Bowl Picks for December 20-23

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Utah vs. Navy
December 20
9:00 pm Eastern
ESPN

Utah
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: New Mexico (8-4)
Worst Loss: UNLV (2-10)

The Rundown: The season started out with a very strange first four game set that included a 44-6 victory over a ranked UCLA team and a 27-0 loss against UNLV. Injuries hit the offense hard during that stretch, and it was impossible to know which team would show up week to week. The later two-thirds of the season were much more consistent. Utah ripped off a seven game win streak that gave them an outside shot at the Mountain West crown. In their final regular season game, the Utes went on the road to face a BYU team that was unbeaten in conference. Utah pulled ahead with 1:34 left in the fourth quarter, but BYU was able to answer back with a game-winning touchdown with 38 seconds left on the clock. Utah had won seven straight before pushing BYU to the limit, so this is a good team that is playing extremely well right now.


Navy
Record: 8-4
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Air Force (9-3)
Worst Loss: Delaware (FCS)

The Rundown: Navy is headed to its fifth straight bowl game, although this time it will be without head coach Paul Johnson. He accepted an offer to be the head coach at Georgia Tech after the regular season. Ken Niumatalolo, the assistant head coach and offensive line coach for Navy, was promoted to fill the vacancy. Niumatalolo plans to run the same triple-option offense that Johnson had so much success with. Navy won big games against the other two service academies and Notre Dame this season, but the Air Force game was the only win against a team with a winning record.


The Matchup: Navy will look the same as they have all season, but Johnson was a special coach. It will be very hard for the Midshipmen to continue their success, starting with this bowl game.


The Pick: Utah



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R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Memphis vs. FAU
December 21
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN2

Memphis
Record: 7-5 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-2
Best Win: Southern Miss (7-5)
Worst Loss: Mississippi (3-9)

The Rundown: According to rogerspoll.com Memphis played the weakest schedule of all the FBS teams this season. Even still, they won four games by just a field goal and another games by a single point. Worst case, this team is only 2-10 against the easiest schedule in the country. Memphis also lost two games by a combined six points, so best case they are 9-3. The Tigers are also 0-2 versus Sun Belt opponents this season, and they will be facing an FAU squad that is superior to both MTSU and Arkansas St.


FAU
Record: 7-5 (6-1)
Record against bowl teams: 0-4
Best Win: Troy (8-4)
Worst Loss: Louisiana Monroe (6-6)

The Rundown: It was not surprising that FAU had such a good year as I picked them to finish second in the conference. What was surprising is that they were able to beat a very strong Troy team in the regular season finale to claim the Sun Belt title. The Owls are led by head coach Howard Schnellenberger, arguably the best coach in the conference, or at least the only one that has won a National Championship. FAU is in its seventh year of playing football and just its third year at the FBS level, making it the youngest program to ever be invited to a bowl game.


The Matchup: Neither one of these teams had an impressive season, but both did enough to get to the postseason. This game is one of the most difficult bowl matchups to predict. It’s hard to pick a team that hasn’t beaten a Sun Belt team in two chances this season, but it’s just as hard to pick a team in its first bowl game and might suffer from the “just happy to be there” syndrome. The pick goes to the better head coach.


The Pick: FAU



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Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati
Birmingham, Alabama
December 22
1:00 pm Eastern
ESPN2

Southern Miss
Record: 7-5 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 1-4
Best Win: East Carolina (7-5)
Worst Loss: Rice (3-9)

The Rundown: Southern Miss was expected to contend for the C-USA title in the preseason, but ended up fourth in the East standings with only one win over a team with a winning record. Somehow the Eagles won all of their road conference games, but only won a single conference home game. Head coach Jeff Bower resigned at the end of the season, although it seems he was being pushed out by the athletic director. Bower will still coach the Golden Eagles in the bowl game. Oklahoma State’s offensive coordinator Larry Fedora was hired to replace Bower.


Cincinnati
Record: 9-3 (4-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Pittsburgh (5-7)

The Rundown: Cincinnati had a huge first year under new head coach Brian Kelly. The Bearcats had good wins over South Florida (9-3), Connecticut (9-3), Oregon St (8-4), and Rutgers (7-5). The three losses were all by a touchdown or less. Big East champion West Virginia only beat them by five points. This is a very good Cincinnati squad that probably thinks it should be playing in bigger bowl game, but I expect to do more than just go through the motions.


