1998-2007: Ten years of the BCS

After ten years of the BCS, it seems like now is a good time to look back at what has transpired. This post will be limited to the BCS Bowl data and my observations drawn from the data. When national champions are mentioned, I am only looking at one anointed by the BCS. The AP champion is irrelevant in this study. The BCS bowls are the Orange Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl, the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, and as of two years ago the BCS National Championship Game.



National Championships by Conference

Every BCS conference has won a National Championship and has played in at least two title games. The most successful conference by far is the SEC. They are 4-0 in championship games and are the only conference with a winning record. The next best conference is the Big XII. They've played in more title games (5) than any other conference and are the only other conference to have won multiple championships (2-3). Of the six BCS conferences, three of them have only had a single representative in the title game: Florida State for the ACC, Ohio State for the Big Ten, and USC for the Pac-10.



National Championships by Team

In the BCS era, only LSU has won more than one championship. Florida State, Ohio State, and Oklahoma have played in the most game with three each and have an identical record of 1-2. There have been nine different champions in ten years, but surprisingly only 11 teams have played in a title game. Perhaps even more surprising is that more teams have played in multiple title games (6), than teams that have only played in one (5). Taking it a step further, that means six programs represent 15 of the 20 teams to play for a championship. Those six programs are the aforementioned LSU, Florida St, Ohio State and Oklahoma joined with Miami and USC. Nebraska and Virginia Tech represent the only two teams who have played for a national championship but haven't won one. The other three teams that won their only appearance are Florida, Tennessee, and Texas.



BCS Bowls by Conference

Over the past decade, the Big Ten has sent 17 teams to BCS bowls, more than any other conference. The SEC is second with 15. In that time span, the ACC and Big East have failed to send an at-large team to a BCS bowl. Notre Dame has gone as an at-large three times, and a non-BCS team has gone three times. The SEC has had the most success with 11 wins and has a record of seven games over .500. The only other conferences with winning records are the Big East, the Pac-10, and the Mountain West who won its only invite in 2004. The worst conference has without a doubt been the ACC. They have only won one game in ten tries. That win was in 1999, meaning they are riding an eight-game losing streak. The WAC won one of its two games. None of the other non-BCS conferences have received an invite.



BCS Bowls by Conference

Florida State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and USC have played in the most BCS bowl games with six apiece. Not surprisingly, all four have won a national championship. USC has won the most games with five, and LSU has the best record with a 4-0 mark. Texas, West Virginia, and Wisconsin are the only other teams that have played in multiple games and are undefeated. All three teams are 2-0. Florida State has lost the most games with five, and Oklahoma is second with four. The only teams to go winless in multiple trips are Notre Dame and Virginia Tech with three losses each, and Illinois with two. 40 different teams, or just over a third of all teams, have gone to a BCS bowl. 37 of the 66 current BCS teams, or 56%, have gone to a BCS bowl. With so many different teams getting invites, only 17 of them have gone to more than one.

Not only has the ACC had the worst record in BCS bowl games, they've also had the least amount of parity. Florida State has gone 60% of the time, leaving only three other teams to earn bids. Half of the current Big East and half of the SEC have been invited, while the Big Ten and the Pac-10 have had seven different teams go. The Pac-10 has had the most parity with seven out of the ten teams representing the conference at some point. That stat is even more impressive since USC has been invited six times.



Final Thoughts

I was surprised to learn how diverse the BCS bowl attendees were. I was even more surprised to see how exclusive the National Championship games were. Six schools represent 75% of the teams that have had an opportunity to play for a BCS Championship. Compare that to 40 schools that have filled 84 BCS Bowl spots. The most successful teams over the past decade have been LSU (4-0, two championships), USC (5-1, one championship), Ohio State (4-2, one championship), Florida (3-1, one championship), and Miami (3-1, one championship). Everyone seems to forget that Ohio State won their first four BCS bowls, and instead they focus on just the past two losses in the title games.

I've never heard anybody question the validity of the ACC as an auto-bid league, but seeing that they have only won 10% of their BCS games and never put a second team in the mix, you have to wonder just how deserving they are. On the other hand, the Big East is constantly maligned and questioned as to whether they should have an auto-bid. While they've failed to put a second team in, they do have a 6-4 record and the same record as the ACC and Big Ten in national title games (1-2). Since the ACC invaded the Big East and took its top teams, the Big East has still been competitive and actually is 3-1 in the past four years. Only the SEC has a better record in the period, and the Pac-10 has the same record. The ACC, Big XII, and Big Ten all had worse records. Perhaps it's time to stop all the Big East bashing, because the facts don't support it. It also warrants mentioning that the Mountain West and the WAC have as many wins in BCS games as the ACC does, even though those conferences have only played in one and two games respectively. You may think I'm knocking the ACC, but I don't want to take away their auto-bid. Instead, I want the top non-BCS team to get an auto-bid every season. If history is any indication, the non-BCS teams would be more successful than their ACC counterparts in the future, so why not let them in.

2007 Coaching Carousel

Arkansas

Former Coach: Houston Nutt
New Coach: Bobby Petrino

Nutt had a successful tenure at Arkansas, leading them to a 75-48 record, eight bowl games (but only two wins), and two SEC West titles. He was offered a contract extension, but division within the fanbase led him to resign. He was hired by Mississippi just a few days later. Petrino left the Atlanta Falcons job after 13 games for the Arkansas job, becoming the latest successful college head coach to fail in the NFL. He has already made quite an impact by bringing in Michigan transfer QB Ryan Mallett (Link). I can imagine Petrino needing a couple of years to start matching Nutt's success, but as long as he sticks around, I think it's a good hire.




Baylor

Former Coach: Guy Morriss
New Coach: Art Briles

Morriss averaged less than four wins in his half-decade at Baylor and was never able to get to bowl eligibility. He did everything he could to improve the offense, but it still finished at the bottom of the Big 12 in points scored. The defense also would have been to worst in the Big 12 in points allowed if it weren't for Nebraska. Briles is a former high school head coach who has only been coaching college for the past five years. He led a downtrodden Houston team to four bowl games in that span, although he never won one. He will definitely improve the offense, but this Baylor team needs help on both sides of the ball. I think this hire is a little questionable, and I think he will only be slightly more successful than Morriss.




Colorado State

Former Coach: Sonny Lubick
New Coach: Steve Fairchild

Lubick is nothing short of a legend at Colorado State, and it's an end of an era now that he's gone. He coached there for 15 seasons, winning six conference titles, going to nine bowl games, and compiling a 108-74 record. Fairchild is an alum of the university and was the OC of the Buffalo Bills most recently. It's difficult to predict how this will turn out, but I do know he has his work cut out for him competing with all of the good programs in the Mountain West.




Duke

Former Coach: Ted Roof
New Coach: David Cutcliffe

Roof was only able to win six games out of the 51 he coached at Duke. Duke has not had a winning season or gone to a bowl game since 1994. The job to turn the program around falls to David Cutcliffe, former Tennessee OC and Mississippi head coach. He inherits a program with more talent and potential than the 1-11 record indicates. It's a challenging job to undertake, but I think Duke hired the best man available for the job.




