2008 Bowl Picks - Part 3

Outback Bowl
Iowa vs. South Carolina
Tampa, Florida
January 1, 11 AM EST

Analysis: Iowa's season will be remembered for two things, Shonn Green's phenomenal season in which he won the Doak Walker Award and a last second field goal that gave Penn State their only loss in the regular season. Shonn Green was the only running back to rush for more 100 yards in every game this season. Iowa has been a tough out all year, with all four losses coming by a combined 12 points. A couple of more bounces their way, and Iowa could have been playing in the Rose Bowl. Iowa is also coming off an astounding 55-0 win over Minnesota on the road in the last game of the season. South Carolina started off strong winning seven out of ten, and only losing those three by a touchdown each to bowl teams. The last two games were bad though, a 50 point loss to Florida and a 17 point loss to rival Clemson. In those two games, South Carolina gave up 530 rushing yards.
The Pick: Iowa


Capital One Bowl
Georgia vs. Michigan State
Orlando, Florida
January 1, 1 PM EST

Analysis: Georgia was the preseason #1 and had been hyped up all offseason. They were taken down by the two SEC Championship Game participants Alabama and Florida. Despite all of the potential, they didn't beat conference team by more than two touchdowns and lost to rival Georgia Tech in the season finale. Michigan State continues to improve under second year man Dantonio. They were beat solidly by two BCS teams in Ohio State and Penn State. They picked up nine wins, but the best ones were against Iowa and Northwestern. If you like running backs, this game has two of the best with Georgia's Knowshon Moreno and Michigan State's Javon Ringer.
The Pick: Georgia


Konica Minolta Gator Bowl
Nebraska vs. Clemson
Jacksonville, Florida
January 1, 1 PM EST

Analysis: Nebraska had a good season for rookie head coach Bo Pelini. They won eight games and played Virginia Tech and Texas Tech close. The offense has been surprisingly prolific, considering Pelini's defensive background. The defense did improve compared to last season's really poor numbers. In fact they allowed almost nine points and 115 yards per game fewer this season. Clemson had a very strange season with head coach Tommy Bowden getting fired midway through the season. The team had tons of potential, but collapsed under the pressure in the first game of the season. They did win four of the last five games and promoted interim head coach Dabo Swinney to official head coach. This is another game that is difficult to pick, it could go easily either way.
The Pick: Nebraska


Rose Bowl
Penn State vs. USC
Pasadena, California
January 1, 4:30 PM EST

Analysis: This is one of my most eagerly anticipated games. It pits two 11-1 teams that are somehow underrated. Both teams have mind-boggling stats, but neither could overcome the stigma in playing in a weaker conference. Penn State averaged over 40 points per game while holding opponents to under 13. They averaged over 200 yards per game on the ground and through the air while holding opponents to less than 265 total yards per game. The schedule does hurt them, as they only beat four bowl teams. Three of those wins were blowouts and the fourth was against a top ten team on the road. Their only loss was a by a last second field goal at Iowa. USC has similarly impressive stats. They are beating teams by almost 30 points per game, and they are also averaging more than 200 yards on the ground and through the air. They also boast the nation's best defense that has given up fewer than 100 points in the entire season and has held opponents to just over 200 yards per game. They have pitched three shutouts, and only two teams have scored more than 10 points against them. They held Oregon to 10 points and 239 total yards, even though Oregon averaged over 44 points and 500 total yards in their other games. USC beat five bowl teams, but only one was on the road. One advantage that Penn State has is that USC turns the ball over far more often. That might help counteract the home field advantage that USC will enjoy. I can only hope the game lives up to my expectations.
The Pick: USC


FedEx Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Miami, Florida
January 1, 8:30 PM EST

Analysis: Virginia Tech continues to be the star of the ACC, no matter how competitive it gets. They beat Boston College in the conference championship to make it to the Orange Bowl again. It can be argued whether Virginia Tech deserves to be in a BCS Bowl with four losses, but they are here and should play well. Cincinnati won 10 games last season very quietly. This year they won 11 and the Big East conference and are getting more attention. Cincy has beaten some good teams like West Virginia and Pittsburgh to get here, but they also had a bad road loss to Connecticut. I'm not sure how the two teams will match up against each other, but I'm going to keep picking against the ACC in BCS games until they can win their second game. They are holding at 1-9 right now.
The Pick: Cincinnati


