Coaches on the Hot Seat

With 50 days until the 2010 season kicks off, it's time to start updating my blog. I'll start with my thoughts of programs that are likely to change head coaches after the season. To give you an idea of how much turnover exists in the head coaching ranks, here are some stats. Since 2000, approximately one out of six programs per year change coaches. There were 20 changes last season, exactly one-sixth. Since 2000, only eight programs have kept the same man at the helm. FAU has never changed head coaches, but the program didn't begin until 2001. On the other side of the spectrum, 16 programs are on their fourth head coach. Nobody has gone through five head coaches since 2000 yet.

The Hottest Seats
* Ron Zook at Illinois - Illinois has had four losing seasons and a Rose Bowl appearance. What a strange track record. Despite bringing in highly rated recruiting classes, Zook has had trouble with player development. He brought in a new OC and a new DC in the offseason, possibly to buy himself an extra year. He probably needs a winning season to keep his job. With Missouri, Ohio State and Penn State in the first five games, it will probably be an upward battle.
* Ralph Friedgen at Maryland - I'm surprised that Friedgen didn't get dismissed last year after a two win season. Friedgen has a career record at Maryland of 20 games over .500, but has had losing seasons in four of the last six. The three straight double digit win seasons that kicked off his career keep fading further into the past. Another losing season and he's got to be gone.
* Rich Rodriguez at Michigan - After 33 consecutive bowl appearances, Rodriguez has Michigan on the cusp of missing the postseason for three straight years. The NCAA is also investigating Michigan for violations for failing to comply with practice time rules. Rodriguez may have to win at least eight games to survive. I don't think the new Michigan athletic director or the fanbase will be content with a Little Caesars Pizza Bowl bid.
* Paul Wulff at Washington State - The Cougars haven't even been competitive in the Pac-10 under Wulff. I usually believe in giving coaches ample time to build their program, but the numbers have been so bad that I don't know if there is a reason to think Wulff's record will get better with time. Last season Washington State was outscored by almost four touchdowns per game and their opponents had more than twice as many yards. The season culminated with a 30-0 by rival Washington in the most lopsided Apple Cup game since 2000.

Getting Warmer?
* Dan Hawkins at Colorado - One bowl appearance and zero winning seasons in four years isn't what Colorado expected when they hired Dan Hawkins away from a very successful Boise State program. For whatever reason, he hasn’t been able to translate his success from one program to the other. Hawkins could be saved by Colorado's financial issues. Colorado may not be able to pay his buyout as they try to find the money to pay for the Big XII exit fee.
* Tim Brewster at Minnesota - It may be a little early to be talking about Brewster since he has been bowling twice in his three years. Still Minnesota was expecting more when they fired Glen Mason for similar mediocre records. With the opening of the beautiful new on-campus TCF Bank Stadium, Minnesota wants more than an Insight Bowl team calling it home. Brewster could use a good season, although the prognosticators have them slotted near the bottom of the Big Ten.
* Tom O'Brien at NC State - O'Brien hasn't been able to duplicate his success at Boston College at NC State. Four games under .500 after three seasons is disappointing after leading BC to between 7 and 9 wins per season for eight consecutive years. Barring a disastrous season, O'Brien will probably survive another year. Regardless he could use a big season to cool down his seat.
* Mike Locksley at New Mexico - Locksley's first season was nothing short of a disaster. He took a team that had been bowling in five of the past seven seasons, and he led them to a one win season. He lost to in-state rival New Mexico State for the first time since 2002. He also had off the field issues involving a suspension for striking an assistant and had an age and sexual discrimination lawsuit filed against him. He'll probably be given more time, especially since he is known as a great recruiter. It's rare for a coach to be fired after just two seasons, but I wouldn't be surprised if the New Mexico athletic director has him on a short leash.
* Todd Dodge at North Texas - Dodge's tenure has been marked with tons of turnovers, a porous defense, and few wins. The offense has shown flashes of potential, but can't seem to hang onto the ball. The defense gave up 12 fewer points per game last season, but they were still outscored by nine points per game. How much time will Dodge get at North Texas to implement his system that was so successful at Southlake Carroll High School?
* Bob Toledo at Tulane - Toledo has only won 25% of his games at Tulane, but he had the unenviable job of rebuilding the Tulane program after Hurricane Katrina. Just a few years ago, Tulane was considering dropping Division I athletics. I don't know if another coach that Tulane realistically could have hired would have done much better than Toledo. He deserves more time, but the FBS head coaching business isn't always fair.
* Neil Callaway at UAB - Callaway has done a great job rebuilding the Blazers from scratch. Now it's time to take it to the next level, specifically the postseason. UAB was close last year, but now they have to replace the dynamic athlete Joe Webb who accounted for over 3700 yards of offense last year. UAB is playing in a division with 3 first year head coaches, so Callaway needs to take advantage and produce a winning season.
* George O'Leary at UCF - O'Leary hasn't had back to back winning seasons at UCF. If he can't break that streak, he may be out the door. It's no secret that UCF is positioning itself for a Big East invite. With only one win over a ranked team, two wins over BCS teams and zero bowl wins in the program's history, UCF has not yet proven that they can compete in a BCS conference. If the administration doesn’t think O'Leary is the right man for that job, they are likely to push him out with a disappointing season.

Retirement Watch
* Joe Paterno at Penn State - People have been expecting JoePa to retire every year for as long as I can remember. He keeps coaching and I see no reason for him to quit since he is still successful and in good health. At 83 years old, he's gets a spot on this list.
* Dennis Erickson at Arizona State - Erickson is 63 years old and headed into his 22nd year as a head coach. He's missed the postseason last two years and may be getting ready to hang it up if he endures another losing season.
* Mike Price at UTEP - Price is a year older than Dennis Erickson and has been coaching for a long time. There were rumors of his retirement after last season, as well as rumors of his dismissal. I think that either he has a good season and goes out on top, or he has another underachieving season and the administration strongly suggests that he retires. Regardless I think this is his last season.


Notes
* I predict these jobs will definitely be open after this season: Maryland, Illinois, Washington State, and UTEP.
* There are no SEC and no Big East coaches on the list. I expect all of them to be on the same sideline in 2011, although Les Miles to Michigan is a long shot.
* The only Big XII coach on the hot seat is likely to survive regardless of performance because of financial issues.
* With three AQ conferences not making any changes, we may see less of a trickledown effect and therefore fewer job openings next offseason.
* The main reason I don't have any MAC coaches on the hot seat is that eight of the teams have first or second year head coaches. Plus Jerry Kill at Northern Illinois is in his third year. Al Golden at Temple may leave because someone else hires him. He would definitely be a candidate for the Maryland job, but that’s a topic for a different blog post.