Georgia Tech

Former Coach: Chan Gailey
New Coach: Paul Johnson

Gailey never had a losing season at Georgia Tech, winning at least seven games and reaching a bowl game in each of his six years there. He won the Coastal Division in 2006 and lost to Wake Forest in the ACC Conference Championship. For all of the positives, it seemed like he underachieved often and he never beat in-state rival Georgia. Georgia Tech made a great hire with Johnson, who had revived Navy's program. I look forward to see what he can accomplish with the talent level at Georgia Tech. I don't even expect much of a transition year in 2008.




Hawaii

Former Coach: June Jones
New Coach: Greg McMackin

Jones accomplished everything that was possible at Hawaii and probably feels like there is nothing else he can prove while being a coach there. He left after the Sugar Bowl to take his high octane offense to SMU on the mainland. Hawaii is one of the most challenging jobs with the extensive travel and extremely limited recruiting budget. It makes sense to promote from within so that the new head coach already understands those difficulties. McMackin looks to be the right guy for the job, although I doubt he will be able to even come close to Jones' success.




Houston

Former Coach: Art Briles
New Coach: Kevin Sumlin

Briles had four winning seasons out of five at Houston, and he parlayed that success into a better paying job at Baylor. I'm sure that Houston didn't want to see him leave. He will be replaced by Kevin Sumlin, who was the co-OC for Oklahoma for the past two seasons. Sumlin will attempt to continue with one of the best offenses in C-USA, one that ranked second it total yards and third in points scored this past season. Anytime you hire a coordinator without any prior head coaching experience, it's going to be a gamble. Still, I see no reason why Sumlin can't sustain and build on Houston's recent success.




Michigan

Former Coach: Lloyd Carr
New Coach: Rich Rodriguez

Lloyd Carr ended a long and wondrous career with Michigan that included winning over three-quarters of the games he coached and a National Championship in 1997. He ended with a big win over Florida in the Capital One Bowl to go out on a high note. Michigan hired Rodriguez as his replacement. Rodriguez led West Virginia to six straight 8+ win seasons, at least a share of the conference title in four years, and two BCS Bowl wins. Next season will be very interesting for the Michigan offense as several of the top players graduated or left early, the backup QB transferred to Arkansas, and Rodriguez will attempt to install his spread offense. I think Rodriguez is a great hire in the long term, but he may not have the Wolverines competing for conference championships for a couple of years.




Mississippi

Former Coach: Ed Orgeron
New Coach: Houston Nutt

Orgeron was given the boot after Mississippi went winless in conference play for the first time since 1982. In his three seasons, the Rebels never showed any progress and only won 3-4 games each year. While Nutt wasn't always the most popular guy at Arkansas, he proved that he could compete in the SEC West, so there's no reason to think he won't do the same at Mississippi. He should have Mississippi bowling in two or three seasons.




Navy

Former Coach: Paul Johnson
New Coach: Ken Niumatalolo

Johnson left to fill the Georgia Tech vacancy and will be tough to replace. He won 8-10 games in the last five of his six seasons as head coach at Navy. That type of success will be hard to replicate. Niumatalolo was an assistant under Johnson for the past six seasons and will continue to run the same triple option offense. He coached Navy in a close loss in the Poinsettia Bowl against Utah. Johnson was too good of a coach for me to believe that Miumatalolo will keep Navy at the same level, but he was impressive in the bowl game.




Nebraska

Former Coach: Bill Callahan
New Coach: Bo Pelini

Callahan was let go after a disappointing 2007 season, especially on the defensive side. Nebraska was last in the conference in points allowed, rushing yards and total yards allowed, and takeaways. The Cornhuskers were also in the bottom ten nationally in those four categories as well. Twice in the four years under Callahan, Nebraska was outscored by its opponents. Before he was hired, that had not happened since the 1968 season. It's not surprising that Nebraska hired a defensive specialist as the new head coach. Pelini was most recently the DC at LSU. Previously he was the DC at Oklahoma and Nebraska. He was the DC at Nebraska the year that Frank Solich was fired as the head coach. Pelini was named the interim head coach for the Alamo Bowl, and he led them to a 17-3 victory over Michigan State. Pelini should be a good hire, but his biggest obstacle is an improving Big 12 North.




Northern Illinois

Former Coach: Joe Novak
New Coach: Jerry Kill

Novak retired after 12 seasons as head coach of Northern Illinois. He led them to seven winning seasons and two bowl games. The Huskies had gone 21 years without playing in the postseason until Novak brought them to Silicon Valley Classic in 2004. He had a disappointing final season, but he was still a great coach for the Huskies. He will be replaced by Jerry Kill, the former head coach at Southern Illinois. Kill led the Salukis to the FCS playoffs for the past five seasons. They made it to the semifinals in 2007 where they lost to Delaware. He even beat Northern Illinois in 2007. Kill should be a good hire and will have Northern Illinois back to contending for MAC championships soon.




SMU

Former Coach: Phil Bennett
New Coach: June Jones

Phil Bennett was on his way to rebuilding a downtrodden SMU program and was a four point loss to Rice in 2006 away from bringing them to their first bowl game since 1984. He lost his job in the middle of a disastrous 2007 season in which SMU only won a single game. Five of the eleven losses were by a touchdown or less, so there's more talent on this team that the record indicates. I think Bennett got a raw deal from the administration after one bad season. SMU opened up their pocketbook and hired June Jones away from Hawaii at $2 million a year. Jones will have enough talent to start implementing his run-and-shoot offense right away. Jones improved Hawaii by nine wins in his first season there. He probably won't match that number at SMU, but look for a marked improvement from them next season. While I don't like the way that Bennett was treated, Jones is obviously an upgrade over him. Look for SMU to be in the postseason in the next year or two.




Southern Miss

Former Coach: Jeff Bower
New Coach: Larry Fedora

While I thought that Phil Bennett was treated unfairly at SMU, it doesn't even compare to Southern Miss forcing out Jeff Bower. All Bower did was lead them to 15 winning seasons in 17 years as head coach, 10 bowl games, four conference titles (one shared) and another East division crown. Three times he was named the conference coach of the year and in 2004 he was named the conference coach of the decade. Larry Fedora takes over at the helm now. He was most recently the OC for Oklahoma State. Fedora has never been a head coach outside of high school. He may do well at Southern Miss, but I doubt he will match Bower's consistency and longevity.




Texas A&M

Former Coach: Dennis Franchione
New Coach: Mike Sherman

Dennis Franchione resigned after a tumultuous five year with a mediocre record and scandal involving selling inside information to boosters. He led the Aggies to three bowl games, but all three were losses and two were blowouts by more than 30 points each. Sherman was the offensive line coach for Texas A&M from 1989-1993. He was also the head coach of the Green Bay Packers from 2000-2005. He spent the next two years with the Houston Texans before being hired by Texas A&M. I think this is a solid hire, but he will have difficulty in the tough Big 12 South.




UCLA

Former Coach: Karl Dorrell
New Coach: Rick Neuheisel

Dorrell took UCLA to a bowl game every season in his five year stint as head coach, but they were still known as an underachieving ball club. Dorrell also went 1-4 in those bowl games and only won more than seven games in a season once. The UCLA program has a ton of potential, and it was obvious that Dorrell wasn't going to be the one to help them reach that potential. UCLA made an interesting hire in Neuheisel. He was a proven winner at Colorado and Washington, but he had a run-in with the NCAA over gambling charges. He was never sanctioned by the NCAA, and he actually won a $4.5 million lawsuit against them. It seems inevitable that the NCAA will be watching Neuheisel like a hawk, just waiting for him to make a mistake. I'm surprised that UCLA wants that much scrutiny, but Neuheisel is a good coach.




