Main Contenders
1 - Florida
Pros: Heisman Trophy winner QB Tim Tebow is back. So is Percy Harvin, who can produce as a rusher or a wide receiver. They add in USC transfer RB Emmanuel Moody and the top rated incoming JUCO player WR Carl Moore, both of whom could start right away. MLB Brandon Spikes became a defensive force last season as a sophomore, as he was all over the field making plays. Look for another huge season from him. A lot of underclassmen played last season, especially on defense, so this team will have a lot of starting experience.
Cons: The Gators must replace DE Derrick Harvey, a first round draft choice, and WR Andre Caldwell, the team's third all-time leading receiver and third rounder. The running backs are still unproven, and Urban Meyer wants one of them to step up to take the rushing load off Tebow. No seniors are starting on defense; seven of the starters will be sophomores. The secondary in particular looks young.
Schedule: The non-conference games shouldn't pose any problems. The Gators can beat Hawaii and the Citadel with their eyes closed, Miami isn't an elite team anymore, and going to Florida State is the biggest test, although Florida beat them by 33 points last season. The only tough conference road game is at Tennessee, but they get a bye the prior week. LSU and South Carolina both have to come to Gainesville. The most likely landmine is playing Georgia at Jacksonville, in a game that will have huge national title implications. They will have to win the SEC Championship game to get to BCS title game.
Conclusion: The Gators have the schedule, the talent, and the head coach to go undefeated. If this team plays up to its potential, they could be unstoppable. The Florida Gators are my pick for the 2008 National Champions.
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2 - Oklahoma
Pros: QB Sam Bradford returns and led the NCAA in passing efficiency as a redshirt freshman last season. The offensive line has five returning senior starters of one of the best lines in the country last year. Running back DeMarco Murray should have a huge season. Reception leader Juaquin Iglesias returns for his senior season. The defensive line will be one of the best in the country.
Cons: WR Malcolm Kelly was the big-play guy, but he is off to the NFL. So are CB Reggie Smith and LB Curtis Lofton, the team's top tackler. The defensive back seven is young and inexperienced, which could be a problem when playing against Texas and Texas Tech.
Schedule: Outside of the opener against Chattanooga, the non-conference slate isn't bad, but none of the teams (Cincinnati, Washington, TCU) are on Oklahoma's level. They miss Missouri from the North, but are likely to see them in the Big XII Championship game. The three conference home games are rough against Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas Tech, but the Sooners always play well at home. The toughest game might be against Texas in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas.
Conclusion: Oklahoma's problem last season was not showing up to every game, especially ones on the road. They were 2-2 in conference road games (including against Texas in Dallas) and the two wins were only by 7 and 10 points. They won the Big XII Championship game with ease, but then mailed it in for the bowl game. If this team stays hungry throughout the entire season, they should win every game.
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3 - USC
Pros: Top talent exists at every position in the roster. QB John David Booty is gone, but Mark Sanchez and/or Mitch Mustain should be able to step in and shine right away. The running backs should be one of the best groups in the country with Joe McKnight and Stanley Havili in their second seasons, and a full year of sophomore CJ Gable (redshirt last year.) The defense should again be top-notch, led by LB Rey Mauluga.
Cons: Ten players were drafted, including seven in the first two rounds. That type of production is always hard to replace even at USC. The offensive line only has one starter returning. The wide receivers didn't play up to their potential last season, and the top leader in receptions, yardage and TDs was TE Fred Davis who is off to the NFL. This team doesn't look as good as last year's version.
Schedule: USC doesn't look like the third best team in the country, but they do have a schedule to go undefeated. In the best non-conference game of the year, they play Ohio State in Week 3. They get that game at home and have a bye week prior to prepare. If they win, they won't be tested as hard again all season. All of the other tough teams have to come to the Coliseum: Oregon, Arizona State, California, and Notre Dame. At UCLA to end the season is the toughest road game, although they should be very careful when going to Stanford.
Conclusion: USC has a great opportunity with a good schedule and a conference in a down year to make it to the Rose Bowl or BCS Championship game. Last year, they screwed up against Stanford and lost at Oregon to one of the best teams in the country with a strong home-field advantage. Hosting Ohio State and Oregon this season gives the Trojans an excellent shot at going undefeated, even if they aren't as good as seasons past.
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4 - Ohio State
Pros: All of the starters return on offense except for the RT. RB Beanie Wells should have another huge season and is a Heisman Trophy candidate. QB Tood Boeckman is in his second season as a starter, and he will be backed up by the #1 high school recruit in the country Terrelle Pryor. Look for Pryor to get some playing time to give the Buckeyes a different and more mobile look. The defense returns nine starters and will be led by MLB James Laurinaitis, who won the Butkas Award last season.
Cons: The three lost starters were all drafted, including #6 overall DE Vernon Gohlston. Pryor's effectiveness is hard to predict since he is a true freshman. They have had trouble with teams that spread the ball, and more teams are moving to that type of offense.
Schedule: As mentioned earlier in the USC write-up, the Buckeyes and Trojans play in the non-conference game of the year. If Ohio State wins, it will give them a huge confidence boost and national credibility that has been lacking the past two seasons. The rest on the non-conference schedule is a breeze. They host Penn State and Michigan, but have to travel to Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Illinois.
Conclusion: If they win the USC game, they will have a clear shot at running the table. It wouldn't surprise me, since this is a great Buckeye team, and the Trojans look a little down. One of the biggest things going against them is their national perception after losing back-to-back National Championship games. If three teams finish undefeated and Ohio State is one of them, I can almost guarantee that the Buckeyes will be the one left out.
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5 - Georgia
Pros: The hottest team in the country over the second half of the season will look to build on that momentum this year. RB Knowshon Moreno was a breakout star last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if he were the second straight sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy. QB Matt Stafford continues to improve, and his junior season should be his best yet. The defense returns nine starters and was one of the best in the SEC last season. The secondary in particular should be top-notch.
Cons: This team is very complete and only has a couple of question marks. The offensive line is very young and will start four sophomores. RB Thomas Moore is gone, so although they have several highly rated backups, there's no proven one for Moreno. Brandon Coutu was one of only two placekickers drafted, and he will be replaced by a true freshman.
Schedule: Simply put, this slate is killer. Early in the season, there are back-to-back road trips to South Carolina and Arizona State. Later in the season, there are four straight games away from Athens: at LSU, versus Florida in Jacksonville, at Kentucky, and then at Auburn. Getting through unscathed will be extremely tough. Don't forget about home dates against Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech. At least the first two games of the season against Georgia Southern and Central Michigan at home should be layups.
Conclusion: There's not a team in the country I would predict to go undefeated against that schedule. If I swapped the Bulldogs' schedule with any of the previous four teams' schedules, they would instantly vault to the top. Georgia should still have a great season, but they might not even win the SEC East.
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Second Tier
6 - Missouri
Notes: The Tigers could be even better than last season and have a slightly easier schedule. QB Chase Daniel returns for his senior season and will be a Heisman Trophy candidate. WR/RB and returnman Jeremy Maclin was explosive last season and set the NCAA freshman record for all-purpose yards. They must find someone to be the feature running back and must replace their #2 WR and #1 TE, who were both drafted in the fourth round. They miss Oklahoma, but will probably see them in the Big XII Championship Game. The have to travel to Nebraska and Texas, plus neutral site games against Illinois and Kansas. This is probably another double-digit win team, but not good enough to win out. They have a good shot at making a BCS Bowl as an at-large selection if they don't win the Big XII.
7 - South Florida
Notes: This could be the season that South Florida truly breaks through and makes it to a BCS Bowl. The offense returns all the starters except for the RT. QB Matt Grothe continues to improve each season and is one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country. The defense should be really fast and great at forcing turnovers (tied for #1 last season.) Secondary might be a little down with the loss of two shutdown corners to the NFL. The non-conference schedule isn't easy, but the Bulls should be able to win at UCF, against Kansas at home, and at NC State. There are tough conference road games at Louisville and Cincinnati, but it all feels like a leadup to a huge showdown at West Virginia in the finale. South Florida is definitely a 'dark horse' for the National Championship.
8 - Auburn
Notes: Auburn looks like the best team in the SEC West and has the schedule to run the table. The toughest conference games against LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia are all at home. The only tough road games are against West Virginia and Alabama. Their hardest game will be the SEC Championship game if they make it. Both the OC and DC were replaced, but the new OC coached in bowl game, and the new DC is from Pittsburgh who should down West Virginia last year.
9 - Texas Tech
Notes: Simply put, this is the best Texas Tech team ever. The offense returns ten starters, all but a WR. QB Graham Harrell is in his senior season and put up huge numbers last season (71.8%, 5705 yards, 48 TDs). WR Michael Crabtree won the Biletnikoff Award last season as a redshirt freshman and caught 22 TDs. All five starters return on the nation's biggest offensive line. The defense needs to improve since they were susceptible to giving up a lot of points (Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas) last year. The non-conference slate is a joke. They have to go to Oklahoma, which may decide the Big XII South. They host Nebraska and Texas and have back-to-back road games versus Texas A&M and Kansas, but this team is capable of winning all of those games. The chance at a National Championship will probably come down to the game at Oklahoma and the following Big XII Championship Game.
10 - West Virginia
Notes: QB Pat White returns for his senior season and is a Heisman Trophy candidate. RB Noel Devine should continue on his explosive freshman season. The offensive line has five returning starters and is one of the best in the country. The running game might struggle some with the loss of Steve Slaton and Owen Schmitt. I'm not convinced Devine can be a feature back, so someone new will have to step up and share the load. The secondary is inexperienced and could be a problem. The schedule isn't bad since they host Auburn and South Florida, but they do have to go to Louisville and Pittsburgh in back-to-back weeks. The biggest question mark in my mind is the new Head Coach Bill Stewart. While he did beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, I don't know how well he'll do over the span of an entire season.
