**updated with bowl picks for the rest of 2011**
Week 1: 69-9 (88.5%)
Week 2: 53-12 (81.5%)
Week 3: 49-15 (76.6%)
Week 4: 46-14 (76.7%)
Week 5: 40-15 (72.7%)
Week 6: 40-12 (76.9%)
Week 7: 35-15 (70%)
Week 8: 32-20 (61.5%)
Week 9: 44-10 (81.5%)
Week 10: 35-18 (66%)
Week 11: 41-16 (71.9%)
Week 12: 42-18 (72%)
Week 13: 43-11 (79.6%)
Week 14: 20-3 (87%)
Season: 589-188 (75.8%)
Saturday, December 17
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Temple (8-4) vs Wyoming (8-4)
Three of Temple's four losses were by a combined 11 points. Temple outscored its opponents by an average of over 16 points per game and only twice was Temple held to under 200 rushing yards (both losses). On the other hand, Wyoming scored the same amount of points as it gave up despite being four games over .500. Wyoming was helped by being 4-0 in close games. Wyoming doesn't have the same defense as Temple. Temple is a power rushing team and Wyoming gives up over 230 rushing yards per game. Wyoming's defense is opportunistic though, and has an advantage with a +14 turnover margin.
The Pick: Temple
Confidence: 27
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio (9-4) vs Utah State (7-5)
Ohio lost the MAC Championship Game after going up 20-0 on Northern Illinois at the half. The offense stagnating and getting shut out in the second half was a major disappointment for a team that hasn't won a postseason game under Frank Solich. He's 0-2 in conference championship games and 0-3 in bowl games. In fact, Ohio has never won a bowl game (0-5). Ohio was 3-3 in close games, and the worst loss was at Rutgers by 12 points. Utah State is probably best known for pushing the reigning national champions Auburn in the opening weekend. That loss was one of four close losses by the Aggies, but they also had five close wins. I'm guessing this one will be close too. Both teams finished strong with Ohio winning its last four regular season games and Utah State winning its last five games.
The Pick: Ohio
Confidence: 15
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
San Diego State (8-4) vs Louisiana Lafayette (8-4)
Rocky Long took a two-year break from coaching but came back when Brady Hoke was hired away by Michigan. SDSU had its top two wide receivers drafted last year, so it relied heavily on stud running back Ronnie Hillman. He didn't disappoint, finishing third nationally in rushing yards with 1656 and added 19 rushing touchdowns. Louisiana-Lafayette had a great first season under Mark Hudspeth and is playing in its first major bowl game. Hudspeth should be proud of what he accomplished, but I just don't think his team is close to being equal with Long's team.
The Pick: San Diego State
Confidence: 26
Tuesday, December 20
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
FIU (8-4) vs Marshall (6-6)
FIU started off the season as the darling of the Sun Belt with non-conference wins over Louisville and UCF. They lost a couple of games and actually finished fourth in their conference. FIU has one of the most explosive players in the country in T.Y Hilton who has scored eight times as a receiver and returner. Marshall barely slipped into the postseason with a one-point win over a terrible Memphis team and then needing overtime to win a home game against East Carolina. Marshall was outscored by its opponents by 98 points over the season. Marshall is led on defense by Vinny Curry, who is sixth in sacks with 11 this year and has also forced five fumbles.
The Pick: FIU
Confidence: 4
Wednesday, December 21
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
TCU (10-2) vs Louisiana Tech (8-4)
TCU just missed out on going to another BCS bowl game despite returning only eight starters. The two losses were by two points to Baylor and in overtime to SMU. TCU picked up five wins over bowl teams, obviously the most impressive one was beating Boise State on the blue turf. The defense took a step back from 2010's dominant version, but the offense still rang up over 40 points per game. Louisiana Tech had a great season that included a conference championship and winning the last seven straight games. They also played both participants of the C-USA championship game in close losses and pushed Mississippi State to overtime. They picked up a signature win in a 27-7 beatdown of Mississippi, one of five road games they won. Unfortunately, Louisiana Tech got paired up with a great team and I can't imagine them continuing their winning streak.