West Virginia

Former Coach: Rich Rodriguez
New Coach: Bill Stewart

Rodriguez left a successful career at West Virginia for the Michigan head coaching job. He leaves behind a talented team, and the right coach can continue to win with them. Time will tell if Stewart is that coach. After a huge Fiesta Bowl win, it was obvious that the players wanted him to be the head coach. Since he has already won over the locker room, now he just has to prove that he can handle all of the other responsibilities of a head coach. This hire appears to be the right one in the short term, but I'm not sure if he will have the long term success that Rodriguez would have had.




Washington State

Former Coach: Bill Doba
New Coach: Paul Wulff

Doba and Washington State mutually decided for him to not return as head coach in 2008. Doba led Washington State to a ten win season and a Holiday Bowl win in his first season. For the next four seasons, he never had a winning season again or led the team to a bowl game. Washington State is often considered one of the toughest places to be a coach and recruit because of its remote location. They made the best hire possible by bringing in a coach who has had success in a similar situation. Wulff was the head coach of Eastern Washington, another remote school that plays at the FCS level. He coached them for eight seasons and coached them to a winning record in seven of those years. They played in the FCS playoffs in three of the last four seasons. He is also a Washington State alum who played center for the Cougars.

2007 Season Wrapup

My Picks:

Week 1 58-12 (82.86%)
Week 2 52-9 (85.25%)
Week 3 46-19 (70.77%)
Week 4 45-15 (75.00%)
Week 5 44-15 (74.58%)
Week 6 37-19 (66.07%)
Week 7 39-16 (70.91%)
Week 8 39-16 (70.91%)
Week 9 38-14 (73.08%)
Week 10 43-11 (79.63%)
Week 11 38-17 (69.09%)
Week 12 42-10 (80.77%)
Week 13 36-12 (75.00%)
Week 14 12-6 (66.67%)
Bowls 22-10 (74.62%)


Season 591-201 (74.62%)


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* Congratulations to LSU, the 2007 FBS National Champion.

* My friend over at Rogers Poll finished picking games at an even 75%, three games ahead of me.

* This year was one of the most competitive bowl seasons I can remember. 17 games were settled by a touchdown or less. Eight of those games were settled by three points or less. Oddly enough, with over half of the bowl games being settled by a score or less, only one went into overtime (Chik-fil-A Bowl). Most people seem to forget how many good games there were since the BCS Bowls only had one close game.

* Things I'll remember from the bowl season: BYU blocking a last second UCLA field goal to secure a win, Nevada getting shut out for the first time in their history as a FBS team, Bill Stewart coaching himself into the head coaching job at West Virginia, Missouri and Kansas both proving they should have been in BCS Bowls, and the state of Florida sending five teams to bowls and then only registering a single win (FAU).

* Conference Record in Bowl Games (sorted by games over .500)

SEC (7-2)
MWC (4-1)
Big 12 (5-3)
Pac 10 (4-2)
Big East (3-2)
Sun Belt (1-0)
Indy (0-1)
Big Ten (3-5)
C-USA (2-4)
WAC (1-3)
MAC (0-3)
ACC (2-6)

* The SEC wins the conference bragging rights, but the Mountain West actually had the best winning percentage. Unfortunately, the MWC isn't getting enough recognition for their performance.

* Fresno State was the only team that kept the WAC from having a completely embarrassing bowl season. Nothing saved the MAC from that fate.

Final Top 25

1 - LSU (3)
2 - Missouri (6)
3 - West Virginia (7)
4 - Georgia (8)
5 - Oklahoma (2)
6 - USC (9)
7 - Virginia Tech (5)
8 - Ohio St (4)
9 - Hawaii (1)
10 - Kansas (10)
11 - Boston College (12)
12 - BYU (17)
13 - Texas (19)
14 - South Florida (11)
15 - Tennessee (22)
16 - Illinois (13)
17 - Cincinnati (20)
18 - Clemson (14)
19 - Oregon (21)
20 - Boise St (15)
21 - Texas Tech (UR)
22 - Florida (18)
23 - Arizona St (16)
24 - Auburn (UR)
25 - UCF (UR)


Added - Texas Tech, Auburn, UCF
Dropped - Virginia, Connecticut, Wisconsin

Bowl Picks for January 2-7

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Glendale, Arizona
January 2, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX


Oklahoma
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Wins: Missouri (11-2) twice
Worst Loss: Colorado (6-6)

The Rundown: Oklahoma had another big season, winning the Big 12 title and will be going to Fiesta Bowl. They beat six bowl teams along the way, including four who won nine or more games. The two losses were on the road by a combined total of 10 points to bowl teams. The offense was second in the Big 12 in points scored and the defense was second in the Big 12 in points allowed. A late loss in the season to Texas Tech kept them out of the National Championship game, but they were able to show up strong and dominate Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game. They were led by QB Sam Bradford, who set the NCAA freshman record for touchdown passes with 34.


West Virginia
Record: 10-2 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-1
Best Win: Cincinnati (9-3)
Worst Loss: Pittsburgh (5-7)

The Rundown: Going into the final weekend of the regular season, it seemed all but guaranteed that West Virginia was going to the National Championship game. All that stood in their way was a home game against a Pittsburgh team with a losing record. Pitt was able to get the win and send the Mountaineers to the Fiesta Bowl instead. The only other loss was a South Florida by eight points. Along the way they beat six bowl teams, including three on the road. In their 10 wins, they never scored fewer than 28 points. In their losses, they scored only 13 and 9 points. After the regular season, head coach Rich Rodriguez left to take the Michigan vacancy. At this posting, the West Virginia head coach position has not been filled.

The Matchup: Oklahoma is playing very well right now while West Virginia is reeling from a bad loss to end the season. West Virginia is also without their head coach for this game. Both teams have high scoring offenses and stingy defenses, but I think Oklahoma is a little better on both sides of the ball.


The Pick: Oklahoma



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FedEx Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
Miami, Florida
January 3, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX


Virginia Tech
Record: 11-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: Boston College (10-3)

The Rundown: Virginia Tech won the ACC title and is going to the Orange Bowl. Both of the losses on the season were to teams that won ten games each. They beat six bowl teams along the way, including earning a split with Boston College in the conference championship game. They were beat soundly in the second week of the season by LSU, but they have continuously improved since that game to become one of the top ten teams in the country. The last five games were all wins, and four were against bowl teams.


Kansas
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Texas A&M (7-5)
Worst Loss: Missouri (11-2)

The Rundown: Kansas was one of the most surprising teams in the country this year. They won their first 11 games before falling to Missouri in the finale. They didn’t play a tough schedule, playing only five bowl teams. They beat four of those teams, including two with 6-6 records. That means they were only 2-1 against teams with winning records. They were the highest scoring team in the Big 12, averaging more than 44 points per game. The defense was also impressive, allowing a conference low 16 points per game. Kansas is still a questionable BCS team, and I think Missouri was the more deserving team.