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Long Shots
11 - Clemson
Notes: Clemson has the talent and a good enough schedule to run the table and make it to the BCS Championship Game. Their biggest problem is a history of coming up short.
12 - LSU
Notes: Like other elite teams, LSU stockpiles talent on top of talent. Although they had seven players drafted and their starting QB was kicked off the team, they still can't be counted out of the race. The non-conference slate has four ridiculously easy home games.
13 - Penn State
Notes: Penn State probably won't be talked about much going into the season, but that won't be the case at the end of the year. The biggest roadblocks to a BCS Bowl are road games at Ohio State and Wisconsin. They should finish with at least ten wins.
14 - Oregon
Notes: Teams usually don't get better when they lose two tremendous talents like QB Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart. I have a lot of confidence in OC Chip Kelly's system to keep the Ducks scoring a lot of points. The schedule is tough with road games at USC, Arizona State, and California.
15 - BYU / Utah
Notes: While I don't believe either of these teams will play for the National Championship, I feel they are both good enough to be mentioned here. Both teams look far better than any of their Mountain West counterparts. BYU has to get past back-to-back games against Pac-10 teams, first at Washington and then home against UCLA. They also have a trap game at TCU on a short week. Utah has to play Michigan in the Big House, and they host Oregon State. If everything breaks right, both teams will be 11-0 going into a biggest non-BCS showdown in the final game. I think BYU is the slightly better team, but Utah has the home field advantage. If the winner does finish 12-0, they'll play in the Orange Bowl.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Analysis of 2008 Non-conference Games
As another college football season nears, I'd like to take an in-depth look at each school's non-conference schedule and see what interesting points can be discovered.
Best Overall Games
1 - Ohio St at USC, September 13
This is the big one. These two teams have been dominant on an annual basis during the BCS era. These two teams have squared off in the Rose Bowl seven times (USC leads series 4-3 with wins in the last three.) These two teams are early national championship contenders. These two teams really need this win to stay in the hunt to play in Miami on January 8, 2009. As a college football fan, there is not a better regular season game than this one.
2 - Georgia at Arizona St, September 20
Georgia finished last season as the hottest team in the country and will probably be a preseason Top 5 team. Arizona St and first year head coach Dennis Erickson won 10 games and were in the hunt for a conference championship until the end of the season. Both teams will be looking to make a statement before the conference schedule is in full swing.
3 - Auburn at West Virginia, October 23
The two most notable things about this game are its late date in the thick of the conference schedule and the fact that it's on a Thursday night. Both teams have a bye the previous week, so I don't think the midweek date will affect the outcome much. Auburn has a relatively easy road schedule, so this will be one of the only times they will be tested away from home. West Virginia will have broken in their new head coach Bill Stewart by week nine of the season. It's difficult to pick this game before I see these teams play.
4 - Tennessee at UCLA, September 1
The dropoff from the first three games to this one is significant. Looking at this game reminds me of how much risk is involved in creating elite matchups without much reward. This game looks great on paper between two storied programs, but don't forget that UCLA finished last season with a losing record after the bowl game and replaced their coach. New coach Rick Neuheisel has proven that he can win, but it's hard to imagine him doing so in the first game against a team like Tennessee. Hopefully I'm wrong and we'll get to see a great game on the Monday after opening weekend.
5 - Virginia Tech at Nebraska, September 27
Very similar to the previous game since it has a famous program with a new head coach trying to turn the program around playing host to another famous program in better shape. The two things that could make it a better matchup is that Nebraska will have had a few weeks to get used to Bo Pelini's system, and Virginia Tech isn't the type of team to score points in bunches.
6 - Wisconsin at Fresno St, September 13
Both teams will begin the season with hopes of a BCS bowl game. The loser will suffer a setback that might prevent those dreams from coming true. This game reminds me a lot of the Missouri-Illinois game last season, where nobody thought much of it until the end of the season and the teams had a combined 21 wins. Don't be surprised if Wisconsin and Fresno St combine for as many or more wins when the season is over.
7 - Cincinnati at Oklahoma, September 6
I debated putting this game on the list, because it's likely that Oklahoma will win big. I decided to add it since Cincinnati had a huge first year under head coach Brian Kelly, and now they have the chance to play a 'prove-it' game against a team with national title aspirations. I'm not a big believer in moral victories, but just showing that you belong on the same field as Oklahoma is a step in the right direction. If Oklahoma wins 51-13 like they did last year against Miami, well that wouldn't surprise me either.
8 - Kansas at South Florida, September 13
Two teams square off that found themselves in the national spotlight last year. South Florida won its first six games including matchups against Auburn and West Virginia. Three straight losses took them out of the spotlight and the chance for a Big East title, but now the average fan was aware of them. Kansas started off an amazing 11-0 before falling to Missouri. The Jayhawks made it to their first BCS bowl where they defeated Virginia Tech. Kansas' meteoric rise was much more surprising to me, so I wouldn't be surprised if they came back to earth this season. South Florida looks like they have more staying power and will probably be favored in this game. This game would have been even more fun if it had happened last season, but still should be a good matchup this season.
9 - Clemson vs Alabama in Atlanta, August 30
Here are two teams with a lot of potential and a lot of question marks, and they'll both be showcased in one of the most intriguing games of the opening weekend. Clemson will probably have their best team in years, but they haven't shown the ability to get over the hump and have a huge season. Alabama is waiting on the Return on Investment on the highest paid head coach in the country. Whichever team gets the victory will have an excellent starting point for the rest of the year.
10 - UCLA at BYU, September 13
No matter how many times these two teams play each other, I know I won't get tired of watching it. UCLA won the regular season matchup while BYU took the victory in the bowl game. BYU should have an even better team than last year's 11-2 squad and will have home field advantage. UCLA upgraded their coach and will have been battle-tested after the Tennessee game. On a weekend with several fun matchups, don't let this one go unnoticed.
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Paper Games
(Games that look good on paper, but I don't expect a close game)
1 - USC at Virginia, August 30
Anyone else surprised that this is their first meeting? USC has impressed me during the Pete Carroll era with their non-conference slates. USC has the 'anyone, anytime, anywhere' attitude that every elite team should. The only problem is that most teams can't compete with USC. Virginia is one of those teams.
2 - Missouri vs Illinois in St. Louis, August 30
Everybody is going to hop on this bandwagon a year late. Missouri should be just as good as last year if not better, but I fully expect Illinois to regress a lot. I don't think anybody will be able to fill Rashard Mendenhall's shoes and the offense will suffer. Mizzou in a route.
3 - Miami at Florida, September 6
Miami has fallen into the category of former great programs until they show me something different. Just to remind you how far they've fallen, let's take a look at what they accomplished last season. They went 5-7 and missed a bowl game. That doesn't sound too terrible until you see that three of the five wins were against Marshall, FIU, and Duke. Those three teams won a combined five games last season. That's not the kind of team that keeps a national title contender like Florida up at night.
4 - Arkansas at Texas, September 13
Normally this game would be in the Top Ten non-conference games. I have to put it here because of the heavy personnel losses incurred by Arkansas added to a new head coach coming in. Bobby Petrino will need time to rebuild the Arkansas program, so Texas should win easily this time around.
5 - Oklahoma at Washington, September 13
Washington seems like it's always one of the trendy picks for a big turnaround season, except it never happens. Oklahoma will again be one of the best teams in the country. Don't listen to any potential upset rumors about this game.
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Under the Radar Games
(Games that won't get the national attention they deserve)
1 - Utah at Michigan, August 30
Actually this game might become a trendy upset pick later. Be the first to predict the upset in a game that could be eerily similar to Michigan's opener last season. Michigan has a ton of problems, but they will need to be prepared for a Utah team that has improved every year under head coach Kyle Whittingham.
2 - Virginia Tech vs East Carolina in Charlotte, August 30
Remember how close this game was last season? This time it's being played at a neutral site.
3 - Oregon St at Penn St, September 6
Oregon St never seems to get any national recognition, but an early win in State College could change all that. As an added bonus, everybody will be making jokes about how the Beavers are going to play at Beaver Stadium.
4 - Michigan St at California, August 30
It's a shame that this game will get lost in the shuffle of all of the interesting games on opening weekend. Both teams finished last season with a 7-6 record, but both showed great potential. California started out hot with big wins over Tennessee and Oregon, but then crashed and burned over the second half of the season. Michigan St lost six games, but none of them were by more than a touchdown, and two were in overtime.
*Oddly enough, that's the third Big Ten - Pac Ten matchup mentioned in this column. Add in the Oregon - Purdue game on September 13, and it seems like everyone wants to be in a mini-Rose Bowl to start the season*
5 - Iowa at Pittsburgh, September 20
Like Washington, I'm always hearing about how Pitt is going to turn it around every year. Similarly, I always hear about how great a coach Kirk Ferentz of Iowa is. After three seasons of mediocrity from both teams, I'm having trouble believing both of those statements. So why is this game on the list? Because it wouldn't surprise me if winning this game is the difference between going bowling or not for both teams. I have to include a game that has that much implication on the postseason.
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Best Non-BCS games
(Games that involve at least one non-BCS team not mentioned previously)
1 - Boise St at Southern Miss, October 11
This game didn't live up to the hype last season, but I'm giving it another chance since it won't be on the Smurf Turf this time.
2 - Colorado St vs Colorado in Denver, August 30
The Rocky Mountain Showdown is a great rivalry game that has been decided by a touchdown or less in each of the past six seasons.