The Matchup: The most telling stat could be the teams’ opposite records against bowl teams. Cincinnati hasn’t had any trouble beating good teams while Southern Miss obviously has. Cincinnati is simply the better team here, so I don’t think they will have any trouble handling a Southern Miss team in the middle of a coaching transition.


The Pick: Cincinnati



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New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. New Mexico
Albuquerque, New Mexico
December 22
4:30 pm Eastern
ESPN

Nevada
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 0-3
Best Win: Louisiana Tech (5-7)
Worst Loss: San Jose St (5-7)

The Rundown: Nevada fielded a young and inexperienced team this season, but they did just enough to make it a bowl game. Other than being blown out by Nebraska in the opener, the Wolf Pack never lost by more than eight points. Boise St needed four overtime periods and Hawaii needed a last second field goal to get wins over Nevada. The Wolf Pack never did get a signature win this season, but they get another chance in the bowl game.


New Mexico
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Air Force (9-3)
Worst Loss: UTEP (4-8)

The Rundown: New Mexico has put together another successful but largely unnoticed season as has been typical in the ten-year Rocky Long era. New Mexico played four teams with winning records, but only beat one of them. New Mexico won five of their six home games, losing only to a 10-2 BYU team. That’s a good sign since the bowl game is essentially a home game for them. Starting RB Rodney Ferguson has been declared academically ineligible for the bowl game, a big blow since has had over 1000 yards rushing in the past two seasons.


The Matchup: As long as the Lobos can overcome the loss of their star running back, the home team should have the advantage. If Nevada can pull out a win here, it could be a stepping stone for a big 2008 season.


The Pick: New Mexico



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Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
UCLA vs. BYU
December 22
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN

UCLA
Record: 6-6 (5-4)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: BYU (10-2)
Worst Loss: Notre Dame (3-9)

The Rundown: In the preseason, UCLA looked primed for a big season and a shot at the Pac-10 title. Instead they became the definition of inconsistency, and it became impossible to know which team would show up each week. They were able to beat a very good Oregon St (8-4) team on the road 40-14, but then lost road games to Washington St (5-7) and Arizona (5-7). They were able to beat a 10-2 BYU team at home, but then lost to 3-9 Notre Dame. Making it to a bowl game was not enough to keep head coach Karl Dorrell from getting fired after the regular season. Dorrell will not stay to coach to bowl game, instead the team will be led by defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker. As of this posting, the head coaching position has not been filled.


BYU
Record: 10-2 (8-0)
Record against bowl teams: 4-2
Best Win: Air Force (9-3)
Worst Loss: UCLA (6-6)

The Rundown: BYU had a spectacular year, being one of only two teams to finish undefeated in conference play. BYU did lose two OOC games, but both were on the road to bowl teams. This team was only 18 points away from an undefeated season. The Cougars also finished with a nine-game winning streak, and will look to extend that in the bowl game.


The Matchup: These two teams met up in the second week of the regular season, and UCLA earned a 27-17 victory. Since then the two teams have been going in opposite directions. UCLA was up and down for the rest of the year, while BYU lost the next game and then won out. BYU should win this game easily.


The Pick: BYU



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Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
East Carolina vs. Boise St
December 23
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN

East Carolina
Record: 7-5 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: UCF (10-3)
Worst Loss: Marshall (3-9)

The Rundown: East Carolina is going to their second straight bowl game, after just missing a shot at playing in the C-USA championship game. They would have finished ahead of UCF in the East if either the Southern Miss or Marshall game had gone the other way. East Carolina finished the season with a winning record, but only outscored their opponents by a total of five points over a 12-game season. The Pirates won only half of their games against bowl teams, but two of those losses (Virginia Tech, West Virginia) were against teams that made it into BCS bowls.


Boise St
Record: 10-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 3-1
Best Win: Fresno St (8-4)
Worst Loss: Washington (4-9)

The Rundown: Boise St followed up last season’s unbeaten campaign with another season with double-digit wins. Their only loss in conference was to an undefeated Hawaii team. Boise St did beat three bowl teams this season, although the Nevada game took four overtimes to decide. While Hawaii’s offense deservedly gets a ton of attention, the Broncos did a ton of scoring too. They averaged over 42 points per game and more than doubled their opponents scoring output.


The Matchup: This game will face two young and successful head coaches that have had their names flying about other head coaching vacancies. It seems certain that this will be a well-coached and high-scoring affair. Another thing that seems certain is that Boise St will be on top when the smoke clears.


The Pick: Boise St