The Matchup: Kansas played one elite team this season and was beat with relative ease. Virginia Tech is coming off an elite win over Boston College. The VT defense should be able to shut down the high scoring Kansas offense. This game could be disappointing for what is normally a great bowl game.


The Pick: Virginia Tech



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International Bowl
Rutgers vs. Ball State
Toronto, Ontario
January 5, 2008
Noon Eastern
ESPN2


Rutgers
Record: 7-5 (3-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Louisville (6-6)

The Rundown: Rutgers was supposed to be a contender for the Big East title, but instead finished with a losing record in conference play. Rutgers only beat two bowl teams, Navy and South Florida on a short week. They played four close games, earning a split in those games. The main difference between last season when they won 11 games and this season when they won seven games is the defense. The defense is allowing 7.5 more points per games this season.


Ball State
Record: 7-5 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Navy (8-4)
Worst Loss: Miami Ohio (6-7)

The Rundown: Ball State was one of the better teams in the MAC and will be playing in their first bowl game since 1996. Ball State has never won a bowl game, losing the only three in the program’s history. Navy was the only bowl team they beat, one of two common opponents with Rutgers. The other common opponent was Buffalo, and both teams in the International Bowl won both of those games. Ball State lost two games this season by a single point, so their best case record was 9-3. They also lost three close games, so they also could have finished 4-8 easily.


The Matchup: As long as Rutgers is prepared and shows up to this game, they should be able to win the game as they are the better team.


The Pick: Rutgers



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GMAC Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa
Mobile, Alabama
January 6, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN


Bowling Green
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 0-2
Best Win: Buffalo (5-7)
Worst Loss: Ohio (6-6)

The Rundown: Bowling Green finished with the best overall record in the conference, but didn’t play in the conference championship game because Miami (Ohio) owned the tiebreaker. Instead they will be the only MAC East team to play in the postseason. The defense put up similar numbers as last season, but the offense was greatly improved. They went from averaging 19.5 points per game last year to 32 this year.


Tulsa
Record: 9-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: BYU (10-2)
Worst Loss: UTEP (4-8)

The Rundown: Tulsa went to its second conference championship game in three years, this time under first year head coach Todd Graham. They had a huge win against a great BYU team, but the only other bowl team they beat was Houston. That Houston game decided the C-USA West division. The only bad loss was against UTEP on the road by a single point. The offense was the highest scoring team in the C-USA, averaging almost 40 points per game.


The Matchup: These are similar teams as they both score a lot and both give up almost as many points. Tulsa scores more and should be able to light up the Ball State defense.


The Pick: Tulsa



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Allstate BCS Championship Game
LSU vs. Ohio State
New Orleans, Louisiana
January 7, 2008
8:00 pm Eastern
FOX


LSU
Record: 11-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-2
Best Win: Virginia Tech (11-2)
Worst Loss: Kentucky (7-5)

The Rundown: LSU was a very interesting team to watch this season. After the first few games, it was obvious that the Tigers were one of the best and most talented teams in the country. When they were ranked #1, they lost in triple overtime to Kentucky. They won the next four games before losing in triple overtime again, this time to Arkansas at home in the regular season finale. They beat Tennessee in the SEC Championship and became the first two-loss team to make it to the BCS National Championship game. After the first three games, LSU was outscoring their opponents 137-7. The next rest of the season was very different, as they played in six close games out of ten.


Ohio State
Record: 11-1 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 5-1
Best Win: Wisconsin (9-3)
Worst Loss: Illinois (9-3)

The Rundown: Ohio State seemingly backed into the BCS National Championship game, as teams ahead of them kept losing in the two weeks after the Buckeyes’ season was over. Ohio State only lost one game, and that was to Illinois by a touchdown at home. Ohio State beat five bowl teams, but only one that won more than eight games (Wisconsin). The defense was one of the best in the country, allowing less than 11 points per game. They held their opponents to a touchdown or less in 7 of 12 games. The only team to score more than 17 points against them was in the game they lost.


The Matchup: Ohio State got embarrassed in last year’s game, but I don’t expect that to happen twice in a row. On the other hand, LSU has dominated its past two bowl opponents under head coach Les Miles. Ohio State should play much better this time around, especially the defense, but it will not be enough against a healthy and prepared LSU squad.

The Pick: LSU

Bowl Picks for December 31 - January 1

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
California vs. Air Force
Fort Worth, Texas
December 31
12:30 pm Eastern
ESPN


California
Record: 6-6 (3-6)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Tennessee (9-4)
Worst Loss: Washington (4-9)

The Rundown: California had a great beginning to the season, winning the first five games and being ranked as high as #2 in the country. During that stretch, the Golden Bears picked up good wins against Tennessee and Oregon. The second half was the polar opposite. They lost six of their last seven games, with the only win by a field goal over Washington State. The defense was relatively constant all season, but the offense was much better in the first half. California scored over 100 points in the first half more than in the second half (219-114).


Air Force
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: Utah (8-4)
Worst Loss: Navy (8-4)

The Rundown: Air Force is in my opinion the most surprising team in the country this year. Previous head coach Fisher DeBerry retired, and nobody knew what to expect. Troy Calhoun, the OC of the Houston Texans and Air Force alum, took over as the new head coach and led them to their first bowl game since 2002 and their first nine win season since 2000.


The Matchup: This game could easily go either way. California is obviously the more talented team, but they haven’t been living up to expectations since September. Air Force has had a great season, but like California their best wins were in September. The team that shows up to play and wants it the most will win this game.


The Pick: California



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Roady's Humanitarian Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State
Boise, Idaho
December 31
2:00 pm Eastern
ESPN2


Georgia Tech
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 1-5
Best Win: Clemson (9-3)
Worst Loss: Maryland (6-6)

The Rundown: Georgia Tech had the talent and the schedule to have a huge year, but underachieved so much that head coach Chan Gailey was fired after the regular season. Former Navy head coach Paul Johnson was brought in to fill the vacancy. Georgia Tech only beat one team with a winning record all season, a 13-3 victory over Clemson at home. The Yellow Jackets were beat soundly at home by three good teams: Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Georgia. The Georgia loss was the sixth in a row in that rivalry. Defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta will coach them in the bowl game.


Fresno State
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 1-4
Best Win: Nevada (6-6)
Worst Loss: Texas A&M (7-5)

The Rundown: After last season’s disappointment, Fresno State is back to their winning ways. The offense was able to solve its problems and scored over 100 points more than last season (9.25 more points per game). Fresno State only beat one bowl team (Nevada), but pushed Texas A&M to three overtimes before losing when they failed to convert a two-point conversion. They also played Hawaii close, only losing by a touchdown.


The Matchup: Fresno State thrives on games like this where they have the opportunity to show everyone how good they are. Georgia Tech is in the middle of a coaching change and coming off a very lackluster year. Georgia Tech will have to find a way to get up for this game or Fresno will blow them away.