3 - UCF at Miami, October 11
I'm not sure if UCF has the talent to play with Miami, but I won't have to speculate for much longer. The two teams battle it out on the field midway through the season.
4 - BYU at Washington, September 6
Beating a Pac-10 team on the road is always good publicity and would be a huge confidence boost going into my #10 Best Non-Conference Game the following week.
5 - Tulsa at Arkansas, November 1
The high octane Tulsa offense catches Arkansas in what will be a definite down year for them. Todd Graham coached teams are known for not playing much defense, but all of Arkansas' offensive firepower has to be replaced. I don't think the Razorbacks can win a shootout with the Golden Hurricane.
*Fresno St and East Carolina's non-conference slates are good enough to be mentioned in the next section instead of on a game-by-game basis here*
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Best Non-Conference Schedules
(In alphabetical order)
Colorado
East Carolina
Fresno St
UCLA
USC
West Virginia
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Worst Non-Conference Schedules
(in alphabetical order)
Indiana
Kansas
Kansas St
LSU
Texas Tech
Best Overall Games
1 - Ohio St at USC, September 13
This is the big one. These two teams have been dominant on an annual basis during the BCS era. These two teams have squared off in the Rose Bowl seven times (USC leads series 4-3 with wins in the last three.) These two teams are early national championship contenders. These two teams really need this win to stay in the hunt to play in Miami on January 8, 2009. As a college football fan, there is not a better regular season game than this one.
2 - Georgia at Arizona St, September 20
Georgia finished last season as the hottest team in the country and will probably be a preseason Top 5 team. Arizona St and first year head coach Dennis Erickson won 10 games and were in the hunt for a conference championship until the end of the season. Both teams will be looking to make a statement before the conference schedule is in full swing.
3 - Auburn at West Virginia, October 23
The two most notable things about this game are its late date in the thick of the conference schedule and the fact that it's on a Thursday night. Both teams have a bye the previous week, so I don't think the midweek date will affect the outcome much. Auburn has a relatively easy road schedule, so this will be one of the only times they will be tested away from home. West Virginia will have broken in their new head coach Bill Stewart by week nine of the season. It's difficult to pick this game before I see these teams play.
4 - Tennessee at UCLA, September 1
The dropoff from the first three games to this one is significant. Looking at this game reminds me of how much risk is involved in creating elite matchups without much reward. This game looks great on paper between two storied programs, but don't forget that UCLA finished last season with a losing record after the bowl game and replaced their coach. New coach Rick Neuheisel has proven that he can win, but it's hard to imagine him doing so in the first game against a team like Tennessee. Hopefully I'm wrong and we'll get to see a great game on the Monday after opening weekend.
5 - Virginia Tech at Nebraska, September 27
Very similar to the previous game since it has a famous program with a new head coach trying to turn the program around playing host to another famous program in better shape. The two things that could make it a better matchup is that Nebraska will have had a few weeks to get used to Bo Pelini's system, and Virginia Tech isn't the type of team to score points in bunches.
6 - Wisconsin at Fresno St, September 13
Both teams will begin the season with hopes of a BCS bowl game. The loser will suffer a setback that might prevent those dreams from coming true. This game reminds me a lot of the Missouri-Illinois game last season, where nobody thought much of it until the end of the season and the teams had a combined 21 wins. Don't be surprised if Wisconsin and Fresno St combine for as many or more wins when the season is over.
7 - Cincinnati at Oklahoma, September 6
I debated putting this game on the list, because it's likely that Oklahoma will win big. I decided to add it since Cincinnati had a huge first year under head coach Brian Kelly, and now they have the chance to play a 'prove-it' game against a team with national title aspirations. I'm not a big believer in moral victories, but just showing that you belong on the same field as Oklahoma is a step in the right direction. If Oklahoma wins 51-13 like they did last year against Miami, well that wouldn't surprise me either.
8 - Kansas at South Florida, September 13
Two teams square off that found themselves in the national spotlight last year. South Florida won its first six games including matchups against Auburn and West Virginia. Three straight losses took them out of the spotlight and the chance for a Big East title, but now the average fan was aware of them. Kansas started off an amazing 11-0 before falling to Missouri. The Jayhawks made it to their first BCS bowl where they defeated Virginia Tech. Kansas' meteoric rise was much more surprising to me, so I wouldn't be surprised if they came back to earth this season. South Florida looks like they have more staying power and will probably be favored in this game. This game would have been even more fun if it had happened last season, but still should be a good matchup this season.
9 - Clemson vs Alabama in Atlanta, August 30
Here are two teams with a lot of potential and a lot of question marks, and they'll both be showcased in one of the most intriguing games of the opening weekend. Clemson will probably have their best team in years, but they haven't shown the ability to get over the hump and have a huge season. Alabama is waiting on the Return on Investment on the highest paid head coach in the country. Whichever team gets the victory will have an excellent starting point for the rest of the year.
10 - UCLA at BYU, September 13
No matter how many times these two teams play each other, I know I won't get tired of watching it. UCLA won the regular season matchup while BYU took the victory in the bowl game. BYU should have an even better team than last year's 11-2 squad and will have home field advantage. UCLA upgraded their coach and will have been battle-tested after the Tennessee game. On a weekend with several fun matchups, don't let this one go unnoticed.
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Paper Games
(Games that look good on paper, but I don't expect a close game)
1 - USC at Virginia, August 30
Anyone else surprised that this is their first meeting? USC has impressed me during the Pete Carroll era with their non-conference slates. USC has the 'anyone, anytime, anywhere' attitude that every elite team should. The only problem is that most teams can't compete with USC. Virginia is one of those teams.
2 - Missouri vs Illinois in St. Louis, August 30
Everybody is going to hop on this bandwagon a year late. Missouri should be just as good as last year if not better, but I fully expect Illinois to regress a lot. I don't think anybody will be able to fill Rashard Mendenhall's shoes and the offense will suffer. Mizzou in a route.
3 - Miami at Florida, September 6
Miami has fallen into the category of former great programs until they show me something different. Just to remind you how far they've fallen, let's take a look at what they accomplished last season. They went 5-7 and missed a bowl game. That doesn't sound too terrible until you see that three of the five wins were against Marshall, FIU, and Duke. Those three teams won a combined five games last season. That's not the kind of team that keeps a national title contender like Florida up at night.
4 - Arkansas at Texas, September 13
Normally this game would be in the Top Ten non-conference games. I have to put it here because of the heavy personnel losses incurred by Arkansas added to a new head coach coming in. Bobby Petrino will need time to rebuild the Arkansas program, so Texas should win easily this time around.
5 - Oklahoma at Washington, September 13
Washington seems like it's always one of the trendy picks for a big turnaround season, except it never happens. Oklahoma will again be one of the best teams in the country. Don't listen to any potential upset rumors about this game.
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Under the Radar Games
(Games that won't get the national attention they deserve)
1 - Utah at Michigan, August 30
Actually this game might become a trendy upset pick later. Be the first to predict the upset in a game that could be eerily similar to Michigan's opener last season. Michigan has a ton of problems, but they will need to be prepared for a Utah team that has improved every year under head coach Kyle Whittingham.
2 - Virginia Tech vs East Carolina in Charlotte, August 30
Remember how close this game was last season? This time it's being played at a neutral site.
3 - Oregon St at Penn St, September 6
Oregon St never seems to get any national recognition, but an early win in State College could change all that. As an added bonus, everybody will be making jokes about how the Beavers are going to play at Beaver Stadium.
4 - Michigan St at California, August 30
It's a shame that this game will get lost in the shuffle of all of the interesting games on opening weekend. Both teams finished last season with a 7-6 record, but both showed great potential. California started out hot with big wins over Tennessee and Oregon, but then crashed and burned over the second half of the season. Michigan St lost six games, but none of them were by more than a touchdown, and two were in overtime.
*Oddly enough, that's the third Big Ten - Pac Ten matchup mentioned in this column. Add in the Oregon - Purdue game on September 13, and it seems like everyone wants to be in a mini-Rose Bowl to start the season*
5 - Iowa at Pittsburgh, September 20
Like Washington, I'm always hearing about how Pitt is going to turn it around every year. Similarly, I always hear about how great a coach Kirk Ferentz of Iowa is. After three seasons of mediocrity from both teams, I'm having trouble believing both of those statements. So why is this game on the list? Because it wouldn't surprise me if winning this game is the difference between going bowling or not for both teams. I have to include a game that has that much implication on the postseason.
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Best Non-BCS games
(Games that involve at least one non-BCS team not mentioned previously)
1 - Boise St at Southern Miss, October 11
This game didn't live up to the hype last season, but I'm giving it another chance since it won't be on the Smurf Turf this time.
2 - Colorado St vs Colorado in Denver, August 30
The Rocky Mountain Showdown is a great rivalry game that has been decided by a touchdown or less in each of the past six seasons.
3 - UCF at Miami, October 11
I'm not sure if UCF has the talent to play with Miami, but I won't have to speculate for much longer. The two teams battle it out on the field midway through the season.
4 - BYU at Washington, September 6
Beating a Pac-10 team on the road is always good publicity and would be a huge confidence boost going into my #10 Best Non-Conference Game the following week.
5 - Tulsa at Arkansas, November 1
The high octane Tulsa offense catches Arkansas in what will be a definite down year for them. Todd Graham coached teams are known for not playing much defense, but all of Arkansas' offensive firepower has to be replaced. I don't think the Razorbacks can win a shootout with the Golden Hurricane.
