Monday, August 20, 2007

Big East Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

West Virginia | 6-1 | 11-1

Louisville | 6-1 | 11-1

Rutgers | 5-2 | 10-2

South Florida | 4-3 | 9-3

Cincinnati | 3-4 | 7-5

Pittsburgh | 3-4 | 6-6

Connecticut | 1-6 | 5-7

Syracuse | 0-7 | 2-10



West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country this year and is a legitimate National Championship contender. QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton, both who are Heisman candidates, will lead an elite offense. White has grown as a passer in his first two years, completing almost two-thirds of his attempts last year and throwing 13 TDs. Of course both are explosive runners, combining for almost 3000 yards and 34 TDs on the ground. The offense does lose its top receiver and All-American and Rimington Trophy winner C Dan Mozes. The offense will be one of the best in the NCAA again (3rd in points scored last year.) The defense returns eight starters, including all four in the secondary. Pass defense was a problem last year, but should be improved with the experience. The schedule has four road trips in five weeks early in the season, but the showdown with Louisville is at home. The Mountaineers have an excellent shot to go undefeated, or at least win the Big East.


Louisville is also a National Championship contender this season, even with a first year head coach. Previous head coach Bobby Petrino left for the Atlanta Falcons job, so Steve Kragthorpe of Tulsa takes over. QB Brian Brohm is back for his senior season, and should be in the Heisman race. He gets all of his receivers and the tight end back. The running game should continue to succeed, even with the losses of Michael Bush and Kolby Smith to the NFL. Last year Louisville was second in the NCAA in total yards, and it doesn't look like there will be any dropoff this season. Last year's defense was underrated, ranking 17th in fewest points allowed with 16.3 per game. The defense does lose five starters, but brings in two top JUCO recruits. The talent level is high enough to prevent a dip in production. Even with a new coach, the Cardinals should be one of the top teams.


Rutgers was one of the surprise teams last season and should have another great season. RB Ray Rice looks to follow up his 1800 yard and 20 TD sophomore season with another great year. He is the fourth Heisman candidate in the Big East. The offense gets its QB and both starting receivers, but loses its FB Brian Leonard and TE Clark Harris to the NFL Draft. The defense was one of the best in the country, allowing only 14.3 points per game (eighth in the NCAA.) The defense held six teams to under 200 yards of offense and seven teams to 10 points or less. The schedule is manageable, with home games against South Florida and West Virginia. Expect another great year for the Scarlet Knights.


South Florida came on strong at the end of last year with an athletic defense and the mobility of QB Matt Grothe. Grothe was the leading rusher and accounted for 24 TDs as a redshirt freshman. The entire offensive line returns, which should help an offense that only scored 23 points per game. The defense averaged less than 17 points and 300 total yards allowed last season. Nobody was able to pass for 300 yards on them. The Bulls could upset Louisville or West Virginia, especially since both of them have to come to Tampa. The out of conference lineup includes an interesting game at Auburn in the second week. South Florida could surprise a lot of people with an upset here, which I am predicting.


Cincinnati was a very tough team to beat at home last year. They went 6-1 with wins over Rutgers and South Florida. This season they get West Virginia and Louisville at home, and it wouldn't be that surprising if they won one of them. The offense didn't score a lot of points last year, only 20 per game, but the defense kept them in most games. In fact they were outscored for the season by nine points, but still had an 8-5 record. Previous head coach Mark Dantonio left for the Michigan St opening. Central Michigan's head coach is the replacement, coming off a 10 win season, MAC Championship, and Motor City Bowl win. Kelly is a great young coach, so I don't expect much of a transition year. The Bearcats will be bowling again this year.


Pittsburgh started off last season 6-1 before losing the last five games, including a double overtime heartbreaker at Connecticut when they were by 14 points headed into the fourth quarter. The offense was third best in the Big East last year behind the great senior season of QB Tyler Palko. Now Palko is gone, and a QB battle begins between last year's back junior Bill Stull and the incoming top recruit Pat Bostick. The offense also lost its top receiver Derek Kinder in fall practice with a torn ACL. He will medical redshirt this year and come back for his senior season in 2008. The defense loses five starters, three of whom were drafted. The Panthers are a 6-6 team again this year and probably won't make it to the postseason.


Connecticut is trying to climb back to respectability and make it the second bowl game in their history. They will come close this year, but will need to pull a couple of surprises to get there this season. Last year the offense had two QBs, and neither one established himself as the starter. This year that won't be a problem as one graduated and the other moves to receiver. The QB will be JUCO transfer Tyler Lorenzen. The offense is very young with only one senior starter (WR). The schedule works out nicely with three definite wins against Duke, Maine, and Temple to open the season. The Huskies are probably still a year away.


Syracuse has struggled under the first two years under head coach Greg Robinson, and they don't look to be improved in the third year. The offense couldn't score points last season, and now it has to replace the graduating QB and top running back, who is taking a medical redshirt this year after dislocating his hip in the spring. The defense gave up a lot of yards last season, but not a lot of points. 28 turnovers helped keep the opponent's score low. The defense has to replace six starters and is unlikely to force that many takeaways again. It is unlikely that the Orange will win a conference game, after only winning one last year. Coach Robinson may be on the hot seat at the end of the season.

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