The Pick: Fresno State



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Brut Sun Bowl
South Florida vs. Oregon
El Paso, Texas
December 31
2:00 pm Eastern
CBS

South Florida
Record: 9-3 (4-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: West Virginia (10-2)
Worst Loss: Rutgers (7-5)

The Rundown: South Florida is growing into a Big East powerhouse and is beginning to get a lot of national attention. The Bulls won their first six games, including victories over Auburn, West Virginia, and UCF (combined record: 28-9). South Florida stumbled at Rutgers on a short week and then lost to Connecticut at Cincinnati. The three losses were by a combined 15 points, and all were to bowl teams. South Florida bounced back to win the last three, but it wasn’t enough to get into the Big East title race. The offense was greatly improved this season, averaging almost 13 more points per game, and the defense continued to be fast and strong.


Oregon
Record: 8-4 (5-4)
Record against bowl teams: 5-3
Best Win: USC (10-2)
Worst Loss: Arizona (5-7)

The Rundown: For the first nine games of the season, Oregon was arguably one of the best teams in the country and QB Dennis Dixon was the frontrunner for the Heisman by the end of that stretch. Those nine games included five wins over bowl teams including Arizona State and USC who both finished at 10-2. The only loss was against California by a touchdown. When Dennis Dixon was lost to a season-ending injury, this was simply not the same team. They lost the last three games, including any shot at a national or conference title. The lowest point was when they were shut out by a very average UCLA team.


The Matchup: I’ve dubbed this game the “What might have been?” bowl. I can’t help but wonder what might have been in Dixon had never been hurt. This Oregon team could very well be playing for in the National Championship game. And what would have been in South Florida had gotten a couple of balls bounce their way during that three game losing streak. They were 1-3 in close games. With a little more luck, they could also be playing in the National Championship game. The matchup itself all comes down to the fact that this Oregon team just can’t figure out how to win games without its star QB.


The Pick: South Florida



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Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs. Florida State
Nashville, Tennessee
December 31
4:00 pm Eastern
ESPN


Kentucky
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: LSU (11-2)
Worst Loss: South Carolina (6-6)

The Rundown: This Kentucky team had a huge first half of the season, starting 6-1 including a triple overtime shocker where they knocked off top-ranked LSU. They also picked up good wins against instate rival Louisville, Sun Belt champion FAU, and Arkansas. The Wildcats were only able to win one more game out of the last five, including falling to rival Tennessee by a two point conversion in the fourth overtime period. Kentucky was led by QB Andre Woodson to have the fourth highest scoring offense in the SEC, scoring over 10 more points per game than last season.


Florida State
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 4-4
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: Miami (5-7)

The Rundown: Florida State had a slightly disappointing year, as they were expected to contend in the ACC. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher was brought in to improve the offense, but scoring actually went down on his watch. In fact they only scored 12 points more than their opponents all season. Fisher was still rewarded with an agreement that he will replace head coach Bobby Bowden when he eventually retires. Florida State did have a difficult schedule, as they played eight bowl teams. They split those games, but they also lost to 5-7 Miami. The Seminoles will probably be remembered most this year for ruining Boston College’s chance at a perfect season. An academic scandal has recently rocked Florida State, and 36 players will not be going to the bowl game due to either suspension or injury. Many of these players could also lose playing time next season.


The Matchup: Florida State usually shows up big in bowl games, but the thin numbers can’t be ignored. Kentucky was able to dismantle a pretty good Clemson team in this same bowl game last year, and I expect a similar result again this year.


The Pick: Kentucky



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Insight Bowl
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State
Tempe, Arizona
December 31
6:00 pm Eastern
NFL Network


Indiana
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Purdue (7-5)
Worst Loss: Northwestern (6-6)

The Rundown: Indiana tragically lost head coach Terry Hoeppner in the offseason, but were able to fulfill his promise of a “13th game.” Bill Lynch took over the team and led them to their first bowl game since 1993. The schedule worked out nicely since they missed both Michigan and Ohio State. The only Big Ten team with a winning record that Indiana beat was Purdue in the final game with a bowl berth on the line. Both the offense and the defense put up much better numbers than last season. A couple of close losses against Penn State and Northwestern prevented an even bigger year for the Hoosiers.


Oklahoma State
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-5
Best Win: Texas Tech (8-4)
Worst Loss: Texas A&M (7-5)

The Rundown: Much like last season, Oklahoma State did just enough to get to a bowl game. The Cowboys had road woes all season, only winning at Nebraska and Baylor. Troy was able to upset them easily in the third week of the season. They lost close games against Texas A&M and Texas, but also won close games against Texas Tech and Kansas State. Some had predicted a big season for Oklahoma State, but the offense and defense actually put up worse numbers than last season.


The Matchup: This Oklahoma State team just never lived up to the high expectations it had. Indiana, on the other hand, exceeded all expectations and had a wonderful year. The good fortune they’ve had all season will continue into the bowl game.


The Pick: Indiana



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Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Clemson vs. Auburn
Atlanta, Georgia
December 31
7:30 pm Eastern
ESPN


Clemson
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Wake Forest (8-4)
Worst Loss: Georgia Tech (7-5)

The Rundown: Clemson had another successful season, but just missed a chance to play in the ACC Championship game when they lost to Boston College by a field goal. Clemson picked up good wins against Florida State in the opener and Wake Forest. They also hung 70 points on MAC champion Central Michigan and beat instate rival South Carolina. QB Cullen Harper had a great season in his first one as a starter, and he challenged Boston College’s Matt Ryan for best passer in the conference.


Auburn
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Mississippi St (7-5)

The Rundown: Auburn had another good year under head coach Tommy Tuberville. They won eight games, including the sixth straight victory over rival Alabama. They lost four games, but three were by six points or fewer, and one was in overtime. All four losses were to bowl teams. The three wins over bowl teams were all by a touchdown or less, but two of them were on the road. The Tigers split the six close games they played in.


The Matchup: This game is one of the best matchups of the bowl season and is one that I’m looking forward to the most. It’s also one of the most difficult to predict. Both head coaches were rumored to fill the Arkansas vacancy, but both stuck with their current positions and were given extensions. This game could easily go either way, but Clemson gets the nod since I think they are building towards a huge 2008 season.


The Pick: Clemson



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Outback Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Tampa, Florida
January 1, 2008
11:00 am Eastern
ESPN


Wisconsin
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: Michigan (8-4)
Worst Loss: Penn State (8-4)

The Rundown: Wisconsin had a good season, but struggles on the road prevented any shot at the Big Ten title. Wisconsin lost to Illinois, Penn State, and Ohio State on the road. The other two road games were close wins against bad teams. The Badgers had one of the best defenses last year, but that was not the case this year. Instead of being the best defense in the conference, it was much more toward the middle of the pack this season.


Tennessee
Record: 9-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 5-4
Best Win: Georgia (10-2)
Worst Loss: Alabama (6-6)

The Rundown: Tennessee will be playing in their second straight Outback Bowl after representing the SEC East in the conference championship game. They lost that game to LSU, one of four losses on the season. The other three losses were on the road to bowl teams, but two of those teams finished just 6-6. The Volunteers had great success in close games, winning three in the regular season including two in overtime. The game against Kentucky went into four overtime periods and ended when Kentucky was unable to convert a two point conversion attempt. The defense had trouble all season, finishing only tenth in the conference in points allowed. Four times they gave up 40+ points (1-3), compared to last season when they never gave up any more than 33 points in one game.