*Fresno St and East Carolina's non-conference slates are good enough to be mentioned in the next section instead of on a game-by-game basis here*
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Best Non-Conference Schedules
(In alphabetical order)
Colorado
- Colorado St in Denver, August 30
- Eastern Washington, September 6
- West Virginia, September 18
- Florida St in Jacksonville, September 27
East Carolina
- Virginia Tech in Charlotte, August 30
- West Virginia, September 6
- @ NC State, September 20
- @ Virginia, October 11
Fresno St
- @ Rutgers, September 1
- Wisconsin, September 13
- @ Toledo, September 20
- @ UCLA, September 27
UCLA
- Tennessee, September 1
- @ BYU, September 13
- Fresno St, September 27
USC
- @ Virginia, August 30
- Ohio St, September 13
- Notre Dame, November 29
West Virginia
- Villanova, August 30
- @ East Carolina, September 6
- @ Colorado, September 18
- Marshall, September 27
- Auburn, October 23
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Worst Non-Conference Schedules
(in alphabetical order)
Indiana
- Western Kentucky, August 30
- Murray St, September 6
- Ball St, September 20
- Central Michigan, November 1
Kansas
- FIU, August 30
- Louisiana Tech, September 6
- @ South Florida, September 13
- Sam Houston St, September 20
Kansas St
- North Texas, August 30
- Montana St, September 6
- @ Louisville, September 17
- Louisiana Lafayette, September 27
LSU
- Appalachian St, August 30
- Troy, September 6
- North Texas, September 13
- Tulane, November 1
Texas Tech
- Eastern Washington, August 30
- @ Nevada, September 6
- SMU, September 13
- Massachusetts, September 20
Thursday, May 1, 2008
1998-2007: Ten years of the BCS
After ten years of the BCS, it seems like now is a good time to look back at what has transpired. This post will be limited to the BCS Bowl data and my observations drawn from the data. When national champions are mentioned, I am only looking at one anointed by the BCS. The AP champion is irrelevant in this study. The BCS bowls are the Orange Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl, the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, and as of two years ago the BCS National Championship Game.National Championships by Conference
Every BCS conference has won a National Championship and has played in at least two title games. The most successful conference by far is the SEC. They are 4-0 in championship games and are the only conference with a winning record. The next best conference is the Big XII. They've played in more title games (5) than any other conference and are the only other conference to have won multiple championships (2-3). Of the six BCS conferences, three of them have only had a single representative in the title game: Florida State for the ACC, Ohio State for the Big Ten, and USC for the Pac-10.
National Championships by Team
In the BCS era, only LSU has won more than one championship. Florida State, Ohio State, and Oklahoma have played in the most game with three each and have an identical record of 1-2. There have been nine different champions in ten years, but surprisingly only 11 teams have played in a title game. Perhaps even more surprising is that more teams have played in multiple title games (6), than teams that have only played in one (5). Taking it a step further, that means six programs represent 15 of the 20 teams to play for a championship. Those six programs are the aforementioned LSU, Florida St, Ohio State and Oklahoma joined with Miami and USC. Nebraska and Virginia Tech represent the only two teams who have played for a national championship but haven't won one. The other three teams that won their only appearance are Florida, Tennessee, and Texas.
BCS Bowls by Conference
Over the past decade, the Big Ten has sent 17 teams to BCS bowls, more than any other conference. The SEC is second with 15. In that time span, the ACC and Big East have failed to send an at-large team to a BCS bowl. Notre Dame has gone as an at-large three times, and a non-BCS team has gone three times. The SEC has had the most success with 11 wins and has a record of seven games over .500. The only other conferences with winning records are the Big East, the Pac-10, and the Mountain West who won its only invite in 2004. The worst conference has without a doubt been the ACC. They have only won one game in ten tries. That win was in 1999, meaning they are riding an eight-game losing streak. The WAC won one of its two games. None of the other non-BCS conferences have received an invite.
BCS Bowls by Conference
Florida State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and USC have played in the most BCS bowl games with six apiece. Not surprisingly, all four have won a national championship. USC has won the most games with five, and LSU has the best record with a 4-0 mark. Texas, West Virginia, and Wisconsin are the only other teams that have played in multiple games and are undefeated. All three teams are 2-0. Florida State has lost the most games with five, and Oklahoma is second with four. The only teams to go winless in multiple trips are Notre Dame and Virginia Tech with three losses each, and Illinois with two. 40 different teams, or just over a third of all teams, have gone to a BCS bowl. 37 of the 66 current BCS teams, or 56%, have gone to a BCS bowl. With so many different teams getting invites, only 17 of them have gone to more than one.
Not only has the ACC had the worst record in BCS bowl games, they've also had the least amount of parity. Florida State has gone 60% of the time, leaving only three other teams to earn bids. Half of the current Big East and half of the SEC have been invited, while the Big Ten and the Pac-10 have had seven different teams go. The Pac-10 has had the most parity with seven out of the ten teams representing the conference at some point. That stat is even more impressive since USC has been invited six times.
Final Thoughts
I was surprised to learn how diverse the BCS bowl attendees were. I was even more surprised to see how exclusive the National Championship games were. Six schools represent 75% of the teams that have had an opportunity to play for a BCS Championship. Compare that to 40 schools that have filled 84 BCS Bowl spots. The most successful teams over the past decade have been LSU (4-0, two championships), USC (5-1, one championship), Ohio State (4-2, one championship), Florida (3-1, one championship), and Miami (3-1, one championship). Everyone seems to forget that Ohio State won their first four BCS bowls, and instead they focus on just the past two losses in the title games.
I've never heard anybody question the validity of the ACC as an auto-bid league, but seeing that they have only won 10% of their BCS games and never put a second team in the mix, you have to wonder just how deserving they are. On the other hand, the Big East is constantly maligned and questioned as to whether they should have an auto-bid. While they've failed to put a second team in, they do have a 6-4 record and the same record as the ACC and Big Ten in national title games (1-2). Since the ACC invaded the Big East and took its top teams, the Big East has still been competitive and actually is 3-1 in the past four years. Only the SEC has a better record in the period, and the Pac-10 has the same record. The ACC, Big XII, and Big Ten all had worse records. Perhaps it's time to stop all the Big East bashing, because the facts don't support it. It also warrants mentioning that the Mountain West and the WAC have as many wins in BCS games as the ACC does, even though those conferences have only played in one and two games respectively. You may think I'm knocking the ACC, but I don't want to take away their auto-bid. Instead, I want the top non-BCS team to get an auto-bid every season. If history is any indication, the non-BCS teams would be more successful than their ACC counterparts in the future, so why not let them in.
Friday, January 18, 2008
2007 Coaching Carousel
Arkansas
Former Coach: Houston Nutt
New Coach: Bobby Petrino
Nutt had a successful tenure at Arkansas, leading them to a 75-48 record, eight bowl games (but only two wins), and two SEC West titles. He was offered a contract extension, but division within the fanbase led him to resign. He was hired by Mississippi just a few days later. Petrino left the Atlanta Falcons job after 13 games for the Arkansas job, becoming the latest successful college head coach to fail in the NFL. He has already made quite an impact by bringing in Michigan transfer QB Ryan Mallett (Link). I can imagine Petrino needing a couple of years to start matching Nutt's success, but as long as he sticks around, I think it's a good hire.
Baylor
Former Coach: Guy Morriss
New Coach: Art Briles
Morriss averaged less than four wins in his half-decade at Baylor and was never able to get to bowl eligibility. He did everything he could to improve the offense, but it still finished at the bottom of the Big 12 in points scored. The defense also would have been to worst in the Big 12 in points allowed if it weren't for Nebraska. Briles is a former high school head coach who has only been coaching college for the past five years. He led a downtrodden Houston team to four bowl games in that span, although he never won one. He will definitely improve the offense, but this Baylor team needs help on both sides of the ball. I think this hire is a little questionable, and I think he will only be slightly more successful than Morriss.
Colorado State
Former Coach: Sonny Lubick
New Coach: Steve Fairchild
Lubick is nothing short of a legend at Colorado State, and it's an end of an era now that he's gone. He coached there for 15 seasons, winning six conference titles, going to nine bowl games, and compiling a 108-74 record. Fairchild is an alum of the university and was the OC of the Buffalo Bills most recently. It's difficult to predict how this will turn out, but I do know he has his work cut out for him competing with all of the good programs in the Mountain West.
Duke
Former Coach: Ted Roof
New Coach: David Cutcliffe
Roof was only able to win six games out of the 51 he coached at Duke. Duke has not had a winning season or gone to a bowl game since 1994. The job to turn the program around falls to David Cutcliffe, former Tennessee OC and Mississippi head coach. He inherits a program with more talent and potential than the 1-11 record indicates. It's a challenging job to undertake, but I think Duke hired the best man available for the job.
Georgia Tech
Former Coach: Chan Gailey
New Coach: Paul Johnson
Gailey never had a losing season at Georgia Tech, winning at least seven games and reaching a bowl game in each of his six years there. He won the Coastal Division in 2006 and lost to Wake Forest in the ACC Conference Championship. For all of the positives, it seemed like he underachieved often and he never beat in-state rival Georgia. Georgia Tech made a great hire with Johnson, who had revived Navy's program. I look forward to see what he can accomplish with the talent level at Georgia Tech. I don't even expect much of a transition year in 2008.
Hawaii
Former Coach: June Jones
New Coach: Greg McMackin
Jones accomplished everything that was possible at Hawaii and probably feels like there is nothing else he can prove while being a coach there. He left after the Sugar Bowl to take his high octane offense to SMU on the mainland. Hawaii is one of the most challenging jobs with the extensive travel and extremely limited recruiting budget. It makes sense to promote from within so that the new head coach already understands those difficulties. McMackin looks to be the right guy for the job, although I doubt he will be able to even come close to Jones' success.
