Big 12 Preview

Predicted Order of Finish


Big 12 North

Nebraska | 7-1 | 10-2

Missouri | 6-2 | 10-2

Kansas St | 5-3 | 7-5

Colorado | 4-4 | 5-7

Kansas | 2-6 | 5-7

Iowa St | 0-8 | 2-10


Big 12 South

Texas | 7-1 | 11-1

Oklahoma | 7-1 | 11-1

Texas A&M | 4-4 | 7-5

Oklahoma St | 4-4 | 7-5

Texas Tech | 2-6 | 6-6

Baylor | 0-8 | 3-9



North

Nebraska will be back in the Big 12 Title game again this season. The starting QB and RB from last season are gone, but the replacements should fill in nicely. Sam Keller, who transferred from Arizona St, takes the starting QB role after sitting out last year. Marlon Lucky had over 1100 combined rushing and receiving yards, so he be a star as the feature back. All of the receivers are back, and the defense should be nasty as always. The schedule includes a great game with USC in Week 3, plus tough conference road games at Missouri and Texas. The Cornhuskers should have double-digit wins and a chance to win the conference.


Missouri should battle Nebraska all year long for the top of the Big 12 North. The offense should be one of the best in the conference, with most of the contributors returning. QB Chase Daniel should improve with a year starting under his belt, and the running game should be solid like last year. The defense may be a little worse, but that should e offset by the improved offense. The schedule works out well for the Tigers too. They play Nebraska at home after a bye week. That showdown is followed up with a road matchup with Oklahoma. Missouri might win 10 wins in the regular season, but still might not be enough to dethrone the 'Huskers.


Kansas St had a great first year under new head coach Ron Prince, until Rutgers whipped them in the Texas Bowl. With 15 returning starters, they could be even better this year. QB Josh Freeman had a lot of growing pains as a true freshman, but showed a lot of potential too. In his second season, his interceptions should go down and his completion percentage up. The top two rushers, top receiver, and both tight ends are back. The defense should play at the same level, but the offense will put more points on the board. Look for the Wildcats to be playing in the postseason again.


Colorado was much worse last year than anybody could have predicted. They only won two games, lost to Montana St, gave up two late touchdowns to Georgia and lost by a single point, and lost in triple overtime to Baylor. Last year's QB returns, but he will have to fight the coach's son and a JUCO transfer for the starting position. The top rusher and all of the receivers return, and the offense added the highest touted offensive linemen recruit out of high school. Last season the offense was futile, ranking last in the conference in both points scored, passing yards, and total yards. The defense looks to be about the same level again, but the offense has to be better as it couldn't get any worse. The Buffaloes won't be bowling this year, but they will win more games.


Kansas almost made it to a bowl game last year, but will probably regress some this year. The running game takes a huge hit with the graduation of Jon Cornish (1457 yards, 8 TDs). The new starting RB only had 21 carries last season with a 3.5 ypc average. Joining him in the backfield will be QB Kerry Meier. Meier split time with Adam Barmann last year, but now Barmann is gone and Meier has to prove that he can carry the entire load. The defense should put up better numbers this season, but unfortunately the offense takes a big step back. The Jayhawks are at least a year away from going back to the postseason.


Iowa St was at the bottom of the Big 12 standings last season, and don't look to be that much improved this season. The previous head coach was let go and replaced with Gene Chizik, the former DC at Texas and Auburn. I think this is a great hire for them, but it will take a couple of years before that shows up in the standings. The offense loses its top two running backs, top receiver, and four starting linemen. The running looks to be so lacking, that Chizik recruited one of the top JUCO backs to come in and be the starter this year. The line will have to come together or it won't matter who the running back is. The defense should improve greatly with Chizik taking over. The offense won't be any batter, and actually could be worse. The Cyclones will be at the bottom of the standings again.



South

Texas lost the last two regular season games to miss playing in the Big 12 title game, despite beating Oklahoma earlier in the year. QB Colt McCoy put up amazing numbers as a freshman, and should be in Heisman discussions as a sophomore. The offense also gets back its leading rusher Jamaal Charles and its leading receiver Limas Sweed, one of the best in the whole country. The defense and special teams should be top notch like last year, when they scored eight touchdowns. The schedule has several good games, including home dates against TCU and Nebraska, the season finale at Texas A&M, and as always the Red River Rivalry with Oklahoma in Dallas. The Longhorns are talented enough to make it to the BCS Championship Game, but I predict them to fall a little short. A Fiesta Bowl appearance will be their consolation prize.


Oklahoma is right there at the top of the Big 12 South with Texas. After backing into the Big 12 Championship Game last year, they beat Nebraska and lost in an overtime thriller to Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl. This season they must replace first round draft choice Adrian Peterson and their starting QB. All of the receivers return as well as four linemen. Battling for the starting role at QB will be redshirt freshman Sam Bradford and junior Joey Halzle. Splitting carries in the backfield will be the highly recruited redshirt freshman DeMarco Murray and senior Allen Patrick (761 yards, 4 TDs last season). The defense allowed the fewest points in the conference last season, and should be just tough again. The question mark at QB is just enough to keep the Sooners out of the Big 12 Title game.


Texas A&M lost three regular season games by a total of six points before getting thrashed in the Holiday Bowl by Cal. This year, they could make some noise in the South. The offense will be one of the top rushing teams in the country, and the defense will hold most teams in check. The top two rushers and the QB are back behind a veteran offensive line, so expect a scoring average over 30 points per game. The schedule includes an interesting OOC date at Miami, tough road matchups with Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri, plus the season finale against Texas at home. The Aggies have too difficult of a schedule to win the South, although they are at the same level as Oklahoma and Texas this year.


Oklahoma St will have the best offense in the Big 12 this season. The offense gets back the QB, the top two rushers, and the top receiver Adarius Bowman, an All-American talent. The offense will have to score a ton of points, to compensate for the holes on defense. Last year, the Cowboys were 10th in the conference in points allowed, ahead of only Iowa St and Baylor. This year the entire back seven returns, but none of the linemen do. The defensive line will have to prove itself, or every game will deteriorate into a shootout. While this should be a fun team to watch, I don't see them as being a serious player in the South.


Texas Tech is back for another year of lighting up the scoreboard, even if they are a little down. The QB and RB are back, but the top two receivers as well as four linemen are gone. Two sophomores will try to fill in on the offensive line, so this unit is a major question mark. The defensive line isn't any better, with only one starter returning. Three sophomores will take the other starting roles, so it becomes an even bigger question flag. Football games are won and lost in the trenches, so I expect Texas Tech to have a hard time winning games. The Red Raider offense should be just explosive enough to get into a bowl game.


Baylor experimented with implementing the Texas Tech offense last season with mixed results. They won three Big 12 games, most ever for them, but they only won four total games. QB Shawn Bell ran the offense effectively for the first nine games until he was lost for the season. The last three games without him were all blowout losses. Bell graduated, and now the battle for the starter job begins. The backup QB struggled in his three starts, so two other QBs were brought in. One was the starter for Kent St in 2005, and the other top recruit JUCO transfer. None of those three will be able to match the production of Bell. Overall this is a young team, with a total of nine sophomore starters. The Bears will continue to be in the basement of the Big 12 South.