The Matchup: Both of these teams won nine games, but neither did so very impressively. Tennessee did not play well in this bowl last year against Penn State, but that shouldn’t be the case again. As long as they are able to play as well as they are capable of, they should get the win.


The Pick: Tennessee



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AT&T Cotton Bowl
Missouri vs. Arkansas
Dallas, Texas
January 1, 2008
11:30 am Eastern
FOX


Missouri
Record: 11-2 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 5-2
Best Win: Kansas (11-1)
Worst Losses: Oklahoma (11-2) twice

The Rundown: Missouri made it the Big 12 Championship game by beating Kansas in the regular season finale and were just one win away from going to the National Championship game. Some highlights of the season include beating two BCS Bowl bound teams plus three other bowl teams. They were the only team to beat Kansas. Their Achilles heel was the Sooners of Oklahoma. Twice they beat the Tigers, first to ruin a chance at a perfect season, and then to prevent them from winning the conference. In my opinion, Missouri should definitely be playing in Orange Bowl instead of Kansas. They deserve the BCS bid instead of just a trip to the Cotton Bowl.


Arkansas
Record: 8-4 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: LSU (11-2)
Worst Loss: Alabama (6-6)

The Rundown: Arkansas had an up and down season marked by outstanding play by RB Darren McFadden, but several losses against good teams. They obviously got an elite win over LSU in the regular season finale, but they needed three overtimes to get it. The only other bowl team they beat was Mississippi State. Arkansas did lose games to Alabama and Auburn by a total of five points, so they were also really close to a ten win season. Head coach Houston Nutt was offered an extension after the season ended, but due to restlessness within the fanbase he chose to resign. He was hired soon afterward by Mississippi to replace Ed Orgeron. Atlanta Falcons head coach Booby Petrino was brought in to fill the vacancy.


The Matchup: Arkansas was overmatched before their head coach left. You can never count a team with McFadden and Felix Jones in the backfield, but they will have their collective hands full with Missouri. QB Chase Daniel will lead Missouri to their first ever 12-win season.


The Pick: Missouri



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Konica Minolta Gator Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Virginia
Jacksonville, Florida
January 1, 2008
1:00 pm Eastern
CBS


Texas Tech
Record: 8-4 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Oklahoma (11-2)
Worst Loss: Oklahoma State (6-6)

The Rundown: Texas Tech had another good year under head coach Mike Leach, but a couple of bad losses kept it from being a great year. Losses to Oklahoma State and Colorado by a combined nine points kept the Red Raiders out of the Big 12 Championship and potentially a BCS bowl. Texas Tech has had eight straight winning seasons under Leach, but he hasn’t been able to take them to a championship game yet. Tech had great breakout season by redshirt freshman WR Michael Crabtree who had 1861 yards and 21 touchdowns. They did get a huge win over Oklahoma, knocking them out of the national title hunt.


Virginia
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Connecticut (9-3)
Worst Loss: Wyoming (5-7)

The Rundown: Virginia had an interesting season, and it’s hard to get a good read on just how good they are. They beat four out of the five bowl teams they played, but also had bad losses to Wyoming and NC State. Also of the nine wins, six were by five or fewer points. All four wins against bowl team were close, including three by a single point each. That makes their worst case record 3-9. The Cavaliers have been getting lucky all season, who knows if that will carry on to the bowl game or not.


The Matchup: I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas Tech wins this game in a walk, or if Virginia wins on a last second field goal. The only thing that would surprise me would be a Virginia blowout.


The Pick: Texas Tech



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Capital One Bowl
Michigan vs. Florida
Orlando, Florida
January 1, 2008
1:00 pm Eastern
ABC


Florida
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Tennessee (9-4)
Worst Loss: Auburn (8-4)

The Rundown: Florida followed up its National Championship with another winning season. The only team that really beat them all season was Georgia. The losses to Auburn and LSU were both close games. The Gators didn’t really get an elite win except for Tennessee, but QB Tim Tebow did win the Heisman trophy.


Michigan
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Illinois (9-3)
Worst Loss: Appalachian State (FCS)

The Rundown: Michigan was a preseason contender for the national title, but an opening day loss to FCS member Appalachian State killed that dream. The next week they were lit up by Oregon as they still didn’t have any answer to the spread offense. Then they ripped off an eight game winning streak before losing the last two games. The disappointing season led to head coach Lloyd Carr turning in his resignation. They hired former West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez to replace Carr.


The Matchup: This could be one of the most lopsided bowl games of the entire season. The team on Michigan’s schedule that most resembles Florida was Oregon. Oregon won that game 39-7 at the Big House. Now Michigan won’t have home field advantage or their head coach. Expect Florida to win without any problems.


The Pick: Florida



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Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Illinois vs. USC
Pasadena, California
January 1, 2008
4:30 pm Eastern
ABC


Illinois
Record: 9-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 5-2
Best Win: Ohio State (11-1)
Worst Loss: Iowa (6-6)

The Rundown: Illinois had a gigantic turnaround with a seven game improvement over last season. They went from 2-10 a year ago to 9-3 and a BCS bowl berth. The Illini were a questionable recipient of a BCS bid, but the powers that be wanted to have the traditional Pac 10 – Big Ten matchup in the Rose Bowl. Illinois’ best win was obviously against Ohio State to become the only team to defeat the Buckeyes in the regular season. They beat five bowl teams total, but three of them were by a touchdown or less. The three losses were close by a combined total of 20 points.


USC
Record: 10-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-1
Best Win: Arizona State (10-2)
Worst Loss: Stanford (4-8)

The Rundown: USC did win ten games and won the conference, but as one of the most talented teams in the country anything other than playing in the National Championship game has to be a disappointment. USC was victim to one of the worst losses of the season when they were beat at home by a Stanford team that finished with four wins. The Stanford loss was by a single point, and the other loss was at Oregon by a touchdown. While not necessarily their fault, the Trojans played a relatively soft schedule. They only played three teams with winning records, going 2-1 in those games. Road games to Notre Dame and Nebraska looked much more interesting in the preseason than they turned out to be. The offense and the defense put up similar numbers to last season, which explains the similar results.


The Matchup: Regardless of how much improved Illinois is this season, I’m still a little skeptical of Ron Zook as a head coach. I have a hard time believing he will be able to match wits against Pete Carroll on the opposite sideline. I know that USC has had its struggles this season, but I fell confident they will make a strong showing in the bowl game.


The Pick: USC



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Allstate Sugar Bowl
Hawaii vs. Georgia
New Orleans, Louisiana
January 1, 2008
8:30 pm Eastern
FOX


Hawaii
Record: 12-0 (8-0)
Record against bowl teams: 3-0
Best Win: Boise State (10-2)
Worst Loss: N/A

The Rundown: Hawaii is the second straight WAC team to finish undefeated and break into the BCS but not play for a national title. I’m still amazed that a two-loss team will play for it all instead of an unbeaten team. The Warriors did have problems with a soft non-conference schedule and winning five close games. The OOC include two FCS teams, a two-win team (UNLV), and a four-win team (Washington). They were also pushed to overtime by two 5-7 teams, although both were on the road. Hawaii finished 3-0 against bowl teams including an impressive win over ten-win Boise State. The Warriors again had one of the top offenses in the nation and were led by Heisman candidate QB Colt Brennan.


