2009 Big East Preview

The Favorite: West Virginia gets the pick here in a conference full of very good but not great teams. It's difficult not to expect a dropff with the graduation of quarterback Pat White, but I think every other contender is more flawed. They lost four games last year, but three of them were by a combined total of ten points. To win the Big East this year, the Mountaineers will probably need to win the Backyard Brawl, a game they've lost the past two years.

The Challenger: Pittsburgh came close to winning the Big East for the first time under Dave Wannstedt last year, but a 28-21 loss at Cincinnati left them in second place. The loss of several good skill position players and uncertain quarterback play concerns me about the offense.

The Sleeper: USF lost five conference games last season despite being one of the most talented teams in the conference. This is the senior season for quarterback Matt Grothe and defensive end George Selvie, and it's the last chance for a conference championship. The biggest issue is the inexperience on the offensive line, but there are three really easy non-conference games (Wofford, at Western Kentucky, Charleston Southern) to start the season that will give them an opportunity to gel.

The Letdown: Cincinnati has won 21 games in the past two seasons, but this appears to be a rebuilding year for them. They only have one returning starter on defense, and four of last year's starters were drafted. There's also new defensive coordinator in place. The Bearcats should be good enough to have another winning season, but I don't see them contending for the conference title.

Conference Players of the Year: Noel Devine (RB West Virginia) who will carry the Mountaineers on offense, and George Selvie (DE USF) on defense.

I Wrote What?: Which was worse in last year's preview, predicting that USF would win the conference with an 11-1 record or claiming that Louisville would make the leap to 9-3?

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, Nov 14 - A late season game with both programs fighting for national respect. And oh by the way, last year's game was a four overtime thriller.
* East Carolina at West Virginia, Sept 12 - I'm sure WVU will be out for revenge against the only team that beat them by more than four points last year.
* USF at Florida St, Sept 26 - First meeting between the programs, they'll be playing for in-state bragging rights.
* Colorado at West Virginia, Oct 1 - Like the ECU game, West Virginia will be looking for another big revenge win.
* Illinois at Cincinnati, Nov 27 - The surprise Rose Bowl team from 2007 against the surprise Orange Bowl team of 2008.


Projected Standings:

West Virginia | 10-2 | 6-1







Pittsburgh | 9-3 | 5-2







USF | 8-4 | 5-2







Cincinnati | 7-5 | 4-3







Rutgers | 8-4 | 4-3







Connecticut | 5-7 | 3-4







Louisville | 4-8 | 1-6







Syracuse | 2-10 | 0-7

2009 Big Ten Preview

The Favorite: Penn State is my pick to win the Big Ten, due in part to getting both Ohio State and Iowa at home. There are heavy losses at receiver and in the secondary, but linebacker Sean Lee returns after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The non-conference schedule is weak and all of the games are at State College. There are a couple of tough road games at Illinois and Michigan State, but Penn State still has a great shot at going undefeated.

The Challenger: Ohio State is just behind Penn State in contending for the Big Ten title as well as an appearance in the national championship game. The Buckeyes will have to beat USC to be considered a true national title threat. Seven players were drafted in April, all in the first five rounds. Regardless, Ohio State doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. The only question is will they beat the other elite teams on their schedule.

The Sleeper: Iowa was a very underrated team last year, but they may make a lot more noise this year. They lost four games last year, but only by a combined 13 points. Any of those games could have easily gone the other way. They won the last four games of the season, including knocking off an unbeaten Penn State team, demolishing Minnesota on the road 55-0, and thumping South Carolina 31-10 in the Outback Bowl. The loss of Doak Walker Award winner Shonn Greene is a concern, as it the schedule with road trips to Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State. A conference title is probably out of the question, but a ten win season isn't.

The Letdown: Somehow Northwestern was able to win nine games last season despite beating only two bowl teams (Iowa, Minnesota.) Five wins were by eight points or fewer. The offensive losses are heavy, led by the starting quarterback and running back, and the top three receivers. This season they could go 4-0 out of conference, but the conference record is going to drop. The Wildcats will still go bowling, but seven wins is the likely ceiling.

Conference Players of the Year: Arrelious Benn (WR Illinois) on offense after a huge season, and Navorro Bowman (LB Penn St) on defense.

