Life on Top

There are 15 remaining unbeaten teams in the country. Let's take a look at each one to determine the answers to two questions: How good are they, and how good can they be?


Clemson
I had been doubting and underrating Clemson for a couple of weeks. When Clemson beat Auburn, I said that wasn't last year's Auburn team so it was a good win but not great. When Clemson beat Florida State, I took notice. But I also said that FSU quarterback EJ Manual was out and Clemson hasn't even played a road game yet. Let's see what happens when they leave Death Valley. Lane Stadium is the perfect place to prove if you can win on the road. Clemson did that and more, completely dominating Virginia Tech by 20 points and holding the Hokies to only a field goal. Clemson has scored 35 points per game, and they've turned the ball over exactly once in each of their five games. Preseason, I predicted Clemson to go 7-5 and possibly challenge Florida State for the Atlantic crown. Now, Clemson is in the driver's seat for the division with the head-to-head win over the Seminoles, and they look to finish with more than just seven wins. The Tigers will likely win the next two games before being challenged by North Carolina at home and Georgia Tech (the other undefeated team in the ACC) on the road. The season ends with consecutive road dates at NC state and South Carolina. Clemson is 5-0 and has already beaten three of the tougher teams on the schedule. I'm predicting them to finish 10-2 and play in the ACC Championship Game.


Georgia Tech
The offensive stats are eye-popping. Georgia Tech is averaging over 51 points per game, over 378 rushing yards per game and 587 total yards per game. For those of you who don't like math, that means Georgia Tech is still passing for over 200 yards per game. In Georgia Tech's first 40 games under Paul Johnson's triple option offense, they only averaged 105 passing yards per game. While it is early, and the competition has been underwhelming, it appears the Rambling Wreck has a more balanced attack that usual this season. A warning flag could be the defense has allowed at least 21 points in every game this season despite playing Western Carolina, MTSU and Kansas. The schedule set up nicely with the three remaining toughest games at home (Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia.) They do have to travel to Virginia and Miami in consecutive weeks, but the only other road game is at Duke. It's very possible that both Clemson and Georgia Tech will be 8-0 going into that October 29th matchup. I hope ESPN College Gameday makes the trip to Atlanta if that's the case. The Coastal Division will be more competitive than the Atlantic, with North Carolina and Virginia Tech both trying to leapfrog Georgia Tech, so I'm not prepared to call for a rematch of the 2009 ACC Championship Game yet. Still Georgia Tech is much better than my preseason prediction of 7-5. The Yellow Jackets will probably win 9-10 regular season games.


Kansas State
The Wildcats are a surprising 4-0 team with close wins over Eastern Kentucky(!) and Baylor at home and Miami on the road. Those three wins were by a combined eight points. Kansas State deserves credit for what has been accomplished, but I have my doubts about the sustainability of their success. The depth of the Big XII is underrated, and Kansas State gets another tough contest when they host Missouri this week. Despite being the host, the line opened with Missouri favored by 3.5 So Vegas definitely doesn't believe in them. That's followed up by back-to-back road games before an absolutely brutal four-game slate. Kansas State has to play Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and at Texas in a row down the stretch. I think they'll be fortunate to get one win out of those four games. Kansas State is better than my preseason 7-5 record, but not by much. I'll put their ceiling at nine wins and at best an Alamo Bowl appearance.


Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 4-0 as most expected. They've beaten good teams in Florida State and Missouri by ten points each. They play fellow undefeated Texas in the Red River Rivalry this weekend, so one of them will move to 5-0 with a resume-building win. Oklahoma has conference and national title aspirations, so let's see how the rest of the schedule looks. Oklahoma hasn't lost at home since 2005, and only Texas A&M can challenge them in Norman this year. The road slate is much bumpier. Along with the Texas game this weekend, Oklahoma has to travel to Kansas State and Oklahoma State, who also haven't lost yet. They also travel to Kansas and Baylor, but those games shouldn't concern them as much. Oklahoma doesn't look that much improved over last year's version, so I'm sticking with my 11-1 prediction. Unfortunately for them, I think that will get them into the Fiesta Bowl instead of the BCS National Championship Game.


Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is 4-0 with the best win being a nice comeback against Texas A&M on the road when they were down 20-3 at halftime. I would point out the tough road games on Oklahoma State's schedule, but they were 6-0 last year in neutral site and road games. Still, upcoming consecutive road trips to Texas and Missouri will tell a lot about this team. It's possible - although I wouldn't say probable - that both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at 11-0 going into the Bedlam game at the end of the season. Last year's game was huge, but this would be even bigger. The Cowboys will continue to score in bunches, but the defense seems too lacking for a perfect season. Giving up over 30 points to Louisiana Lafayette and Tulsa is unacceptable if you have national championship dreams. I picked them to go 9-3 in the preseason, but I'll bump that up to 10-2 now.