Georgia
Record: 10-2 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 6-1
Best Win: Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: South Carolina (6-6)

The Rundown: Georgia had great season with double digit wins, but were arguably overrated for certain reasons. Everyone seems to forget about the Bulldogs problems on the road. They needed overtime to beat Alabama (6-6), lost by three touchdowns to Tennessee, and only beat Vanderbilt (5-7) by a field goal. The only good road win was against instate rival Georgia Tech, who they beat 31-17. Couple the road issues with a loss at home to a mediocre South Carolina (6-6) team, and you have to wonder how good this team is. The Bulldogs did finish strong, winning their last five games against teams that finished with winning records. The only two really good wins they picked up were against Florida on a neutral site and Auburn at home.


The Matchup: Probably the most intriguing bowl game of the season is the Sugar Bowl. Hawaii hasn’t played an opponent of Georgia’s caliber yet this season, but they haven’t lost yet either. With Utah and Boise State winning BCS bowls previously, Hawaii is looking to be the latest non-BCS team to finish undefeated. Georgia is playing very well lately too and can’t be discounted. It will be interesting to see how well their defense can contain the high octane Hawaii passing attack. Hopefully this game doesn’t disappoint the high expectations I have for it.


The Pick: Hawaii

Bowl Picks for December 26-30

Motor City Bowl
Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Detroit, Michigan
December 26
7:30 pm Eastern
ESPN


Purdue
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 1-5
Best Win: Central Michigan (8-5)
Worst Loss: Indiana (7-5)

The Rundown: Purdue had a veteran, experienced team this season and could have been a surprise team In the Big Ten. Instead, the Boilermakers struggled against good teams and did just enough to get to a bowl game. Interestingly, the only bowl team that Purdue beat is the same Central Michigan team they are facing in the bowl game. The offense was much improved behind QB Curtis Painter and a talented receiving corps, and it averaged almost a touchdown more per game than last season. Purdue had climbed all the way to a 7-2 record before losing the last three games, including to Indiana on a last second field goal.


Central Michigan
Record: 8-5 (6-1)
Record against bowl teams: 1-3
Best Win: Ball State (7-5)
Worst Loss: North Dakota State (FCS)

The Rundown: Central Michigan was a dominant team in conference play with their only loss was by a field goal after they had already locked up the MAC West. Unfortunately the OOC was a completely different story. Other than a win against Army, they were blown out in the other four games. Kansas, Purdue, Clemson, and FCS-member North Dakota State all beat Central Michigan convincingly with a combined score of 211-57. The Chippewas are led by first year head coach Butch Jones, the former West Virginia WR coach and previously the OC for Central Michigan.


The Matchup: This game was already played once this season on September 15. Purdue won it easily with a final score of 45-22. Both teams have continued to play at the same level as they did on that game, so the only difference is that now it will be on a neutral field instead of Purdue having the home field advantage. That won’t be enough to change the outcome.


The Pick: Purdue



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Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Arizona State vs. Texas
San Diego, California
December 27
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN


Arizona State
Record: 10-2 (7-2)
Record against bowl teams: 4-2
Best Win: Oregon State (8-4)
Worst Loss: Oregon (8-4)

The Rundown: Arizona State had a huge year, winning 10 games under new head coach Dennis Erickson. The Sun Devils won their first eight games, including victories over bowl teams Colorado, Oregon State and California. The first loss came on the road against an Oregon team with a healthy Dennis Dixon. The other loss came against USC that almost completely knocked them out of the Pac 10 title race. While Arizona State did beat four bowl teams, three of them finished with 6-6 records, and three of them were at home. Both times they faced a top tier team, they were beaten soundly. Arizona State did a great job at winning all of the games they were supposed to, but they weren’t able to capture an elite win this season.


Texas
Record: 9-3 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 4-2
Best Wins: Texas Tech (8-4) and UCF (10-3)
Worst Loss: Kansas State (5-7)

The Rundown: Texas had another good season, but couldn’t do enough to win the Big 12 South. Texas lost to Kansas State and Texas A&M both for the second straight year, even though the Longhorns appeared to be the better team. Throw in a loss in the Red River Rivalry, and Texas finished with just a 5-3 record in conference. Texas did score a couple of good non-conference wins against UCF and TCU.


The Matchup: This game is often considered the first major bowl of the season, since it is usually the first to have two ranked teams participate in it. This year’s matchup should not disappoint. Arizona State won 10 games, but none against the caliber of opponent that Texas is. Texas has struggled at times this season, but I expect them to show up strong in the bowl game.


The Pick: Texas



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Champs Sports Bowl
Boston College vs. Michigan State
Orlando, Florida
December 28
5:00 pm Eastern
ESPN


Boston College
Record: 10-3 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 5-3
Best Win: Virginia Tech (11-2)
Worst Loss: Maryland (6-6)

The Rundown: Boston College started off really hot, winning the first eight games and Matt Ryan garnered a lot of Heisman attention. First year head coach Jeff Jagodzinski was able to continue the success that former coach Tom O’Brien was able to build there. BC ended up losing the ACC Championship game to Virginia Tech, splitting the season series with them. Along with beating Virginia Tech, the Eagles also had good wins against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Bowling Green, and Clemson. BC’s two losses in the season were to bowl teams, albeit mediocre ones in Florida State and Maryland.


Michigan State
Record: 7-5 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Win: Penn State (8-4)
Worst Loss: Northwestern (6-6)

The Rundown: Michigan State is also breaking in a new head coach in Mark Dantonio. Michigan State was competitive in every game they played, never losing a game by more than a touchdown. Also two of those losses were in overtime. Michigan State was the highest scoring team in the Big Ten this season and improved on their points scored by almost nine per game since last season.


The Matchup: Boston College has the nation’s best rush defense and will be going up against a power rush team. Michigan State has a good running game, but it will definitely have its problems in this game. Boston College should be able to win this game by forcing to the Spartans to have to beat them through the air.


The Pick: Boston College



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Texas Bowl
TCU vs. Houston
Houston, Texas
December 28
8:00 pm Eastern
NFL Network


TCU
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 1-4
Best Win: New Mexico (8-4)
Worst Loss: Wyoming (5-7)

The Rundown: TCU had a lot of preseason hype and started out well with a shutout victory against Baylor. Unfortunately, they lost the next two games and could never put more than two wins in a row. Other than the Texas game, TCU was never beaten by more than a touchdown. The Horned Frogs only picked up one quality win all season, a 37-0 shutout against 8-4 New Mexico. They didn’t beat another team with a winning record. TCU did finish 16th in the nation in total defense, but only third in the conference behind BYU and New Mexico.


Houston
Record: 8-4 (6-2)
Record against bowl teams: 0-4
Best Win: Tulane (4-8)
Worst Loss: East Carolina (7-5)

The Rundown: A quick look at Houston’s 8-4 record makes me think that they are a pretty good team. A closer look makes me wonder how good they actually are. While they did get eight wins, none of those games came against an opponent who won more than four games. It’s never a good sign when your two best wins are against Tulane and UTEP. The four losses came to bowl teams, and two of them were close games to East Carolina and Alabama. They had a chance to clinch the C-USA West title, but were blown out by Tulsa 56-7. Houston’s head coach Art Briles left after the regular season, taking over at Baylor.


