2009 Mountain West Preview

The Favorite: TCU didn't get nearly enough credit for what was accomplished last season, but this season is a great opportunity to earn more national attention. Last season the defense was the second best in the country, holding 12 of 13 opponents to 16 points or fewer. While Oklahoma beat them handily, TCU was still able to limit them to only 25 rushing yards. This year the schedule works out nicely with the toughest games against Clemson and BYU on the road, and Utah at home. None of those are going to be easy, but all are very winnable. TCU has a good shot at going unbeaten and making to a BCS bowl game.

The Challenger: BYU gets the nod over Utah here, because I don't think the Utes can reload that fast. BYU does have some concerns, such as a lack of experience at the offensive line and wide receiver positions. The defense should be improved, and they host the other contenders Utah and TCU. They have a great non-conference schedule with Oklahoma in Arlington for the opener, going to Tulane for a very obvious trap game, and then hosting Florida State.

The Sleeper: San Diego State could surprise some this season. With new head coach Brady Hoke and new defensive coordinator Rocky Long (who knows the conference as well as anyone), the Aztecs may be able to get turned around quickly. Also, the schedule sets up very well. They play Southern Utah, Idaho, and New Mexico State in the first five weeks, and could easily be 3-2 headed into the rest of conference play. I'm not expecting a bowl appearance, but they will probably scare a few of teams along the way.

The Letdown: Colorado State was able to exceed all expectations last year by going to and winning a bowl game. I don't think they'll be able to duplicate that success again. The quarterback, the top two running backs, and several defensive starters are gone and will be difficult to replace. Also four of their seven wins last season were by five points or less. This is still a good team, one that is very tough at home, but I think they'll be home for the postseason.

Conference Player of the Year: Max Hall (QB BYU) on offense, Jerry Hughes (DE TCU) on defense.

I Wrote What?: I missed hard on Colorado State, pegging them for a two win season in last year's preview. I also doubted Air Force, but they won eight games including five on the road.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* TCU at Clemson, Sept 26 - TCU's biggest hurdle to an undefeated season. This game will be won in the trenches with both teams sporting nasty d-lines.
* Florida St at BYU, Sept 19 - Huge home game for BYU, can they hang with the Seminoles?
* Utah at Oregon, Sept 19 - Since I already mentioned this game in the Pac-10 preview, here's a fun fact. Utah has won eight straight bowl games, including in each of the last six seasons.
* Colorado St at Colorado, Sept 5 - Last year's game featured back-to-back kickoff returns for touchdowns, the only time I've ever seen that happen.
* BYU vs Oklahoma in Arlington, Sept 5 - The first college football game at the new Cowboys Stadium, it's one of the bigger games in the opening weekend. It would be higher on this list if I thought BYU had a better chance at winning.


Projected Standings:

TCU | 12-0 | 8-0







BYU | 9-3 | 7-1







Utah | 9-3 | 6-2







Air Force | 6-6 | 4-4







UNLV | 6-6 | 4-4







Colorado St | 5-7 | 3-5







New Mexico | 3-9 | 2-6







San Diego St | 4-8 | 1-7







Wyoming | 2-10 | 1-7

2009 Pac-10 Preview

The Favorite: Despite heavy losses to the NFL, USC remains at the top of the conference. In all, 11 players were drafted, eight were from the defensive side, and five were in the first two rounds. There's no way the defense will be as dominant as last season when it held ten opponents to ten points or less including three shut outs. While no team reloads better than USC, I don't think they can make it through the regular season unscathed. Road games against Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame, and Oregon could trip them up. I think USC missed out on a great opportunity to go unbeaten last season, and now they face a much tougher path this season.

The Challenger: I can't decide between Oregon and Cal here, so I'll put both of them. Cal is led by running back Jahvid Best, my preseason pick to win the Doak Walker. I like this Cal team, and they are capable of knocking off USC at home, but I don't think they will be able to strong enough week to week to win the conference. Oregon has a questionable defense and a new head coach, but they do get USC and Cal in Eugene. Props to Oregon for playing series with Boise State and Utah. A series with Tennessee starts up next year.