The Pick: TCU
Confidence: 34
Thursday, December 22
Maaco Bowl
Arizona State (6-6) vs Boise State (11-1)
This is the most mismatched bowl game of the season. Arizona State started off strong with an amazing 43-22 win over USC. They then went on to lose five of the last six games and missed out on playing in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game. Head coach Dennis Erickson is gone, but he will coach the bowl game. Boise State simply had another great season and was a single point loss away from going unbeaten again. Many people disparage Boise's schedule, but the Broncos did beat seven bowl teams. The seniors on this Boise team are 5-0 against AQ conference teams and this should be the sixth win for them. Also, the seniors have only lost three times (by a combined five points), and two of those were to TCU.
The Pick: Boise State
Confidence: 35
Saturday, December 24
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Nevada (7-5) vs Southern Miss (11-2)
Nevada won every game it played against a team with a losing record and lost every game it played against a bowl team. The Wolfpack did play three of those bowl teams close, and getting blown out at Oregon and Boise State is understandable. Nevada averages more than 250 rushing yards and 250 passing yards per game. Nevada has been far less efficient on offense this season, posting a few more yards per game but over eight fewer points. Southern Miss won C-USA by beating previously undefeated Houston in the championship game. They also beat three other bowl teams including the WAC champion Louisiana Tech. Southern Miss is clearly the better team, but will be without head coach Larry Fedora who left for the North Carolina job.
The Pick: Southern Miss
Confidence: 33
Monday, December 26
AdvoCare v100 Independence Bowl
Missouri (7-5) vs North Carolina (7-5)
Missouri disappointed this season with only a 7-5 record. It might be tempting to blame this regression on the loss of Blaine Gabbert, but the offense actually scored more points and gained more yards. The offense did change to a more run-heavy attack due to QB James Franklin's dual-threat abilities and the emergence of RB Henry Josey. The two sophomores combined for over 2000 rushing yards and 22 rushing touchdowns. The defense was a bigger culprit, giving up an additional touchdown per game and forcing nine fewer turnovers. Missouri also struggled on the road, going 1-4 with the only win at Texas A&M. North Carolina fired head coach Butch Davis a week before the preseason and named an interim coach for the year. Given the circumstances plus the loss of nine players to the NFL Draft, he had a pretty good year. North Carolina was similarly bad on the road, posting a 1-4 record with the only win at East Carolina.
The Pick: Missouri
Confidence: 8
Tuesday, December 27
Little Caesars Bowl
Western Michigan (7-5) vs Purdue (6-6)
Western Michigan is led by senior wide receiver Jordan White who leads the country in receptions and receiving yards, and is second in receiving touchdowns. Western Michigan beat Connecticut on the road and almost upset Illinois too. Purdue returns to the postseason for the first time since 2007. The Boilermakers only won a single road game, and that was against 1-11 Indiana. The question will be whether Purdue can score enough to keep up with Western Michigan. Purdue only scored more than 27 points in a game three times this season.
The Pick: Western Michigan
Confidence: 7
Belk Bowl
Louisville (7-5) vs NC State (7-5)
Louisville started off the year really slow with a 2-4 record. The two wins were unimpressive showings against Murray State and Kentucky. They turned it on in the second half, winning five of the last six. The offense sputtered, averaging less than 22 points per game for the year. Fortunately the defense was strong, which kept them in every game. Their worst loss was only be nine points. NC State's season mirrored Louisville's. They started 2-3 with wins only over FCS opponents. Then they won five of the last seven to become bowl eligible. They are capable of beating good teams (Clemson) and losing to bad teams (Boston College). NC State led the country in interceptions with 24.
The Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 3
Wednesday, December 28
Military Bowl
Toledo (8-4) vs Air Force (7-5)
Toledo won eight games, but lost three others by no more than five points. Toledo's offense is high-powered, averaging more than 42 points and almost 500 yards per game. The defense gives up a lot of points and yards, so the Rockets have to outscore most of their opponents. Toledo has a +16 turnover margin, which is much better than Air Force's even margin. Air Force beat two FCS teams and five FBS teams that didn't make it to the postseason. The five losses were all to bowl teams. Air Force was second in the country in rushing offense behind Army. Air Force also passed for over 1600 yards, so it isn't a completely one-dimensional attack. I expect both sides to put up a lot of points in this defense-optional affair. I would be more concerned about Toledo losing its head coach if it hadn't promoted its offensive coordinator, who should keep things rolling at least in the bowl game.