The Matchup: I would have more faith in Houston if they still had Briles on the sideline, or if they had shown the capability to beat a good team. The game will be played in Houston, but the home field advantage will be minimal. I expect this to be a close game with TCU coming out on top.


The Pick: TCU



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Emerald Bowl
Maryland vs. Oregon State
San Francisco, California
December 28
8:30 pm Eastern
ESPN


Maryland
Record: 6-6 (3-5)
Record against bowl teams: 3-5
Best Win: Boston College (10-3)
Worst Loss: North Carolina (4-8)

The Rundown: Maryland was a very average team this season, not doing anything to stand out either positively or negatively. They had one really good win against Boston College and one bad loss against North Carolina. Both of those games were decided by a score. They beat a couple of 7-5 teams and lost to five bowl teams.


Oregon State
Record: 8-4 (6-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Oregon (8-4)
Worst Loss: UCLA (6-6)

The Rundown: Oregon State started off a little slow out of the gate with a 2-3 record, but finished strong winning six of the last seven. While they were beaten badly at home by UCLA, the other three losses were on the road to teams that won nine or ten games. Good victories include winning at California when they were ranked #2 in the country, at #17 Oregon, and Utah.


The Matchup: This game appears to be a mismatch with Oregon State being the much better team. Maryland will also be traveling all the way across the country and may not have many fans in attendance. I think the Terps may be able to keep it close, but the Beavers should get the win.


The Pick: Oregon State



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Meineke Car Care Bowl
Connecticut vs. Wake Forest
Charlotte, North Carolina
December 29
1:00 pm Eastern
ESPN


Connecticut
Record: 9-3 (5-2)
Record against bowl teams: 2-3
Best Win: South Florida (9-3)
Worst Loss: Virginia (9-3)

The Rundown: Connecticut was one of the biggest surprises this year; they won nine games and had a chance at the Big East title. The Huskies lost only one game in their first nine games, and that was by a single point on the road to a nine-win Virginia team. Along the way they picked up good wins against South Florida, Rutgers, and Louisville. Connecticut was beaten soundly in the other two losses, but it was against really good teams on the road. The loss against West Virginia was the game that decided the Big East race.


Wake Forest
Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Record against bowl teams: 3-3
Best Win: Florida State (7-5)
Worst Loss: Nebraska (5-7)

The Rundown: Wake Forest lost the first two games of the season, but the ripped off a six game winning streak before splitting the last four games. Wake never picked up an elite win, but still beat three bowl teams and only had one bad loss. Only Clemson was able to blow out Wake Forest, the other three losses were by ten or fewer points.


The Matchup: Connecticut won a lot of games, but never beat a good team on the road. Since this game is almost a home team for Wake Forest, the Huskies may have some trouble. Also Jim Grobe is still one of the best coaches in the country, so the Demon Deacons get the nod.


The Pick: Wake Forest



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AutoZone Liberty Bowl
UCF vs. Mississippi State
Memphis, Tennessee
December 29
4:30 pm Eastern
ESPN


UCF
Record: 10-3 (7-1)
Record against bowl teams: 4-3
Best Wins: Tulsa (9-4) twice
Worst Loss: East Carolina (7-5)

The Rundown: This year UCF is most well known for the huge year that RB Kevin Smith is having. He was the nation’s leading rusher with 2448 yards and 29 rushing TDs. Smith also led the nation in scoring with 180 points (13.85 per game.) UCF beat Tulsa in the C-USA Championship game to give them their first conference championship. UCF never had a bad loss. The only home loss was against Texas by a field goal in their brand new stadium. The other two were on the road against bowl teams East Carolina and South Florida.


Mississippi State
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Auburn (8-4)
Worst Loss: South Carolina (6-6)

The Rundown: Sylvester Croom has finally turned Mississippi State around and brought them to their first bowl game since 2000. Along the way they beat Kentucky and Alabama when they were ranked and had another good win against Auburn. The Bulldogs struggled all year on offense and finished in the bottom ten in total offense. The defense was able to keep them in the games that they won.


The Matchup: The UCF offensive machine is firing on all cylinders, and even a strong Mississippi State defense isn’t going to be able to stop it. UCF also has an underrated defense, which should give fits to the Bulldogs anemic offense. This game could be a statement win for how far the UCF program has come in a short amount of time.


The Pick: UCF



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Valero Alamo Bowl
Penn State vs. Texas A&M
San Antonio, Texas
December 29
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN


Penn State
Record: 8-4 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Wisconsin (9-3)
Worst Loss: Michigan State (7-5)

The Rundown: Penn State was a great team at home and a mediocre one on the road. The only road games they won were against Indiana by five points and Temple. They lost to Michigan, Illinois, and Michigan State on the road. They went 6-1 at home, with the only loss coming against Ohio State. They were able to knock off Purdue and Wisconsin at home.


Texas A&M
Record: 7-5 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-4
Best Win: Texas (9-3)
Worst Loss: Miami (5-7)

The Rundown: Texas A&M is in transition as head coach Dennis Franchione resigned after a tumultuous five year tenure. The defensive coordinator Gary Darnell will coach them in the bowl game. Former Green Bay Packers head coach Mike Sherman was hired to take over just three days after Franchione resigned. Sherman previously was an offensive line coach at A&M. The Aggies beat Texas for the second straight year, but the next best win was a triple-overtime thriller against Fresno State. A&M continued lose against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, and they also lost to Miami in a very down year.


The Matchup: Texas A&M has been a big soap opera for the past couple of months. Penn State isn’t a great team, but definitely hasn’t had to deal with any of the same drama. The more focused team gets the pick.


The Pick: Penn State



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PetroSun Independence Bowl
Alabama vs. Colorado
Shreveport, Louisiana
December 30
8:00 pm Eastern
ESPN


Alabama
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 3-5
Best Win: Tennessee (9-4)
Worst Loss: Louisiana Monroe (6-6)

The Rundown: Alabama came into this season with the highest paid coach and grand expectations. Instead they barely finished with a .500 record and are headed to the same bowl game as they went to last year. Lowlights of the season included four consecutive losses to end the season and losing to instate rival Auburn for the sixth straight season. The Tide did pick up a good win against Tennessee, and none of the six losses were by more than touchdown. That’s a good sign for next season, but they still have to play Colorado in the bowl game.


Colorado
Record: 6-6 (4-4)
Record against bowl teams: 2-4
Best Win: Oklahoma (11-2)
Worst Loss: Iowa State (3-9)

The Rundown: Head coach Dan Hawkins and Colorado hit rock bottom last year and are crawling their way back up to the top of the Big 12 North. The Buffaloes were up and down all season, impossible to predict each week. They had great wins against Oklahoma at home and on the road against Texas Tech. They also were beat by Iowa State and Kansas State, and were blown out at home by Missouri. Keep your eye on LB Jordon Dizon, an exciting defender who should be all over the field making plays.


The Matchup: This should be a good game and could go either way. Both teams are led by elite coaches who are trying to reestablish winning traditions at programs that are in rebuilding mode. Colorado has more to prove, while Alabama was hoping for a better bowl game. In a close matchup, that might be enough to swing the vote in favor of the Buffaloes.


The Pick: Colorado