2009 Week 4 Notes

17 teams remain unbeaten after 4 weeks. The Big 12 and the SEC lead the way with four apiece. The ACC is the only BCS conference in which every team has at least one loss. Surprisingly the Pac 10's only representative is UCLA. Three are from non-BCS conferences. So who is least likely to survive the weekend?

Getting Exposed?:
Texas A&M vs Arkansas at Arlington - The Aggies haven't been tested yet. Should be a fun shootout.
LSU at Georgia - The Tigers haven't looked that sharp yet this year. Georgia will make them pay if they aren't firing on all cylinders.
Wisconsin at Minnesota - All three wins against FBS teams were by 8 points or fewer. First time on the road this season.

Road Landmines:
Michigan at Michigan St - Rivalry game on the road could be trouble.
UCLA at Stanford - Stanford's only loss was ~3000 miles away from home.
Auburn at Tennessee - Like Wisconsin, this is Auburn's first road game.


Ten teams have yet to win a game this season. Not surprisingly, the MAC and Sun Belt each have three of these teams. I'm picking FAU to end the streak at home against Wyoming. Eastern Michgan and Nevada both have a decent shot at beating Temple and UNLV respectively.


Another 14 teams are winless against the FBS, but have beaten an FCS team. I think some of these teams are still good teams and just have had a brutal schedule thus far. Arkansas, Fresno State and possibly Illinois fall into this category. Michigan State has had a difficult schedule, but has been losing heartbreakers too. Their three losses have been by a combined 13 points.


Upset Specials: Four of my six upset specials from last week got the win. Not a lot of potential upsets out there this week. Most of the lines are 3.5 or less, making the games basically tossups.

Northwestern over Purdue - The Boilermakers have been losing close games.
Oregon St over Arizona St - I think Oregon State is a good team that just had to play two other good teams the past two weeks.
UCLA over Stanford - Even though Prince is out, UCLA's defense can win this game.
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois - I still think WMU is a good team and one of these weeks they are going to show it.


If I Were a Betting Man: I picked four of six lines correctly last week. Arkansas wasn't able to score on Alabama like I thought, and I missed badly on USF shocking Florida State.

Washington (+12.5) over Notre Dame - Seems way too high.
Penn State (-7) over Illinois - Not trying to keep picking against Illinois, it just happens.
Oregon St (+4.5) over Arizona St - I also think the Beavers win straight up.
SMU (+28) over TCU - Too high.
New Mexico St (+17) over San Diego St - The Aztecs shouldn't be favored by 17 over anyone.
Colorado St (-3) over Idaho - Still trying to figure out how Idaho is 3-1.