2008 Bowl Picks - Part 1

Eagle Bank Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Navy
Washington, DC
December 20, 11 AM EST

Analysis: Haven't we already seen this before? Navy beat Wake Forest at their place 24-17 early in the season. After a good start with wins over Mississippi and Florida State, Wake Forest struggled down the stretch losing five games. Four losses were by a touchdown or less, but so were three of the wins. Navy finished the season with a lot of momentum. They had an epic fourth quarter comeback against Temple, pushed Notre Dame to the wire, and beat their final two opponents by a combined score of 50-0. If this game were played at the end of the season I would pick Navy, but Wake Forest knows what they are going up against and have had time to prepare for it.
The Pick: Wake Forest


New Mexico Bowl
Colorado State vs. Fresno State
Albuquerque, New Mexico
December 20, 2:30 PM EST

Analysis: Colorado State did an excellent job in establishing themselves in Steve Fairchild's first year. The only bowl team they beat was Houston. The Rams played tough at home, coming within a score of knocking off both TCU and BYU. Fresno State came into this season with a lot of hype, and knocking off Rutgers and UCLA early had a lot of people thinking this was going to be a special season. Instead they went on to lose five games, although three were only by a field goal. It's worth noting that Fresno missed five field goals in two of those close losses. The season ended on an especially sour note with a 61-10 beatdown by Boise State. Colorado State has established itself as a team to watch next season in the Mountain West, but I think they are in over their heads here.
The Pick: Fresno State


magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis vs. South Florida
St. Petersburg, Florida
December 20, 4:30 PM EST

Analysis: Memphis started out 0-3 before winning six of nine to become bowl eligible in the last week of the season. Three of the wins were by less than a touchdown, and only one was against a bowl team. South Florida was the opposite, starting out 5-0 but then only won two games the rest of the year, and they were against Syracuse and Connecticut at home. I don't know what happened to them, except for a couple of close road losses and a back-loaded schedule. Regardless, South Florida is a much more talented team that Memphis, plus the bowl is right next to Tampa.
The Pick: South Florida


Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
BYU vs. Arizona
Las Vegas, Nevada
December 20, 8 PM EST

Analysis: BYU is playing in this bowl game for the fourth straight year. After going undefeated in conference play for two seasons, they were leapfrogged by Utah and TCU this year. BYU's best win is probably at Air Force, but they dominated several teams. They beat Washington and UCLA in the regular season and are going for their third win against a Pac-10 team. Arizona finally broke through under Mike Stoops and are going to their first bowl since 1998. Losses to Stanford and Oregon State by a total of three points prevented this season from being more special. Both offenses score a lot of points, but neither defense is particularly bad. Expect a lot of points but still a close game.
The Pick: BYU


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Troy
New Orleans, Louisiana
December 21, 8:15 PM EST

Analysis: Southern Miss was down to the wire after five straight losses left them with a 2-6 record. Then they ripped off four straight wins, including one over the conference champion East Carolina, to make it to a bowl game in Larry Fedora's first year. The defense really stepped it up, allowing just 35 points in those four games. Troy continued their Sun Belt dominance, only losing by one point to Louisiana Monroe for their third conference loss in the past three years. Troy is a very good team and the class of their conference, but this Southern Miss team has really bought into Fedora's system and is going to be tough to stop.
The Pick: Southern Miss


SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl
Boise State vs. TCU
San Diego, California
December 23, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Basically this is a BCS bowl game without all of the fanfare (or payout.) Boise State rolled through the season unbeaten with only two close wins. Oregon and Nevada both played them close at their home stadiums, but Boise State still prevailed. Boise State is strong on both sides of the ball, outscoring opponents by over 27 points per game and outgaining them by over 160 yards per game. They've held six opponents to seven points or less, and ten to 16 points or less. Only three teams have held them to less than thirty points. TCU has similarly impressive stats, except that they've lost twice. Both losses were on the road against teams in BCS bowls, and even the Utah loss was only by a field goal. TCU has averaged 35 points per game while giving up just under 11. They allow a paltry 215 yards per game, second only to USC. TCU has allowed seven points or less in seven games, and only Oklahoma put up more than 14 against them. Boise State has risen to every challenge they have faced, but this one may be too great. This TCU defense isn't given enough credit as being one of the best in the nation. This game is the first matchup of great teams, so everyone should watch it. TCU and their defense get the edge here, but I remember what happened the last time I picked against Boise State in a high profile bowl game.
The Pick: TCU


Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. Notre Dame
Honolulu, Hawaii
December 24, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Hawaii makes it to the postseason despite the loss of June Jones, Colt Brennan, and all of the top wide receivers. Due to long trips for opponents, Hawaii has one of the best home field advantages. They won five out of seven home games, and both of the losses were close including one to BCS bound Cincinnati. Greg McMackin should be commended for his first year success. Notre Dame can't seem to get over the hump with Charlie Weis. Despite looking good at times, they couldn't seem to win when it mattered. A close loss at North Carolina, a four OT loss to Pittsburgh, and the unforgivable one point loss to Syracuse at home all but cost Weis his job. Last year, Notre Dame could play the tough schedule card. This year they only beat one bowl team in Navy. Notre Dame has a lot more talent than Hawaii, but will they put it together for the bowl game? They would be smart to arrive a couple of days early so that the players can recover from the long flight and adjust to the time zone difference. That's needed to help negate the home field advantage.
My Pick: Notre Dame


Motor City Bowl
FAU vs. Central Michigan
Detroit, Michigan
December 26, 7:30 PM EST

Analysis: FAU was primed for big season after last year's breakout eight win campaign. Instead they started 1-5 before winning five of the last six. They struggled mostly on the road, which doesn't bode well since the bowl game is played ~150 miles from their opponent's campus. Head coach Howard Schnellenberger has never lost a bowl game, but this will be a tough test. Thanks to Ball State's undefeated regular season, Central Michigan wasn't able to continue their run of MAC titles. Still the only team that really beat them was Georgia, and the last loss was a letdown game against Eastern Michigan after they lost their shot at the conference championship game. Most of their games have been close high-scoring affairs. This one should be no different. This will be Central Michigan's third straight Motor City Bowl appearance, and they always play well in this game.
My Pick: Central Michigan


Meineke Car Care Bowl
West Virginia vs. North Carolina
Charlotte, North Carolina
December 27, 1 PM EST

Analysis: West Virginia was up and down under new head coach Bill Stewart. Two of their losses were in OT, and the loss at Pittsburgh was only be four points. Still their best wins were against teams with 7-5 records. Butch Davis has North Carolina headed in the right direction, although they couldn't break into the top tier of ACC teams this season. Somehow they beat Boston College and Georgia Tech handily, but lost at Virginia and Maryland. Then they were blown out at home by NC State to really take away from a season where they improved their record by four games. While this a very close to being a home game for North Carolina, don't forget how well West Virginia travels. Pat White has a chance to go 4-4 as a starting quarterback in bowl games, and I'm not going to bet against him.
The Pick: West Virginia


Champs Sports Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Florida State
Orlando, Florida
December 27, 4:30 PM

Analysis: Wisconsin had a disappointing season, highlighted by a six game stretch in the middle of the season where they had all five of their losses. They were one of just three teams to lose to Michigan this season. They had three losses by three points or less, but they three wins like that so it balances out. Cal Poly pushed them to OT in the last game of the season, which can't be a good sign for this game. Florida State missed out on playing in the conference championship game with a loss to Boston College. Florida State is trying to get back to being an elite team, but three losses at home really hurt them this year. The most telling stat may be that Florida State has an average point differential of +12, while Wisconsin's is only +3.
The Pick: Florida State


Emerald Bowl
Miami vs. California
San Francisco, California
December 27, 8 PM EST

Analysis: Miami is trying to make it back to prominence, but losing the last two regular season games isn't the way to do it. If they had won both, they would have won the division outright. Miami has been running a two-quarterback system all season, but one of them is suspended for the bowl game. Miami's only road wins were against Texas A&M and Duke, and they have to travel cross-country while California is playing very close to home. California has played well this season with wins over Michigan State and Oregon. All of their losses have come on the road to bowl teams, but this game won't feel like a road game to them. Both teams are very young and will have a lot of returning players next season. A bowl win will do a lot for the confidence of whichever team gets it.
The Pick: California