Bowl Picks for January 2-7

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Glendale, Arizona
January 2, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX


Oklahoma
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Wins: Missouri (11-2) twice
Worst Loss: Colorado (6-6)

The Rundown: Oklahoma had another big season, winning the Big 12 title and will be going to Fiesta Bowl. They beat six bowl teams along the way, including four who won nine or more games. The two losses were on the road by a combined total of 10 points to bowl teams. The offense was second in the Big 12 in points scored and the defense was second in the Big 12 in points allowed. A late loss in the season to Texas Tech kept them out of the National Championship game, but they were able to show up strong and dominate Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. They were led by QB Sam Bradford, who set the NCAA freshman record for touchdown passes with 34.


West Virginia
Record: 10-2 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-1
Best Win: Cincinnati (9-3)
Worst Loss: Pittsburgh (5-7)

The Rundown: Going into the final weekend of the regular season, it seemed all but guaranteed that West Virginia was going to the National Championship game. All that stood in their way was a home game against a Pittsburgh team with a losing record. Pitt was able to get the win and send the Mountaineers to the Fiesta Bowl instead. The only other loss was a South Florida by eight points. Along the way they beat six bowl teams, including three on the road. In their 10 wins, they never scored fewer than 28 points. In their losses, they scored only 13 and 9 points. After the regular season, head coach Rich Rodriguez left to take the Michigan vacancy. At this posting, the West Virginia head coach position has not been filled.

The Matchup: Oklahoma is playing very well right now while West Virginia is reeling from a bad loss to end the season. West Virginia is also without their head coach for this game. Both teams have high scoring offenses and stingy defenses, but I think Oklahoma is a little better on both sides of the ball.


The Pick: Oklahoma



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FedEx Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Miami, Florida
January 3, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX


Virginia Tech
Record: 11-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: Boston College (10-3)

The Rundown: Virginia Tech won the ACC title and is going to the Orange Bowl. Both of the losses on the season were to teams that won ten games each. They beat six bowl teams along the way, including earning a split with Boston College in the conference championship game. They were beat soundly in the second week of the season by LSU, but they have continuously improved since that game to become one of the top ten teams in the country. The last five games were all wins, and four were against bowl teams.


Kansas
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Texas A&M (7-5)
Worst Loss: Missouri (11-2)

The Rundown: Kansas was one of the most surprising teams in the country this year. They won their first 11 games before falling to Missouri in the finale. They didn’t play a tough schedule, playing only five bowl teams. They beat four of those teams, including two with 6-6 records. That means they were only 2-1 against teams with winning records. They were the highest scoring team in the Big 12, averaging more than 44 points per game. The defense was also impressive, allowing a conference low 16 points per game. Kansas is still a questionable BCS team, and I think Missouri was the more deserving team.


The Matchup: Kansas played one elite team this season and was beat with relative ease. Virginia Tech is coming off an elite win over Boston College. The VT defense should be able to shut down the high scoring Kansas offense. This game could be disappointing for what is normally a great bowl game.


The Pick: Virginia Tech



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International Bowl
Rutgers vs. Ball State
Toronto, Ontario
January 5, 2008
Noon Eastern
ESPN2


Rutgers
Record: 7-5 (3-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Louisville (6-6)

The Rundown: Rutgers was supposed to be a contender for the Big East title, but instead finished with a losing record in conference play. Rutgers only beat two bowl teams, Navy and South Florida on a short week. They played four close games, earning a split in those games. The main difference between last season when they won 11 games and this season when they won seven games is the defense. The defense is allowing 7.5 more points per games this season.


Ball State
Record: 7-5 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Navy (8-4)
Worst Loss: Miami Ohio (6-7)

The Rundown: Ball State was one of the better teams in the MAC and will be playing in their first bowl game since 1996. Ball State has never won a bowl game, losing the only three in the program’s history. Navy was the only bowl team they beat, one of two common opponents with Rutgers. The other common opponent was Buffalo, and both teams in the International Bowl won both of those games. Ball State lost two games this season by a single point, so their best case record was 9-3. They also lost three close games, so they also could have finished 4-8 easily.


The Matchup: As long as Rutgers is prepared and shows up to this game, they should be able to win the game as they are the better team.


The Pick: Rutgers



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GMAC Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa
Mobile, Alabama
January 6, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN


Bowling Green
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 0-2
Best Win: Buffalo (5-7)
Worst Loss: Ohio (6-6)

The Rundown: Bowling Green finished with the best overall record in the conference, but didn’t play in the conference championship game because Miami (Ohio) owned the tiebreaker. Instead they will be the only MAC East team to play in the postseason. The defense put up similar numbers as last season, but the offense was greatly improved. They went from averaging 19.5 points per game last year to 32 this year.


Tulsa
Record: 9-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: BYU (10-2)
Worst Loss: UTEP (4-8)

The Rundown: Tulsa went to its second conference championship game in three years, this time under first year head coach Todd Graham. They had a huge win against a great BYU team, but the only other bowl team they beat was Houston. That Houston game decided the C-USA West division. The only bad loss was against UTEP on the road by a single point. The offense was the highest scoring team in the C-USA, averaging almost 40 points per game.


The Matchup: These are similar teams as they both score a lot and both give up almost as many points. Tulsa scores more and should be able to light up the Ball State defense.


The Pick: Tulsa



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Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU vs. Ohio State
New Orleans, Louisiana
January 7, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX


LSU
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Win: Virginia Tech (11-2)
Worst Loss: Kentucky (7-5)

The Rundown: LSU was a very interesting team to watch this season. After the first few games, it was obvious that the Tigers were one of the best and most talented teams in the country. When they were ranked #1, they lost in triple overtime to Kentucky. They won the next four games before losing in triple overtime again, this time to Arkansas at home in the regular season finale. They beat Tennessee in the SEC Championship and became the first two-loss team to make it to the BCS National Championship game. After the first three games, LSU was outscoring their opponents 137-7. The next rest of the season was very different, as they played in six close games out of ten.


Ohio State
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 5-1
Best Win: Wisconsin (9-3)
Worst Loss: Illinois (9-3)

The Rundown: Ohio State seemingly backed into the BCS National Championship game, as teams ahead of them kept losing in the two weeks after the Buckeyes’ season was over. Ohio State only lost one game, and that was to Illinois by a touchdown at home. Ohio State beat five bowl teams, but only one that won more than eight games (Wisconsin). The defense was one of the best in the country, allowing less than 11 points per game. They held their opponents to a touchdown or less in 7 of 12 games. The only team to score more than 17 points against them was in the game they lost.


The Matchup: Ohio State got embarrassed in last year’s game, but I don’t expect that to happen twice in a row. On the other hand, LSU has dominated its past two bowl opponents under head coach Les Miles. Ohio State should play much better this time around, especially the defense, but it will not be enough against a healthy and prepared LSU squad.

The Pick: LSU