2009 Week 5 Notes

Four of the unbeatens lost this past weekend. Three were in my top six of most likely to lose. The one I overlooked is Houston, who lost a shootout to UTEP.

13 teams still have an unblemished record. All of them are in my Top 25 now, with USF as the latest entry. Check out the Bulls' less than impressive schedule as to why it took them so long to be ranked. It's likely there will be a lot of thinning of this herd this week. Obviously Florida and LSU can't both come out of the weekend with a perfect record, but it's not just those two. There are four other unbeaten teams (Alabama, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin) that have to play ranked teams. Also TCU and Auburn travel to play tough conference road games.

Virginia picked up its first win of the season with stingy defense (174 total yards allowed against North Carolina), and Nevada got its first win of the season with explosive offense (773 total yards over rival UNLV.) I knew the Nevada offense could be special, but that was insane. Three players had 170+ rushing yards, there were seven rushing touchdowns, and the team averaged 10.2 yards per carry.

UAB beat Southern Miss for the first time in ten tries. The curse has been broken.

Idaho is 4-1: EVERYBODY PANIC!

Coaches on the Hot Seat:
- It's funny, Al Groh and Ralph Friedgen both have their teams at 1-0 in conference play. In fact, Maryland is the only team in the Atlantic without a conference loss.
- A lot has been reported this week about the future of Bobby Bowden at Florida State. I think he deserves to go out on his own terms, but the infighting between coaches is never a good sign for a program.
- Dan Hawkins can't be feeling too great seeing how his team is a 32-point dog to Texas this week. Remember two seasons ago when Colorado upset #3 Oklahoma and everyone thought he was a miracle worker? How quickly those feelings can subside.
- Louisville has lost eight straight games to FBS competition, and Steve Kragthorpe is feeling the heat. They host Southern Miss this weekend, who just lost their starting QB for the rest of the season.
- Ron Zook at Illinois could be out at the end of the year. The three losses have been to the best teams on their schedule (except @Cincinnati after Thanksgiving), but Illinois looked bad in all of them. Illinois has to start beating the lower- and middle-tier Big Ten teams.
- C-USA has a lot of coaches that could be in trouble, but Tommy West is in the worst shape. Memphis is sitting at 1-4 without an easy game left on its schedule. Mike Price avoided this section with a nice win over a highly ranked Houston team. Perhaps that win can get the Miners headed in the right direction.
- Usually I wouldn't put a first year head coach here, but Stan Parrish seems to be taking the 12-0 Ball State team he inherited to an unprecedented 0-12 season. His 2-30-1 record at Kansas State should have served as a bigger warning sign.
- Getting embarrassed by your previously winless rival can't be good for Mike Sanford's job security at UNLV. UNLV plays the big three in the MWC in the next four weeks.
- The Paul Wulff experiment has been disasterous so far. Hosting Arizona State this weekend is one the few games that looks remotely winnable on Wazzou's schedule. Vegas has Arizona State favored by 21.
- I wonder if Western Kentucky will look to replace David Elson now that they've moved up to the FBS level, much like FIU did with Don Strock in 2006.

Upset Specials:
Two more hit last week, with Northwestern edging Purdue by shutting them out in the second half, and Oregon State winning outright as I predicted. This week's potential upsets:

Illinois over Michigan State - Letdown game for the Spartans? Or the week Illinois plays to its potential? Either is possible.
Mississippi over Alabama - Another team that has been underwhelming.
New Mexico over Wyoming - Despite starting 0-5, New Mexico has shown some improvement.
Colorado State over Utah - The Rams haven't lost in their home state, and Utah has been a little overrated.
Wisconsin over Ohio State - The Badgers could jump into the Top 5 with a win.
LSU over Florida - LSU doesn't lose night games at Death Valley, or so I've been told many times.


If I Were a Betting Man:
My season record is 8-3-1. I pushed San Diego State and Idaho keeps winning. Still, taking two out of three is a nice ratio.

Missouri (+3.5) over Nebraska - Always take the home team on a Thursday night game.
Washington State (+21) over Arizona State - I know it's Washington State, but do the Sun Devils really have an offense that should be favored by that much on the road? I say no.
Georgia (+1.5) over Tennessee - Is HFA really enough to make Tennessee the favorite?
Wisconsin (+16) over Ohio State - Way too high.
Michigan (+8) over Iowa - This game will be won by a touchdown or less.
Hawaii (+10) over Fresno State - Hawaii has won this game the past three years.