The Pick: Toledo
Confidence: 30
Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl
California (7-5) vs Texas (7-5)
Cal was a very uninteresting team to me this season. The most intriguing thing was when they played Stanford to a field goal game near the end of the season. They do have a trio of offensive playmakers who should all return next season. QB Zach Maynard transferred from Buffalo and helped Cal to almost 1000 more passing yards than last season. Junior RB Isi Sofele had over rushing 1200 yards and nine touchdowns, and sophomore WR Keenan Allen had over 1200 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Texas improved from last season, but still has a long way to go to make it back to where they've been for most of Mack Brown's tenure. The Longhorns won at least nine games in each of his first twelve seasons. Texas had the best defense in the Big XII based on yardage, but turnovers and a struggling offense hurt them in losses. In the seven wins, Texas had a +8 turnover margin and scored 37 points per game. In the five losses, it was a -13 margin and 17 points scored. That wasn't due just to the schedule, since they had four wins over bowl teams. It was more that Texas just couldn't beat the top teams in the conference this year.
The Pick: Texas
Confidence: 20
Thursday, December 29
Champs Sports Bowl
Florida State (8-4) vs Notre Dame (8-4)
A battle between two 8-4 teams I expected to be better in the preseason. Florida State lost three games by five points or fewer, but lacked any quality wins. At least they have state bragging rights, beating Miami and Florida for the second straight year. The defense was second nationally in run defense, sixth in total defense, fourth in scoring defense, and had two shutouts. My favorite random fact about the Seminoles is that they lost consecutive games by the score of 35-30 and then won consecutive games by the score of 41-16. Notre Dame could have won ten games in the regular season if the Irish could have held onto the ball. A -7 turnover margin in the first two games turned into two close losses. Turnovers remained a problem all season, with Notre Dame posting a negative margin in nine games and finished third worst in the country. WR Michael Floyd will be playing his last game with the Irish and he already is the program's career leader in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns by a large margin.
The Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 6
Valero Alamo Bowl
Washington (7-5) vs Baylor (9-3)
Each season under Steve Sarkisian, Washington has improved by one win in the regular season. Despite the improvements, Washington hasn't broken into the upper tier of the Pac-12. Just like last season, Washington finished with a winning record despite being outscored by its opponents. The Huskies were 5-0 in games decided by less than 12 points. It's concerning that each year under Sarkisian, the defense has gotten worse. Baylor's first Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III has to be excited to face Washington's porous defense. Baylor is second in the country in total offense and sixth in scoring offense. Baylor won its last five games, including wins over Oklahoma and Texas. Both offenses are much better than both defenses, so expect a lot of fireworks.
The Pick: Baylor
Confidence: 29
Friday, December 30
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
In BYU's first season as an independent, they played a very soft schedule inflating their win-loss record to 9-3. BYU went 1-3 against bowl teams, with the only win over Utah State. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall has led BYU to a bowl game in each of his seven seasons with a postseason record of 4-2. Tulsa played four teams in my top 15, and lost to all of them by 20+ points. They won the other eight games by an average of 24 points. Only one team played them within a touchdown. Tulsa is another team that struggles with turnovers. They were tied as the second worst team in country with 32 turnovers lost. The Golden Hurricane force a lot of turnovers too, so their margin wasn't too bad.
The Pick: Tulsa
Confidence: 9
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Rutgers (8-4) vs Iowa State (6-6)
Rutgers surprisingly won eight games with a stout defense and forcing more than 2.5 turnovers per game. Rutgers offense was relatively inept, turning the ball over itself 28 times and rushing for five yards or fewer on four separate occasions. Rutgers has already won a game at Yankee Stadium when they beat Army there earlier this year. Iowa State is best known for upsetting Oklahoma State's perfect season. Other than that game, the Cyclones just haven't been that impressive. They were outscored by over six points per game because they were 5-1 in close games.
The Pick: Rutgers
Confidence: 19
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State (6-6) vs Wake Forest (6-6)
Mississippi State was one of the more disappointing teams in the country, unable to build on the success Dan Mullen had in his second season. The Bulldogs only won two SEC games and were only close in two others. The offense took a noticeable step back this season, while the defense gave up almost the exact same number of points and yards. Wake Forest started 4-1 with only an overtime loss, but then won just twice more the rest of the season. Wake Forest was outscored by exactly one point per game on the season, but also only turned the ball over once per game. Wake Forest lost badly at home to Vanderbilt in the season finale, so I don't have much hope for them against another SEC team in the bowl game.
The Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 31
Insight Bowl
Iowa (7-5) vs Oklahoma (9-3)
Iowa had a slightly down year due mainly to the defense taking a step back. Iowa won every home game except against Michigan State, and lost every road game except against Purdue. Iowa picked up a nice win against Michigan, but also had a terrible loss against Minnesota. Oklahoma was considered to be a national title contender, but then lost two close games and got blasted by rival Oklahoma State in the Bedlam game. The Sooners played one of the toughest schedules in the country, beating seven bowl teams and Ball State who was bowl eligible but not invited. Oklahoma will be playing without its best running back and wide receiver, which has hurt the offense at the end of the season. Bob Stoops had lost five out of six straight bowl games, but has evened up his postseason record with bowl victories the past two years.
The Pick: Oklahoma
Confidence: 32
Saturday, December 31
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Texas A&M finished a disappointing 6-6 and were an amazingly horrible 1-5 in close games. A&M outscored its opponents by 131 points and outgained them by over 1300 yards for the season. Because of the collapses, A&M fired head coach Mike Sherman and interim head coach Tim DeRuyter has accepted the vacancy at Fresno State. I think A&M is the much better team, but motivation and focus could be factors. Northwestern had the stats more similar to a 6-6 team, including going 2-2 in close games. Northwestern gains more than 400 yards per game, but they also give up over 400 yards per game. This bowl game could be another high-scoring affair.
The Pick: Texas A&M
Confidence: 24
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech (8-4) vs Utah (7-5)
Georgia Tech started off with six straight wins, but then only won twice over the second half of the season. As is typical in Paul Johnson's triple option offense, Georgia Tech finished third nationally in rushing yards per game. One limitation of the option attack is that it is easier to defend with a month to prepare, as is the case in bowl season. That's one reason why Georgia Tech is 0-3 in bowl games under Paul Johnson. Utah finished 7-5 in its first season as a member in the Pac-12. The Utes could have played in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game, but lost in the finale to Colorado. Utah is seventh in the country in rush defense, so it will definitely be strength versus strength.
The Pick: Utah
Confidence: 14
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Illinois (6-6) vs UCLA (6-7)
Illinois is playing without its fired head coach Ron Zook and offensive coordinator Paul Petrino who returned to coach with his brother at Arkansas. Illinois won its first six games and then lost its last six games. The offense scored more than 100 fewer points that last year and the turnover margin went from +8 last year to -8 this year. UCLA is in just as bad of shape as Illinois. UCLA will be without its recently fired head coach Rick Neuheisel. The Bruins also lost the Pac-12 Championship Game and had to petition the NCAA to get a waiver to play in the postseason with a losing record. UCLA was outscored by 110 points this season. With all of the missing coaches, the poor records and the impotent offenses, this might be the worst bowl game of the season.
The Pick: UCLA
Confidence: 5
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Cincinnati (9-3) vs Vanderbilt (6-6)
Cincinnati found a way to win nine games this year in head coach Butch Jones' second season. I tend to harp on turnover margin, but Cincinnati improved by five games this season due in large part due to going from -15 in 2010 to +11 in 2011. Vanderbilt is playing in the postseason for the second time in four years. Not only did the Commodores win six games, they also played four other conference games within a touchdown. Vanderbilt made great strides under first year head coach James Franklin. Being competitive in six of eight conference games is a new identity for Vanderbilt.
The Pick: Vanderbilt
Confidence: 18
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Virginia improved by four wins this season thanks to winning five out of six close games. The Cavaliers outscored their opponents by just 11 points. Virginia appears to be headed in the right direction, while its opponent seems to be in disarray. Auburn is the reigning national champs, but they lost five games including getting handled by the top four teams in the conference. The only good win was at South Carolina. Auburn is dealing with the loss of both coordinators for the bowl game. The offense scored 17 fewer points and gained 170 fewer yards per game compared to last year.
The Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 17
**more bowl picks to be posted next week
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