Houston
Former Coach: Art Briles
New Coach: Kevin Sumlin
Briles had four winning seasons out of five at Houston, and he parlayed that success into a better paying job at Baylor. I'm sure that Houston didn't want to see him leave. He will be replaced by Kevin Sumlin, who was the co-OC for Oklahoma for the past two seasons. Sumlin will attempt to continue with one of the best offenses in C-USA, one that ranked second it total yards and third in points scored this past season. Anytime you hire a coordinator without any prior head coaching experience, it's going to be a gamble. Still, I see no reason why Sumlin can't sustain and build on Houston's recent success.
Michigan
Former Coach: Lloyd Carr
New Coach: Rich Rodriguez
Lloyd Carr ended a long and wondrous career with Michigan that included winning over three-quarters of the games he coached and a National Championship in 1997. He ended with a big win over Florida in the Capital One Bowl to go out on a high note. Michigan hired Rodriguez as his replacement. Rodriguez led West Virginia to six straight 8+ win seasons, at least a share of the conference title in four years, and two BCS Bowl wins. Next season will be very interesting for the Michigan offense as several of the top players graduated or left early, the backup QB transferred to Arkansas, and Rodriguez will attempt to install his spread offense. I think Rodriguez is a great hire in the long term, but he may not have the Wolverines competing for conference championships for a couple of years.
Mississippi
Former Coach: Ed Orgeron
New Coach: Houston Nutt
Orgeron was given the boot after Mississippi went winless in conference play for the first time since 1982. In his three seasons, the Rebels never showed any progress and only won 3-4 games each year. While Nutt wasn't always the most popular guy at Arkansas, he proved that he could compete in the SEC West, so there's no reason to think he won't do the same at Mississippi. He should have Mississippi bowling in two or three seasons.
Navy
Former Coach: Paul Johnson
New Coach: Ken Niumatalolo
Johnson left to fill the Georgia Tech vacancy and will be tough to replace. He won 8-10 games in the last five of his six seasons as head coach at Navy. That type of success will be hard to replicate. Niumatalolo was an assistant under Johnson for the past six seasons and will continue to run the same triple option offense. He coached Navy in a close loss in the Poinsettia Bowl against Utah. Johnson was too good of a coach for me to believe that Miumatalolo will keep Navy at the same level, but he was impressive in the bowl game.
Nebraska
Former Coach: Bill Callahan
New Coach: Bo Pelini
Callahan was let go after a disappointing 2007 season, especially on the defensive side. Nebraska was last in the conference in points allowed, rushing yards and total yards allowed, and takeaways. The Cornhuskers were also in the bottom ten nationally in those four categories as well. Twice in the four years under Callahan, Nebraska was outscored by its opponents. Before he was hired, that had not happened since the 1968 season. It's not surprising that Nebraska hired a defensive specialist as the new head coach. Pelini was most recently the DC at LSU. Previously he was the DC at Oklahoma and Nebraska. He was the DC at Nebraska the year that Frank Solich was fired as the head coach. Pelini was named the interim head coach for the Alamo Bowl, and he led them to a 17-3 victory over Michigan State. Pelini should be a good hire, but his biggest obstacle is an improving Big 12 North.
Northern Illinois
Former Coach: Joe Novak
New Coach: Jerry Kill
Novak retired after 12 seasons as head coach of Northern Illinois. He led them to seven winning seasons and two bowl games. The Huskies had gone 21 years without playing in the postseason until Novak brought them to Silicon Valley Classic in 2004. He had a disappointing final season, but he was still a great coach for the Huskies. He will be replaced by Jerry Kill, the former head coach at Southern Illinois. Kill led the Salukis to the FCS playoffs for the past five seasons. They made it to the semifinals in 2007 where they lost to Delaware. He even beat Northern Illinois in 2007. Kill should be a good hire and will have Northern Illinois back to contending for MAC championships soon.
SMU
Former Coach: Phil Bennett
New Coach: June Jones
Phil Bennett was on his way to rebuilding a downtrodden SMU program and was a four point loss to Rice in 2006 away from bringing them to their first bowl game since 1984. He lost his job in the middle of a disastrous 2007 season in which SMU only won a single game. Five of the eleven losses were by a touchdown or less, so there's more talent on this team that the record indicates. I think Bennett got a raw deal from the administration after one bad season. SMU opened up their pocketbook and hired June Jones away from Hawaii at $2 million a year. Jones will have enough talent to start implementing his run-and-shoot offense right away. Jones improved Hawaii by nine wins in his first season there. He probably won't match that number at SMU, but look for a marked improvement from them next season. While I don't like the way that Bennett was treated, Jones is obviously an upgrade over him. Look for SMU to be in the postseason in the next year or two.
Southern Miss
Former Coach: Jeff Bower
New Coach: Larry Fedora
While I thought that Phil Bennett was treated unfairly at SMU, it doesn't even compare to Southern Miss forcing out Jeff Bower. All Bower did was lead them to 15 winning seasons in 17 years as head coach, 10 bowl games, four conference titles (one shared) and another East division crown. Three times he was named the conference coach of the year and in 2004 he was named the conference coach of the decade. Larry Fedora takes over at the helm now. He was most recently the OC for Oklahoma State. Fedora has never been a head coach outside of high school. He may do well at Southern Miss, but I doubt he will match Bower's consistency and longevity.
Texas A&M
Former Coach: Dennis Franchione
New Coach: Mike Sherman
Dennis Franchione resigned after a tumultuous five year with a mediocre record and scandal involving selling inside information to boosters. He led the Aggies to three bowl games, but all three were losses and two were blowouts by more than 30 points each. Sherman was the offensive line coach for Texas A&M from 1989-1993. He was also the head coach of the Green Bay Packers from 2000-2005. He spent the next two years with the Houston Texans before being hired by Texas A&M. I think this is a solid hire, but he will have difficulty in the tough Big 12 South.
UCLA
Former Coach: Karl Dorrell
New Coach: Rick Neuheisel
Dorrell took UCLA to a bowl game every season in his five year stint as head coach, but they were still known as an underachieving ball club. Dorrell also went 1-4 in those bowl games and only won more than seven games in a season once. The UCLA program has a ton of potential, and it was obvious that Dorrell wasn't going to be the one to help them reach that potential. UCLA made an interesting hire in Neuheisel. He was a proven winner at Colorado and Washington, but he had a run-in with the NCAA over gambling charges. He was never sanctioned by the NCAA, and he actually won a $4.5 million lawsuit against them. It seems inevitable that the NCAA will be watching Neuheisel like a hawk, just waiting for him to make a mistake. I'm surprised that UCLA wants that much scrutiny, but Neuheisel is a good coach.
West Virginia
Former Coach: Rich Rodriguez
New Coach: Bill Stewart
Rodriguez left a successful career at West Virginia for the Michigan head coaching job. He leaves behind a talented team, and the right coach can continue to win with them. Time will tell if Stewart is that coach. After a huge Fiesta Bowl win, it was obvious that the players wanted him to be the head coach. Since he has already won over the locker room, now he just has to prove that he can handle all of the other responsibilities of a head coach. This hire appears to be the right one in the short term, but I'm not sure if he will have the long term success that Rodriguez would have had.
Washington State
Former Coach: Bill Doba
New Coach: Paul Wulff
Doba and Washington State mutually decided for him to not return as head coach in 2008. Doba led Washington State to a ten win season and a Holiday Bowl win in his first season. For the next four seasons, he never had a winning season again or led the team to a bowl game. Washington State is often considered one of the toughest places to be a coach and recruit because of its remote location. They made the best hire possible by bringing in a coach who has had success in a similar situation. Wulff was the head coach of Eastern Washington, another remote school that plays at the FCS level. He coached them for eight seasons and coached them to a winning record in seven of those years. They played in the FCS playoffs in three of the last four seasons. He is also a Washington State alum who played center for the Cougars.
Former Coach: Houston Nutt
New Coach: Bobby Petrino
Nutt had a successful tenure at Arkansas, leading them to a 75-48 record, eight bowl games (but only two wins), and two SEC West titles. He was offered a contract extension, but division within the fanbase led him to resign. He was hired by Mississippi just a few days later. Petrino left the Atlanta Falcons job after 13 games for the Arkansas job, becoming the latest successful college head coach to fail in the NFL. He has already made quite an impact by bringing in Michigan transfer QB Ryan Mallett (Link). I can imagine Petrino needing a couple of years to start matching Nutt's success, but as long as he sticks around, I think it's a good hire.
Baylor
Former Coach: Guy Morriss
New Coach: Art Briles
Morriss averaged less than four wins in his half-decade at Baylor and was never able to get to bowl eligibility. He did everything he could to improve the offense, but it still finished at the bottom of the Big 12 in points scored. The defense also would have been to worst in the Big 12 in points allowed if it weren't for Nebraska. Briles is a former high school head coach who has only been coaching college for the past five years. He led a downtrodden Houston team to four bowl games in that span, although he never won one. He will definitely improve the offense, but this Baylor team needs help on both sides of the ball. I think this hire is a little questionable, and I think he will only be slightly more successful than Morriss.
Colorado State
Former Coach: Sonny Lubick
New Coach: Steve Fairchild
Lubick is nothing short of a legend at Colorado State, and it's an end of an era now that he's gone. He coached there for 15 seasons, winning six conference titles, going to nine bowl games, and compiling a 108-74 record. Fairchild is an alum of the university and was the OC of the Buffalo Bills most recently. It's difficult to predict how this will turn out, but I do know he has his work cut out for him competing with all of the good programs in the Mountain West.