The Sleeper: Stanford isn't a huge sleeper because they've been slowly headed up in the Jim Harbaugh regime. I do they should be mentioned though, since they should make a return to the postseason for the first time since 2001. If the defense can tighten up more, I think they could win eight games.

The Letdown: Arizona State hasn't had consecutive losing seasons since 1946-1947, so nobody would predict that to happen again, right? I'm thinking that's exactly what will happen. I just don't see much on this team I like, especially on offense. They had a senior veteran quarterback, but still averaged fewer than 23 points per game and were mired in a six game losing streak at one point last season. With other middle-tier teams in the conference on the rise, I think the Sun Devils finish at 5-7 again.

Conference Player of the Year: Jahvid Best (RB Cal) on offense, Taylor Mays (FS USC) on defense.

I Wrote What?: In last year's preview, I though Oregon State was going to be way down in a rebuilding year. All they did was finish 9-4 with wins over USC, Cal, and Pitt in the bowl game.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* USC at Ohio St, Sept 12 - While last year's game at the Coliseum didn't exactly live up to the hype, it should be better this year at the Horseshoe as USC breaks in a new quarterback and most of its defense.
* Oregon at Boise St, Sept 3 - Oregon is looking for revenge from last year, but Boise State hasn't lost a non-bowl game at home since 2001.
* Cincinnati at Oregon St, Sept 19 - I thought this was going to be a great, underrated game when these teams played in 2007. Instead Oregon State turned the ball over seven times in an ugly showing. Both teams are coming off overachieving seasons, and the game should be much better this time around.
* Utah at Oregon, Sept 19 - Utah should be riding a 16-game winning streak when they travel to the unfriendly confines of Autzen stadium.
* UCLA at Tennessee, Sept 12 - I picked Tennessee last year. I'm picking Tennessee this year. Can Neuheisel prove me wrong twice?


Projected Standings:

USC | 11-1 | 8-1







Oregon | 9-3 | 6-3







Cal | 9-3 | 6-3







Arizona | 7-5 | 5-4







Oregon St | 8-4 | 5-4







Stanford | 6-6 | 5-4







UCLA | 6-6 | 4-5







Washington | 4-8 | 3-6







Arizona St | 5-7 | 3-6







Washington St | 1-11 | 0-9

2009 SEC Preview

The Favorite (East): Florida is coming off their second BCS National Championship in the past three years, but still looks as strong as ever. The defense returns all 11 starters, and Tim Tebow will be gunning for his second Heisman. Florida outscored their opponents by an average of 30 points per game last season. They aren't just the favorite to win the SEC, they're the favorite to win another national title. While I don't think they will go undefeated in the regular season, I can't find a game where I would pick against them.

The Favorite (West): Alabama ran away with the West division last season, but don't expect to see that happen again. There will be more challengers this season, but Alabama has the defense and enough offense to fend them off. The schedule works out nicely with a bye week before playing LSU at home and missing Florida and Georgia from the East.

The Challenger (East): Georgia could easily win 10 games this season even though they lost first round draft picks Matt Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. The rest of the division doesn't look that strong, so the Bulldogs are the only other threat to win the East. In fact, I'm predicting only Florida and Georgia in the East will win more than seven games.

The Challenger (West): LSU or Mississippi could go here. LSU will be really good if they can get consistent quarterback play all year out of Jordan Jefferson. Mississippi has to replace the best player on both lines, and might fall victim to all the preseason hype surrounding them. Both Alabama and LSU have to travel to Oxford though.

The Sleeper: Arkansas is headed back up. They lost six conference games last season, but three were by a total of six points. They finished the season with a big win over LSU in Little Rock. This season they bring in new QB Ryan Mallett, who may be the third best quarterback in the conference by the end of the season. They have four road games against the top contenders (Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, LSU.) I don't expect them to lose all of them.