I Wrote What?: I remember being unsure about Michigan in last year's preview, but I never expected them to fall that hard. I also didn't expected Minnesota to improve by six wins.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* USC at Ohio St, Sept 12 - Easily one of the best non-conference games on paper, but last year's version of this game was disappointing.
* Missouri vs Illinois at St. Louis, Sept 5 - The Arch Rivalry game is a fun way to kick off the season. Look for Illinois to announce they are back.
* Notre Dame at Michigan, Sept 12 - An early season test to see how much Michigan has improved since last year.
* California at Minnesota, Sept 19 - Minnesota had trouble defending their home field last season. Will they be any better now, especially against a top team like Cal?
* Illinois at Cincinnati, Nov 27 - A Big Ten team playing the day after Thanksgiving? Outside shot at both teams being ranked for this game.


Projected Standings:

Penn St | 11-1 | 7-1







Ohio St | 10-2 | 7-1







Iowa | 10-2 | 6-2







Illinois | 9-3 | 5-3







Minnesota | 7-5 | 4-4







Michigan St | 8-4 | 4-4







Michigan | 7-5 | 3-5







Northwestern | 7-5 | 3-5







Wisconsin | 6-6 | 3-5







Purdue | 3-9 | 2-6







Indiana | 2-10 | 0-8

2009 C-USA Preview

The Favorite (East): East Carolina barely edges out Southern Miss as the favorite to win the division. The defense is the strongest in the conference, but the offense needs to cut down on its two turnover per game average. Much like last season, East Carolina will have several opportunities to get statement wins out of conference with games against West Virginia, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech.

The Favorite (West): Houston didn't take too big of step back despite the coaching change. After a transition year, Kevin Sumlin could have the best team in the conference. I would say the offense should be better, but I don't know if they will improve on 40 points and 562 yards per game. Can Case Keenum improve on 5020 passing yards and 44 touchdowns?

The Challenger (East): Southern Miss started the season 2-6, and the Larry Fedora experiment didn't seem to be working. Then they won their next five games including the bowl game to continue their streak of consecutive winning seasons to 15. Southern Miss returns 19 starters and is in the second year of Fedora's system, so it's likely that the team will continue to improve on both sides of the ball. The schedule does have several difficult road games, but this team has potential to be special.

The Sleeper: There are a ton of teams fighting for this spot, and they are going to end up beating up on each other. I have Tulane in a bowl game based on them having far fewer injuries than last season. That would be the biggest improvement in the standings of any team in the conference. I'm also calling for Marshall to end their five year bowl drought.

The Letdown: Rice is going from a 10 win season to a losing season. After scoring 40+ points per game last season, Phil Steele calculates that they only return 16.5% of offensive yardage from last season, lowest in the country. With the school's all-time leading passer, all-time leading receiver, and do-everything TE gone, the offense may score half as many points. The defense gave up 33 points and 450 yards per game last season, so it doesn't appear to be capable to carry the team either.

Conference Player of the Year: Case Keenum (QB Houston) gets the nod on offense due to his ridiculous stats, but DeAndre Brown (WR Southern Miss) is the most talented player. Albert McClellan (DE Marshall) on defense.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I was way too high on UCF and SMU and way too low on Rice. Mark Snyder at Marshall survived another losing season, but he's still on the hot seat this year.

Non-conference Games to Watch
* Virginia Tech at East Carolina, Nov 5 - ECU started last season with a win over VT in Charlotte. Will they get another win, this time at home?
* Texas Tech at Houston, Sept 26 - Here's to offensive fireworks from both teams. Can the combined score break 100?
* Boise St at Tulsa, Oct 14 - Two more of the best offenses square off in a Wednesday night game.
* East Carolina at West Virginia, Sept 12 - I think ECU can get a road win here even though they are 0-12 all time in Morgantown.
* Southern Miss at Louisville, Oct 10 - An old C-USA rivalry is renewed.


Projected Standings:
East:

East Carolina | 8-4 | 6-2







Southern Miss | 8-4 | 6-2







Marshall | 6-6 | 4-4







UAB | 5-7 | 4-4







UCF | 5-7 | 3-5







Memphis | 4-8 | 2-6








West:

Houston | 8-4 | 6-2







Tulsa | 8-4 | 6-2







Tulane | 6-6 | 4-4







Rice | 4-8 | 3-5







UTEP | 5-7 | 3-5







SMU | 2-10 | 1-7

2009 Independents Preview

Army: Army fired head coach Stan Brock at the end of last season and brought in Rich Ellerson, the head coach at Cal Poly. Ellerson ran the triple option offense at Cal Poly and could turn out to be a great hire. Cal Poly beat San Diego State last season and lost to Wisconsin by a single point. By the way, they missed three extra points in that game. The improvement in wins at Army may not come immediately, but I feel certain they are coming.