Texas
Texas is 4-0 with a couple of road wins, but the best win so far is ... at Iowa State? The Longhorns need a statement win, so the Red River Rivalry is coming at the perfect time. Win this game, and they might vault into the top five. Texas follows that game with a game against the other undefeated team from the Sooner State. I'm not buying into Texas until I see what they do in those two games. The defense is playing very well, holding opponents to less than 15 points and 300 total yards of offense per game. I still have my doubts about the offense against a better defense. The offense has been very balanced so far, averaging over 200 yards per game both running and passing the ball. One thing Texas has dramatically improved on is taking care of the ball. They are currently +6 in turnover margin, compared to being -12 last year. I predicted Texas to finish 8-4 in the preseason, but I'll move that up to 9-3. They need to win the next two games if they are going to take control of the Big XII title chase.


Texas Tech
Texas Tech might be the unbeaten team I believe in the least. Their four wins against Texas State, at New Mexico, Nevada, and at Kansas is the most unimpressive of the teams with perfect records. That being said, they are taking care of business and will have several challenging games to prove themselves in the conference slate. In fact, beating Texas A&M this Saturday would give the Red Raiders their best win of the season. I predicted Texas Tech to go 6-6, which means they would only win two more games this season. I'll bump them up to 7-5, but I wouldn't expect any more than that.


Michigan
Michigan has started the season 5-0, but they haven't played outside of the Big House yet. The defense has been improved thus far, holding opponents to 51 points in five games, forcing at least two turnovers in every game, and only allowing one opponent (San Diego State) to gain more than 300 total yards of offense. Michigan will play two division road games in the next two weeks that will be a proving ground for the Wolverines. If Michigan can win on the road, they could be in for a huge season. With several of the Big Ten powers looking less formidable, I'll predict Michigan to win nine games instead of the seven I gave them in the preseason.


Illinois
Like Michigan, Illinois has played five straight home games and won them all. Illinois has struggled a little more though, winning the past three by only a field goal each time. The schedule sets up for a huge year for the Illini. Not only do they have eight home games, but the road games are all very winnable against Indiana, Purdue, Penn State and Minnesota. I don't think they are on Wisconsin's level, but I could easily see them finishing second in the Leaders division, ahead of traditional powers Ohio State and Penn State. This team could win double-digit games this season.


Wisconsin
Wisconsin has played four home games and a neutral site game at Soldier Field in Chicago approximately 150 miles from campus. This seems to be a trend among Big Ten teams. Wisconsin has outscored every team by at least 31 points, including a Nebraska team that won ten games last year. Wisconsin does have difficult road games, including at Michigan State and at Ohio State back-to-back at the end of October. They also have to play at Illinois, the other unbeaten team in the Leaders division. While I understand that Wisconsin has yet to play a true road game, I still think Wisconsin will run the table and play in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game and then the BCS National Championship Game.


Houston
Houston has started 5-0, but has already played close games against UCLA, Louisiana Tech and UTEP. Houston had a big season in 2009 with wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State. Even in that season, they still lost three games on the road when you count the conference championship game. That might not be a problem this year with remaining road games against UAB, Tulane and Tulsa. I doubt Houston will win every game in the regular season because of all the close calls already. If Houston does win out and win the C-USA championship game, I wonder if it will be enough to get them into a BCS bowl game. With only one win against a BCS team, their ceiling is probably the Liberty Bowl.


Boise State
Boise State continues to dominate good teams on their way to a 4-0 start. Boise State tried to improve their schedule by moving to the Mountain West Conference. Unfortunately, TCU and San Diego State both appeared to have taken a step back. I would say that it is likely that Boise State will run the table and get invited to a BCS bowl game, but I don't think it will be the BCS National Championship Game.


Stanford
Stanford has been playing better than I expected with the coaching change. They've outscored their opponents by an average of 34.25 points per game and have only turned the ball over once for the entire season. Playing USC on the road is usually difficult, but other than that game, Stanford only has road games against two of the worst teams in the conference. They do have to play top teams Oregon and Notre Dame, as well as solid teams Washington and California at home. My 8-4 preseason prediction was probably a little low, but I don't think they will go undefeated. 10-2 seems more likely now.


Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 with two good conference wins already and a decent non-conference road game at Penn State. The defense has been as good as advertised, holding opponents to fewer than 10 points and 200 total yards of offense per game. Florida had averaged over 250 rushing yards per game until the Alabama defense held them to only 15 yards on the ground. A very strange stat is that Alabama has turned the ball over seven times against Kent State and North Texas, but they have zero turnovers against Penn State, Arkansas and Florida. Alabama has solid road games at Mississippi State and Auburn in the Iron Bowl, but the real remaining test is hosting LSU on November 5. The winner of that game will have the inside track to the BCS National Championship Game.


LSU
LSU has started 5-0 despite playing three ranked teams on the road or at a neutral site. The similarities between them and Alabama are obvious. Alabama has scored 192 points this season, LSU has scored 190. Both teams live off their defense, running game, and preventing mistakes. LSU has only turned the ball over thrice all season. The defense has been stout, allowing approximately 13 points and 260 total yards of offense per game. Alabama has slightly better stats, but LSU has played a slightly tougher schedule. As I wrote in the Alabama blurb, everything is leading up to the big clash in Tuscaloosa.