AT&T Cotton Bowl
Mississippi vs. Texas Tech
Dallas, Texas
January 2, 2 PM EST

Analysis: Houston Nutt was able to turn the Ole Miss program in his first season, earning an 8-4 record with four close losses. The previous coach Ed Orgeron kept the cupboard stocked, so it's not surprising that a good coach was able to come in and win right away. They beat the past two national champions in Florida and LSU, both on the road. Texas Tech completed their third 11 win season in school history, and only a bad road loss to Oklahoma kept them from running the table. If the BCS allowed in more than two teams per conference, Tech would definitely be invited. They beat two elite teams in Texas and Oklahoma State, although both were at home. They have the best wide receiver in Michael Crabtree, the only two-time Biletnikoff Award winner. This game looks like a mismatch, so I expect Texas Tech to win easily.
The Pick: Texas Tech


AutoZone Liberty Bowl
East Carolina vs. Kentucky
Memphis, Tennessee
January 2, 5 PM EST

Analysis: East Carolina started off hotter than any other team, knocking off two ranked teams (Virginia Tech and West Virginia) in the first two weeks. They had a three game losing streak soon after that to fall from the spotlight, but they came roaring back winning six of the next seven, including the conference championship game at Tulsa. Kentucky started off hot too, winning their first four games. The opponents weren't that tough, but they only allowed 22 points in that span, which is impressive regardless of schedule. They went 2-6 the rest of the way, with both wins coming by a single point each. They lost the last two games against similarly mediocre Vanderbilt and Tennessee teams. East Carolina still may not look as good as they did the first two weeks of the season, but they won't have to against Kentucky.
The Pick: East Carolina


Allstate Sugar Bowl
Utah vs. Alabama
New Orleans, Louisiana
January 2, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Utah will finish the season as the only undefeated team if they win this game. They ran the table in the regular season and played some really good teams along the way. They beat Oregon State, TCU, and BYU and two other bowl teams. It's worrisome that five of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. The 2008 Utah team isn't nearly as dominating as the 2004 Utah team was. Alabama ran the table in the regular season, but lost to Florida in the SEC Championship game. They had dominating wins over Clemson and Georgia early, but then played several unexpectedly close games. Alabama will be without their left tackle Andre Smith who was suspended for the game. Smith was the Outland Trophy winner and is considered the best offensive lineman in the country and a major part of Alabama's success. Utah isn't great at getting to the quarterback, but this can only help them. Most people aren't giving Utah a chance, but this game won't be anything like the Sugar Bowl last season. Utah might not win, but they will play tough.
The Pick: Alabama


International Bowl
Connecticut vs. Buffalo
Toronto, Canada
January 3, Noon EST

Analysis: Connecticut beat one bowl team all season, and it was the team that ended up winning the Big East. They only won two of their last seven games after starting 5-0. They are led by the country's leading rusher Donald Brown. He had 1822 yards and 17 touchdowns. He needs to have a good game for Connecticut to win. Buffalo has been the feel-good story of the year, winning eight games and their conference. Buffalo had won ten games in the seven seasons before Turner Gill arrived. Gill is only 15-22 in three seasons, but he is taking them to their first ever bowl game, and he beat an undefeated Ball State team in the MAC Championship Game.
The Pick: Connecticut


Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Texas vs. Ohio State
Glendale, Arizona
January 5, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Texas might be the best team in the country, but they can only be Fiesta Bowl champs while Oklahoma and Florida battle for it all. Their only loss was on a last second play on the road in their fourth straight game against a ranked team playing a Texas Tech team that finished 11-1. They beat the two teams by double digits that played in the Big XII Championship game. Ohio State was supposed to be an elite team this season, but they lost to USC and Penn State and didn't even win their conference. They are a very talented team, and they should be healthy. It probably won't be a blowout, but Texas should still win by two touchdowns.
The Pick: Texas


GMAC Bowl
Ball State vs. Tulsa
Mobile, Alabama
January 6, 8 PM EST

Analysis: This should be a fun high-scoring game before the BCS National Championship Game. Ball State won every regular season game, but lost to Buffalo in the conference championship game. They have a potent offense led by QB Nate Davis and RB MiQuale Lewis, who have accounted for 52 touchdowns together. Tulsa won ten games this season, but finished poorly. The lost three of the last five, including a 70-30 thumping by Houston and losing the C-USA Championship Game in their home stadium. Tulsa scores a lot more than Ball State, but the average point differential is about the same. Both teams will be looking to rebound from losing their conferences.
The Pick: Ball State