Duke
Former Coach: Ted Roof
New Coach: David Cutcliffe
Roof was only able to win six games out of the 51 he coached at Duke. Duke has not had a winning season or gone to a bowl game since 1994. The job to turn the program around falls to David Cutcliffe, former Tennessee OC and Mississippi head coach. He inherits a program with more talent and potential than the 1-11 record indicates. It's a challenging job to undertake, but I think Duke hired the best man available for the job.
Georgia Tech
Former Coach: Chan Gailey
New Coach: Paul Johnson
Gailey never had a losing season at Georgia Tech, winning at least seven games and reaching a bowl game in each of his six years there. He won the Coastal Division in 2006 and lost to Wake Forest in the ACC Conference Championship. For all of the positives, it seemed like he underachieved often and he never beat in-state rival Georgia. Georgia Tech made a great hire with Johnson, who had revived Navy's program. I look forward to see what he can accomplish with the talent level at Georgia Tech. I don't even expect much of a transition year in 2008.
Hawaii
Former Coach: June Jones
New Coach: Greg McMackin
Jones accomplished everything that was possible at Hawaii and probably feels like there is nothing else he can prove while being a coach there. He left after the Sugar Bowl to take his high octane offense to SMU on the mainland. Hawaii is one of the most challenging jobs with the extensive travel and extremely limited recruiting budget. It makes sense to promote from within so that the new head coach already understands those difficulties. McMackin looks to be the right guy for the job, although I doubt he will be able to even come close to Jones' success.
Houston
Former Coach: Art Briles
New Coach: Kevin Sumlin
Briles had four winning seasons out of five at Houston, and he parlayed that success into a better paying job at Baylor. I'm sure that Houston didn't want to see him leave. He will be replaced by Kevin Sumlin, who was the co-OC for Oklahoma for the past two seasons. Sumlin will attempt to continue with one of the best offenses in C-USA, one that ranked second it total yards and third in points scored this past season. Anytime you hire a coordinator without any prior head coaching experience, it's going to be a gamble. Still, I see no reason why Sumlin can't sustain and build on Houston's recent success.
Michigan
Former Coach: Lloyd Carr
New Coach: Rich Rodriguez
Lloyd Carr ended a long and wondrous career with Michigan that included winning over three-quarters of the games he coached and a National Championship in 1997. He ended with a big win over Florida in the Capital One Bowl to go out on a high note. Michigan hired Rodriguez as his replacement. Rodriguez led West Virginia to six straight 8+ win seasons, at least a share of the conference title in four years, and two BCS Bowl wins. Next season will be very interesting for the Michigan offense as several of the top players graduated or left early, the backup QB transferred to Arkansas, and Rodriguez will attempt to install his spread offense. I think Rodriguez is a great hire in the long term, but he may not have the Wolverines competing for conference championships for a couple of years.
Mississippi
Former Coach: Ed Orgeron
New Coach: Houston Nutt
Orgeron was given the boot after Mississippi went winless in conference play for the first time since 1982. In his three seasons, the Rebels never showed any progress and only won 3-4 games each year. While Nutt wasn't always the most popular guy at Arkansas, he proved that he could compete in the SEC West, so there's no reason to think he won't do the same at Mississippi. He should have Mississippi bowling in two or three seasons.
Navy
Former Coach: Paul Johnson
New Coach: Ken Niumatalolo
Johnson left to fill the Georgia Tech vacancy and will be tough to replace. He won 8-10 games in the last five of his six seasons as head coach at Navy. That type of success will be hard to replicate. Niumatalolo was an assistant under Johnson for the past six seasons and will continue to run the same triple option offense. He coached Navy in a close loss in the Poinsettia Bowl against Utah. Johnson was too good of a coach for me to believe that Miumatalolo will keep Navy at the same level, but he was impressive in the bowl game.
Nebraska
Former Coach: Bill Callahan
New Coach: Bo Pelini
Callahan was let go after a disappointing 2007 season, especially on the defensive side. Nebraska was last in the conference in points allowed, rushing yards and total yards allowed, and takeaways. The Cornhuskers were also in the bottom ten nationally in those four categories as well. Twice in the four years under Callahan, Nebraska was outscored by its opponents. Before he was hired, that had not happened since the 1968 season. It's not surprising that Nebraska hired a defensive specialist as the new head coach. Pelini was most recently the DC at LSU. Previously he was the DC at Oklahoma and Nebraska. He was the DC at Nebraska the year that Frank Solich was fired as the head coach. Pelini was named the interim head coach for the Alamo Bowl, and he led them to a 17-3 victory over Michigan State. Pelini should be a good hire, but his biggest obstacle is an improving Big 12 North.
Northern Illinois
Former Coach: Joe Novak
New Coach: Jerry Kill
Novak retired after 12 seasons as head coach of Northern Illinois. He led them to seven winning seasons and two bowl games. The Huskies had gone 21 years without playing in the postseason until Novak brought them to Silicon Valley Classic in 2004. He had a disappointing final season, but he was still a great coach for the Huskies. He will be replaced by Jerry Kill, the former head coach at Southern Illinois. Kill led the Salukis to the FCS playoffs for the past five seasons. They made it to the semifinals in 2007 where they lost to Delaware. He even beat Northern Illinois in 2007. Kill should be a good hire and will have Northern Illinois back to contending for MAC championships soon.
SMU
Former Coach: Phil Bennett
New Coach: June Jones
Phil Bennett was on his way to rebuilding a downtrodden SMU program and was a four point loss to Rice in 2006 away from bringing them to their first bowl game since 1984. He lost his job in the middle of a disastrous 2007 season in which SMU only won a single game. Five of the eleven losses were by a touchdown or less, so there's more talent on this team that the record indicates. I think Bennett got a raw deal from the administration after one bad season. SMU opened up their pocketbook and hired June Jones away from Hawaii at $2 million a year. Jones will have enough talent to start implementing his run-and-shoot offense right away. Jones improved Hawaii by nine wins in his first season there. He probably won't match that number at SMU, but look for a marked improvement from them next season. While I don't like the way that Bennett was treated, Jones is obviously an upgrade over him. Look for SMU to be in the postseason in the next year or two.
Southern Miss
Former Coach: Jeff Bower
New Coach: Larry Fedora
While I thought that Phil Bennett was treated unfairly at SMU, it doesn't even compare to Southern Miss forcing out Jeff Bower. All Bower did was lead them to 15 winning seasons in 17 years as head coach, 10 bowl games, four conference titles (one shared) and another East division crown. Three times he was named the conference coach of the year and in 2004 he was named the conference coach of the decade. Larry Fedora takes over at the helm now. He was most recently the OC for Oklahoma State. Fedora has never been a head coach outside of high school. He may do well at Southern Miss, but I doubt he will match Bower's consistency and longevity.
Texas A&M
Former Coach: Dennis Franchione
New Coach: Mike Sherman
Dennis Franchione resigned after a tumultuous five year with a mediocre record and scandal involving selling inside information to boosters. He led the Aggies to three bowl games, but all three were losses and two were blowouts by more than 30 points each. Sherman was the offensive line coach for Texas A&M from 1989-1993. He was also the head coach of the Green Bay Packers from 2000-2005. He spent the next two years with the Houston Texans before being hired by Texas A&M. I think this is a solid hire, but he will have difficulty in the tough Big 12 South.
UCLA
Former Coach: Karl Dorrell
New Coach: Rick Neuheisel
Dorrell took UCLA to a bowl game every season in his five year stint as head coach, but they were still known as an underachieving ball club. Dorrell also went 1-4 in those bowl games and only won more than seven games in a season once. The UCLA program has a ton of potential, and it was obvious that Dorrell wasn't going to be the one to help them reach that potential. UCLA made an interesting hire in Neuheisel. He was a proven winner at Colorado and Washington, but he had a run-in with the NCAA over gambling charges. He was never sanctioned by the NCAA, and he actually won a $4.5 million lawsuit against them. It seems inevitable that the NCAA will be watching Neuheisel like a hawk, just waiting for him to make a mistake. I'm surprised that UCLA wants that much scrutiny, but Neuheisel is a good coach.
West Virginia
Former Coach: Rich Rodriguez
New Coach: Bill Stewart
Rodriguez left a successful career at West Virginia for the Michigan head coaching job. He leaves behind a talented team, and the right coach can continue to win with them. Time will tell if Stewart is that coach. After a huge Fiesta Bowl win, it was obvious that the players wanted him to be the head coach. Since he has already won over the locker room, now he just has to prove that he can handle all of the other responsibilities of a head coach. This hire appears to be the right one in the short term, but I'm not sure if he will have the long term success that Rodriguez would have had.
Washington State
Former Coach: Bill Doba
New Coach: Paul Wulff
Doba and Washington State mutually decided for him to not return as head coach in 2008. Doba led Washington State to a ten win season and a Holiday Bowl win in his first season. For the next four seasons, he never had a winning season again or led the team to a bowl game. Washington State is often considered one of the toughest places to be a coach and recruit because of its remote location. They made the best hire possible by bringing in a coach who has had success in a similar situation. Wulff was the head coach of Eastern Washington, another remote school that plays at the FCS level. He coached them for eight seasons and coached them to a winning record in seven of those years. They played in the FCS playoffs in three of the last four seasons. He is also a Washington State alum who played center for the Cougars.
