BCS Bowl Possibilities

A want to write a quick post detailing what I think will happen in regards to the participants of the five BCS bowls. I'm particularly interested this year, because Boise State has a great opportunity to become the first non-AQ to be selected from the at-large pool. Onto the discussion:

Here's what I know for sure. The winner of the SEC championship game will be in the title game, and the loser will be in the Sugar Bowl. The winner of the ACC championship game will be in the Orange Bowl. The loser won't be in a BCS bowl. Ohio State will be in Rose Bowl. The winner of the Civil War (Oregon vs Oregon State) will also be in the Rose Bowl. TCU will be in one of the BCS bowls. Those six teams are in.

The most likely scenario is that Texas wins the Big 12 championship game, Cincinnati beats Pitt, and Boise State beats New Mexico State. In this case, Texas goes to the title game and Cincinnati goes to a BCS bowl. Now two spots are open. The Big Ten will get one, and it should go to Iowa over Penn State. The most likely options for the last spot will be Georgia Tech if they lose Ssturday, Virginia Tech, Miami, Pitt, Oklahoma State, Oregon if they lose Saturday, and Boise State. Boise State would be 13-0 with a win over Oregon. Every other team in that list would have three losses. If a BCS bowl chose a 3-loss team over Boise State, chaos would ensue. In 2007, the Rose Bowl took a undeserving Illinois team, but that was a slightly different situation because the Rose Bowl wanted to keep the Big 10-Pac 10 tradition. That would not be the case this season. I have to think Boise State would be chosen, regardless that they play in the WAC and the non-conference slate ended up having only one big game.

A second scenario would be Texas and Boise State winning, but Cincinnati losing to Pitt. Pitt would earn the auto-bid and Cincinnati would go to the at-large pool. Cincinnati and Iowa would probably both get bids over Boise State in this situation.

If Cincinnati and Boise State win, but Texas loses, then it ends up being essentially the same situation. Texas and Iowa get the at-large bids and Boise State gets the shaft. Then the main topic will be who plays in the title game. While TCU is ranked higher right now, I think Cincinnati would jump to #2. With no one-loss teams outside of SEC loser and Texas, Cincinnati would be the only option from a BCS conference.

If Texas and Cincinnati lose, then it gets interesting for a different reason. Texas obviously gets an at-large, but Iowa and Cincinnati would have to fight it out for the last spot. Cincinnati would have the better resume and the better non-conference win (at Oregon State vs Arizona at home.) The problem is that the Big East lacks a certain amount of prestige, and Iowa has a bigger fanbase for ticket sales and TV ratings. TCU would be next in line to play in the title game, but I have a hard time believing that will happen. I doubt you'll see a SEC rematch, so Texas may be able to back its way into the title game without winning the Big 12. If you like chaos, root for this situation.


My latest prediction of the BCS Bowls:

BCS National Championship Game: Florida vs Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Cincinnati vs TCU
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Iowa