Navy: I was wrong last year when I thought the coaching change at Navy would do just enough to keep them out of the postseason. They ended up going 8-4 with four wins over bowl teams along the way. This season they play 13 games because of a late trip to Hawaii, so they will have to win at least seven to get to their seventh straight bowl. I'm not picking against them this time.

Notre Dame: Notre Dame has been one of the most talked about teams in the preseason. They have the schedule, talent and experience to win a ton of games. Getting to a BCS bowl is not out of the question. I still have so many doubts about this team though, and most of them stem from the fact that they lost to Syracuse at home last year. There's a lot speculation as to how many games Charlie Weis will have to win to save his job. It's possible that he won't be kept with an 8-4 record.

Conference Player of the Year: Golden Tate (WR Notre Dame) on offense, Kyle McCarthy (SS Notre Dame) on defense.

Projected Standings:

Notre Dame | 9-3







Navy | 7-6







Army | 3-9

2009 MAC Preview

The Favorite: Central Michigan returns to top team status after a one year hiatus with Ball State going undefeated in the regular season. Quarterback Dan Lefevour returns for his senior season and is already the school's all-time leading passer. Wide Receiver Bryan Anderson only needs less than 400 yards to become the school's all-time leading receiver. The schedule isn't great with road trips to Buffalo and Western Michigan, but the Chippewas appear to be good enough to win the MAC regardless.

The Challenger (West): Western Michigan won nine games last year including wins over eventual MAC champion Buffalo and Illinois. The receivers and most of the defense took heavy losses to graduation, but they still look like the second best team in the West and are definitely a contender.

The Challenger (East): Last year should have been the year that Temple turned the corner. Temple lost two games in overtime and another to Buffalo on the last play of the game. If one of those games goes the other way, Temple is bowl eligible. If all three go their way, they're 8-4 and playing in the MAC Championship Game. I don't think they will be that unlucky this season. Temple is likely to represent the East in the championship game this year and to go bowling for the first time since 1979.

The Sleeper: Buffalo may be discounted with the loss of a four year starter at quarterback and the unfortunate loss of their starting running back in preseason practices. Buffalo does have one of the best young coaches in Turner Gill, and the East is wide open. Despite the losses, you can't count them out.

The Letdown: Ball State could go from a 12-0 regular season to a losing record. They lost too much to remain a contender. Head coach Brady Hoke left for the San Diego State job, quarterback Nate Davis is in the NFL, and the receivers and offensive line lost most of their experience. They do have a great running back in MiQuale Lewis, but he can't carry the load all by himself. The Cardinals are going to take a big step backwards.

Conference Player of the Year: Dan LeFevour (QB Central Michigan) on offense, Nick Bellore (LB Central Michigan) on defense.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I had Miami contending in the East division. Instead they only won two games and fired their head coach. I thought Ball State would be good last season, but I didn't think they would be that good.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Central Michigan at Boston College, Oct 31 - I'm not even sure if this will be an upset if CMU is the best team in the conference and Boston College is in as much turmoil as I think they are.
* Temple at Navy, Oct 31 - Last year, Navy was down 20 points with just over nine minutes to go, but found a way to force overtime and then win. Will this year's game be as memorable?
* Northern Illinois at Purdue, Sept 19 - Jerry Kill got NIU to a bowl game in his first year, but the best win was against Bowling Green. This could be his first win against a Big Ten team.
* Connecticut at Ohio, Sept 5 - Connecticut loses almost half of its offense from last year with just the loss of Donald Brown to the NFL. They could be ripe for an upset in a road opener.
* Iowa St at Kent St, Sept 19 - These teams split the first two games at Iowa State, and now the rubber match is in Kent.


Projected Standings:
West:

Central Michigan | 9-3 | 7-1







Western Michigan | 7-5 | 6-2







Northern Illinois | 7-5 | 4-4







Toledo | 4-8 | 4-4







Ball St | 5-7 | 3-5







Eastern Michigan | 3-9 | 2-6








East:

Buffalo | 6-6 | 5-3







Temple | 7-5 | 5-3







Ohio | 6-6 | 4-4







Akron | 5-7 | 3-5







Kent St | 5-7 | 3-5







Bowling Green | 3-9 | 3-5







Miami (OH) | 2-10 | 2-6