2007 Season Wrapup
My Picks:
Week 1 58-12 (82.86%)
Week 2 52-9 (85.25%)
Week 3 46-19 (70.77%)
Week 4 45-15 (75.00%)
Week 5 44-15 (74.58%)
Week 6 37-19 (66.07%)
Week 7 39-16 (70.91%)
Week 8 39-16 (70.91%)
Week 9 38-14 (73.08%)
Week 10 43-11 (79.63%)
Week 11 38-17 (69.09%)
Week 12 42-10 (80.77%)
Week 13 36-12 (75.00%)
Week 14 12-6 (66.67%)
Bowls 22-10 (74.62%)
Season 591-201 (74.62%)
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* Congratulations to LSU, the 2007 FBS National Champion.
* My friend over at Rogers Poll finished picking games at an even 75%, three games ahead of me.
* This year was one of the most competitive bowl seasons I can remember. 17 games were settled by a touchdown or less. Eight of those games were settled by three points or less. Oddly enough, with over half of the bowl games being settled by a score or less, only one went into overtime (Chik-fil-A Bowl). Most people seem to forget how many good games there were since the BCS Bowls only had one close game.
* Things I'll remember from the bowl season: BYU blocking a last second UCLA field goal to secure a win, Nevada getting shut out for the first time in their history as a FBS team, Bill Stewart coaching himself into the head coaching job at West Virginia, Missouri and Kansas both proving they should have been in BCS Bowls, and the state of Florida sending five teams to bowls and then only registering a single win (FAU).
* Conference Record in Bowl Games (sorted by games over .500)
SEC (7-2)
MWC (4-1)
Big 12 (5-3)
Pac 10 (4-2)
Big East (3-2)
Sun Belt (1-0)
Indy (0-1)
Big Ten (3-5)
C-USA (2-4)
WAC (1-3)
MAC (0-3)
ACC (2-6)
* The SEC wins the conference bragging rights, but the Mountain West actually had the best winning percentage. Unfortunately, the MWC isn't getting enough recognition for their performance.
* Fresno State was the only team that kept the WAC from having a completely embarrassing bowl season. Nothing saved the MAC from that fate.
Week 1 58-12 (82.86%)
Week 2 52-9 (85.25%)
Week 3 46-19 (70.77%)
Week 4 45-15 (75.00%)
Week 5 44-15 (74.58%)
Week 6 37-19 (66.07%)
Week 7 39-16 (70.91%)
Week 8 39-16 (70.91%)
Week 9 38-14 (73.08%)
Week 10 43-11 (79.63%)
Week 11 38-17 (69.09%)
Week 12 42-10 (80.77%)
Week 13 36-12 (75.00%)
Week 14 12-6 (66.67%)
Bowls 22-10 (74.62%)
Season 591-201 (74.62%)
-------------------------------
* Congratulations to LSU, the 2007 FBS National Champion.
* My friend over at Rogers Poll finished picking games at an even 75%, three games ahead of me.
* This year was one of the most competitive bowl seasons I can remember. 17 games were settled by a touchdown or less. Eight of those games were settled by three points or less. Oddly enough, with over half of the bowl games being settled by a score or less, only one went into overtime (Chik-fil-A Bowl). Most people seem to forget how many good games there were since the BCS Bowls only had one close game.
* Things I'll remember from the bowl season: BYU blocking a last second UCLA field goal to secure a win, Nevada getting shut out for the first time in their history as a FBS team, Bill Stewart coaching himself into the head coaching job at West Virginia, Missouri and Kansas both proving they should have been in BCS Bowls, and the state of Florida sending five teams to bowls and then only registering a single win (FAU).
* Conference Record in Bowl Games (sorted by games over .500)
SEC (7-2)
MWC (4-1)
Big 12 (5-3)
Pac 10 (4-2)
Big East (3-2)
Sun Belt (1-0)
Indy (0-1)
Big Ten (3-5)
C-USA (2-4)
WAC (1-3)
MAC (0-3)
ACC (2-6)
* The SEC wins the conference bragging rights, but the Mountain West actually had the best winning percentage. Unfortunately, the MWC isn't getting enough recognition for their performance.
* Fresno State was the only team that kept the WAC from having a completely embarrassing bowl season. Nothing saved the MAC from that fate.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Final Top 25
1 - LSU (3)
2 - Missouri (6)
3 - West Virginia (7)
4 - Georgia (8)
5 - Oklahoma (2)
6 - USC (9)
7 - Virginia Tech (5)
8 - Ohio St (4)
9 - Hawaii (1)
10 - Kansas (10)
11 - Boston College (12)
12 - BYU (17)
13 - Texas (19)
14 - South Florida (11)
15 - Tennessee (22)
16 - Illinois (13)
17 - Cincinnati (20)
18 - Clemson (14)
19 - Oregon (21)
20 - Boise St (15)
21 - Texas Tech (UR)
22 - Florida (18)
23 - Arizona St (16)
24 - Auburn (UR)
25 - UCF (UR)
Added - Texas Tech, Auburn, UCF
Dropped - Virginia, Connecticut, Wisconsin
2 - Missouri (6)
3 - West Virginia (7)
4 - Georgia (8)
5 - Oklahoma (2)
6 - USC (9)
7 - Virginia Tech (5)
8 - Ohio St (4)
9 - Hawaii (1)
10 - Kansas (10)
11 - Boston College (12)
12 - BYU (17)
13 - Texas (19)
14 - South Florida (11)
15 - Tennessee (22)
16 - Illinois (13)
17 - Cincinnati (20)
18 - Clemson (14)
19 - Oregon (21)
20 - Boise St (15)
21 - Texas Tech (UR)
22 - Florida (18)
23 - Arizona St (16)
24 - Auburn (UR)
25 - UCF (UR)
Added - Texas Tech, Auburn, UCF
Dropped - Virginia, Connecticut, Wisconsin
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Bowl Picks for January 2-7
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Glendale, Arizona
January 2, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX
Oklahoma
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Wins: Missouri (11-2) twice
Worst Loss: Colorado (6-6)
The Rundown: Oklahoma had another big season, winning the Big 12 title and will be going to Fiesta Bowl. They beat six bowl teams along the way, including four who won nine or more games. The two losses were on the road by a combined total of 10 points to bowl teams. The offense was second in the Big 12 in points scored and the defense was second in the Big 12 in points allowed. A late loss in the season to Texas Tech kept them out of the National Championship game, but they were able to show up strong and dominate Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. They were led by QB Sam Bradford, who set the NCAA freshman record for touchdown passes with 34.
West Virginia
Record: 10-2 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-1
Best Win: Cincinnati (9-3)
Worst Loss: Pittsburgh (5-7)
The Rundown: Going into the final weekend of the regular season, it seemed all but guaranteed that West Virginia was going to the National Championship game. All that stood in their way was a home game against a Pittsburgh team with a losing record. Pitt was able to get the win and send the Mountaineers to the Fiesta Bowl instead. The only other loss was a South Florida by eight points. Along the way they beat six bowl teams, including three on the road. In their 10 wins, they never scored fewer than 28 points. In their losses, they scored only 13 and 9 points. After the regular season, head coach Rich Rodriguez left to take the Michigan vacancy. At this posting, the West Virginia head coach position has not been filled.
The Matchup: Oklahoma is playing very well right now while West Virginia is reeling from a bad loss to end the season. West Virginia is also without their head coach for this game. Both teams have high scoring offenses and stingy defenses, but I think Oklahoma is a little better on both sides of the ball.
The Pick: Oklahoma
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FedEx Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Miami, Florida
January 3, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX
Virginia Tech
Record: 11-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: Boston College (10-3)
The Rundown: Virginia Tech won the ACC title and is going to the Orange Bowl. Both of the losses on the season were to teams that won ten games each. They beat six bowl teams along the way, including earning a split with Boston College in the conference championship game. They were beat soundly in the second week of the season by LSU, but they have continuously improved since that game to become one of the top ten teams in the country. The last five games were all wins, and four were against bowl teams.
Kansas
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Texas A&M (7-5)
Worst Loss: Missouri (11-2)
The Rundown: Kansas was one of the most surprising teams in the country this year. They won their first 11 games before falling to Missouri in the finale. They didn’t play a tough schedule, playing only five bowl teams. They beat four of those teams, including two with 6-6 records. That means they were only 2-1 against teams with winning records. They were the highest scoring team in the Big 12, averaging more than 44 points per game. The defense was also impressive, allowing a conference low 16 points per game. Kansas is still a questionable BCS team, and I think Missouri was the more deserving team.
The Matchup: Kansas played one elite team this season and was beat with relative ease. Virginia Tech is coming off an elite win over Boston College. The VT defense should be able to shut down the high scoring Kansas offense. This game could be disappointing for what is normally a great bowl game.
The Pick: Virginia Tech
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International Bowl
Rutgers vs. Ball State
Toronto, Ontario
January 5, 2008
Noon Eastern
ESPN2
Rutgers
Record: 7-5 (3-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Louisville (6-6)
The Rundown: Rutgers was supposed to be a contender for the Big East title, but instead finished with a losing record in conference play. Rutgers only beat two bowl teams, Navy and South Florida on a short week. They played four close games, earning a split in those games. The main difference between last season when they won 11 games and this season when they won seven games is the defense. The defense is allowing 7.5 more points per games this season.
Ball State
Record: 7-5 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Navy (8-4)
Worst Loss: Miami Ohio (6-7)
The Rundown: Ball State was one of the better teams in the MAC and will be playing in their first bowl game since 1996. Ball State has never won a bowl game, losing the only three in the program’s history. Navy was the only bowl team they beat, one of two common opponents with Rutgers. The other common opponent was Buffalo, and both teams in the International Bowl won both of those games. Ball State lost two games this season by a single point, so their best case record was 9-3. They also lost three close games, so they also could have finished 4-8 easily.