The Letdown: Auburn seems like the only choice here. Everyone seems to think that Auburn will be better this season. While there is still a ton of talent, they made a major downgrade at head coach. If the Tony Franklin offense couldn't catch on in the first season, why would the Gus Malzahn offense be any different? I see another losing season for the Tigers.

Conference Player of the Year: Tim Tebow (QB Florida) is the only option here. On defense, I'll take Eric Berry (S Tennessee) and his 12 interceptions (3 returned for TDs) in two seasons.

I Wrote What?: Yes, the preview says 11-1 for Auburn's predicted record. At least I was right about Florida over Georgia, Tebow not getting his second Heisman, and Mississippi getting a couple of upsets (@Florida, @LSU.)

Non-Conference Games to Watch
* Alabama vs Virginia Tech in Atlanta, Sept 5 - This is how you kick off a season. Don't expect VT to just roll over like Clemson did last year. This should be a much tougher game.
* Georgia at Oklahoma St, Sept 5 - Two teams that are considered very good, but not at the top of their respective conferences. Whoever wins will immediately make that jump in credibility.
* Georgia at Georgia Tech, Nov 28 - If you saw last year's game, I don't need to tell you why to watch.
* South Carolina at NC State, Sept 3 - This game gets bonus points for being the first ESPN game of the season. Last year South Carlina was 7-3 before losing the last three. NC State started 2-6 before winning four straight to get to a bowl game. Who will start this season with momentum?
* UCLA at Tennessee, Sept 12 - You've done a lot of talking this offseason Lane Kiffin. Here's your first chance to back it up.


Projected Standings:
East:

Florida | 12-0 | 8-0







Georgia | 10-2 | 6-2







South Carolina | 7-5 | 4-4







Kentucky | 6-6 | 2-6







Tennessee | 6-6 | 2-6







Vanderbilt | 5-7 | 2-6








West:

Alabama | 11-1 | 7-1







LSU | 10-2 | 6-2







Mississippi | 10-2 | 6-2







Arkansas | 7-5 | 3-5







Auburn | 5-7 | 2-6







Mississippi St | 2-10 | 0-8

2009 Sun Belt Preview

The Favorite: Troy comes in as the prohibitive favorite to win the Sun Belt again. They won the conference last season by leading in both points scored and points allowed. Always a dangerous team, just look at last year's game versus LSU when they had a 31-3 lead in the third quarter. Of course that ended with an epic comeback of LSU scoring 37 unanswered points. While Troy did lose that game, they reminded everyone that they can't be overlooked.

The Challenger: FAU was my favorite to win the conference last season, but a 1-5 start including two conference losses ended those dreams. The loss to MTSU was especially painful, as the Blue Raiders scored on a touchdown pass as time expired. The schedule is easier this time around, now the offense needs to be more crisp and minimize turnovers for them to be a contender.

The Sleeper: Arkansas State could turn some heads again this season with the second best defense and most of the offensive playmakers returning. Beating Texas A&M was huge last year. Now they need to start winning conference games on the road (0-3 last season.)

The Letdown: Louisiana-Lafayette finished with six wins for the third time in the past four seasons. Despite being eligible, they missed the post season again. Louisiana-Lafayette hasn't been bowling since the Grantland Rice Bowl in 1970, and I don't see it happening this year either. Most of their games were high scoring affairs, with only one having fewer than 50 combined points. Now with the top playmakers gone, including the school's all-time leading rusher, the offense will noticeably regress. The defense will have to step up big to prevent them from having a losing season.

Conference Player of the Year: Rusty Smith (QB FAU) puts it all together for his senior season and impresses a few NFL scouts along the way. Brandon Lang (Troy DE) deserves some recognition here too.

