to win without any problems.
The Pick: Florida
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Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC
Pasadena, California
January 1, 2008
4:30 pm Eastern
ABC
Illinois
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 5-2
Best Win: Ohio State (11-1)
Worst Loss: Iowa (6-6)
The Rundown: Illinois had a gigantic turnaround with a seven game improvement over last season. They went from 2-10 a year ago to 9-3 and a BCS bowl berth. The Illini were a questionable recipient of a BCS bid, but the powers that be wanted to have the traditional Pac 10 – Big Ten matchup in the Rose Bowl. Illinois’ best win was obviously against Ohio State to become the only team to defeat the Buckeyes in the regular season. They beat five bowl teams total, but three of them were by a touchdown or less. The three losses were close by a combined total of 20 points.
USC
Record: 10-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Arizona State (10-2)
Worst Loss: Stanford (4-8)
The Rundown: USC did win ten games and won the conference, but as one of the most talented teams in the country anything other than playing in the National Championship game has to be a disappointment. USC was victim to one of the worst losses of the season when they were beat at home by a Stanford team that finished with four wins. The Stanford loss was by a single point, and the other loss was at Oregon by a touchdown. While not necessarily their fault, the Trojans played a relatively soft schedule. They only played three teams with winning records, going 2-1 in those games. Road games to Notre Dame and Nebraska looked much more interesting in the preseason than they turned out to be. The offense and the defense put up similar numbers to last season, which explains the similar results.
The Matchup: Regardless of how much improved Illinois is this season, I’m still a little skeptical of Ron Zook as a head coach. I have a hard time believing he will be able to match wits against Pete Carroll on the opposite sideline. I know that USC has had its struggles this season, but I fell confident they will make a strong showing in the bowl game.
The Pick: USC
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Allstate Sugar Bowl
Hawaii vs. Georgia
New Orleans, Louisiana
January 1, 2008
8:30 pm Eastern
FOX
Hawaii
Record: 12-0 (8-0)
Record against bowl teams: 3-0
Best Win: Boise State (10-2)
Worst Loss: N/A
The Rundown: Hawaii is the second straight WAC team to finish undefeated and break into the BCS but not play for a national title. I’m still amazed that a two-loss team will play for it all instead of an unbeaten team. The Warriors did have problems with a soft non-conference schedule and winning five close games. The OOC include two FCS teams, a two-win team (UNLV), and a four-win team (Washington). They were also pushed to overtime by two 5-7 teams, although both were on the road. Hawaii finished 3-0 against bowl teams including an impressive win over ten-win Boise State. The Warriors again had one of the top offenses in the nation and were led by Heisman candidate QB Colt Brennan.
Georgia
Record: 10-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-1
Best Win: Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: South Carolina (6-6)
The Rundown: Georgia had great season with double digit wins, but were arguably overrated for certain reasons. Everyone seems to forget about the Bulldogs problems on the road. They needed overtime to beat Alabama (6-6), lost by three touchdowns to Tennessee, and only beat Vanderbilt (5-7) by a field goal. The only good road win was against instate rival Georgia Tech, who they beat 31-17. Couple the road issues with a loss at home to a mediocre South Carolina (6-6) team, and you have to wonder how good this team is. The Bulldogs did finish strong, winning their last five games against teams that finished with winning records. The only two really good wins they picked up were against Florida on a neutral site and Auburn at home.
The Matchup: Probably the most intriguing bowl game of the season is the Sugar Bowl. Hawaii hasn’t played an opponent of Georgia’s caliber yet this season, but they haven’t lost yet either. With Utah and Boise State winning BCS bowls previously, Hawaii is looking to be the latest non-BCS team to finish undefeated. Georgia is playing very well lately too and can’t be discounted. It will be interesting to see how well their defense can contain the high octane Hawaii passing attack. Hopefully this game doesn’t disappoint the high expectations I have for it.
The Pick: Hawaii
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