The Matchup: As long as Rutgers is prepared and shows up to this game, they should be able to win the game as they are the better team.
The Pick: Rutgers
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GMAC Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa
Mobile, Alabama
January 6, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Bowling Green
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 0-2
Best Win: Buffalo (5-7)
Worst Loss: Ohio (6-6)
The Rundown: Bowling Green finished with the best overall record in the conference, but didn’t play in the conference championship game because Miami (Ohio) owned the tiebreaker. Instead they will be the only MAC East team to play in the postseason. The defense put up similar numbers as last season, but the offense was greatly improved. They went from averaging 19.5 points per game last year to 32 this year.
Tulsa
Record: 9-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: BYU (10-2)
Worst Loss: UTEP (4-8)
The Rundown: Tulsa went to its second conference championship game in three years, this time under first year head coach Todd Graham. They had a huge win against a great BYU team, but the only other bowl team they beat was Houston. That Houston game decided the C-USA West division. The only bad loss was against UTEP on the road by a single point. The offense was the highest scoring team in the C-USA, averaging almost 40 points per game.
The Matchup: These are similar teams as they both score a lot and both give up almost as many points. Tulsa scores more and should be able to light up the Ball State defense.
The Pick: Tulsa
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Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU vs. Ohio State
New Orleans, Louisiana
January 7, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX
LSU
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Win: Virginia Tech (11-2)
Worst Loss: Kentucky (7-5)
The Rundown: LSU was a very interesting team to watch this season. After the first few games, it was obvious that the Tigers were one of the best and most talented teams in the country. When they were ranked #1, they lost in triple overtime to Kentucky. They won the next four games before losing in triple overtime again, this time to Arkansas at home in the regular season finale. They beat Tennessee in the SEC Championship and became the first two-loss team to make it to the BCS National Championship game. After the first three games, LSU was outscoring their opponents 137-7. The next rest of the season was very different, as they played in six close games out of ten.
Ohio State
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 5-1
Best Win: Wisconsin (9-3)
Worst Loss: Illinois (9-3)
The Rundown: Ohio State seemingly backed into the BCS National Championship game, as teams ahead of them kept losing in the two weeks after the Buckeyes’ season was over. Ohio State only lost one game, and that was to Illinois by a touchdown at home. Ohio State beat five bowl teams, but only one that won more than eight games (Wisconsin). The defense was one of the best in the country, allowing less than 11 points per game. They held their opponents to a touchdown or less in 7 of 12 games. The only team to score more than 17 points against them was in the game they lost.
The Matchup: Ohio State got embarrassed in last year’s game, but I don’t expect that to happen twice in a row. On the other hand, LSU has dominated its past two bowl opponents under head coach Les Miles. Ohio State should play much better this time around, especially the defense, but it will not be enough against a healthy and prepared LSU squad.
The Pick: LSU
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Glendale, Arizona
January 2, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX
Oklahoma
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Wins: Missouri (11-2) twice
Worst Loss: Colorado (6-6)
The Rundown: Oklahoma had another big season, winning the Big 12 title and will be going to Fiesta Bowl. They beat six bowl teams along the way, including four who won nine or more games. The two losses were on the road by a combined total of 10 points to bowl teams. The offense was second in the Big 12 in points scored and the defense was second in the Big 12 in points allowed. A late loss in the season to Texas Tech kept them out of the National Championship game, but they were able to show up strong and dominate Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. They were led by QB Sam Bradford, who set the NCAA freshman record for touchdown passes with 34.
West Virginia
Record: 10-2 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-1
Best Win: Cincinnati (9-3)
Worst Loss: Pittsburgh (5-7)
The Rundown: Going into the final weekend of the regular season, it seemed all but guaranteed that West Virginia was going to the National Championship game. All that stood in their way was a home game against a Pittsburgh team with a losing record. Pitt was able to get the win and send the Mountaineers to the Fiesta Bowl instead. The only other loss was a South Florida by eight points. Along the way they beat six bowl teams, including three on the road. In their 10 wins, they never scored fewer than 28 points. In their losses, they scored only 13 and 9 points. After the regular season, head coach Rich Rodriguez left to take the Michigan vacancy. At this posting, the West Virginia head coach position has not been filled.
The Matchup: Oklahoma is playing very well right now while West Virginia is reeling from a bad loss to end the season. West Virginia is also without their head coach for this game. Both teams have high scoring offenses and stingy defenses, but I think Oklahoma is a little better on both sides of the ball.
The Pick: Oklahoma
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FedEx Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Miami, Florida
January 3, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX
Virginia Tech
Record: 11-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: Boston College (10-3)
The Rundown: Virginia Tech won the ACC title and is going to the Orange Bowl. Both of the losses on the season were to teams that won ten games each. They beat six bowl teams along the way, including earning a split with Boston College in the conference championship game. They were beat soundly in the second week of the season by LSU, but they have continuously improved since that game to become one of the top ten teams in the country. The last five games were all wins, and four were against bowl teams.
Kansas
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Texas A&M (7-5)
Worst Loss: Missouri (11-2)
The Rundown: Kansas was one of the most surprising teams in the country this year. They won their first 11 games before falling to Missouri in the finale. They didn’t play a tough schedule, playing only five bowl teams. They beat four of those teams, including two with 6-6 records. That means they were only 2-1 against teams with winning records. They were the highest scoring team in the Big 12, averaging more than 44 points per game. The defense was also impressive, allowing a conference low 16 points per game. Kansas is still a questionable BCS team, and I think Missouri was the more deserving team.
The Matchup: Kansas played one elite team this season and was beat with relative ease. Virginia Tech is coming off an elite win over Boston College. The VT defense should be able to shut down the high scoring Kansas offense. This game could be disappointing for what is normally a great bowl game.
The Pick: Virginia Tech
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International Bowl
Rutgers vs. Ball State
Toronto, Ontario
January 5, 2008
Noon Eastern
ESPN2
Rutgers
Record: 7-5 (3-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Louisville (6-6)
The Rundown: Rutgers was supposed to be a contender for the Big East title, but instead finished with a losing record in conference play. Rutgers only beat two bowl teams, Navy and South Florida on a short week. They played four close games, earning a split in those games. The main difference between last season when they won 11 games and this season when they won seven games is the defense. The defense is allowing 7.5 more points per games this season.
Ball State
Record: 7-5 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Navy (8-4)
Worst Loss: Miami Ohio (6-7)
The Rundown: Ball State was one of the better teams in the MAC and will be playing in their first bowl game since 1996. Ball State has never won a bowl game, losing the only three in the program’s history. Navy was the only bowl team they beat, one of two common opponents with Rutgers. The other common opponent was Buffalo, and both teams in the International Bowl won both of those games. Ball State lost two games this season by a single point, so their best case record was 9-3. They also lost three close games, so they also could have finished 4-8 easily.
The Matchup: As long as Rutgers is prepared and shows up to this game, they should be able to win the game as they are the better team.
The Pick: Rutgers
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GMAC Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa
Mobile, Alabama
January 6, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN
Bowling Green
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 0-2
Best Win: Buffalo (5-7)
Worst Loss: Ohio (6-6)
The Rundown: Bowling Green finished with the best overall record in the conference, but didn’t play in the conference championship game because Miami (Ohio) owned the tiebreaker. Instead they will be the only MAC East team to play in the postseason. The defense put up similar numbers as last season, but the offense was greatly improved. They went from averaging 19.5 points per game last year to 32 this year.
Tulsa
Record: 9-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: BYU (10-2)
Worst Loss: UTEP (4-8)
The Rundown: Tulsa went to its second conference championship game in three years, this time under first year head coach Todd Graham. They had a huge win against a great BYU team, but the only other bowl team they beat was Houston. That Houston game decided the C-USA West division. The only bad loss was against UTEP on the road by a single point. The offense was the highest scoring team in the C-USA, averaging almost 40 points per game.
The Matchup: These are similar teams as they both score a lot and both give up almost as many points. Tulsa scores more and should be able to light up the Ball State defense.
The Pick: Tulsa
----------------------------------------------------
Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU vs. Ohio State
New Orleans, Louisiana
January 7, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX
LSU
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Win: Virginia Tech (11-2)
Worst Loss: Kentucky (7-5)
The Rundown: LSU was a very interesting team to watch this season. After the first few games, it was obvious that the Tigers were one of the best and most talented teams in the country. When they were ranked #1, they lost in triple overtime to Kentucky. They won the next four games before losing in triple overtime again, this time to Arkansas at home in the regular season finale. They beat Tennessee in the SEC Championship and became the first two-loss team to make it to the BCS National Championship game. After the first three games, LSU was outscoring their opponents 137-7. The next rest of the season was very different, as they played in six close games out of ten.
Ohio State
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 5-1
Best Win: Wisconsin (9-3)
Worst Loss: Illinois (9-3)
The Rundown: Ohio State seemingly backed into the BCS National Championship game, as teams ahead of them kept losing in the two weeks after the Buckeyes’ season was over. Ohio State only lost one game, and that was to Illinois by a touchdown at home. Ohio State beat five bowl teams, but only one that won more than eight games (Wisconsin). The defense was one of the best in the country, allowing less than 11 points per game. They held their opponents to a touchdown or less in 7 of 12 games. The only team to score more than 17 points against them was in the game they lost.
The Matchup: Ohio State got embarrassed in last year’s game, but I don’t expect that to happen twice in a row. On the other hand, LSU has dominated its past two bowl opponents under head coach Les Miles. Ohio State should play much better this time around, especially the defense, but it will not be enough against a healthy and prepared LSU squad.
The Pick: LSU
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