Wednesday, September 16, 2009

2009 Week 2 Notes



Coaches on the Hot Seat: Dan Hawkins is now 0-2 this after a loss at Toledo. Next up is Wyoming at home and then a Thursday night game at West Virginia. Colorado needs to win this week or they will likely be 0-4 going into conference play. Al Groh also falls to 0-2. Getting blown out at home and then losing to MTSU can't be good for Tommy West at Memphis.

So Houston goes to Stillwater, OK and defeats the #5 team in the country by 10 points, and somehow they still are ranked in the USA Today Coaches Poll? How is this possible? Missouri wasn't ranked last week and now they are. What did they do that granted them inclusion over Houston? They beat Bowling Green at home by a single score, in a game they were losing 20-6 at one point in the third quarter.

Another week, another two ACC teams struggle with FCS teams. Florida State, who the conference was counting on after the fun opener with Miami, scored twice in the final 35 seconds to beat Jacksonville State. Maryland needed overtime to beat James Madison.

UCLA picked up a nice win over Tennessee in Knoxville, but I think the media is overrating the win. I'm not convinced on Tennessee being any better than last season, and I wouldn't be surprised if they stay home for the postseason again. UCLA's quarterback Kevin Prince broke his jaw at the end of the game and will be out 3-4 weeks. Fortunately they have an unimpressive Kansas State team coming and then a bye week. Rick Neuheisel will be able to settle the backup quarterback situation before conference play begins.

Back to Kansas State, Bill Snyder Part 2 is bad. I was concerned when I saw UMass play them closely, but I still thought they could beat a middle-tier Sun Belt team on the road. The Wildcats have to win seven games to go to a bowl game since they have two FCS teams on their schedule. It's not going to happen, and I don't think it will even be close.

Ball State is bad. They've lost at home to a team that was winless against its Sun Belt conference foes and to an FCS team. I don't think they will beat Army on the road this week.

Washington State is bad. SMU - who does look much improved in June Jones second year - is favored over them by a touchdown in Pullman.

Miami (OH) is bad. They haven't scored a point in the first two games of the season. They just kicked off a string of five road games in six weeks. The home game in that stretch: Cincinnati. Good luck Mike Haywood, you need it.

USC beat Ohio State on a late fourth quarter drive. Much like last year, this was considered one of the year's best games in the preseason. This time it lived up to its billing. Last year, USC won easily and lost the next week at Oregon State. A close win might be better for the Trojans, since it may keep them more focused and sharp for the road trip to Washington.

Heisman Thoughts: Jimmy Clausen probably takes a hit due to the loss to Michigan, but not much movement other than that. Tebow and McCoy are still the favorites. Max Hall is the proverbial third wheel. Bradford and Clausen will have to play themselves back into the race. Jahvid Best remains the token running back with his 10.4 ypc average, but Cal will have to have a huge year for him to get any support. None of the next wave of QBs (Pryor, Forcier, Barkley) will get much support against the popular group of upperclassmen.

Upset Specials: Not all of these will happen, but not all of the favorites will win either.
* West Virginia over Auburn - Auburn needs to show me more before I start believing in them.
* Arizona over Iowa - Hawkeyes, beating up on Iowa State hasn't made me forget about your Week 1 performance.
* Georgia Tech over Miami - Did Miami learn how to stop the triple option in the offseason?
* Nebraska over Virginia Tech - VT either solidifies its Top 15 ranking here or falls out completely.
* East Carolina over North Carolina - The Tar Heels looked mediocre against Connecticut.
* Florida State over BYU - Will the pressure get to BYU?
* MTSU over Maryland - If James Madison can push the Terps to OT, why can't MTSU win?

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