I Wrote What?: I was all over the place in last year's preview, predicting that FAU would win nine games and that FIU would only win one. Not my finest work.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Troy at Arkansas, Nov 14 - A late season road game against an SEC opponent. This sounds familiar.
* Mississippi St at MTSU, Oct 17 - MTSU beat Maryland at home last year, and could get another home win against the Bulldogs.
* Arkansas St at Louisville, Oct 31 - Sticking with the theme, Arkansas State knocked off Texas A&M last year, and could do the same to Louisville on Halloween.
* Kansas St at Louisiana-Lafayette, Sept 12 - The two teams played a close game last season in Manhattan. Now in Lafayette, the tables could be turned.
* FAU @ South Carolina, Sept 12 - FAU has a bye week to prepare for South Carolina, while the Gamecocks could overlook a game sandwiched between Georgia and Mississippi.



Troy | 9-3 | 7-1







FAU | 7-5 | 6-2







Arkansas St | 7-5 | 6-2







MTSU | 5-7 | 5-3







FIU | 5-7 | 4-4







Louisiana-Lafayette | 5-7 | 4-4







Louisiana-Monroe | 4-8 | 3-5







North Texas | 1-11 | 1-7







Western Kentucky | 1-11 | 0-8

2009 WAC Preview

The Favorite: Boise State is once again the class of the league and will be favored in every conference game. The non-conference slate does leave a bit to be desired. For a team trying to garner national attention and a BCS at-large invite, playing two MAC schools and an FCS school is not going to help. Going to Tulsa midweek is a tougher game than it will be given credit, but from the national media's perspective, Boise's entire season will be determined when they host Oregon.

The Challenger: Nevada should have one the best and under appreciated offenses this season. While Boise gets all the attention, these teams scored the exact same amount of points last season (489 total, or 37.6 per game.) Nevada is led by a senior QB who had almost 4000 yards of offense and 39 TDs last season and has been running the pistol offense for three seasons now.

The Sleeper: Utah State could be on the way up after hiring Gary Andersen from Utah. I don't think they'll be bowl eligible, especially with playing for the Beehive Boot. The Aggies could pick up an upset or two and show strides of a team on the upswing.

The Letdown: Fresno State will turn some heads by winning at least one of the three games against BCS conference teams (best guess is Wisconsin in the second week), but will not be that big of a factor in conference play. Fresno could easily slide to the middle of the pack in fifth place again, with Hawaii and Louisiana Tech posting better records.

Conference Player of the Year: Colin Kaepernick (QB Nevada) will have the stats, and Kellen Moore (QB Boise State) will have the wins. The senior Kaepernick gets it, but not by much.

I wrote what?: Nothing too awful in last year's preview, as I predicted each team's record within two games. I did have Fresno St finishing second in the conference, when they really ended up in fifth place. Hawaii did prove me wrong by getting to a bowl game despite changing coaches.

Non-conference Games to Watch:
* Oregon at Boise St, Sept 3 (Thursday) - Two Top 25 teams, national TV, opening day of the season, what else could you ask for?
* Missouri at Nevada, Oct 9 - This Friday night game on ESPN gives you an opportunity to see the Nevada pistol offense in action. With Missouri on a downturn and the game in Reno, this matchup will be far closer and a lot more fun than the 69-17 blowout last season.
* Louisiana Tech at Auburn, Sept 5 - Louisiana Tech won last season's opener against Mississippi State. Will it happen again, this time on the road?
* Fresno St at Wisconsin, Sept 12 - As stated previously, the best chance for Fresno to win one of their OOC road games. Fresno probably wins this game last year with a better kicking game (1-4 FGs.)
* Boise St at Tulsa, Oct 14 (Wednesday) - A difficult road trip against another high octane offense. The Broncos better be prepared for this one, or it could derail their BCS bowl hopes.


Projected Standings:

Boise St | 12-1 | 8-0







Nevada | 8-4 | 6-2







Louisiana Tech | 7-5 | 5-3







Hawaii | 7-6 | 5-3







Fresno St | 6-6 | 4-4







San Jose St | 4-8 | 3-5







Utah St | 4-8 | 3-5







Idaho | 2-10 | 2-6







New Mexico St | 1-12 | 0-8